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USD/JPY extends decline to 119.60



FXStreet (Tokyo) - The US dollar is extending its decline versus the Japanese Yen and after falling 60 pips from the 120.15 priced in the European morning, the USD/JPY is now testing daily lows at 119.60.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 119.64, down 0.32% on the day, having posted a daily high at 120.18 and low at 119.58. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

USD/JPY Forecast

Leading analyst at FBS Elizaveta Belugina affirmed in the USD/JPY Forecast Poll that "although the medium-term outlook is positive, right now USD/JPY has few drivers for a decisive growth."

On the other hand, Anil Panchal from Admiral Markets commented that the USD/JPY continues "maintaining the ascending trend channel, signaling an up-move. But the gains are restricted till 122.30."

US dollar to Yen exchange rate levels

If the pair manages to break below 119.60, it will find next supports at 119.30, 119.00 and 118.80. To the upside, resistances are at 119.80, 119.90 and 120.15.


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European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence above expectations (-5.95) in March: Actual (-3.7)



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Recent events in Europe bullish for Gold – Sunshine Profits




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Arkadiusz Sieroń of Sunshine Profits, explains that the possibility of Euro decline and the ongoing negative rate scenario is bullish for the saven haven asset Gold.

Key Quotes

“Negative deposit rates also impose some costs on banks, which may lower their profitability and even aggravate the problem of sluggish lending. Another important effect is the increase of a relative attractiveness of investing in alternatives, such as gold or Treasury bonds.”

“This is exactly what we are seeing right now. According to Bloomberg, in Switzerland, “investors are buying more gold as an alternative to hold Swiss franc cash deposits”.”

“Investors are eager to pay for holding safe assets, because they fear the collapse of the euro. You can think about such a deal as a currency playing or buying an option. Investors pay the premium, but when the Eurozone breaks up, they would hold gold, Swiss francs or bonds of the relative rich and stable northern countries like Germany, Denmark or Finland.”

“The recent events in Europe seem to be bullish for the gold market. The Eurozone crisis will come sooner or later. Investors predict rather sooner, at least drawing conclusions on the basis of the level of yields on Treasuries.”

“The central banks introducing negative interest rates and implementing quantitative easing (the Riksbank and the ECB), show that a global slowdown is on the horizon.”

“As we constantly repeat, gold is historically the best asset class during slowdowns. The safe haven demand (remember that the Swiss franc, which is traditionally considered as a safe haven currency, is now relatively less attractive) and very low real interest rates would also positively contribute to the prices of gold.”




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EM central bank decisions ahead in the week – TDS




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities reviewed this week’s central banks’ meetings in the EM space.

Key Quotes

“The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is to announce rates on Tuesday, and we expect the NBH to cuts its policy rate by 20bps to 1.9%, resuming easing after rates were cut the last time in July 2014”.

“Although growth data remains robust, continuing deflation means there is a risk that the NBH fails to reach its 3% inflation target in the medium term unless rates are cut”.

“We expect tomorrow’s cut to be followed by 30bps of further cuts (20bps + 10bps), bringing the easing cycle to an end”.

“On Thursday, we expect both Mexico’s Banxico and South Africa’s SARB to stay put at 3.00% and 5.75%, respectively, which is in line with consensus expectations”.




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S&P upgrades Hungary’s rating, but ECB QE might offset its positive impact – KBC




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team notes that with S&P upgrading Hungary’s rating by on notch to BB+, the positive impact of the rating could be offset by ECB’s QE and a probable rate cut in the country.

Key Quotes

“The CE currencies were generally under a modest pressure on Friday. In the end of the session, the forint was supported by an upgrade of Hungary’s credit rating by one notch to BB+ (with stable outlook) by S&P but the gains were rather limited.”

“The improved credit rating could support Hungarian assets in months to come, especially towards the backdrop of ongoing QE in the euro zone.”

“On the other hand, a rising probability of interest rate hike in the US and likely rate cut in Hungary (we expect the NBH to cut rates by 20 bps on Tuesday) could eventually offset the positive impact of the rating upgrade and ECB’s QE.”

