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USD/JPY climbs back above 121.00



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Following a quick drop to the 120.70 area at the beginning of the session on the back of weak US retail sales data, USD/JPY managed to bounce off lows and climbed back above the 121 mark.

The dollar was already under pressure before data as it goes through a corrective phase. USD/JPY bottomed out at 120.68 but managed to bounce toward the 121.25 zone in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 121.20 zone, still down 0.19% below its opening price.

USD/JPY technical outlook

“In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators have crossed below their midlines, but lost the bearish potential and turned flat in negative territory”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “A price acceleration below the daily low however, may push the pair further down, eyeing then an approach to the critical 120.00 figure”.

Bednarik locates next support levels at 120.65, 120.30 and 120.00, while she places resistances at 121.40, 121.85 and 122.30.







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Mar 12,2015
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USD/JPY climbs back above 121.00



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Following a quick drop to the 120.70 area at the beginning of the session on the back of weak US retail sales data, USD/JPY managed to bounce off lows and climbed back above the 121 mark.

The dollar was already under pressure before data as it goes through a corrective phase. USD/JPY bottomed out at 120.68 but managed to bounce toward the 121.25 zone in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 121.20 zone, still down 0.19% below its opening price.

USD/JPY technical outlook

“In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators have crossed below their midlines, but lost the bearish potential and turned flat in negative territory”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “A price acceleration below the daily low however, may push the pair further down, eyeing then an approach to the critical 120.00 figure”.

Bednarik locates next support levels at 120.65, 120.30 and 120.00, while she places resistances at 121.40, 121.85 and 122.30.







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Mar 12,2015
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EUR/USD falling quickly towards parity – BTMU



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD for the week ahead, with Fed expected to raise expectations for the mid-year rate hike in its upcoming meeting the EUR will continue to slide.

Key Quotes

“The euro is likely to remain under downward pressure against the US dollar in the week ahead. The market has parity firmly in its sights now and there is little left in the way of technical support between the current spot rate and parity.”

“The widening divergence monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is likely to be highlighted again at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to signal it remains on course to gradually begin raising rates from around the middle of this year.”

“Dropping the signal that it can be “patient” before normalizing policy is likely to encourage higher short-term US yields supporting a stronger US dollar.”

“In contrast the ECB’s aggressive easing is proving increasingly successful at both lowering nominal and real yields in the euro-zone and weakening the euro.”

“Investor sentiment is also being soured at the margin in the near-term by the high implementation risks surrounding the recent agreement in principle to extend financing support to Greece.”

“EUR/USD – Bearish Bias – (1.0300-1.0800)”







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Mar 12,2015
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USD/CAD bounces at 1.2615 and rises to 1.2680



FXStreet (Tokyo) - After falling 150 pips from 1.2765, the USD/CAD finally found support at 1.2615 where it experienced a buying interest that sent it back to 1.2680.

Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2672, down 0.60% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2770 and low at 1.2617. USD/CAD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

USD/CAD levels

If the pair extends its bounce from 1.2615, next resistance will be found at 1.2700, 1.2770 and 1.2800. TO the downside, supports are at the mentioned 1.2615, then 1.2600 and 1.2570.







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Mar 12,2015
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Brent back below USD 58.00/barrel



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent prices are back below USD 58/barrel as the US dollar index recovered part of its losses.

Brent supported by unrest in the middle east

Iraqi security forces and mainly Shi'ite militia exchanged fire with Islamic State fighters in Tikrit on Thursday, a day after pushing into Saddam Hussein's home city in their biggest offensive yet against the militants.

Prices had rose above USD 58.00/barrel as the USD had weakened after the retail sales contracted for the third month in a row. However, the weakness in the USD index was short lived as the greenback made a comeback on an upbeat weekly jobless claims data. The USD index recovered from the low of 98.65 to trade higher at 99.20 levels. Consequently, Brent futures were pushed below USD 58.00/barrel.

Brent Crude Technical Levels

The April futures currently trade at USD 57.90/barrel, up 0.74% for the day. The immediate resistance is seen at 58.06, above which gains could be extended to 58.70 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 57.60 and 57.00 levels.





