Pip Accumulator

[psaini1973]

E/U is going no where.... stuck in a range.... 7Hrs of sitting idle... :-?

[⭐ musketeer]

anyone got gold's fall? :)

[German]

E/U is going no where.... stuck in a range.... 7Hrs of sitting idle... :-?

 

Hi psaini1973

 

Is been a challenge today with the euro as we all can see the correlation between the GBP/USD and the EURO/USD is completely inverted. we have the GBP/USD going down we have the EURO/USD trying to go up.

 

The problem I see is that the 1.45 area on the euro seems to be an area were the failures to the upside continuously keep happening

 

And even with today's bad news out of Germany during the London session for the EURO/USD is still rallying simply because of the fact that the European Central Bank is buying the peripheral bonds and Italian bonds.

 

But with the GBP/USD still trying to head down, we may very well see the EURO/USD “play catch up” to the downside and get in tune to the downside with the GBP/USD

 

If we break down again below the 1.4404 area, it would be nice to see the Master Pro go below – 20 and lets see how far behind the down side arrow takes,

 

But I can understand sitting all day waiting for a high probability set up. Like soundfx said the only happen 1 or 2 a day, something that new traders have a hard time believing.

 

At least the GBP/USD gave a nice trade once it broke below the over night lows at 1.6470 were I think you had your pending order.

[mograst]

hello guys,

here is template and indicators (just put into template and indicators folder) and you will have the same template as on my previouse post. I do not use "trend_prob" but i is included ind the download link (maybe somone other use it)

Please Note: I use FxPro. If you use another broker you have to set different GMT time for caramill indicator.

I use this template for eur/usd, gbp/usd on 5Min timeframe. Please share your findings for other currencies/timeframes

 

 

http://www.multiupload.com/DPKD1AWA0D

[psaini1973]

Hi psaini1973

 

Is been a challenge today with the euro as we all can see the correlation between the GBP/USD and the EURO/USD is completely inverted. we have the GBP/USD going down we have the EURO/USD trying to go up.

 

The problem I see is that the 1.45 area on the euro seems to be an area were the failures to the upside continuously keep happening

 

And even with today's bad news out of Germany during the London session for the EURO/USD is still rallying simply because of the fact that the European Central Bank is buying the peripheral bonds and Italian bonds.

 

But with the GBP/USD still trying to head down, we may very well see the EURO/USD “play catch up” to the downside and get in tune to the downside with the GBP/USD

 

If we break down again below the 1.4404 area, it would be nice to see the Master Pro go below – 20 and lets see how far behind the down side arrow takes,

 

But I can understand sitting all day waiting for a high probability set up. Like soundfx said the only happen 1 or 2 a day, something that new traders have a hard time believing.

 

At least the GBP/USD gave a nice trade once it broke below the over night lows at 1.6470 were I think you had your pending order.

 

 

my bad luck is i deleted g/u at 1.6470 bcos at that time gu was going up .. anyways theres another next day...

[mograst]

as you can see, todays levels are quite good and produced good trade. 2 trades on eur/usd and 1 on gbp/usd

 

http://i51.tinypic.com/2ry62v9.jpg

 

 

------------

 

http://i55.tinypic.com/288a0ki.jpg

[German]

Hi conglo,

 

I was being a bit "cavalier" in my approach to deleting objects :)

 

This version should contain a fix for your problem - try it and see:

 

http://www.multiupload.com/TG28ABQNV5

 

This version also includes options for alerts...

 

Either set AlertArrow or AlertArrowProb to true to activate the alert.

 

AlertArrow will alert as soon as a new arrow is drawn regardless of probability.

AlertArrowProb will alert as soon as a probability is >20 or < -20 after an arrow is drawn.

 

As a general trading note, because this system is essentially momentum driven, then I'd expect signals to be best in the main UK and UK/US sessions.

 

Hello Soundfx

 

First and foremost I want to personally thank you for the effort and all the time you have put into this indicator. I know time is a commodity and it has a value. So a Big thank you that you well deserved for all your efforts.

