peldoman Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 GBP news is over... their is a buy trade in gbp/usd 15 min Tf... i have open buy trade at 1.6539.. lets c LOL !! for me 1.6541 on tf1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peldoman Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 I,am out, hit my SL ,lost 24 pips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psaini1973 Posted August 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 GBP news is over... their is a buy trade in gbp/usd 15 min Tf... i have open buy trade at 1.6539.. lets c SL hit, Loss of $390.. shld have stuck to 5 min TF... leason learnt... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanrayman Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 hehehehe seems everybody's out today~.. out with a 39pip hihihi.. selling e/u now~ had a +25 just now.. but reversed hihihihi... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peldoman Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 28 pips profit on e/u , but not with pip-accumulator. lol!! i don,t think it,s a good system, went back to my own bread and butter system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psaini1973 Posted August 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) 28 pips profit on e/u , but not with pip-accumulator. lol!! i don,t think it,s a good system, went back to my own bread and butter system. Dear peldoman.. i respect ur views n decision.. choppy mkt. can destroy any system... Right now closed eur/usd sell trade for $300 and eur/jpy for $118.... the system is working fine. anybody can have a bad day.... IF u eliminate the gbp/usd trade (loss of $390) which i took on 15 min TF as it was indiscipline on my part, i shld have followed 5 Min TF only , i am sitting on a good profit of $175+ $300+$118 = $583.... if u include that loss trade also my net TP is $173 On a 5 min TF its worth... just my 2 cents Edited August 18, 2011 by psaini1973 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peldoman Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 I don,t take my conclusion for just one trade. I play with it for 2 days now and made 7 trades 2 in profit and 5 i loss. Maybe if it,s educated it will gives better signals, but for now i believe it,s not work proppery.Dear peldoman.. i respect ur views n decision.. choppy mkt. can destroy any system... Right now closed eur/usd sell trade for $300 and eur/jpy for $118.... the system is working fine. anybody can have a bad day.... IF u eliminate the gbp/usd trade (loss of $390) which i took on 15 min TF as it was indiscipline on my part, i shld have followed 5 Min TF only , i am sitting on a good profit of $175+ $300+$118 = $583.... if u include that loss trade also my net TP is $173 On a 5 min TF its worth... just my 2 cents Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanrayman Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 Dear peldoman.. i respect ur views n decision.. choppy mkt. can destroy any system... Right now closed eur/usd sell trade for $300 and eur/jpy for $118.... the system is working fine. anybody can have a bad day.... IF u eliminate the gbp/usd trade (loss of $390) which i took on 15 min TF as it was indiscipline on my part, i shld have followed 5 Min TF only , i am sitting on a good profit of $175+ $300+$118 = $583.... if u include that loss trade also my net TP is $173 On a 5 min TF its worth... just my 2 cents right on brother (with a hulk hogan accent) =D i am doing excellent with this.. just trade on e/u only.. no other pairs.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndyKator Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 Hi soundfx, I'll help where I can with the debugging and system development. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alansim Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 Where got PERFECT Forex / Stock market system...IF there is...EVERYONE would be RICH ! Then who is going to work outside ? :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 Hi Guys, Thanks for all your offers of help - much appreciated, I think we can make something good out of this :) I'll post the indi here in a the next few hours - just a couple more things I want to see if I can fix first. wanrayman, peterpiak and psaini1973 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanrayman Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 thanks soundfx~ anyways.. i caught the e/u move just now.. banked in a nice 60 pips.. and now im buying~ more than covered my loss just now.. hihihihi~ p.s i do have to keep changing timeframes for the boxes to appear.. hmmmm Danny 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psaini1973 Posted August 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) Wanrayman you have discovered the pulse of this system... Good Going frnd... :) I have a buy stop of EUR/USD at 1.4341 TP is 20 pip its already 9:30 PM here and more than 9 Hr of gazing at pc... i ll put the TP and SL and move on...my order will expire in abt one hour if not activated Edited August 18, 2011 by psaini1973 Danny and wanrayman 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) Nicely done wanrayman :) Ok - here's the indicator source with a document which explains how I've done the calculations: http://www.multiupload.com/QVRCBM6JXZ Note that the latest version of the indicator is in post 66 (don't use this indi. for live trading - it's still being developed). When you start to compare the indicator settings between the II indicator and the original and then look at the actual indicators (all indicators are standard MT4 ones) you'll see some strange things. For example, I take signals from MA's in a very simple way - I just look at the last close price and see if it's above or below the