“From this perspective, a new forecast that is to be released this week will be of key importance. If the inflation forecast for the next year was below 2 %, it could trigger a more dovish attitude of the NBH. This is, however, not our base scenario.”

“We expect inflation forecast above that level and therefore see rather cautious and gradual rate cut cycle.”




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Growth is gaining momentum – ECB’s Draghi




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, in his testimony before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs committee, said that the growth is gaining momentum in the Eurozone.

The momentum is mainly driven by a fall in oil prices, firming of external demand, easy financing conditions due to loose monetary policies, and due to depreciation of the Euro. Draghi said the upbeat economic view is clear from the ECB projections, which were visibly revised upwards.

On Inflation, the President said it is expected to remain low or negative in the months ahead. However, inflation expected to start rising by year end, due to higher aggregate demand, lower Euro and recovery of oil prices.

Draghi also said that the central bank sees an ample supplies of bonds, squashing fears of availability of bonds for its monthly EUR 60 billion QE program.





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Fed could now hike in September – Danske Bank




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In light of the last FOMC meeting, analysts at Danske Bank now see the Fed to start hiking in September (from June).

Key Quotes

“FOMC members have in general expressed a preference to err on the side of caution and tighten too late rather than too early. The revisions to the projected fed funds rate path at the FOMC meeting clearly showed that this remains the case”.

“This means that the bar for a June rate hike has increased. We will not only need to see strong labour market data but also a rebound in activity data and signs of stabilisation in core inflation or a pickup in wages”.

“This is still not impossible with three months of data left before June, but the odds that the FOMC will wait a few more months before lift-off have increased significantly”.





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Yellen acknowledged that USD strength partly reflected the strong US economy – BBH



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team, comments on the view of Yellen on USD strength in the post FOMC statement press conference, highlighting the Fed Chairman’s remarks on USD with respect to inflation, exports and the overall US economy.

Key Quotes

“Contrary to what some had expected, there was no mention of the dollar in the FOMC statement itself. Most of Yellen’s remark about the dollar during the press conference were not instigated by the Chair, but by inquiring reporters, many of whom later wrote stories about the increased importance of the dollar in setting Fed policy.”

“Yellen accepted that the rise in the dollar was one of the factors that were slowing exports Reporters did not press further: If the dollar was one of the factors, what were the others?”

“If they had, we suspect Yellen would have explained that the IMF and World Bank had cut their forecasts for world growth. We think that the data bears out our contention that the best thing for US exports is stronger world growth.”

“Yellen also noted that the strength of the dollar was dampening inflation through import prices. Many participants completely ignored the rest of her comments about this, and in particular that this was a transitory development.”

“Few reports covering the Fed thought it worth mentioning that Yellen acknowledged that the dollar’s appreciation was partly a reflection of the strength of the US economy.”

“We suggest that Yellen’s testimony before Congress in late February sheds light on Fed’s thinking. She indicated that the dampening impact of the rise of the dollar is broadly offset by the fall in oil prices.”

“The claim that Yellen has waded into the so-called currencies wars is far from the mark.”

“Indeed, we expect that the dollar will be stronger not weaker when the Fed raises interest rates.”





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EUR/USD rises above 1.09



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair rose to a fresh daily high of 1.0935 as markets anticipate an upbeat economic view from the ECB President Draghi in his testimony before the European Parliament in Brussels.

EUR/USD: Trades above a key Fib level

The pair rose above 1.09, which also happens to be a 23.6% retracement level of the up trend from 1.0461 to 1.1032. The EUR is being bought as markets believe the ECB president is likely to be more upbeat on the economy in his testimony today. Moreover, Draghi is likely to cheerlead the effects of the ECB’s QE but warn that reforms are necessary to make the recovery extended and long-lasting.

The ECB has already revised up its economic outlook, and Governing Council member Christian Noyer said today that asset purchases are an “important and clear signal” that monetary policy will remain expansionary over an extended period.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

At the moment, the pair is trading at 1.0924; up 0.97%. The immediate resistance is seen at 1.10, above which the pair could rise to 1.1033 levels. On the flip side, a break below 1.09 could push the pair back to 1.0850 levels.





