OctaFX_Farid

Wall street could see lackluster trading ahead of Yellen testimony




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US stock markets are likely to see lackluster trading on Tuesday as investors may prefer to remain on the sidelines ahead of Federal Reserve Janet Yellen's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

At the time of writing, the DJIA futures were up 0.07% at 18,098.50, while the S&P 500 futures were down 0.01% at 2106.45 levels. Meanwhile, NASDAQ futures were down 0.09% at 4440.70 and Russell futures were down 0.03% at 1230.00 levels. The VIX futures were down 0.88% at 16.88 levels.

Markets are likely to watch out for Yellen's remarks today and at a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Standard & Poor's is scheduled to release its report on home prices, while Conference Board is due to release a separate report on consumer confidence in February.

The global cues are mixed, with markets across the Asia-Pacific region having moved mostly higher during trading on Tuesday, while the major European markets are turning in a mixed performance.







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Feb 24,2015
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USD/MXN drops to lows post-CPI




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is gathering some traction vs. its northern neighbor on Tuesday, taking USD/MXN to fresh session lows around 15.0700.

USD/MXN softer on data

The pair accelerated the intraday decline after consumer prices tracked by the 1st Half-Month CPI in the Aztec economy advanced at a monthly pace of 0.1% in February, reverting the previous contraction of 0.19%; Core prices followed suit, up 0.28% vs. -0.09% previous. In the US docket, Home Prices gauged by the S&P/Case-Shiller index advanced 4.5% on a year to December, surpassing both estimates and previous reading.

USD/MXN important levels

As of writing the pair is up 0.01% at 15.0917 and a surpass of 15.1555 (high Feb.11) would aim for 15.2660 (high Mar.9 2009). On the downside, the next support lines up at 15.000 (psychological level) ahead of 14.9858 (Tenkan Sen) and finally 14.8682 (21-d MA).






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Feb 24,2015
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FX Macro trade recommendations – JPM




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The J.P.Morgan Team shares the macro trade recommendations reflecting FX regimes where central bank policies will be in focus in coming weeks.

Key Quotes

“While our base case is that Denmark will continue to defend its peg with EUR, the intensity with which the DNB has had to intervene in FX markets is surprising and suggestive of ongoing pressure. Sell EUR/DKK 3- months forward.”

“The PBoC will likely allow further RMB weakness in the near-term. Buy USD/TWD 3-months forward to position for the spillover impact in a carry efficient way.”

“Stay short commodity currencies via long EUR/AUD and long GBP/NOK.”

“New trades: Short EUR/DKK and long USD/TWD both via 3-month forwards.”

“Existing trades: Hold long EUR/AUD and GBP/NOK in spot. Stay long 2-mo USD/SEK bearish riskreversal and short EUR/CZK (6-mo 1x2 spread).”






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Feb 24,2015
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EUR/USD erases daily losses, Yellen testimony eyed




FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD recovered from lows and trades little changed on the day as Eurogroup assesses Greek list of reforms and markets await Fed’s Yellen testimony before the Congress.

Greece delivered its proposed reforms to the Eurogroup today and finance ministers will hold a conference call to assess the list. If it is approved, Greece will get a 4-month extension of the bailout program.

Meanwhile, main attention turns to Federal Reserve chief, who is due to speak before of the Congress today after last week's FOMC minutes were judged dovish. Yellen semi-annual testimony is scheduled at 15:00 GMT.

EUR/USD was on the defensive during the European session and bottomed out at 1.1295, roughly at the same level it did yesterday, before bouncing. The pair has managed to erase intraday losses and it is currently trading 1.1330.

EUR/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, EUR/USD could face next resistances at 1.1360 (100-hour SMA) and 1.1395 (Feb 23 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.1295 (Feb 24 & 23 lows) and 1.1279 (Feb 20 low).









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Feb 24,2015
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WTI Crude rises above 50-DMA, trades positive




FXStreet (Mumbai) - WTI Crude April futures rose above 50-DMA located at USD 49.50/barrel, after having recovered from the low of USD 48.68 hit on concerns of excess supply.

WTI Crude: will it sustain above 50-DMA?

The recovery seen in Crude prices was largely in the absence of fresh fundamental trigger. Moreover, the Weekly US oil inventory data will start coming in from Tuesday, with the API Weekly Statistical data due later in the day and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report due on Wednesday.