 

 

I have downloaded and been observing this new version for the last two days and have it set on “AlertArrowProb will alert as soon as a probability is >20 or < -20 AFTER an arrow is drawn”

 

What I have noticed is the following:

 

Today on the Euro/USD at approximately 10:00 AM New York time looking at the 15 min. chart there was a strong momentum move, which started the down side move after it broke below 1. 4420 at or around 10:00 A.M New York time and the candle made a low of 1.4398 at the close of that candle.

 

At that time I clearly observed that the Master Probability having a reading of -35 to -40

 

But there was no down side arrow printed even with those large negative readings to the downside during the time I mention above. It actually did not print until the close of the candle, but still on “Intra-Candle” bases the reading kept getting larger from -35 to -40 only at the close of the candle did the down side arrow print , a little to late for anyone waiting for the close of the candle or an arrow.

 

So my question is as follows. Is there a possibility to have an option for a pop-up alert ONLY when the Master Probability indicator is above 20 or below -20?

 

OR EVEN an option to insert the users own Master Probability reading level output number and give the user a pop up alert with the price when the Master Probability indicator reaches the user input setting even without an arrow begin present on an “Intra-Candle” bases?

 

And also maybe a “Intra-Candle” arrow can be painted when only if the sub-indy conditions are met before the close of the candle that is in play much like we had today on the time frame I talked about and mention above?

 

Even if before the close of the candle in play the arrows leaves because of one of the sub-indys within the master calculation flips back and cancel the arrow.

 

The Master Probability reading may still be strong enough to enter or keep the trade open, at least it will print the price and you'll be able to keep an eye on the momentum around that price until the close of the candle and use your judgment.

 

I believe this will give you a faster heads up on under a momentum driven move much like we saw on the 15 min. Euro/ Usd chart.

Edited August 24, 2011 by German

[soundfx]

Hi German,

 

Thanks for your comments, all well observed :)

 

I think your idea of alerting at a user defined probability level is a good idea. I've been wondering if it's possible to trade on probabilities alone and this option would help us test that idea.

 

The arrow only paints on the close of the candle, so that we don't end up with arrows appearing one minute and disappearing the next (i.e. repainting).

 

Plus, bear in mind that the arrows are only an indication of possible direction change - there's nothing special about the arrows, they're just generated when MACD 24, 52, 18 crosses it's signal line.

 

The arrows will be slow to draw, as we're trying to eliminate as many false signals as possible. This is why the origators set the MACD to 24,52,18 (i.e. double the default MACD settings of 12,26,9).

 

I'll also look into changing the indicator to add an option to only draw arrows when the probability exceeds a particular level - this can default to 20, though would be handy if it was adjustable. Again I think that this probably needs to be based on closed candles to avoid repainting.

[soundfx]

Hi Guys,

 

Here's a new version with extended alerts:

 

http://www.multiupload.com/31USA1303A

 

The parameters work as follows:

 

ProbLevelLong = Probability level trigger for Buy signal alerts

ProbLevelShort = Probability level trigger for Sell signal alerts

 

AlertArrow = If set to true will alert when a new arrow is painted

AlertArrowProb = If set to true will alert when probability level is reached and arrow has been painted.

AlertProb = If set to true will alert when probability level is reached

 

Try testing these and experiment to ensure that they all work properly.

 

Regarding German's idea of only drawing the arrow when both MACD crossover and Probability line up is actually a lot trickier than I thought.

 

The problem is the same one as with the prob trend indicator. Probabilities are only calculated in real-time in the indicator, however the arrows have to be drawn by looking back through historical candles (so that you can see all the previous arrows and boxes).

 

To draw all the historical arrows (based on MACD and probability) correctly, we need to be sure that we have the correct historical values of the probability too, which I don't think we have because of the MTF issues mentioned earlier.

[jshear]

Hello Soundfx

 

First and foremost I want to personally thank you for the effort and all the time you have put into this indicator. I know time is a commodity and it has a value. So a Big thank you that you well deserved for all your efforts.

 

 

I have downloaded and been observing this new version for the last two days and have it set on “AlertArrowProb will alert as soon as a probability is >20 or < -20 AFTER an arrow is drawn”

 

What I have noticed is the following:

 

Today on the Euro/USD at approximately 10:00 AM New York time looking at the 15 min. chart there was a strong momentum move, which started the down side move after it broke below 1. 4420 at or around 10:00 A.M New York time and the candle made a low of 1.4398 at the close of that candle.