MA. If above then we have a long bias and flag is set to 1, if below then we have a short bias and flag is set to -1. I'm not sure how they're measuring the MAs, though some of their values make no sense to me. Sometimes MAs are shown as 0 values - which must mean that under certain conditions (e.g. candle crosses the MA?) that the flag is undetermined, however sometimes price has been clearly going down along with the MA and their MA flag setting is showing 1 for bullish bias! All very odd and this is what I'm looking for help with. Until we're happy with our individual indicator settings then we can't move on to determine a decent master probability. Note that because the original system seems to be quite buggy, it may be that some of their indicator settings are just plain wrong. So, it's worth bearing in mind that what we have now, may be better than their system lol - to check this you'll need to compare master probability signals from each and see which would give the best entries. I think most of the code bugs should be ironed out now, though coders feel free to fix any other bugs you see and repost the fixed version. When looking at the original indicator if you change the font to "Arial" rather than "Ariel" and sfont_size to 8 then the indicator flags should be slightly easier to read. I've just noticed that indicators are changing in the original with new ticks rather than just at closed candles. I'm not sure if this is a good idea or not - and something else to test. Edited August 19, 2011 by soundfx Sesshoumaru, campbell005, fxPCNetwork and 14 others 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psaini1973 Posted August 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 Thanks soundfx 4 the great work.... i ll check tomorrow and let u know.... thanks once again soundfx 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) Hi Guys, Here's something else to ponder over. I've been trying to work out exactly how the weightings are applied in the probability calculation because I'm pretty sure that my first attempt isn't correct (regardless of some of the indicator flags being different). I've looked at 3 different scenarios from the 1M chart where master probability was 48, 13 and 60 and have put these into a spreadsheet to try and work out how the master prob. is calculated. This again doesn't make sense to me as I can't seem to see the right sort of differences to relate to 48, 13 and 68. For example there should be some intermediate calculated values which in the MP=60 example are just over 5 times more than those in the MP=13 example. Of course it's possible that the probability calc. isn't just straightforward weighting or possibly that the flags shown on the screen aren't always what's fed into the calculation (because of program bugs?). Anyway, for anyone who likes a puzzle, here are my calculations. There will be other means of caculating these weightings so you'll need to experiment with the numbers: http://www.multiupload.com/QDJ1J6QDSZ Another thing worth doing is putting the original indicator on a 1M chart - turn auto scroll off and scroll back to a clear bit of screen then watch the Master Probability changing and take screenshots so that you can compare the effect of flags changing from 1 to -1 etc. on the Master Probability which should give some clues. I've also added a parameter to the indicator to specify whether in runs in "tick update" mode or not. This is currently set to "true", so that the indicator values will update in real time as in the original: http://www.multiupload.com/I419J34F7E Edited August 18, 2011 by soundfx Changed link for indicator to reflect latest version dhinesh89, Sesshoumaru, guedesjunior25 and 7 others 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peldoman Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 You are doing good soundfx, good to see traders want to help eachother. Only my IQ is a little to low for this investigation, hope you don,t mind! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted August 18, 2011 Report Share Posted August 18, 2011 Hi peldoman, The probability calculation bit is tricky lol. It's doing my head in at the moment. I've established that the current timeframe being viewed has an impact on the probabilities - you can see this from flicking between M1 and M5, and as both reference only M1, M5, M15 and M30, if the timeframe on the chart had no impact then, we would expect to see the same probability. However, this doesn't rule out that the timeframe weightings could also be used individually against each of the M1, M5, M15 and M30 indicator flag values. At the moment ignore the probability setting in the indicator I created. We need to concentrate on getting the flags correct first. I noticed a bug in the SAR calculation which is now fixed and I've also adjusted the Stochs rules as follows: Stoch Main > 65 set to -1 Stoch Main < 35 set to 1 Otherwise Stoch main will be set to 0 I've also adjusted the RSI rules to use 65 and 35 too. Updated indicator link is a couple of posts back. Now I'm getting a good match for MACD, RSI, SAR and Stochs which just leaves the MAs to sort out. Their numbers are totally odd, have a look at this chart.... http://i56.tinypic.com/jsy148.jpg As you can see, this is a 1M chart and the MA flags for 1M are: SMA1: -1 EMA1: -1 EMA2: 1 Why on earth is EMA2 showing as 1? All MAs are pointing down the same way and the trend is clearly down. Note that this isn't just a one-off, I've seen similar odd readings for the other MAs too in various timeframes. Also as I metioned somewhere, occasionally we'll also see that the MA flags are set to 0 and it's not clear to me why they're "undetermined" like this. I've started to see some use in the additional indicator in the bottom window - though not in the horrible way they have it presented (well - it looks great, but it's impossible to read lol). The problem that we have is that we don't know what the master probability was at a given point in history which makes manual backtesting impossible as the probability is a key part of the entry criteria. Provided that we can establish a reliable value for the master probability then I'll create an indicator - probably like MACD histogram which will show probabilities above and below a zero line for more detailed backtesting. One of the reasons I'm cracking ahead with this investigation is that I suspect that there may be an expiry date built into the indicators and that they could stop working in a couple of weeks time at which point they'll issue a new one with full authorisation required. So...the more we can work out about the system now, the better. peldoman, domonkos, Sesshoumaru and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted August 19, 2011 Report Share Posted August 19, 2011 (edited) Guys, For anyone up to the challenge of the probability calcs. I've just had another idea... The indicator Trend_Prob only shows the probability as the 3rd indicator buffer, the first two are there to make it look pretty - however to show it on the scale 0-100 both negative and positive probabilities show as the red shaded area. The reality is that probabilities are either negative and by the above definition run from -100 to 0, or they're positive and run from 0 to 100. This means that we're essentially looking for percentages (or fractions of a whole) when calculating the probabilities - which makes sense. One way to do this is to treat the "long" and "short" flags independently. For example across the 7 indicators we may have: M1: 1, 0, -1, -1, 1, -1, 1 M5: -1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1 Total M1 Short signals = 3 Total M1 Long signals = 3 Total M5 Short signals = 1 Total M5 Long signals = 5 However, if we view these as a proportion of the whole - which is 7 indicators then that leads us to... Probability of M1 Long = 3/7 Probability of M1 Short = 3/7 Probability of M5 Long = 5/7 Probability of M5 Short = 1/7 Total probability for Long = 3/7 + 5/7 = 8/7 Total probability for Short = 3/7 + 1/7 = 4/7 Because the probability of Long > Probability of Short, then the Master probability will show as the Long probability. I know that I'm not strictly following probability rules here, though I've seen trading probabilities worked out in a similar way before. The tricky bit is getting them back into the -100 to 0 or 0 to 100 scale. That's the theory, though I've not had time to juggle the numbers as yet and apply the Timeframe weighting and indicator % weighting and see if this actually works. All contributions welcome on this one :) Edited August 19, 2011 by soundfx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted August 19, 2011 Report Share Posted August 19, 2011 Here's something to check out for those of you looking at MA flags. It appears that SMA could be 0 when it's classed as being flat - it could be that is simply the SMA measured between the last closed candles or something like that. The strange values on EMAs I think may be coming from them having two types of logic. One being EMA1 and EMA2 crossover. There could be a certain amount of bars counted back to see if there's been an EMA cross - on the larger timeframes this could be 20 bars - though will need to be more on the smaller timeframes, if the theory holds. If EMA1 has crossed up through EMA2 in the last x candles then EMA1 is set to 1 and EMA2 is set to -1. If EMA1 has crossed down through EMA2 in the last x candles then EMA1 is set to -1 and EMA2 is set to 1. If there's no cross then if the current price is below EMA1 and EMA2, we set their flags to -1, and if there's no cross and the current price is above EMA1 and EMA2, we set their flags to 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny Posted August 19, 2011 Report Share Posted August 19, 2011 Very Impressive work/analysis/explanation SOUNDFX. Eagerly waiting your another post.......I can't help you with my little poor IQ but Thanks for your great going investigation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanrayman Posted August 19, 2011 Report Share Posted August 19, 2011 dang soundfx~ really appreciate what you're doing here man!! just plain awesome!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alansim Posted August 19, 2011 Report Share Posted August 19, 2011 @ soundfx EXCELLENT Work ! I think you can create your own SUPER indicator :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanrayman Posted August 19, 2011 Report Share Posted August 19, 2011 just wanna say thanks to psaini for this wonderful system.. n thanks to soundfx for his contribution.. i am up by 300% this week on my $100 account.. hihihihi~ just plain awesome!!!!!!! psaini1973 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted August 19, 2011 Report Share Posted August 19, 2011 Great news wanrayman. Let's hope we can properly re-engineer the indicator before it expires ;) For anyone trying to work out probabilities... It's best to concentrate on the Daily chart for doing this - to get variation to compare against use different pairs. The reason for using the Daily is that the timeframe weighting = 1, which essentially means we can ignore timeframe weighting. All we need to do is ensure that the flags taken from the original indicator have been noted correctly, also note master probability and then try applying the indicator% weightings and shuffle around the flags in different ways to see if we can get back to the same as the master probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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