In the meantime, Greece’s debt drama and Fed chairwoman Yellen’s testimony shall take the center stage. Both the issues can significantly impact the US dollar and thus lead to intraday swings in Crude prices. A weak USD could help Crude sustain above the 50-DMA located at USD 49.50. However, eventually the prices could decline sharply if the weekly supply data shows oil inventories in the US continued to rise in the last week.

WTI Crude Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 50.39 (5-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 51.46 (10-DMA). On the flip side, a break below 50-DMA at 49.50, could push the prices down to daily low of 48.68.








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Feb 24,2015
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Yellen’s testimony to reflect a rate hike and the data dependence of Fed – Scotiabank




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, highlights the key focus for today’s Fed Yellen’s testimonty and further views that the broad takeaway from the speech would be that Fed will hike rates and it is data dependent.

Key Quotes

“Chair Yellen’s semi‐annual testimony is today’s highlight. It is likely to reflect the themes from the Fed minutes, with a focus on the following:

1) Data: the Fed is data dependent and will shift course with the data.

2) Conditions for a hike: include a) further improvement in labour, which we have subsequently seen with the strong nonfarm print; b) stable or rising levels of core PCE inflation.

3) Rate increase: many participants are concerned with premature rate increase; with the balance of risks between too early and too late seeming to favour erring on the side of too late. This discussion could prove the highlight of today’s testimony.

4) Inflation: the Fed noted that the downside risk to inflation forecast have increased due to softening on core.

5) Patience: there appear to be significant concerns around removing the word patience for fear of the message and potential response.

6) International developments: the Fed sees the risk to US growth as lower, but noted China, global disinflation, the Middle East, Ukraine and Greece as important themes.

7) The USD: the strength in the USD is a restraint on exports ‐ but we do not see the FOMC committee as particularly alarmed.”

“The market will watch closely for any indication of the timing of rate hikes; however we expect the broad takeaway to be that the Fed will hike rates and it is data dependent, over time this support a stronger USD.”







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Feb 24,2015
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Credit Agricole: Yellen likely to deflect questions on Fed’s forward guidance – eFXnews




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team shares Credit Agricole’s view regarding the expectations from today’s Yellen’s testimony, with CA commenting that the Fed Chair is likely to deflect any questions relation to ‘patience’.

Key Quotes

“We believe that the assessment of economic activity will be relatively upbeat.”

“We look for Chair Yellen’s comments to suggest that the FOMC believes it will soon approach employment conditions that are consistent with its employment mandate.”

“In assessing the impact of global factors on the US economy, it will be interesting to see if she focuses on positive international developments, such as increased ECB accommodation and lower oil prices or negative developments such as softer global growth and a stronger dollar.”

“On the inflation front, Chair Yellen will likely note that price inflation has moved further away from the Fed’s 2% target, largely reflecting the declines in energy prices.”

“We expect her to underscore that inflation expectations remain relatively well anchored and hence the impact of lower energy prices is likely to be transitory but needs to be monitored carefully.”

“Ms. Yellen will likely note that the Fed focuses on the medium-term outlook for core inflation as a guide to policy.”

“Chair Yellen is expected to stress the data dependency of the monetary policy outlook, while indicating that most FOMC members look to begin normalizing rates this year.”

“The Chair will no doubt be asked about “patience” and forward guidance. We suspect that she will deflect the question, by saying that the FOMC will try to indicate as clearly as possible its current thinking conditioned on incoming data.”







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Feb 24,2015
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Greece's proposed reforms - Reuters




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reuters have released the text of the letter outlining Greeces proposed reforms forwarded by the Minister of Finance of the Hellenic Republic to the Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem.

The Letter

I. Fiscal structural policies

Tax policies - Greece commits to:

Reform VAT policy, administration and enforcement. Robust efforts will be made to improve collection and fight evasion making full use of electronic means and other technological innovations. VAT policy will be rationalised in relation to rates that will be streamlined in a manner that maximises actual revenues without a negative impact on social justice, and with a view to limiting exemptions while eliminating unreasonable discounts.

Modify the taxation of collective investment and income tax expenditures which will be integrated in the income tax code.

Broaden definition of tax fraud and evasion while disbanding tax immunity.