 

At that time I clearly observed that the Master Probability having a reading of -35 to -40

 

But there was no down side arrow printed even with those large negative readings to the downside during the time I mention above. It actually did not print until the close of the candle, but still on “Intra-Candle” bases the reading kept getting larger from -35 to -40 only at the close of the candle did the down side arrow print , a little to late for anyone waiting for the close of the candle or an arrow.

 

So my question is as follows. Is there a possibility to have an option for a pop-up alert ONLY when the Master Probability indicator is above 20 or below -20?

 

OR EVEN an option to insert the users own Master Probability reading level output number and give the user a pop up alert with the price when the Master Probability indicator reaches the user input setting even without an arrow begin present on an “Intra-Candle” bases?

 

And also maybe a “Intra-Candle” arrow can be painted when only if the sub-indy conditions are met before the close of the candle that is in play much like we had today on the time frame I talked about and mention above?

 

Even if before the close of the candle in play the arrows leaves because of one of the sub-indys within the master calculation flips back and cancel the arrow.

 

The Master Probability reading may still be strong enough to enter or keep the trade open, at least it will print the price and you'll be able to keep an eye on the momentum around that price until the close of the candle and use your judgment.

 

I believe this will give you a faster heads up on under a momentum driven move much like we saw on the 15 min. Euro/ Usd chart.

 

 

 

Great ideas German thanks for all your thoughts !! We all appreciate it!!

 

Jeff

[jshear]

Sound FX: Am I able to set alerts based on Germans idea? Example I want to set alert probability to true when my input number is reached. BUT I also want to see an alert ONLY when an arrow is painted. Can I set two alerts to true? Look forward to your reply. Thank you for all your efforts and help on this forum.

 

 

Jeff

[soundfx]

Hi Jeff,

 

Set AlertArrowProb = true and it should do what you want.

 

You can set all alerts to true if you want.

 

AlertArrow will alert you when a new arrow is drawn (based on MACD 24,52,18 Main/Signal Crossover only).

 

AlertArrowProb will alert you when an arrow has been drawn and your input probability value is reached in the same direction as the arrow.

 

AlertProb will alert you when either of your probability input levels are reached.

 

To prevent alerts firing off all the time, you should only get one alert for each direction - hence if if AlertProb = true and prob goes to 21 - you get a buy alert and you won't get another alert until prob goes to -21 etc.

[jshear]

Sound FX thanks for your answers and help!!

 

 

Jeff

 

 

PS May the pips be with us all!!

 

 

PS can there be an option for the arrow to paint only when the probability input number is reached ?

[soundfx]

Jeff,

 

PS can there be an option for the arrow to paint only when the probability input number is reached ?

 

Sometimes the things which seem dead easy can be horrendously complex :)

 

That's the one which I mentioned earlier gives us big problems. There are ways around the problems that I can think of, though none of them 100% robust and some will be potentially confusing.

 

The problem is that to show you the arrows and boxes as they currently are, it means reading back thorugh the candles of whatever timeframe you're looking at. This is no problem with a simple indicator like a MACD crossover on the same timeframe as the chart is attached to, and that's what we currently have.

 

We get problems with probability because it's calculated on multiple timeframes. In real-time the values that come back from indicators on multi-timeframe indicators are 100% correct because each chart is looking at price in the same point of time.

 

Say, we have II_PipAccumulator on a 5m chart and the time is currently 08:12 and the last arrow was drawn 5 candles back at 07:46. We have to adjust each timeframe to correspond to this - hence 1m would be (5 * 5 = 25) candles back, M15 would be 1 candle back, and M30 would be one candle back.

 

This isn't a problem to calculate the equivalent candles in other timeframes, however the real problem is in determining indicator values (which make up the probability) in timeframes greater than the one we're looking at (in the case of this example 15m and 30m).

 

Now the problem here is that historically we have the data for each chart, but it is all based on the candle close values. For us to have accurate multiple time frame (MTF) history (and hence probability values) we need to be able see what the indicator values on higher timeframes were as the M15 and M30 candles were forming (specifically at the time 07:46 - so that we could avoid drawing the arrow if the probability at that time had not reached the trigger level).