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Switzerland should implement foreign currency QE IMF



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) board member Thomas Moser said today that the bank is open to the idea of foreign currency asset purchases suggested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In its annual assessment, the IMF proposed that Switzerland should ease monetary policy further" to bolster growth and reduce risks related to "very low inflation".

The IMF states, Purchases could consist of foreign currency assets, and perhaps some domestic assets - though scope for this is more limited - with the pace of purchases adjusted as necessary in response to developments. In addition the policy rate should be maintained at its current negative level for now, as this has been helpful in reducing franc appreciation and deflationary pressures.




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US Session recap: Another shaky day for the greenback



FXStreet (Guatemala) - The US session had good movements across the currency board, with a soft dollar at the outset for it to climb back and recover some lost ground on the day.

In markets on Friday, the sell-off came on when the Euro got some support on speculation Greece will receive an infusion of bailout money. The dollar was in decent supply and only managed to save some face in the closing hours.

Oil went through $46 per bbl and the Euro topped out at 1.0881. The yellow metal made a high of $1,188 from $1,169 while the S&P 500 was trading up over 1% while in the end, the index rose 18.65 points, or 0.9 percent, to 2,107.92.

EUR/USD is continuing its northern path in a chop, yet outside of the bearish channel from 1.1300 and in the upper half of the recent range on the minor bounce from current yearly lows made this month. 1.08 is supporting the pair on drifts to the downside and leaves the major on a positive note into next week.

The Canadian dollar had a good run on the weakness of the greenback that was in full supply, despite the unhealthy retail sales and in-line CPI's from the Canadian economy. so, 1.2725 down to 1.2543 was about the price action of today, one way, with a little stubbornness at 1.2600.

GBP/USD was also a one sided story, from 1.4760 to 1.4990 with resistance taking the major back to 1.492520 support. While the Aussie and Kiwi ended the weak the strongest vs the greenback.

AUD high was 0.7846, it is ending the week testing 0.7800 and despite being down to 0.7610, 20 pips of the week's low yesterday, it ends the week closing at 0.7775. The Kiwi is at 0.7563, tucked below the weeks high made today at 0.7592.






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EUR/USD technicals favour the upside FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that technicals remain in favour of upside moves for EUR/USD, with the pair correcting higher, eyeing 1.0800 levels.

Key Quotes

The EUR/USD pair advances to fresh daily highs above the 1.0750 level during the current European session, holding firm near the high, and with a mild positive tone in the 1 hour chart, as the price advances above a slightly bullish 20 SMA, whilst the RSI indicator heads strongly higher around 62 and the Momentum indicator holds above the 100 level, albeit lacking strength at the time being.

Earlier in the day, data showed that the current account of the euro area that recorded a surplus of 29.4 billion in January, although German PPI decreased by 2.1% yearly basis. There are no scheduled releases in the US for today, albeit a couple of FED members will be speaking in different events, and may affect the greenback should they refer to upcoming Central Bank moves.

The 4 hours chart technical picture also favors the upside, as the price extends above a bullish 20 SMA whilst the indicators maintain a strong upward momentum above their midlines.

Support levels: 1.0745 1.710 1.0660

Resistance levels: 1.0790 1.0830 1.0880





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Russia: Domestic demand down further– ING



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmitry Polevoy of ING Bank, reviews the domestic demand data of Russia, noting that the deterioration in private consumption and falling investments confirms that CBR’s focus on GDP risks is justified.

Key Quotes

“Domestic demand data for Feb-15 was mostly disappointing with real wages falling by 9.9% YoY (consensus: -8.8%, INGF: -9%), retail sales shrinking by 7.7% (consensus: - 5.8%, INGF: -6.2%) and unemployment rising to 5.8% (consensus :5.7%, INGF: 5.8%) with fixed capital investment losing 6.5% (consensus: -8.1%, INGF: -9.8%).”