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Mar 12,2015
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EUR/USD potential test of parity by mid-year – Westpac



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Strategist Richard Franulovich at Westpac, the pair could attempt a visit to the parity level by the mid of the present year.

Key Quotes

“EUR looks very wounded here as both cyclical and structural forces continue to weigh”.

“Pockets of better data (especially business surveys) in response to the sharp easing in Eurozone financial conditions will likely prove to be nothing more than opportunities to sell EUR, as policy differentials continue to swing in the USD’s favour and net fixed income outflows pick up pace”.

“Would watch 10yr bund yields for near term direction. Price action of late suggests concerns about lopsided positions are overdone with EUR/USD seemingly intent on testing parity before mid-year”.






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Mar 12,2015
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AUD/USD peeks above 0.7700



FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD extended its recovery from nearly 6-year lows and climbed to 3-day highs above 0.7700 as the greenback continued to correct following strong gains.

The US dollar retreated further following weaker than expected US retail sales figures, sending AUD/USD to a high of 0.7729 before the 200-hour SMA offered resistance. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7695, recording a 1.65% gain on the day.

The recovery of the Australian dollar was also helped by solid domestic employment data published during the Asian session. The Australian economy added 15.6K new jobs in February versus 15.0K expected, while the jobless rate inched down to 6.3%, matching forecast.

AUD/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate resistances at 0.7729 (daily high) and 0.7750 (Mar 3 low). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.7660 (100-hour SMA) and 0.7600 (psychological level) ahead of 0.7560 (2015 low Mar 11).





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Mar 12,2015
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EUR/USD consolidates above 1.0600



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is now looking to consolidate the recent break above the 1.06 handle vs. the dollar, with EUR/USD meandering around 1.0630 so far.

EUR/USD stronger on risk, USD weakness

The selling mood around the greenback is not giving up so far, bolstering the better tone in the pair, which is now trying to cement the recent breakout of 1.06 the figure. The pair managed to shrug off the initial weakness that sent the euro to test fresh 12-year lows at 1.0494 overnight, advancing since then along with a rising profit-taking bias in the USD.

Poor US retail sales during February added to the USD softness, with the Reuters/Michigan index due tomorrow as the only relevant release left in the week (95.5 exp. in March).

EUR/USD levels to consider

The pair is advancing 0.68% at 1.0619 with the next hurdle at 1.0718 (high Mar.11) followed by 1.0757 (100-h MA) and then 1.0855 (high Mar.10). On the downside, a breach of 1.0494 (12-year low Mar.12) would expose 1.0335 (2003 low Jan.2) and finally 1.0207 (low Dec.19 2002).






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Mar 12,2015
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USD/CAD dips to 1.2620 on data



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback remains on the defensive camp on Thursday, now dragging USD/CAD to session lows around 1.2620.

USD/CAD weaker post-US calendar

The pair is extending its descent after overnight peaks around 1.2770 against a backdrop of a softer dollar in the global markets. Spot gained further selling momentum after disappointing data from the US retail sales, dropping 0.6% MoM in February and 0.1% excluding the Autos sector.

In the Canadian docket, New Housing Price Index contracted 0.1% in February and gained 1.4% on a yearly basis.

USD/CAD key levels

At the moment the pair is retreating 0.79% at 1.2648 with the next support at 1.2617 (low Mar.11) ahead of 1.2598 (low Mar.10) and finally 1.2574 (low Mar.9). On the upside, a breakout of 1.2772 (high Feb.2) would open the door to 1.2800 (2015 high Jan.30) and then 1.2845 (high Mar.13 2009).







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Mar 12,2015
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Next weeks FOMC to be USD positive - Westpac



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Richard Franulovich of Westpac, remain bullish for USD, expecting growth differential and the expected drop of patience in next weeks FOMC meeting to boost dollars strength.

Key Quotes

Global forces continue to conspire in the USDs favour, the latest vignettes in recent days playing to the USDs advantage including weaker China activity data, a strong US Feb payrolls, a plunge in German 10yr yields to an eye watering 20bp and renewed weakness in commodity prices (though that may be as much a reflection of USD gains).