Modernising the income tax code and eliminating from it tax code exemptions and replacing them, when necessary, with social justice enhancing measures.

Resolutely enforce and improve legislation on transfer pricing.

Work toward creating a new culture of tax compliance to ensure that all sections of society, and especially the well-off, contribute fairly to the financing of public policies. In this context, establish with the assistance of European and international partners, a wealth database that assists the tax authorities in gauging the veracity of previous income tax returns.

Public Finance Management - Greece will:







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Feb 24,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.com - Round 35 success stories arrived!

As promised, OctaFX publishes Success Stories of OctaFX Champion demo contest Round 35 winners! This week, our main winner Mr. Susilo Aji from Indonesia, surprised us with his emotional interview and we are happy to present it to you!



1st place Mr. Susilo Aji from Indonesia treated our contest like a holiday:

Ouw my God!!! I can't believe it!... let me calm my mind first please..

I am very very happy to receive this news. Being the champion of this famous contest had made me a little bit proud of myself. Truth be told I joined this contest on a whim, since I have to measure how far my trading skill has gotten. And contest is a perfect place to measure that, right? After all, I am still "amateur" trader, so I will need a lot and a lot of training and measuring for that.

I don't think that I am better than anyone tough... May be I was able to win because I was able to enjoy the contest. Like I said earlier I wanted to measure my skill, so I was able to enjoy trading like it was my holiday. I believe we can see more "clearly" to the thing we enjoy, right? So, I think the key to success is "never forget to enjoy yourself"!

I only took a glance about 1 minute every day on my mt4. there are 4 pairs on display, it was EU, GU, UJP, and AUD. And from the record you can see I only have 19 trades on them, so as you can guess I was aiming to mastering sniping. However, with that kind of strategy it was almost impossible to take me to the first place in the contest.

May be around the second week on the contest. Suddenly every pair and every position on my trade going my way. It feels great to see the candle favor you. I believe that everyone must feel the same when it happens...

Its been a year and 2 months since I trading. Even so I can't call myself a full-fledged trader. But my friend say it takes about 2 years to be a professional trader. I think it makes sense in some way. Therefore, we experience the annual moment and couple reversals at least. Then, we can call ourselves traders or we can just enjoying what we do. There will always be that option for us.

Lastly, I'd like to thank you OctaFX, for this wonderful contest. This is where people from round the world squeeze their brains out to become number one. We traders always need something like this. In that way, there will be new born great traders in your circle. Youve made great contribution in the trader's future.

We really appreciate what you have done.



2nd place Mr. Alberico Catizone from Italy won his prize effortlessly:

The last 10 days I have done almost nothing, if I knew I was so close to the first place I would have committed more. I used the trend line.

It takes discipline to do forex if you think positive you have more chance to win but if you think negative lose safe.



3rd place Mr. Purwo Atmantyo from Indonesia relies on experience and technical analysis:

Learn, be diligent, and pray! My strategy is "keep learning" and continue to try a variety of existing techniques and develop them according to my ability. My spectacular profit is when my technical analysis exactly just as I expected.



The last runner in the contest Mr. Nur Faisal from Indonesia wants to improve his trading:

Scalping strategy may be less successful for me. I use EA in trading so do not spend a lot of my time for other work. For now, I have yet to produce a successful trading, and seek to achieve it. I love to use EA because trading can be done with ease. I hope that next year I will be successful again.

Want to find your name and story in our news join OctaFX Champion Demo contest.

Be the Champion with OctaFX!


Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

Wishing you luck and profitable trading, yours truly, OctaFX!

OctaFX.com - Round 35 success stories arrived!

As promised, OctaFX publishes Success Stories of OctaFX Champion demo contest Round 35 winners! This week, our main winner Mr. Susilo Aji from Indonesia, surprised us with his emotional interview and we are happy to present it to you!



1st place Mr. Susilo Aji from Indonesia treated our contest like a holiday:

Ouw my God!!! I can't believe it!... let me calm my mind first please..

I am very very happy to receive this news. Being the champion of this famous contest had made me a little bit proud of myself. Truth be told I joined this contest on a whim, since I have to measure how far my trading skill has gotten. And contest is a perfect place to measure that, right? After all, I am still "amateur" trader, so I will need a lot and a lot of training and measuring for that.

