Pip Accumulator

[⭐ mr12323]

mr psaini1973,

 

Plz dont get irritated , could u plz upload the indicators and templates which your using and an simple manual how to trade this system for all new commers

 

regards

raja

[psaini1973]

@mangiare. Exit is a big problem for me...in E/U my minimum profit is 25-30 pips. when i am in 20 pip profit my SL is my BE.. if i am trading any other pair also in positive or negative correlation with e/u then as soon as my e/u hit profit i close all other trades with wat ever profit they are in, (u can c yesterdays trades) Some time i go beyond the 30 pip profit that depends on the mkt conditions ( like last friday last trade was e/u which hit tp of i think 50 pips.

 

@soundfx. yes soundfx as i had mentioned earlier also i wait 4 the recent high n low, intraday swing high n lows... yesterdays n todays high n low n close.. support and resistance ... to be broken convincingly to be able to trade...everbody pls note that its easy to take care of these things once u start to implement these simple things in ur trading

 

Yesterday first two trades if u c the e/u had to broke a recent high of 1.3650 and u/c to break the low of .8821 convincingly to be able to trade... everybody pls note that this thing wont work every time but majority of the times... some times i also look at the 15 min charts for the immediate trend

 

Edit Post. @ soundfx. probability i always take as < or > then 20

 

@mr12323,,, i have try to give a small explanation of how i trade. i am not using any kind of special indicator or templates.. this system is perfect.. just devote some time to it, be faithfull and stick to it for a month and then u will c positive change.. even if u are in loss pls post ur loss trades also...

 

Edit post... @mr12323. i am trading 5 min chart and i also stay away from news

 

Today is a day full of news... i dont think i will trade today.. may be i will take a chance when e/u news get over and b4 the us mkt open....

 

Thanks.

Edited September 15, 2011 by psaini1973

[mangiare]

Thankyou psiani! Exit is a big problem for all unfortunately, the system works really well but it is important to find a good method for exit a trade (this makes a difference). Just test test and test again :) Today i will decide to trade, I love the adrenaline that gives the market during important economic news :D Here it's my 1st entry signal for today.

 

http://i55.tinypic.com/fcl461.png

http://i55.tinypic.com/fcl461.png

[vikram88]

Hey Guys

Try trading EURCAD instead of EURUSD it gives me a few extra pips

[mangiare]

Hi soundfx, can you change Il_Pip indicator in order to have a point on chart when MP reaches 0 please? If you can It may be useful for testing have two different exit signals: 1st on MP current TF and 2nd for MP all TF (will be great if work on MTF like Prob_Hist2). When we can see exit signal on chart we can improve better the system. Thankyou in advance my friend. Edited September 15, 2011 by mangiare

[psaini1973]

"No News is Good News"

 

Took two trades in "No News Zone", made a Total Profit of $ 511 :">

 

E/U buy trade profit of $ 216... Ahhhh just now hit my TP of 1.38248 :( , i closed early as was not feeling comfortable

 

U/C sell trade made a profit of $ 295.70

 

I am done 4 the day. wont trade any more today bcoz of news

 

Edit post: Pls note that i took sell trade in U/C inspite of the fact that their was no fresh sell signal in U/C bcos E/U and U/C are in negative co-relation ( now a days approx 90%)

 

http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/5494/eurq.gif

 

 

http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/5494/eurq.gif

Edited September 15, 2011 by psaini1973

[yesakhtar]

Hi Soundfx / Psaini1973

Could you please help me with the below mentioned queries:

 

1. I believe TREND SQUARE is hard coded i.e. the square for buy/sell signal appears same for all users. If yes then when I compare my dummy trade screen with the posted one, why do I find variance? Is it because of different time zone?

 

2. Different weightage of MACD, SAR, RSI, STOCH, SMA1, EMA1 & EMA2 indicators are used to create Master Probability. But this works fine even if MACD+ SAR+ RSI+ STOCH+ SMA1+ EMA1+ EMA2 <> 100% (greater than or less than 100%). Are we sure the Master Probability we see to enter/exit trade really mean what we think? I guess suppose summation of all indicator comes to 140%, 30% master probability would be counted considering base as 140% and not 100%

 

3. Does my selection of various weightage of the above mentioned indicators (by any chance) change the Trend Square i.e. I get the green box before/later any other user with default setting?

 

4. Suppose I am in 5M chart and Master probability shows +30%. How do I interpret this? Does this mean, probability of next 5M candle closing above the current candle is 30% based on all the above 7 indicators?