A look back at USD price action going into past Fed tightening cycles suggests USD consistently gains further ground into the first hike but thereafter consolidation is the order of the day.

We stick with a bullish outlook as policy and growth differentials between the US on the one side and China, Japan and the Eurozone on the other side continue to break in the USDs favour.

Next weeks FOMC meeting likely to play USD positive with the Fed likely to drop patience from their lexicon and June Fed lift off odds likely to firm further.







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Mar 12,2015
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Bunds to remain bid – TDS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - With European yields falling due to Draghi’s bond purchases, Tim Davis, Vice President, Global Strategist at TD Securities, assesses that Bunds might remain bid, further maintaining the Q2 0.30% forecast for 10y bunds.

Key Quotes

“In previous cases of QE in the UK and US, we have seen yields start to rise soon after purchases began, partly as a result of inflation expectations reflating.”

“However, we think that this is unlikely to happen at least over the next quarter in the bund market, given that it is investors who have to reduce their bund holdings rather than the central bank merely buying the increased size of the bond market.”

“We reiterate our 0.30% 10y bund forecast for end Q2.”

“We think that the net negative supply will be enough to stop bunds selling off with other global bond markets.”






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Mar 11,2015
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Bunds to remain bid – TDS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - With European yields falling due to Draghi’s bond purchases, Tim Davis, Vice President, Global Strategist at TD Securities, assesses that Bunds might remain bid, further maintaining the Q2 0.30% forecast for 10y bunds.

Key Quotes

“In previous cases of QE in the UK and US, we have seen yields start to rise soon after purchases began, partly as a result of inflation expectations reflating.”

“However, we think that this is unlikely to happen at least over the next quarter in the bund market, given that it is investors who have to reduce their bund holdings rather than the central bank merely buying the increased size of the bond market.”

“We reiterate our 0.30% 10y bund forecast for end Q2.”

“We think that the net negative supply will be enough to stop bunds selling off with other global bond markets.”






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Mar 11,2015
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Bunds to remain bid – TDS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - With European yields falling due to Draghi’s bond purchases, Tim Davis, Vice President, Global Strategist at TD Securities, assesses that Bunds might remain bid, further maintaining the Q2 0.30% forecast for 10y bunds.

Key Quotes

“In previous cases of QE in the UK and US, we have seen yields start to rise soon after purchases began, partly as a result of inflation expectations reflating.”

“However, we think that this is unlikely to happen at least over the next quarter in the bund market, given that it is investors who have to reduce their bund holdings rather than the central bank merely buying the increased size of the bond market.”

“We reiterate our 0.30% 10y bund forecast for end Q2.”

“We think that the net negative supply will be enough to stop bunds selling off with other global bond markets.”






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Mar 11,2015
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Soft data raising concerns about China’s growth story – Danske



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, Flemming J. Nielsen, reviews the recent Chinese data releases to conclude that the soft data is indicative of – downward risk to GDP forecast of 7.0%, further cut in interest rates and RRR, and rise in speculation that PBoC might allow CNY to depreciate.

Key Quotes

“For January and February as a whole, growth in fixed asset investment eased to 13.9% y/y (consensus: 15.0% YTD, y/y) compared to January and February last year after increasing 15.0% YTD, y/y in December.”

“Retail sales for January and February as a whole eased to 10.7% y/y (consensus: 11.6% y/y) compared with the same period last year after increasing 10.9% y/y in December last year.”

“On the surface, today’s data suggest that there could already be downside risk to the 7% growth target for 2015 the Chinese government announced last week. We will probably have to cut our 7.2% GDP growth forecast for 2015. That said, we would be more confident in a downward revision if the weakness evident in the hard industrial production data is also confirmed in the manufacturing PMIs in the coming months.”

“With downside risk to the government’s growth target, it also appears that there will be more monetary and fiscal easing in China than we have assumed so far. The reserve requirement could be cut by more than 100bp and another interest rate cut looks increasingly likely.”

“The weak data could also increase speculation that China will allow its currency to depreciate, although we still expect the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to keep the current daily trading band broadly unchanged.”