 

I think the only way for us to do this is to create an indicator which works in real-time only. In other words when you attach it to your screen or start up MT4 nothing will be displayed. Because we're always now looking at real-time data it's a simple matter to plot the arrows only when the probability matches. The indicator should continue plotting arrows and boxes as long as you have MT4 running, however as soon as you start it up again (or change an indicator parameter setting which will re-initialise it) then everything on the screen will be lost and you'll start from scratch again.

Edited August 24, 2011 by soundfx

[jshear]

Sound fx thanks for you explanation. Keep upmthe great work.

 

 

Cheers

 

 

Jeff

[German]

Jeff,

 

 

 

Sometimes the things which seem dead easy can be horrendously complex :)

 

That's the one which I mentioned earlier gives us big problems. There are ways around the problems that I can think of, though none of them 100% robust and some will be potentially confusing.

 

The problem is that to show you the arrows and boxes as they currently are, it means reading back thorugh the candles of whatever timeframe you're looking at. This is no problem with a simple indicator like a MACD crossover on the same timeframe as the chart is attached to, and that's what we currently have.

 

We get problems with probability because it's calculated on multiple timeframes. In real-time the values that come back from indicators on multi-timeframe indicators are 100% correct because each chart is looking at price in the same point of time.

 

Say, we have II_PipAccumulator on a 5m chart and the time is currently 08:12 and the last arrow was drawn 5 candles back at 07:46. We have to adjust each timeframe to correspond to this - hence 1m would be (5 * 5 = 25) candles back, M15 would be 1 candle back, and M30 would be one candle back.

 

This isn't a problem to calculate the equivalent candles in other timeframes, however the real problem is in determining indicator values (which make up the probability) in timeframes greater than the one we're looking at (in the case of this example 15m and 30m).

 

Now the problem here is that historically we have the data for each chart, but it is all based on the candle close values. For us to have accurate multiple time frame (MTF) history (and hence probability values) we need to be able see what the indicator values on higher timeframes were as the M15 and M30 candles were forming (specifically at the time 07:46 - so that we could avoid drawing the arrow if the probability at that time had not reached the trigger level).

 

I think the only way for us to do this is to create an indicator which works in real-time only. In other words when you attach it to your screen or start up MT4 nothing will be displayed. Because we're always now looking at real-time data it's a simple matter to plot the arrows only when the probability matches. The indicator should continue plotting arrows and boxes as long as you have MT4 running, however as soon as you start it up again (or change an indicator parameter setting which will re-initialise it) then everything on the screen will be lost and you'll start from scratch again.

 

 

 

Soundfx

 

Now this I like very much, its what I was asking for with the idea I wrote,this is great if it can be done ,as it is now just because we see an arrow from a macd 0 line cross we really have no idea what the Master Probability reading number was at that "past event"

 

Also we could always leave some MT4 running to see the effects of different number settings and install the indy on other's MT4 and switch Master Probability reading numbers and test a new setting and delete the old setting if the new is better and still be moving forward, to be honest I would be looking for -25 or +25 just to start off with.

 

 

"I think the only way for us to do this is to create an indicator which works in real-time only. In other words when you attach it to your screen or start up MT4 nothing will be displayed. Because we're always now looking at real-time data it's a simple matter to plot the arrows only when the probability matches. The indicator should continue plotting arrows and boxes as long as you have MT4 running, however as soon as you start it up again (or change an indicator parameter setting which will re-initialise it) then everything on the screen will be lost and you'll start from scratch again"

Edited August 25, 2011 by German
we really have now/ we really have no

[jamestan1978]

Thanks for the great work, is there a way to activate the alert be sent via email from mt4?

Hi Guys,

 

Here's a new version with extended alerts:

 

http://www.multiupload.com/31USA1303A

 

The parameters work as follows:

 

ProbLevelLong = Probability level trigger for Buy signal alerts

ProbLevelShort = Probability level trigger for Sell signal alerts

 

AlertArrow = If set to true will alert when a new arrow is painted

AlertArrowProb = If set to true will alert when probability level is reached and arrow has been painted.

AlertProb = If set to true will alert when probability level is reached

 

Try testing these and experiment to ensure that they all work properly.