“Also, producer prices gained 2.1% MoM/9.5% YoY (consensus: 1.1%/8.6%, INGF: 2.4%/9.8%), while the growth in the core manufacturing sector was down to 2.8% MoM from 3.3% in Jan-15, even if further accelerating in annual terms from 11.8% YoY to 14.4%.”

“According to our estimates, the drop in private consumption nearly doubled to 6.2% vs 3.2% in Jan15, while overall domestic demand contracted by 6.3% in Feb-15, vs 3.8% a month ago.”

“So, economic activity continued weakening at a rapid pace, and only net exports could have been partly offsetting the effect on the headline GDP.”

“Manufacturing surveys have shown weakening price pressure on the producer side, so PPI dynamics should be better going forward which, together with moderating WoW/MoM CPI growth, fully justifies the CBR focus on GDP risks in its policy setting.”

“We reiterate our view of its key rate falling to 12% in 2Q15 and 9% by 2015-end.”





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USD Index target at 104.54 for 2015 – BNPP



FXStreet (Barcelona) - he BNP Paribas Team maintains a bullish outlook on USD, and further gives the 2015 and 2016 forecast for the USD Index.

Key Quotes

“We remain USD bulls despite the FOMC’s recent caution. The USD will continue to benefit from higher US yields against a backdrop of ECB and BoJ QE.”

“We are beginning to see a pickup in real capital flow support for the USD and expect this to accelerate.”

“USD Index Forecast: 104.54 in 2015, 102.83 in 2016.”





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Strong US dollar is good, reflects the economy – US Treasury Secretary



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, at Miami, said that a strong US dollar reflects the strength in the US economy.

Lew stated there is a decisive progress in the US economy, with housing and construction showing signs of improvement. He further added that lower energy prices are goof the US economy.





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EUR/USD climbs near 1.0800



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The upbeat momentum around the euro is picking up pace now, lifting EUR/USD to the area of 1.0800, or session highs.

EUR/USD firmer on Greece

The pair managed to break above the 1.0700 handle today after a brief congestion pattern in the upper-1.0600s. The single currency derived support from the optimism around Greece, while EU officials continue to wait for the list of reforms. It is worth recalling that the EU needs to approve the Greek programme in order to habilitate bailout funds.

EUR/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 1.23% at 1.0789 and a breakout of 1.0800 (psychological level) would target 1.0920 (high Mar.19) and then 1.0940 (21-d MA). On the downside, the immediate support lines up at 1.0650 (hourly low Mar.20) followed by 1.0635 (100-h MA) and finally 1.0613 (low Mar.19).





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GBP/USD rises above 1.48



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The sell-off in the US dollar gained momentum ahead of the US session, taking the GBP/USD pair well above 1.48 levels.

GBP/USD rises above hourly 50-MA

The pair rose above the hourly 50-MA and 100-MA located at 1.4804 and 1.4790 respectively. Apart from the broad based sell-off in the USD, the pair also benefitted from the moderate rise in the UK gilt yields, the 10-year Gilt yield currently trades one basis point higher at 1.543%.

With no major US data due for release today, the pair could continue to rise on unwinding of short positions ahead of the weekend.

GBP/USD Technical levels

The pair currently trades at 1.4820; up 0.45% for the day. The immediate resistance is seen at 1.4857 (hourly 200-MA), above which gains could be extended to 1.49 levels. On the flip side, a break below 1.4790 (hourly 100-MA), could send the pair down to 1.4722 levels.




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Bullish outlook for US treasuries – RBS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - John Briggs, Head of Cross Asset Strategy at RBS, gives the technical outlook for 2s4s10s US treasuries, maintaining a bullish view.

Key Quotes

“Lastly, on the subject of technicals, for US 10yr notes daily momentum is bullish and not yet overbought, weekly momentum is bearish and looking a bit mixed, while the monthlies are bullish but overbought.”

“A conflicting mix, against reinforcing that one should be careful at the range extremes still.”
“The weeklies and monthlies signal a pre-disposition to sell rallies, though not quite yet (better to wait a bit for dailies to line up).”