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Mar 11,2015
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Soft data raising concerns about China’s growth story – Danske



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, Flemming J. Nielsen, reviews the recent Chinese data releases to conclude that the soft data is indicative of – downward risk to GDP forecast of 7.0%, further cut in interest rates and RRR, and rise in speculation that PBoC might allow CNY to depreciate.

Key Quotes

“For January and February as a whole, growth in fixed asset investment eased to 13.9% y/y (consensus: 15.0% YTD, y/y) compared to January and February last year after increasing 15.0% YTD, y/y in December.”

“Retail sales for January and February as a whole eased to 10.7% y/y (consensus: 11.6% y/y) compared with the same period last year after increasing 10.9% y/y in December last year.”

“On the surface, today’s data suggest that there could already be downside risk to the 7% growth target for 2015 the Chinese government announced last week. We will probably have to cut our 7.2% GDP growth forecast for 2015. That said, we would be more confident in a downward revision if the weakness evident in the hard industrial production data is also confirmed in the manufacturing PMIs in the coming months.”

“With downside risk to the government’s growth target, it also appears that there will be more monetary and fiscal easing in China than we have assumed so far. The reserve requirement could be cut by more than 100bp and another interest rate cut looks increasingly likely.”

“The weak data could also increase speculation that China will allow its currency to depreciate, although we still expect the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to keep the current daily trading band broadly unchanged.”






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Mar 11,2015
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USD/JPY is higher, but vulnerable to a round of risk aversion – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, expects USD/JPY to trade higher over time but near-term vulnerability might be seen in the pair as risk aversion falls.

Key Quotes

“After trading to fresh 7.5 year highs during Tuesday’s session, USDJPY is entering the NA session close to these levels.”

“Fundamental data included vaguely better than expected machine orders and PPI; however the core driver of USDJPY has been the USD side of the equation.”

“We expect USDJPY to trend higher over time, but see it less vulnerable than others in the near‐term as rising risk aversion will begin to suppress USDJPY upside risk.”





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Mar 11,2015
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USD/JPY is higher, but vulnerable to a round of risk aversion – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, expects USD/JPY to trade higher over time but near-term vulnerability might be seen in the pair as risk aversion falls.

Key Quotes

“After trading to fresh 7.5 year highs during Tuesday’s session, USDJPY is entering the NA session close to these levels.”

“Fundamental data included vaguely better than expected machine orders and PPI; however the core driver of USDJPY has been the USD side of the equation.”

“We expect USDJPY to trend higher over time, but see it less vulnerable than others in the near‐term as rising risk aversion will begin to suppress USDJPY upside risk.”





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Mar 11,2015
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Session Recap: USD extends gains, EUR in 12-y lows



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD rally remains intact on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index trading in levels last seen in September 2003 beyond the 99.00 mark. Market expectations for a sooner than estimated rates hike by the Fed continue to bolster the USD upside, sending EUR/USD to test fresh 12-year lows in the area of 1.0560.

In his speech in Frankfurt today, President Mario Draghi stressed that the current monetary policy is bolstering the ‘green shots’ in the region, adding that the ‘quantitative easing’ programme should support a rebound in inflation expectations; consumer process, in the meantime, could extend their trend lower – even into negative ground – just to revert direction towards year end.

The sterling continues to find decent support around 1.5000 vs. the dollar, practically ignoring January’s less auspicious releases from Industrial and Manufacturing Production, coming in below consensus.

USD/JPY managed to recover the 121.00 handle and beyond after briefly dropping to the 120.80 area overnight, and seems it is consolidating around 121.30/40 after recent fresh peaks just above 122.00 the figure.

Greece continues to be in the headlines today, although the attention suddenly shifted away from debt talks after the Greek government said its ready to seize German assets as compensation for Nazi war crimes.





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Mar 11,2015
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Session Recap: USD extends gains, EUR in 12-y lows



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD rally remains intact on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index trading in levels last seen in September 2003 beyond the 99.00 mark. Market expectations for a sooner than estimated rates hike by the Fed continue to bolster the USD upside, sending EUR/USD to test fresh 12-year lows in the area of 1.0560.