 

Regarding German's idea of only drawing the arrow when both MACD crossover and Probability line up is actually a lot trickier than I thought.

 

The problem is the same one as with the prob trend indicator. Probabilities are only calculated in real-time in the indicator, however the arrows have to be drawn by looking back through historical candles (so that you can see all the previous arrows and boxes).

 

To draw all the historical arrows (based on MACD and probability) correctly, we need to be sure that we have the correct historical values of the probability too, which I don't think we have because of the MTF issues mentioned earlier.

[soundfx]

Hi jamestan1978,

 

I've added an email option to the version of the indicator I'm currently working on (trying to get these real-time crossover/probability signals). The email bit was easy, though the other stuff will require more testing (probably in a more active market than the current one) before I post the link to it.

 

Have you used MT4 to send e-mails before?

 

If not you should check out this video:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_Tw_EciJoM

 

If you want to send text to a cell/mobile then have a look at this too:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFWslY4SoV4

[⭐ musketeer]

Hello Soundfx

 

First and foremost I want to personally thank you for the effort and all the time you have put into this indicator. I know time is a commodity and it has a value. So a Big thank you that you well deserved for all your efforts.

 

 

I have downloaded and been observing this new version for the last two days and have it set on “AlertArrowProb will alert as soon as a probability is >20 or < -20 AFTER an arrow is drawn”

 

What I have noticed is the following:

 

Today on the Euro/USD at approximately 10:00 AM New York time looking at the 15 min. chart there was a strong momentum move, which started the down side move after it broke below 1. 4420 at or around 10:00 A.M New York time and the candle made a low of 1.4398 at the close of that candle.

 

At that time I clearly observed that the Master Probability having a reading of -35 to -40

 

But there was no down side arrow printed even with those large negative readings to the downside during the time I mention above. It actually did not print until the close of the candle, but still on “Intra-Candle” bases the reading kept getting larger from -35 to -40 only at the close of the candle did the down side arrow print , a little to late for anyone waiting for the close of the candle or an arrow.

 

So my question is as follows. Is there a possibility to have an option for a pop-up alert ONLY when the Master Probability indicator is above 20 or below -20?

 

OR EVEN an option to insert the users own Master Probability reading level output number and give the user a pop up alert with the price when the Master Probability indicator reaches the user input setting even without an arrow begin present on an “Intra-Candle” bases?

 

And also maybe a “Intra-Candle” arrow can be painted when only if the sub-indy conditions are met before the close of the candle that is in play much like we had today on the time frame I talked about and mention above?

 

Even if before the close of the candle in play the arrows leaves because of one of the sub-indys within the master calculation flips back and cancel the arrow.

 

The Master Probability reading may still be strong enough to enter or keep the trade open, at least it will print the price and you'll be able to keep an eye on the momentum around that price until the close of the candle and use your judgment.

 

I believe this will give you a faster heads up on under a momentum driven move much like we saw on the 15 min. Euro/ Usd chart.

 

Hi German,

you wrote to Soundfx but here are my thoughts. It works pretty good observing more than one TF, for examples strongest and "on the fly" hiting limits were produced when the Probability (mix of all MAs and RSI) were +20/-20 on 1,5,15,30 even 60M TF.

You will not miss good move, just lower the TF.

[soundfx]

Thanks musketeer,

 

That's the sort of info. we need to make a good system out of this.

 

I suspected that "confluence" of TF probability signals would lead to some of the best trades.

 

Are you mainly trading 5m and 15m ?

 

I wondered if it was worth putting each T/F probability onto the screen we trade from. underneath the green and red blocks.

 

The next thing we're going to need is an arrow which only appears when all T/F's line up as above or below 20, though I'm still having problems with just one T/F lol.

[⭐ musketeer]

Soundfx, can I inject some more ... difficulties?

Can you add in the histo indi... maximal values being reached in the current(every) candle? It is just for testing purpose, not trade-able...

[soundfx]

Hmmm - the histo indi isn't currently recording the history correctly.

 

I know what you're looking to find out and it's a good idea.

 

I'm working on changing the main indicator to work in real-time which is the only way we can get the historical probabilities correct - however I need to store these historical values in an array for each candle close on the active chart.

