joaquinmonfort Posted November 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 EUR/GBP: bearish indications The EUR/GBP pair looks like it is breaking below its trend-line. A head and shoulders top pattern is also about to break its neckline at the same time increasing the strength of the bearish signal. A decisive move below 0.7975 would confirm a move down to 0.7927 at first and then probably eventually 0.7845. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 EUR/USD: threatening further downside The EUR/USD pair hit resistance from the lower border of the topping pattern on the daily chart. It rolled -over and quickly fell to support at 1.2795. The topping pattern and trend-line resistances make the outlook bearish and a break below 1.2762 could mark the beginning of a major move lower with a first target at 1.2630. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 8, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2012 EUR/USD: breaking lower The EUR/USD pair has broken down below the key 1.2762 lows and is now swiftly moving down. It will probably continue to go lower until it hits the next target at the 100-day MA at 1.2630, with more support also at 1.2600. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 8, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2012 EUR/JPY: bounce possible The EUR/JPY could bounce from its present location on the 50-day MA. The first upside target would be the range highs at 102.20. A move lower is eventually probable, however, given Monday's major trend-line break – which created a price objective of 100.70 – although the remainder of the expected sell-off could come after the bounce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 8, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2012 GBP/USD: rebounding probably The GBP/USD has bounced off a strong support and resistance level, is forming a hammer candlestick today and will probably rally up to resistance situated at the trend-line around the 1.6080 level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2012 EUR/USD: technical analysis EUR/USD has resumed its down-trend. It has reached a major long-term support and resistance line at 1.2745 which is blocking further downside. A box pattern is now forming on the hourly chart and the price has reached the bottom of this range with expectations that it will bounce back up to the range highs at 1.2770 perhaps. A decisive break below 1.2705, however, would indicate a continuation down to the next target at 1.2630. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2012 EUR/GBP: break confirmed The EUR/GBP pair has now confirmed its break of trend-line with an eventual target at 0.7825. It has also broken below the neckline of the head & shoulders and is forming a shooting-star candle today, which could indicate further downside to come. A break below 0.7959 would help confirm a move to 0.7925 perhaps. A move above 0.8000, however, would negate the bearish outlook and might trigger a rally to 0.8040. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2012 EUR/USD: technical analysis Eurodollar is in a down-trend which will probably continue until it reaches a cluster of support at 1.2635. There may be a bounce first however as it has just reached support from a major channel-line with a bounce possible, perhaps to the trend-line at 1.2755. An eventual downside target for the breakout of the price pattern of the highs is 1.2505. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2012 GBP/USD: meeting trend-line support The GBP/USD pair has just reached support from a major trend-line and the 100-day MA. It will probably make a small recovery, although the price action is not showing any bullishness yet; if it does, it would be expected to reach resistance at 1.5955. On the downside, a move below 1.5835 would confirm a break of the trend-line, with an eventual target of 1.5750. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2012 USD/JPY: technical analysis The rally faltered and has pulled-back. It could fall a little further to the trend-line at 78.95, or there is a chance of a rebound after yesterday's hammer candlestick. On the hourly chart there is a possible head & shoulders pattern forming with a break above the neckline at 79.60 confirming upside and leading to a rally up to major trend-line resistance at around 80.15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2012 Gold: probably rising Gold has been rising and it will probably continue higher to complete the wave-sequence until it eventually reaches the previous highs at 1795.50. The hourly chart is currently showing a double-bottom which could lead to an immediate move up to 1731. Alternatively the current temporary pull-back could continue lower, returning to the consolidation zone in the 1717s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2012 GBP/USD: rebound underway Cable has bounced off the long-term trend-line reached yesterday and has started to rise. It may pull-back from its current level temporarily perhaps down to 1.5885 but then it will probably continue rising until it reaches trend-line resistance at 1.5955 and then roll-over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2012 EUR/USD: bounce possible Eurodollar may be bottoming temporarily after the price formed an inverted head & shoulders and broke above its neckline and the trend-line. It could reach the upside target for the pattern at 1.2800, although there may be a re-test of the neckline at 1.2733 first. A break below 1.2685 would be necessary to signal a resumption of the bearish trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2012 EUR/JPY: spiking higher The EUR/JPY pair has spiked higher today and seems to be continuing the recent consolidation pattern. Further upside could be capped by resistance at the level of previous trend-line situated at around 102.60. If it rolls-over or corrects back down then perhaps it could find support at the 50-day MA at 101.80 followed perhaps by 101.