joaquinmonfort Posted November 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2012 EUR/GBP: old trend-line resistance The EUR/GBP pair is pushing up against the underside of an old trend-line on daily chart and would be expected to pull-back from this resistance to perhaps 0.8025, however, bulls are currently winning the battle and there is a possibility of an upside break to resistance at 81.05 and then perhaps the monthly pivot at 81.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2012 GBP/USD: meeting resistance Cable's recovery rally from the middle of the month is close to meeting resistance from a major down-sloping trend-line situated at at around 1.5970. The monthly pivot is also resisting at the current level. The pair will probably fall to support from the trend-line at 1.5910. A break below that would open the way to a much stronger bear move to 1.5825 initially and then probably lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2012 EUR/USD: touching the 50-day MA Eurodollar had reached important resistance on the daily chart from former lows and the 50-day MA at 1.2915 and it will probably back-down. There is a small pattern at the current highs but no other reversal signs yet. For a down-move to gain traction there would have to be a break below the 1.2857 lows which would then target 1.2790. Meanwhile a continuation higher would accelerate above 1.2925 with the next target at 1.3015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 26, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2012 EUR/USD: meeting resistance Eurodollar still looks bullish short term, however, it just met resistance from the monthly pivot and and an old trend-line. There could be a small double top forming which could lead to a pull-back if there is a break of the neckline at 1.2944, targeting 1.2895 near to the 50-day MA. Alternatively a break higher, above 1.3000 could rally to key resistance at 1.3130.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 26, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2012 AUD/USD: resistance/bull flag The aussie has hit strong overhead resistance and whilst it is possible it could break higher and continue its bull trend, we cannot discount the possibility of a weak reaction after the former trend-line retouch. A bearish close today at around 1.0380 would be a very bearish signal. However the bull flag on the hourly chart could indicate further upside, although I would only go long after a break above the 1.0470 highs, targeting the 1.0570 level thereafter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2012 EUR/USD: consolidation phase Eurodollar is moving down but it is still broadly within a range. If it breaks below the 1.2940 lows there is a possibility of a move down to support from the 50-day MA situated at 1.2900. A break above the range highs, however, at 1.3000 could see a move higher, although trend-line resistance at 1.3040 would seriously impede further upside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2012 EUR/USD: technical update Eurodollar has fallen to just above support from the 50-day MA. The daily chart still looks bullish and there is the possibility of a resumption of trend higher. A break above the 1.2945 range highs could lead to a move up to 1.2970. On the hourly chart, however, lower lows and lower highs indicate short term weakness and a decisive break below 1.2900 would be expected to reach 1.2820. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2012 AUD/USD: possible H&S Aussie is looking bearish, with a shooting star planted yesterday and a head and shoulders on the 4-hour. A break below the neckline at 1.0427 would probably target the trend-line and the target for the H&S both at about 1.0375. Alternatively it would probably take a move above 1.0490 to activate bulls, with follow-through to 1.0550/1.0600. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2012 GBP/JPY: topping pattern The GBP/JPY has formed a head and shoulders patterns at the highs and currently looks poised to break down through the neckline. Momentum also looks overbought, lending support to the bearish outlook. The monthly pivot at the neckline, however, offers strong support and the pair would have to decisively break down through it at 130.66 to confirm the reversal, which would then target support at around 129.30. Alternatively if we break above 131.75 then there is the possibility of a rally back up to the 132.60 highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2012 EUR/USD: wave 5 unfolding Eurodollar rebounded yesterday after reaching support from the 50-day MA. It has rallied up to 1.2975 as predicted and it still rising bullishly, possibly in an Elliot 5th wave, which could move slightly higher to resistance highs at 1.3000. After that it may correct back – perhaps as far as 1.2900 again before possibly resuming the overall up-trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2012 EUR/JPY: technical update The EUR/JPY has broken above multi-year trend-line and is bullish overall. A head and shoulders (H&S) top on the hourly chart failed to break down yesterday and instead bounced strongly back up from the neckline to its current level where it is meeting a down-sloping trend-line from the head and the right shoulder. If it breaks above here it will cancel the H&S and lead to a rally higher to 107.40. A break below 106.15 on the other hand could see the H&S still realise its bearish potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2012 EUR/USD: consolidation underway Eurodollar is in an up-trend and there are no signs yet of it stalling. It has broken up above key resistance at 1.3000 and hit 1.3020 temporarily before falling back down to re-touch 1.3000 again, from where it will probably recover. The next level up is 1.3088 followed by 1.3130, with a break above 1.3140/50 marking a significant trend-change. A break below 1.2944 would be necessary for bears to jump on-board, with support at 1.2930. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2012 EUR/NZD: major trend-line break Today the EUR/NZD pair has broke above a long-term trend-line from early 2011 and whilst it may not hold it is worth monitoring as it could develop into a stronger bullish impulse, particularly if it closes strongly tonight, or if it breaks above the peak at 1.6057. Volume is still too low to confirm unfortunately and the Ichimoku chart has not shown a corresponding break above the cloud – rather more resistance - so it might be prudent to wait for more confirmation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2012 EUR/GBP: bearish signs but rising The EUR/GBP pair has pierced marginally back into its old ascending channel although recent daily candlesticks are long-tailed shooting-stars which is bearish. Nevertheless the pair continues to make new highs and lows and isn't oversold. We can't ignore price action and must be on our guard for a possible spell of weakness, with the 50-day MA at 0.8045 providing a probable downside target. However if it goes higher then resistance at 0.8150 forms the next possible upside level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2012 EUR/USD: up-trend continuing Eurodollar is continuing its up-trend. There are no signs yet from the price action that the rally may be finishing or undergoing a reversal. Soft resistance lies at 1.3095 followed by a stronger level at 1.3119. Momentum is diverging, however, and the pair has just reached the weekly pivot so there is the risk of a pull-back, with strong support and a possible target at 1.2890. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2012 USD/JPY: consolidating The USD/JPY pair is in a short-term up-trend which is still rising although it has reached a major resistance level where it has formed a consolidation - or possibly a double top. A break below the 81.60 neckline would give bearish confirmation and target 80.80. Alternatively a decisive break above the 82.85 highs could lead to move up to 83.85 and then possibly the 200-day at 85.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 4, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2012 EUR/USD: key level Eurodollar has reached major resistance from an old trend-line and it could pull-back, although there are no signs of a reversal yet. Nevertheless a move below 1.3045 would probably trigger a sell-off to 1.3000. There is a large inverted H&S pattern on the weekly chart and a break above the 1.3167 could be confirmation of a major bullish break with an upside target of 1.4000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 4, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2012 EUR/GBP: continuation higher The EUR/GBP pair is still in a short-term up-trend and although it has pulled back temporarily there are no signs it will reverse into a bearish down-trend. It will probably recover and move higher to resistance at 0.8161, which is key level, and if broken could lead to a strong move up to 0.8262 and perhaps 0.8582 eventually. Any move down will meet strong support clustered at 0.8065. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 4, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2012 EUR/JPY: consolidating The EUR/JPY pair is in an up-trend after breaking out above a major trend-line and it will probably continue as there are no strong signs of reversal yet. There is a box consolidation pattern at the highs and the RSI is slightly overbought so there may be a pull-back, with a break below the range lows at 106.80 targeting 106.00. Meanwhile a break above the range highs at 107.65 would target 108.50 to the upside.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2012 EUR/USD: correction unfolding Eurodollar has corrected back from a strong resistance level of pivots situated at 1.3120. It has found support at the trend-line at 1.3090. Overall the up-trend is still intact and it will probably recover, with 1.3167 still a key level, which if breached could lead to a strong move higher; however, a break below 1.3050 is a possibility and would open the way to a move down to 1.3000, if the pull-back extends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2012 GBP/USD: head and shoulders Cable is showing a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart which looks like it will probably breakdown. A decisive break below 1.6079 could signal a move down to the price target at 1.6040, although support at 1.6050 could also slow the sell-off. A break above the 1.6118 highs, on the other hand, might negate the H&S and see a covering rally, develop up to old-trend resistance at 1.6140. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2012 GBP/USD: bearish channel break The GBP/USD has fallen heavily from it's recent highs. A down-trend appears to be in play, and will probably continue. The pair has broken out of its ascending channel, yielding a down-target at 1.5972, although there is also support around 1.5990 mark where a consolidation area could form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2012 EUR/USD: triangle forming The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways in a triangle pattern today. It may possibly break to the downside as triangles often precede the final wave in a trend, and a decisive break below 1.2876 would be key in confirming a fall to 1.2825 or even 1.2800. An upside breakout would have to move above 1.2930 to gain traction, with the weekly pivot at 1.2975 targeted thereafter.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2012 GBP/USD: 5th wave rising Cable is rising up in a final 5th Elliot wave, both on the 4-hour chart and also as possibly on the daily. MACD has crossed its signal line bullishly and it will probably rally to initial resistance at 1.6080 and then possibly to the 1.6135 highs. If there is a break below 1.6010, however, then I see the possibility of a rapid decline to 1.5935.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2012 AUD/USD: nearing resistance The aussie is still continuing to rise. It is close to a long-term descending trend-line at 1.0517, which will probably offer tough resistance. The up-trend is showing bearish divergences but price action is still rising in peaks and troughs. It would need a break below the key trend-line at 1.0440 for bearish confirmation, which would then target 1.0355 or possibly even lower.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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