 

I'd need to change the histo indicator to do something similar. The only problem with this real-time stuff is that as soon as you change timeframe then the indicator gets re-initialised and all the history gets wiped out. This is correct because when you change timeframe you change candle closes and hence the probabilities stored against 5m candles for example, won't be the same as those which would have been determined for 15m candles.

 

This is what I was meaning before about any solution to the MTF problem not being 100% robust.

 

If it's only for testing then it shouldn't be a problem to just leave the indi running and gathering historical info. as it goes along - thinking about it, I guess an indicator which just writes probability values to a CSV files would be just as good, provided you've a spare laptop or whatever to keep it running all the time.

[⭐ musketeer]

Thanks musketeer,

 

That's the sort of info. we need to make a good system out of this.

 

I suspected that "confluence" of TF probability signals would lead to some of the best trades.

 

Are you mainly trading 5m and 15m ?

 

I wondered if it was worth putting each T/F probability onto the screen we trade from. underneath the green and red blocks.

 

The next thing we're going to need is an arrow which only appears when all T/F's line up as above or below 20, though I'm still having problems with just one T/F lol.

 

these are early days for sure, and I even miss yesterday, but that I did was main 5M TF, and just for some sort of confirmation and looking for better entries I do observe the others TFs

 

That (tracking 5M TF) happens after that I realized that better entries are on smaller TF because of better R:R and together with earliest (better prices). The max is the waiting for pullback first. .... thus driving to miss some trades(profits) and avoiding some losses.

The max I have seen for the time being were 1-60M TF, all pointing in one direction, I said it back in the thread.

So, it would be useful info for sure :)

Edited August 25, 2011 by musketeer

[soundfx]

Ok guys...

 

Here's a 100% accurate Probability histogram hot off the press.

 

Note: This is a real time indicator which builds up history as it runs, so when you first install the indicator the indicator panel will be blank. Also be aware that changing timeframes will re-initialise the indicator and wipe out the data, the same applies when you restart MT4 or change parameter settings. It's a pain, I know, but this is the only way to ensure that we record correct data from the multiple timeframes.

 

Here's the link for the indi:

 

http://www.multiupload.com/FVTZCMO5PU

 

If you leave the indicator running, the history will accumulate up to the number of bars specified in the parameter "LookBack" (defaulted to 1,000) and at that point should start overwriting itself (though I've not been able to test that yet).

 

You may also notice a parameter "MaxMin" - ignore that as it does nothing at the moment.

 

The indicator shows on the histogram maximum positive probabilities in light green and the probably at the closed candle in dark green. Negative probabilities are shown similarly in pink and red.

 

I've tested on the 1m chart (which has been very slow going in the Asian session) and some interesting patterns are forming. Try it out and see if you can spot some patterns which repeat regularly and lead to high probability setups :)

 

Here's a screenshot to show what it looks like:

 

http://i52.tinypic.com/14sowm.jpg

[conglo]

Many thanks for all of your efforts here.

 

Ok guys...

 

Here's a 100% accurate Probability histogram hot off the press.

 

Note: This is a real time indicator which builds up history as it runs, so when you first install the indicator the indicator panel will be blank. Also be aware that changing timeframes will re-initialise the indicator and wipe out the data, the same applies when you restart MT4 or change parameter settings. It's a pain, I know, but this is the only way to ensure that we record correct data from the multiple timeframes.

 

Here's the link for the indi:

 

http://www.multiupload.com/FVTZCMO5PU

 

If you leave the indicator running, the history will accumulate up to the number of bars specified in the parameter "LookBack" (defaulted to 1,000) and at that point should start overwriting itself (though I've not been able to test that yet).

 

You may also notice a parameter "MaxMin" - ignore that as it does nothing at the moment.

 

The indicator shows on the histogram maximum positive probabilities in light green and the probably at the closed candle in dark green. Negative probabilities are shown similarly in pink and red.

 

I've tested on the 1m chart (which has been very slow going in the Asian session) and some interesting patterns are forming. Try it out and see if you can spot some patterns which repeat regularly and lead to high probability setups :)

 

Here's a screenshot to show what it looks like:

 

http://i52.tinypic.com/14sowm.jpg