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2012 EUR/GBP: meeting key resistence It is possible EUR/GBP could rise higher despite the heavy resistance from an old trendline and the monthly pivot both situated above at 0.8045. A decisive break clearly above this level – perhaps of 0.8060 – might be required to confirm a bullish recovery back into the channel, with 0.8115 targeted. Alternatively the pair could be poised for a rebound lower and a continuation down to around 0.7950. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 15, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2012 USD/JPY: rallying The USD/JPY has broken above a major multi-month trend-line signalling the possibility of the dawning of a new up-trend. It looks a little stretched now and has just reached the upper channel-line of the rally so it could pull-back temporarily although there are no signs yet. Nevertheless, if it does then it will probably find support at 80.80. After that it is possible the up-trend will resume and go as far as the grouping of monthly pivots offering resistance at 81.20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2012 EUR/USD: more downside Eurodollar has renewed its down-move and it will probably fall to a grouping of support at around the 1.2640 level as it continues to tumble towards its longer-term target at 1.2505. There is a possibility of a temporary bounce first, however, reaching resistance at 1.2753 - the 38.2% fib line or the 50% at 1.2763, before rolling over and continuing down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2012 EUR/USD: technical analysis The recovery rally has hit resistance from a trend-line at recent highs and the down-trend could resume, however, rising volume indicates continued bullishness as well. A break above the trend-line and the monthly pivot at 1.2793 would yield an upside target of 1.2860-80. Alternatively if it holds then a move below the last trough at 1.2751 could continue to support at 1.2725. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2012 GBP/USD: finding support Cable is showing a possible bottoming pattern on the 4-hour chart at the level of a major trend-line and this could signal a rebound. A break above 1.5930 could open the way to an up-move although heavy resistance from trend-line and pivot at 1.5955 could impede it reaching the target at 1.6005. A break below 1.5850 could get bears on board for a possible move down to 1.5780. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2012 EUR/USD: pushing higher Eurodollar is consolidating after yesterday's break above the inverted H&S's neckline. It will probably move up to 1.2875 resistance now – or full-fill the H&S's target at 1.2918. The lack of follow-through it a bit disconcerting so prepare for sudden weakness taking bulls by surprise, and an opportunity to go short below 1.2715 as it will probably lead to a quick run down to 1.2635. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2012 AUD/USD: bearish bias The aussie has re-touched the underside of an old trend-line and is consolidating in a price pattern. It will probably be resisted and break to the downside. Rates will probably fall to the 50-day MA at 1.0362. Alternatively the consolidation may play out longer with a move back up to the top of the range highs at 1.0420 possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2012 USD/JPY: signs of exhaustion The USD/JPY pair is looking quite over-extended and will probably fall. MACD and RSI are overbought on all time-frames and there are other signs of exhaustion including a break out of the channel and a triangle preceding the final rally. Whilst a final push up to 81.90 is a possibility there will probably eventually be retrace at first to support at 80.58 and then maybe 80.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 21, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2012 EUR/USD: rangebound This morning's bullish rally has hit resistance from the monthly pivot and formed a tweezer-top reversal candlestick pattern on the 15min chart. It will probably eventually fall again and re-touch the 1.2740 lows although a rebound after that is possible. On longer time-frames the pair is going sideways between lows of 1.2725 and highs at 1.2820. [img]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dlbuD_bzkow/UKyqhFBaqsI/AAAAAAAAC14/DN0o1DxCU90/s512/EURUSD21.png?gl=US[/img] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 21, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2012 EUR/JPY: bullish breakout The EUR/JPY has broken out of a major trend-line stretching back several years and long-term I'm bullish. It has just reached the monthly pivot at 105.42 and there is the possibility the rally may stall here, although there are no reversal signals yet. The pair could break higher and aim for the next stop up at 107.39 or it could correct back with support at 105.00 targeted initially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2012 EUR/USD: possible double top Eurodollar could move lower as there is a double top on the hourly chart. There is also resistance from the upper line of the channel, although volume is atypically strong on the left shoulder. If price breaks below the neckline at 1.2833 it will probably reach the target at 1.2798. Eventually the pair could recover and rise to the target for the inverted H&S at 1.2915 close to the 50-day MA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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