I don't think that I am better than anyone tough... May be I was able to win because I was able to enjoy the contest. Like I said earlier I wanted to measure my skill, so I was able to enjoy trading like it was my holiday. I believe we can see more "clearly" to the thing we enjoy, right? So, I think the key to success is "never forget to enjoy yourself"!

I only took a glance about 1 minute every day on my mt4. there are 4 pairs on display, it was EU, GU, UJP, and AUD. And from the record you can see I only have 19 trades on them, so as you can guess I was aiming to mastering sniping. However, with that kind of strategy it was almost impossible to take me to the first place in the contest.

May be around the second week on the contest. Suddenly every pair and every position on my trade going my way. It feels great to see the candle favor you. I believe that everyone must feel the same when it happens...

Its been a year and 2 months since I trading. Even so I can't call myself a full-fledged trader. But my friend say it takes about 2 years to be a professional trader. I think it makes sense in some way. Therefore, we experience the annual moment and couple reversals at least. Then, we can call ourselves traders or we can just enjoying what we do. There will always be that option for us.

Lastly, I'd like to thank you OctaFX, for this wonderful contest. This is where people from round the world squeeze their brains out to become number one. We traders always need something like this. In that way, there will be new born great traders in your circle. Youve made great contribution in the trader's future.

We really appreciate what you have done.



2nd place Mr. Alberico Catizone from Italy won his prize effortlessly:

The last 10 days I have done almost nothing, if I knew I was so close to the first place I would have committed more. I used the trend line.

It takes discipline to do forex if you think positive you have more chance to win but if you think negative lose safe.



3rd place Mr. Purwo Atmantyo from Indonesia relies on experience and technical analysis:

Learn, be diligent, and pray! My strategy is "keep learning" and continue to try a variety of existing techniques and develop them according to my ability. My spectacular profit is when my technical analysis exactly just as I expected.



The last runner in the contest Mr. Nur Faisal from Indonesia wants to improve his trading:

Scalping strategy may be less successful for me. I use EA in trading so do not spend a lot of my time for other work. For now, I have yet to produce a successful trading, and seek to achieve it. I love to use EA because trading can be done with ease. I hope that next year I will be successful again.

Want to find your name and story in our news join OctaFX Champion Demo contest.

Be the Champion with OctaFX!


Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

Wishing you luck and profitable trading, yours truly, OctaFX!

Yellen to make it clear that Fed’s ‘patience’ is not limitless – BBH




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team comments on the upcoming testimony of Yellen, further expecting her to explain why Fed’s patience with emergency-level rates may be drawing to a close.

Key Quotes

“The leadership at the Federal Reserve had led many to expect a mid-year lift off. However, doubts have grown, and this has corresponded with a consolidative phase for the dollar.”

“After the FOMC minutes, the December Fed funds futures contract implied an average effective rate of less than 50 bp. Although the market corrected this view a little before the weekend, we expect Yellen make it clear the Fed's patience is not limitless."

“A hike, not today or tomorrow, but four months from now is still reasonable.”

“The Fed's leadership has been preparing the market gradually for a change in US monetary policy. The emergency settings that were so necessary in the darkest days are no longer needed. To be sure, the economy is not firing on all cylinders, but no one is really talking about a dramatic increase in interest rates.”

“Look for Yellen to be patient with US Congress as she explains why the Fed's patience with emergency-level rates may be drawing to a close, and that this is a constructive sign. It is also through this lens that Yellen will likely address questions about the dollar. The exchange value of the dollar is one of the factors taken into account in assessing the monetary conditions."

“The dollar's strength is a reflection of the relative performance of the US economy. Of course, part of the dollar's rise has been fueled by expectations of a Fed hike. Such anticipation will not be an important hurdle to the decision to hike rates later.”







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Feb 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Technical outlook: Short-term treasuries oversold – RBS




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Paul Fage, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at TD Securities, expects the CBRT to cut its benchmark repo rate by 50bp to 7.25% in tomorrow’s MPC meeting, expecting further cuts if inflation continues to fall.

Key Quotes

“At tomorrow’s (24 February) MPC meeting we expect the CBRT (Central Bank of Turkey) to cut its benchmark repo rate by 50 bp to 7.25%. The median consensus expectation is for a 25 bp cut, although 8 out of the 18 economists surveyed expect a cut of 50 bp or more.”