 

5. If yes for query 4, different indicators have different characteristics. Some indicates strength, some indicates trend... Its difficult to imagine a recipe that emerges as 30% strength of different type of forces. Master Probability is for sure the best thing one could think of, but if there a way to see who contributes what % to get to that master probability (instead of just a red or green square to show their contribution as +ve or -ve)

 

I have seen the best minds working together to get the best product. I just jumped in to get my doubts clarified ;)

[Maddogs]

Hi psaini

Do you use any other indicator to confirm your entry and if the trend is "apparently" going in one direction do you only take the trade with the trend?

[soundfx]

Hi yesakhtar,

 

1. I believe TREND SQUARE is hard coded i.e. the square for buy/sell signal appears same for all users. If yes then when I compare my dummy trade screen with the posted one, why do I find variance? Is it because of different time zone?

 

The arrows (and boxes) are drawn based on the settings for the following parameters:

 

Explantions are for Buy signals (Sell signals are the opposite)

 

ArrowMACD - Buy when MACD 24,52,18 Main > Signal

ArrowMACD0 - Buy when MACD 24,52,18 Main > 0 and previous Main < 0

ArrowProb - Buy when Probability is > ProbLevelLong

ArrowMACDxProb - Buy when MACD has crosses and Prob > ProbLevelLong

ArrowMACD0Prob - Buy when MACD Main > 0 and Prob > ProbLevelLong

 

Note that because the last 3 options use Probability (which is determined in real-time), then the boxes will be drawn in real-time only (i.e. you won't see any box history).

 

I believe psaini is using ArrowMACD set to true with the rest false. This just gives a "heads-up" arrow on the MACD cross and we look at that probability value independently to decide when to enter a trade. Do you have the same setting?

 

Slight differences may be seen with different price feeds (e.g. some MACD crosses showing a little earlier or later), though these shouldn't be very noticeable.

 

2. Different weightage of MACD, SAR, RSI, STOCH, SMA1, EMA1 & EMA2 indicators are used to create Master Probability. But this works fine even if MACD+ SAR+ RSI+ STOCH+ SMA1+ EMA1+ EMA2 <> 100% (greater than or less than 100%). Are we sure the Master Probability we see to enter/exit trade really mean what we think? I guess suppose summation of all indicator comes to 140%, 30% master probability would be counted considering base as 140% and not 100%

 

Yes, you're talking about changing the "Indicators Percentage" parameters such as MACD_Per etc. to make them add up to more than 100%.

 

The weighting is more complex than it appears because there are different weightings for each indicator for each timeframe too - though rather than having 72 separate parameters for these, they are hardcoded into arrays instead.

 

Here's an example of the numbers which are processed when we're looking at a 15M chart:

 

7, 15, 41, 20, 10, 7, 0, 0, 0

This means that:

1M takes 7% timeframe weighting

5M takes 15% timeframe weighting

15M takes 41% timeframe weighting

30M takes 20% timeframe weighting

1H takes 10% timeframe weighting

4H takes 7% timeframe weighting

 

It's these weightings which are processed last and which ensure that probability can only exist in a range from -100 to 100.

 

3. Does my selection of various weightage of the above mentioned indicators (by any chance) change the Trend Square i.e. I get the green box before/later any other user with default setting?

 

No, that should have no impact on boxes. I hope I've covered possible box issues in my reply to your first question.

 

4. Suppose I am in 5M chart and Master probability shows +30%. How do I interpret this? Does this mean, probability of next 5M candle closing above the current candle is 30% based on all the above 7 indicators?

 

It's best not to think of probability too literally. For example, the Master probabilities from today on EURUSD I've seen running from -58 to 66. However, that doesn't mean that when probability is -58 that we have just slightly better than a 50% chance of getting a good short trade. We've just been using default probability values from the original system which seem to work well. If probability is > 20 then Buy, if probability is < -20 then Sell.

 

If you prefer to wait for moves with big momentum only then use -35/35 as your probability levels instead.

 

The "All TF" probability is something new we added, and is still under evaluation - I don't think we're getting much more info. from that than from the Master prob. So, if you don't use it then turn it off by setting parameter TFProbCalc as by its nature it's a resource hog.