“The technical for 2s5s10s line up better (bullish belly), with all three time horizons aiming bullishly, so we stick with that as our favored call.”

“2s (0.64%)- Next major support doesn't emerge until ~0.80% where we found buyers back in the spring of 2011. Resistance seen at 0.40% where we'd close a gap left behind in late October. Daily momentum is bullish.”

“5s (1.47%)- Next major support comes in at 1.80% and just above. Next resistance begins at ~1.30% and extends down to major resistance at 1.15%. Daily momentum is bullish and showing evidence of bullish divergence.”

“10s (1.962%)-Next resistance comes in some congestion in and around 1.80% then the low yields of 1.64%. Next support comes in ~2.40% with major support at 2.66% after that. Daily momentum is bullish and showing bullish divergence.”





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Canadian retail sales decline for the second consecutive month in January



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the Statistics Canada showed today that the Retail sales ex-auto decreased for the second consecutive month in January, declining 1.7%, against the expectation of a 0.4% decline. The previous month’s figure stands at -2.3%. Retail sales in volume terms decreased 1.2%.

Lower sales at gasoline stations represented the majority of the decline. Retails sales Ex-gasoline stations were down 0.8%. Sales at gasoline stations fell 8.8% in January, reflecting lower prices at the pump. This was the seventh straight monthly decrease and the largest monthly decline since November 2008.




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USD/CAD through 1.2700 post-CPI



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The renewed weakness around the Canadian dollar is allowing the current rebound in USD/CAD beyond the 1.2700 handle.

USD/CAD firmer on CAD data

The pair has recovered ground towards the low-1.2700s after Canadian consumer prices matched expectations during February: headline CPI rose at an annual pace of 1% while the BoC Core gauge advanced 2.1% over the last twelve months. Adding to the selling pressure in the Canadian dollar, headline retail sales and sales excluding the Autos sector contracted further than forecasted during January, 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

USD/CAD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is down 0.11% at 1.2703 with the next support at 1.2628 (50% of 0.9059-1.6197) followed by 1.2507 (low Mar.19) and then 1.2449 (low Mar.18). On the flip side, a break out of 1.2750 (low Mar.17) would aim for 1.2800 (psychological level) and finally 1.2835 (2015 high Mar.18).




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USD/JPY back below 121.00



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is now losing the grip vs. the Japanese counterpart on Friday, dragging USD/JPY back to sub-121.00 levels.

USD/JPY off highs at 121.00

After hitting daily highs around 121.20, spot is now shedding some of the initial gains and is returning to the vicinity of 120.90 amidst thin trade and absence of events in both calendars.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, has faded the spike beyond the 99.00 mark in early trade and is now hovering over session lows near 98.70 while sentiment towards the risk-on trade continues to surge.

USD/JPY levels to consider

At the moment the pair is advancing 0.16% at 120.96 with the next hurdle at 121.41 (high Mar.17) followed by 121.57 (high Mar.13) and then 121.67 (high Mar.12). On the other hand, a breakdown of 120.61 (low Mar.20) would aim for 119.68 (low Mar.19) and finally 119.29 (low Mar.18).



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EUR/USD long for 1.1000 – GrowthAces



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The GrowthAces Research Team maintains their bullish outlook on EUR/USD, targeting 1.1000.

Key Quotes

“We wrote in our Wednesday’s Trading Strategies Update released after the Fed statement and yesterday’s Market Overview that the USD rally might be over and we maintain our opinion despite overwhelmingly one-sided market positioning.”

“Our previous long taken at 1.0750 hit the stop-loss level. The position was taken too early, we did not anticipate strong USD recovery yesterday. However, this recovery does not change our outlook that the bearish EUR/USD is over. We got long again at 1.0670 today and set the target at 1.1000.”

“Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.0796 (hourly high Mar 19), 1.0920 (session high Mar 19), 1.0940 (21-dma)

Support: 1.0650 (hourly low Mar 20), 1.0613 (low Mar 19), 1.0580 (low Mar 18)”

“EUR/USD: long at 1.0670, target 1.1000, stop-loss 1.0500, risk factor *”



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