“We also expect the Overnight Borrowing and Lending rates to both be cut by 50 bp, bringing them down to 7.0% and 10.75% respectively.”

“We think that the CBRT will cut the benchmark repo rate by 50 bp, this representing a compromise between political pressure on the one hand, and being able to present the move to the markets as being ‘measured’ on the other.”

“We think a cut of 25-50 bp is pretty much priced into the FX market. Anything more than a 50 bp cut will cause USDTRY to rally, while if the CBRT remains on hold then we expect USDTRY to fall.”

“For the Xccy swap curve we expect a cut of more than 50 bp to lead to a steepening of the curve, with rates as a whole probably rising in response to the rally in USDTRY. If the CBRT remains on hold then we expect the curve to flatten with rates as a whole probably rallying in response to a weakening USDTRY.”

“Looking forward, as headline inflation continues to fall, we expect some further cuts after tomorrow’s 50 bp.”







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Feb 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Technical outlook: Short-term treasuries oversold – RBS




FXStreet (Barcelona) - William O’Donnell, Head of US Treasury Strategy at RBS, gives the technical outlook for US treasuries, viewing that technicals for benchmark rates are pretty mixed with short term studies hinting at oversold conditions while long term studies stay overbought.

Key Quotes

“Treasuries are modestly higher as markets await Yellen's testimony tomorrow.”

“Bunds and Gilts are weaker (though off the overnight lows) and peripheral EU debt spreads have tightened with Greek 10yr spreads ~60bp tighter this morning. Portuguese 10yr rates fell below 10y Treasury yields for the first time since 2007 this morning."

“Our overnight US rates flows saw bank portfolio buying in 3's, 7's and 10's and some scattered paying in 10yr rate. Overnight inter-dealer Treasury volume (4pm to 6am) was 98% of the 10-day average volume for the overnight session.”

“2s (0.638%)– Next major support doesn't emerge until ~0.80% where we found buyers back in the spring of 2011. Resistance seen at 0.40% where we'd close a gap left behind in late October. Daily momentum is still mixed and still oversold.”

“5s (1.60%)– Next major support comes in at 1.80% and just above. Nearby resistance lines up at ~1.49%. Daily momentum is mixed and still oversold.”

“10s (2.12%)–Next resistance comes in at ~1.96%, the Feb 12th lows that we recently rebounded off of. Next support comes in ~2.40% with major support at 2.66% after that. Daily momentum is mixed but into oversold readings.”

“30s (2.725%)– Bonds don't have any solid support until 3.105%, the November "lows." Local resistance is ~2.54%. Daily momentum is mixed and still showing oversold readings.”







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Feb 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

EUR/USD deeply oversold – FXMarketAlerts




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The FXMarketAlerts Team gives the technical outlook and key levels for EUR/USD.

Key Quotes

“Mkt. has been under pressure all morning with sub 1.13 reached.”

“Indicators are at extremes now so we doubt 1.1278 will give way without a decent reaction first. Res. is in the 1.1345/60 band.”

“Sup. is at the previously mentioned 1.1278 closely followed by 1.1260/69.”

“R1: 1.1345/60 intraday level”

“R2: 1.1390/95 intraday level”

“R3: 1.1412 today high”

“S1: 1.1278 Fri low”

“S2: 1.1260/9 * 9 Feb low”

“S3: 1.1223 * 27 Jan low”







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Feb 23,2015
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USD firmer ahead of Yellen – TDS




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, mentions that Yellen’s testimony is expected to be a little hawkish relative to expectations, with USD trading firmer at the start of the week, already discounting the expected tone of the speech.

Key Quotes

“We expect the Fed messaging to remain relatively upbeat; market expectations may be coloured by the release of the “low for longer” minutes from the January FOMC last week but it is important to remember that after the January policy meeting took place, the January NFP report delivered some solid-looking data.”

“We think Yellen’s comments may appear a little hawkish relative to market expectations and we continue to view the Fed as moving towards rate lift off later this year (Q3).”

“The USD is trading firmly at the start of the week and US 10y yields are nudging close to recent highs, perhaps already discounting the expected tone of the comments.”






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Feb 23,2015
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Gold recovers slightly ahead of the US data




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices recovered from the low of USD 1190.70/Oz to trade at USD 1196/Oz levels ahead of the regional manufacturing indices and existing home sales data in the US.