 

5. If yes for query 4, different indicators have different characteristics. Some indicates strength, some indicates trend... Its difficult to imagine a recipe that emerges as 30% strength of different type of forces. Master Probability is for sure the best thing one could think of, but if there a way to see who contributes what % to get to that master probability (instead of just a red or green square to show their contribution as +ve or -ve)

 

I think what you're referring to here are the timeframe probability settings which you've not been aware of now, if you're not familiar with the program code. I explained these above, however for reference, here are the numbers used for each different timeframe viewed:

 

M1: 55, 25, 13, 7, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

M5: 15, 50, 25, 15, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

M15: 7, 15, 41, 20, 10, 7, 0, 0, 0

M30: 3, 7, 20, 40, 20, 7, 3, 0, 0

H1: 7, 10, 20, 40, 10, 7, 3, 0

H4: 0, 3, 7, 10, 20, 40, 10, 7, 3

D1: 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 22, 46, 22, 5

W1: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 18, 50, 22

MN1: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 20, 70

However, interestingly, I've spotted that 5m is incorrect and adds up to 105% rather than 100%. These numbers came from the original indicator, so there has been a small bug in there all along.

Given that we use 5m a lot, I think that the M30 should be given weighting of 10 rather than 15 which I can change if all are happy.

Edited September 15, 2011 by soundfx

[god]

soundfx your an effing genius---very pleased to have you on our side.

[psaini1973]

Hi psaini

Do you use any other indicator to confirm your entry and if the trend is "apparently" going in one direction do you only take the trade with the trend?

 

Hi maddogs. i dont use any other indicator.. 4 a brief explanation as to how i trade pls read post no. 527.. page no 53. thanks

[psaini1973]

=soundfxI believe psaini is using ArrowMACD set to true with the rest false. This just gives a "heads-up" arrow on the MACD cross and we look at that probability value independently to decide when to enter a trade. Do you have the same setting?

 

Yes soundfx i am only using the ArrowMACD set to true and all false... and the single time probability

[yesakhtar]

Thanks Soundfx for the detailed explanation.

Regarding point 1, Initially I had the same setting as Psaini, just ArrowMACD set to true. But now, even after selecting ArrowMACD, ArrowMACD0, ArrowProb, ArrowMACDxProb, ArrowMACD0Prob to true, I still am able to see box history. Is there something wrong I am doing?

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/263/pipacc.gif/

 

Regarding point 5, I think we can give weightage to a group of things only if all of them have a common comparable parameter, on which all could be measured. But the factor that looks common is... all of them are indicators. I was wondering (for example), how could we club together SAR indicator and MA indicator in the same basket when both their functions are different. Looks like I am still missing some important concept awaiting Soundfx's clarification

 

I too back your statement of changing weightage of M30 to 10 especially in this current scenario

[soundfx]

Hi yesakhtar,

 

Posting your image didn't work - you need to right click on the image and use the link shown there which is:

 

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/448/pipacc.gif

 

If you remove the indicator and re-attach to the chart then it will clear previously drawn boxes, in addition at this time if you set only one of the last 3 entry parameters e.g. ArrowMACD0Prob, to true then you won't see the boxes.

 

If you set all entry options to true then all options will be activated and boxes will be drawn because of the ArrowMACD0 settings (as each option will be processed in sequence). The entry options are only intended to be used one at a time.

 

We can club together all indicators being used because they are all in one way or another indicating current direction or expected future direction. Each indicator can either have a Long or a Short bias - which gives us the -1's and 1's in the original indicator or the little red and green boxes in the II indicator.

 

Here are the calculations:

 

MACD Main > MACD Signal -> Long

MACD Main < MACD Signal -> Short

SAR < Current Open -> Long

SAR > Current Open -> Short

RSI < 35 -> Long

RSI > 65 -> Short

Stoch Main < 35 -> Long

Stoch Main > 65 -> Short

Current Low > SMA1 -> Long

Current High < SMA1 -> Short

EMA1 < SMA1 -> Long

EMA1 > SMA1 -> Short

EMA1 < EMA2 -> Long

EMA1 > EMA2 -> Short

 

We calculate the directional bias first, then each value of -1 or 1 is multiplied by the weightings (timeframe and indicator), then we add them all up to give a final "probability".

Edited September 16, 2011 by soundfx

[soundfx]

mangiare,

 

Hi soundfx, can you change Il_Pip indicator in order to have a point on chart when MP reaches 0 please? If you can It may be useful for testing have two different exit signals: 1st on MP current TF and 2nd for MP all TF (will be great if work on MTF like Prob_Hist2). When we can see exit signal on chart we can improve better the system. Thankyou in advance my friend.

 

I've made these changes, though I'm still running some tests on them at the mo. They will be available as a "display exits" parameter and will show different coloured dots when Master or AllTF probs hit 0.

[peldoman]

I was a couple off days away so i started reading this whole tread again.

Now i have a headache.

Soundfx or who ever, can you please put the latest pipaccu. with the changes you guys

have made again here?