In his speech in Frankfurt today, President Mario Draghi stressed that the current monetary policy is bolstering the ‘green shots’ in the region, adding that the ‘quantitative easing’ programme should support a rebound in inflation expectations; consumer process, in the meantime, could extend their trend lower – even into negative ground – just to revert direction towards year end.

The sterling continues to find decent support around 1.5000 vs. the dollar, practically ignoring January’s less auspicious releases from Industrial and Manufacturing Production, coming in below consensus.

USD/JPY managed to recover the 121.00 handle and beyond after briefly dropping to the 120.80 area overnight, and seems it is consolidating around 121.30/40 after recent fresh peaks just above 122.00 the figure.

Greece continues to be in the headlines today, although the attention suddenly shifted away from debt talks after the Greek government said its ready to seize German assets as compensation for Nazi war crimes.





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Mar 11,2015
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EUR/JPY finds support at 128.30; low since August 2013



FXStreet (Tokyo) - The Euro continues depressed on Wednesday and after falling 135 pips from 129.70 against the Japanese Yen, the EUR/JPY found support at 128.30, the lowest level since August 2013.

The EUR/JPY has posted 7 negative days in the last 8 session, losing more than 600 pips from March 3 highs of 134.45 to today's lows.

Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 128.66, down -0.71% on the day, having posted a daily high at 129.99 and low at 128.34. EUR/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

Euro to Yen exchange rate levels

If the pair falls below 128.30, it will find next supports at 128.00 and 127.10. To the upside, resistances are at 129.15, 129.70 and 130.00.







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Mar 11,2015
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EUR/JPY finds support at 128.30; low since August 2013



FXStreet (Tokyo) - The Euro continues depressed on Wednesday and after falling 135 pips from 129.70 against the Japanese Yen, the EUR/JPY found support at 128.30, the lowest level since August 2013.

The EUR/JPY has posted 7 negative days in the last 8 session, losing more than 600 pips from March 3 highs of 134.45 to today's lows.

Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 128.66, down -0.71% on the day, having posted a daily high at 129.99 and low at 128.34. EUR/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

Euro to Yen exchange rate levels

If the pair falls below 128.30, it will find next supports at 128.00 and 127.10. To the upside, resistances are at 129.15, 129.70 and 130.00.







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Mar 11,2015
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EM FX suffers the same fate as majors, USD to blame – BBH



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team explains that broad based USD strength has led to many EM currencies weaken against the dollar.

Key Quotes

“It’s been an ugly week for EM. We’ve already seen new multi-year highs for USD/BRL, USD/CLP, USD/COP, USD/MXN, USD/ILS, USD/ZAR, USD/IDR, USD/KRW, USD/MYR, and USD/SGD.”

“This goes hand in hand with several cycle highs this week for the dollar against many of the majors, including JPY, AUD, EUR, DKK, NOK, and SEK.”

“It's pretty unusual to see so many USD highs being set at one time, which just goes to show just how broad-based the current dollar rally really is.”

“Meanwhile, MSCI EM has given up its 2015 gains and is now down on the year. It's currently testing the 62% retrenchment objective of the December-February bounce near 941.20, and a break would target the December low near 906.25.”






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Mar 11,2015
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ECB should use all tools available to fulfil its mandate ECBs Praet



FXStreet (Mumbai) - European Central Bank (ECB) Board member Peter Praet said in a speech delivered at the Watchers XVI conference organized by the Center for Financial Studies in Frankfurt today, the decision by the ECB to expand its asset purchases was meant to send a clear signal that the central bank doesn't have an instrument vacuum.

Key Quotes:

"If monetary dominance is to prevail the central bank should not hesitate to use all the tools available to fulfill its mandate",

"Reaffirms the central pillar of monetary dominance which is our commitment to our mandate,"

"We acted because we saw a real risk of not achieving our price stability objective over the medium-term. One may argue that we could have tolerated a deviation of inflation from our aim (namely to stabilize inflation around levels not far from 2% in the price stability range) for longer. Yet in my view this would have extended the notion of the medium term to temporal dimensions that would have been hardly justifiable on the basis of accountability to our objective".

"The mandate is meaningful only if exercised and assessed within reasonable time limits".





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Mar 11,2015
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