Strong USD weighs over Gold prices

The yellow metal came under pressure due to the strength in the US dollar ahead of the Fed. Chairman Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to the Congress tomorrow. Furthermore, the fading concern regarding the Greek debt deal is capping the safe haven demand for the metal. The metal could extend losses ahead if the US Chicago and Dallas activity indices print higher than expected, while the Existing home sales rise more than the expected contraction of 0.8% month-on-month.

In the meantime, the positive action in the US equity futures and other major European equity markets could keep the metal under pressure.

Gold Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1200, above which gains could be extended to 1206.3 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1190 and 1186 levels.






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Feb 23,2015
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AUD/NZD drops to fresh lows on falling commodity prices




FXStreet (Mumbai) - AUD/NZD dropped in the European session, hovering near fresh session lows largely on the back of Aussie weakness, dragged down by declining commodity prices.

AUD/NZD inches towards multi-year lows

Currently, the AUD/NZD cross trades lower by -0.50% at 1.0370 levels, with a days high of 1.0431 and days lows posted at 1.0364. The cross in AUD/NZD edged lower, mainly pulled down by the Australian dollar on declining prices of bullion and copper, with the safe-haven appeal of bullion easing given the euro zone-Greece deal late on Friday, as investors moved their investments to riskier assets.

On the other side of the story, NZD also remains weak against the US dollar. However, the losses in the Aussie are greater than that in the NZD/USD pair. At the moment, AUD/USD trades -0.65% lower at 0.7790 levels, while NZD/USD trades -0.15% at 0.7514 levels.

AUD/NZD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.0431 levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.0445 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.0347 levels, from here it to below 1.0300 levels.






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Feb 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

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USD/JPY approaches weekly lows




FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY has fallen to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the American session as a cautious tone dominates markets as Eurogroup and Greece continue to negotiate a loan agreement.

USD/JPY is tracking US Tsy yields down, having dropped to a 3-day low of 118.29 in recent dealings despite above expectations Markit manufacturing PMI data. With the calendar empty for the rest of the day, Greek headlines will likely drive price action during the next hours. The Eurogroup is scheduled to meet at 16:30 GMT.

USD/JPY is currently trading at the 118.35 zone, recording a 0.48% loss on the day. The pair is also on track to post its second weekly loss in a row, extending a correction from above 120.00.

USD/JPY technical levels

As for technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 118.23 (Feb 17 low) and 118.00 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 118.77 (intraday level), 119.00/05 (psychological level/200-hour SMA) and 119.17 (Feb 19 high).






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Feb 20,2015
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DN to remain ‘on-hold’ for the next 12 months – Danske Bank




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Danmarks Nationalbank could refrain from cutting further its key rate for the next twelve months, suggested Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“The net position indicates that FX intervention purchases have been above DKK100bn since the 25bp rate cut on 5 February”.

“Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) has refrained from cutting the key rate despite this significant inflow, which indicates that FX intervention purchases appears to be the preferred tool to fend off DKK appreciation pressure”.

“Although further rate cuts cannot be completely ruled out, the bar is high and it will likely take an acceleration in inflow for DN to cut further. We thus expect the bank to keep rates unchanged on a 12M time horizon”.






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Feb 20,2015
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AUD/USD: 0.8034 is key to alleviate downside pressure - CB




FXStreet (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD continues to hold sideways to higher near term.

Key Quotes:

"The market recently again held over the base of the 2013-2015 down channel at 0.7597."

"Above the 20 day ma lies the downtrend at 0.7990 and the 7th Jan low at 0.8034."

"A close above here is needed to alleviate downside pressure."

"Below 0.7597 we have very little support apart from the 0.7335, 50% retracement of the move up from 2001."





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Feb 20,2015
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An agreement today won’t mark the end to ‘Greek’ problems – DB




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Deutsche Bank Team comments on the relevance of the Greece’s loan-extension request, noting that even if an agreement is reached today, it will only be the first step to a long road of discussions.

Key Quotes

“Assuming an agreement is indeed reached, it is important to point out that this will only mark the very first step in what is still a long road to resolution to the Greek crisis.”

“First, it is unlikely Europeans approve any fund disbursements or an increase in t-bill issuance after the loan extension has been granted. Fund disbursement will require the completion of prior actions by the Greek government. These remain to be specified and negotiated -"part two" of the three-step process we have been describing.”