Thanks in advance and a good weekend to you all.

[yesakhtar]

Thanks Soundfx

Looks like all contributions are already made for the betterment of the system. I would share my views if I come across anything while using the system

[mangiare]

mangiare,

 

 

 

I've made these changes, though I'm still running some tests on them at the mo. They will be available as a "display exits" parameter and will show different coloured dots when Master or AllTF probs hit 0.

 

soundfx you are the best! I hope this thing will helpful to improve the system. Will be really great if we can set all parameters for exit method. Thankyou in advance for you great work and contribution!

[Freddie]

I was a couple off days away so i started reading this whole tread again. Now i have a headache.

Soundfx or who ever, can you please put the latest pipaccu. with the changes you guys have made again here? Thanks in advance and a good weekend to you all.

 

I am also very confused by this thread. Can I ask Psaini...that doesn't look right...to tell us what indicators he uses.

Same of Soundfx, your posts are often way above my head but you seem very successful.

Likewise Mangiari...You three have really got a grasp on this thread but I cannot grasp lots of what you say.

 

I'd be grateful for your help. Maybe we could start a new thread for us beginners?

[yesakhtar]

Hi Soundfx,

 

I was browsing the code trying to get further understanding and found the below line:

MasterProb = MasterProb + MACDProb + SARProb + RSIProb + StochProb + SMA1Prob + EMA1Prob + EMA2Prob;

 

The equation looked a bit different to me... Shouldn't it be simply be

MasterProb = MACDProb + SARProb + RSIProb + StochProb + SMA1Prob + EMA1Prob + EMA2Prob;

[soundfx]

Hi yesakhtar,

 

The code is correct. This is because we're in a loop and adding up the total probabilities for all relevant timeframes (those which have non-zero weightings in the timeframe weighting array) to the chart we're looking at.

 

For example, on a 5m chart the relevant timeframes 1m, 15m and 30m also contribute to the Master Probability.

[soundfx]

Hi Freddie,

 

We probably need a document which explains where the system came from and what changes have been made and why - however, all this information is in the thread if you read it sequentially. If you really want to understand in depth where the signals come from then it can get a bit technical as you've seen in my responses to yesakhtar.

 

There is no single correct way to trade this system (as with any other manual systems) and each trader will use slightly different methods in making it "their own" system. For example some folks like to use the indicator in conjunction with SuperTrend or non-LagMA or whatever else as extra confirming indicators. Psaini as he mentioned recently consistenly does very well using the arrows and probabilities along with classic manual trading methods such as swing high/low breaks, S/R breaks/bounces etc.

 

However, there are simple guidelines that we can follow from the core indicator II_PipAccumulator and that is to use the Arrows as a "heads up" that a good trade could be around the corner - then we look at Master Probabilty to be > 20 when Buying and < -20 when Selling.

 

Everything else has been developed for particular traders requirements:

 

German wanted to calculate arrows based on different criteria than just a simple MACD cross, this is where all the extra entry parameters came from.

 

We added "All TF" because some folks switched charts a lot to check probabilities on higher timeframes before deciding on whether to enter or not - the All TF option shows all of these probabilities for other charts on the chart you're looking at and also provides a total which is similar to Master Probability.

 

II_Prob_Hist was created to give us history of Master probabilities to see trade opportunities better - however this has to work in real-time because of limitations in MT4 which can't handle multiple timeframes when looking back in history.

 

II_Prob_Hist2 was created to give us a history of Total All TF probabilities, just so that we could see if there are different patterns.

[soundfx]

Hi Guys,

 

Here's the most recent version of II_PipAccumulator. The default is for standard settings.

 

http://www.multiupload.com/IPMEIX1K3D

 

The change in this version is to add a new parameter (defaulted to false) which will indicate possible exit points with different coloured dots when Master Probability or All TF probability hit 0 after an arrow signal is given.

 

I've run some tests on this and it seems to work ok, though I've not seen the dots for AllTF prob hitting 0 in testing as yet...so we may need to tweak the code a bit more, however from what I've seen, Master Prob and AllTF Prob tend to hit 0 at the same time.

[vikram88]

Winning trade in New York Market already 26 Pips in Profit with SL now in 8 pips profit

Using M30 cos WMIFOR has 80% match

http://i52.tinypic.com/14vk8qp.gif

[Antial]

Hi Vikram, when you press F2 on the screen, another window appears. You go to USDCAD then 30min. Now you press download and you can get about 2000 examples for the indi WMIFOR. At the moment you only have 117. probably, this will change the results