“Second, the Greek government will need to be able to pass any such agreements through the Greek parliament, starting with the loan extension itself which will need to be ratified ("part three". Completing all steps in this three-part process will be a challenge.”

“On the positive side, a potential "agreement" tomorrow will provide a little breathing room to the Greek financial system."

“Still, even ongoing ECB funding will only buy a few weeks, because it will not solve the Greek government's exceptionally tight cash position. Press reports suggest that the government will struggle to fulfill financial obligations beyond March, with a potential default likely to lead to a suspension of ELA funding.”

“Over the next few weeks, Greece will, therefore, need to achieve substantial progress on fleshing out the exact parameters of the program as well as voting legislation through parliament.”

“For this to materialize, agreement needs to be reached at Eurogroup, with another breakdown again bringing ECB liquidity provision back into immediate question.”






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Feb 20,2015
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CAD rallies, but within monthly range – Scotiabank




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, shares the outlook and key technical levels for USD/CAD, noting that the core risk for CAD lies in Yellen and Poloz’s speech.

Key Quotes

“Increasingly the focus for CAD traders is over the outlook for monetary policy, making next week’s testimony by Chair Yellen and speech by Governor Poloz core risks. Expectations for a second interest rate cut in Canada have remained relatively constant over the last week, with the market pricing in at least one more cut over the next six months. This combined with oil prices that have stabilized but could still be pressured lower, leave CAD vulnerable.”

“USDCAD short‐term technicals: mixed—likely reflecting the range bound environment that USDCAD has been trading within.”

“Support lies at 1.2380 with resistance at 1.2504 (the 21‐day MA); however neither of these levels are particularly strong.”






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EIA fails to match API’s high oil inventory numbers, but overall tone intact - KBC




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Team comments on the Energy Information Agency’s oil inventory data release and its impact on the market.

Key Quotes

“Although yesterday’s Energy Information Agency (EIA) data did not confirm Wednesday’s report from the American Petroleum Institute as far as the volume of increase in crude oil inventories is concerned (the API report had foreseen more than 14 million barrels build in inventories which, if it had been confirmed, would have marked an all-time high), it left the overall message intact.”

“The data showed about twice as large build in stocks than the one that had been anticipated by analysts at the beginning of this week.”

“The oil price therefore fell by about 0.5% yesterday while the US benchmark WTI even lost about 1.9% as inventories in Cushing, the delivery location of NYMEX WTI futures contract, rose by about 3.6 million barrels.”

“Rising stocks in Cushing suggest that traders have recently been taking advantage of relatively wide contango in the front-end of oil forward curve.”

“All in all, recent EIA data reminded us that although the supply elasticity of “shale oil” likely is much higher than that of “conventional oil”, it will take some time before the impact of lower oil prices on the US supply is more pronounced. For example, the data showed that US domestic crude oil production increased by more than 800 thousand barrels per day visà- vis June 2014. Let us recall that in the meantime, the oil price fell by about one half…”








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Higher Eurozone PMIs support the stronger recovery view - Danske




FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Pernille Bomholdt Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, the improving PMIs and the expected increase in Manufacturing PMIs ahead, signals towards a stronger Q1 growth in the Eurozone.

Key Quotes

The euro area composite PMI increased to 53.5 in February from 52.6 in January and is now at the highest level since summer last year. The increase was driven by the services PMI, which rose to 53.9 from 52.7 whereas the manufacturing PMI was almost unchanged at 51.1.

For the manufacturing PMI the details were better than the headline figure. First, new orders increased a bit, driven by higher export orders.

Added to this, there was a decline in stocks of finished goods implying the order-inventory balance increased. This now points to an increase in manufacturing PMI going forward.

The stronger services PMI was driven by higher future business expectations and incoming new business, but there was also an increase in backlog of work. The services PMI employment index increased to the highest level since May 2011.

The increase in services PMI is likely to reflect the boost to private consumption from the decline in the oil price and it suggests private consumption will increase further in Q1.

The improvement in the PMIs and the signal that manufacturing PMI could increase further is in line with our view that euro GDP growth will be strong in Q1.

For 2015 we expect GDP growth of 1.5% which is above consensus at 1.2%.








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