HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[AllForexnews]

[B]Date: 10th February 2026.[/B]

 

[B]S&P 500 Rebounds as AI Stocks Lead Gains Ahead of Key US Economic Data.[/B]

 

 

The US stock market witnesses a second consecutive day of significant gains as market sentiment improves. The S&P 500 earlier in the month fell by more than 4%, but has been regaining bullish momentum. The index has now formed a 90% correction.

 

The upward price movement is largely due to sentiment towards technology companies and AI improvements. AI-related companies are mainly driving the bullish momentum. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Broadcom are the main drivers of the trend. Today, the US will release its latest Retail Sales figure, which will trigger some volatility for the stock market. However, the price in the medium-term will largely depend on the upcoming NFP data and US Inflation.

 

US Jobs and Inflation Data

The S&P 500 bullish trend is strongly connected to the upcoming US data, as it is likely to indicate how the Federal Reserve will set its path for interest rates. Buyers will ideally be looking for the inflation rate to decline and for employment to remain somewhat stable. Stronger employment data would allow more leeway for the Federal Reserve to make no adjustments to interest rates.

 

Analysts are expecting the Non-Farm Employment Change to add 66,000, similar to the previous months. The US Unemployment Rateis also likely to remain at 4.4%. Analysts project the Consumer Price Index (inflation rate) to fall from 2.7% to 2.5%, the lowest in 8-months.

 

Currently, there is only a 17% chance of an interest rate cut in March according to the Fedwatch Tool. However, the decline in inflation can prompt this statistic to move in favour of the stock market. If indeed the statistics do read as per expectations, the S&P 500 may see further bullish momentum.

 

Another key release will also come from company earnings. Cisco and McDonald’s are due to announce their quarterly earnings report tomorrow. In 2026, Cisco stocks have risen 14% while McDonald's has risen 7%. The two companies make up almost 1% of the total S&P 500.

 

Risks To The Stock Market

Goldman Sachs’ closely watched “Panic Index” has surged to near so-called “max fear” levels, underscoring a sharp rise in investor anxiety across US equity markets. The spike reflects growing concern that the recent bout of volatility may not be over, and that a deeper sell-off could be triggered if key technical thresholds give way.

 

According to Goldman’s analysis, positioning and sentiment indicators suggest that as much as $33 billion in equity selling could be unleashed if the S&P 500 breaks below critical support levels that many systematic and momentum-based strategies rely on.

 

However, other indicators related to risk do not support this outlook. The VIX Index, another fear index, is trading slightly higher this morning; however, its weekly performance indicates a positive stock market. For 2026, the VIX Index has traded higher, which is concerning, but if the index continues to fall like the past week, the fear factor will decline.

 

S&P 500 - Technical Analysis

 

HFM - S&P 500 30-Minute Chart

 

The price action and waves within the S&P 500 are following the traditional bullish trend pattern. Price swings continue to form higher highs and higher lows on smaller timeframes, such as the 15-Minute chart.

 

On the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA, which indicates a bullish sentiment. The price also remains on the positive side of the MACD, but not above the signal line. However, if the price rises above $6,971, the bars within the MACD are likely to cross above the signal line. As a result, bullish signals are likely to strengthen.

 

If bearish momentum gains and the price falls below $6955, bullish sentiment and technical indicators will likely fade.

 

Key Takeaways:

 

• S&P 500 rebounds after a 4% pullback, regaining bullish momentum.
• AI and big tech lead gains, driven by NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Broadcom.
• Key US data ahead (Retail Sales, NFP, Inflation) will steer market direction.
• Rate-cut odds remain low, but falling inflation could boost equities.
• Risk signals are mixed, with panic indicators elevated but technicals still bullish.

[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]

 

[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]

 

Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE!

 

[URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL]

 

[B]Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets[/B]

 

[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 11th February 2026.

Gold Breaks from Its Traditional Dollar Correlation?
 

The announcement of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman nominee and heavy profit-taking have driven Gold down by 21%. Though the asset has recently regained 58% of its lost value. Gold’s outlook will now heavily depend on today’s employment data and Friday’s inflation rate.

The price movement of Gold has been somewhat static, forming range-bound conditions but with a slight bullish bias. However, when also analysing the price of the US Dollar, the correlation does not follow its traditional path. The USD has come under immense pressure over the past week, but Gold’s upward trend has been less volatile.

However, traders should note that correlations have weakened temporarily in the past but later showed a delayed response.
 

The US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index is trading lower on Wednesday and has also fallen in value over the previous three trading days. The currency has been performing relatively well towards the end of January and the first week of February. This is due to investors expecting a hawkish Federal Reserve and no imminent rate cut.

However, analysts expect inflation to decline to 2.5%, an 8-month low and fairly close to the Fed’s target. As a result, the Federal Reserve may consider a small adjustment within March, which is not currently priced into the market.

Yesterday, Stephen Miran, a member of the US Federal Reserve Board, said that the Republican administration’s trade policy has had only a limited impact on the US economy. He explained that most of the costs from higher tariffs and taxes have been absorbed by foreign companies. He also added that the effect on US household spending has been small.

Analysts see his comments as a sign that inflation pressures are gradually easing. This could give the Federal Reserve room to adjust monetary policy if needed, while still maintaining financial stability.

Meanwhile, White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett said that job growth may slow in the coming months. He pointed to slower growth in the labour force, higher productivity, and fewer migrant workers entering the country as factors that could reduce overall employment growth.

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day and of the past week.
 

XAUUSD - Economic Data and Dollar Weakness Supports Gold

The weakening US Dollar is one of the main factors that could push gold prices higher. However, even though Gold prices remain somewhat stable and elevated, the price is not forming a bullish trend. Traditionally, due to the correlation between the USD and Gold, Gold would normally be at least 9%; however, the increase is barely maintaining a rise of 5%.

Data released the day before showed a sharp slowdown in retail sales, falling from 3.3% to 2.4% year-over-year and from 0.6% to 0.0% month-over-month, while investors had expected 0.4% growth. Excluding vehicle sales, the figure also dropped to 0.0% MoM, confirming that November’s increase was only a short-term holiday boost.

At the same time, consumers are raising concerns about rising prices and acting more cautiously amid a tense labour market. Still, the broader environment remains moderately supportive of industrial production, investment, and business spending, helping sustain the overall economic recovery after recent short-term shocks.

The main driver would be today's NFP Employment Change and Friday’s Consumer Price Index (inflation data). Traders speculating upward price movement would ideally be hoping for the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1% and for inflation to fall to 2.4%, not 2.5%.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett tells the market to expect weaker employment data and “not to panic”.
 

Geopolitical Tensions To Return?

Gold is also supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, where talks between Iran, Israel, and the United States have failed. The US continues to demand a full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs while keeping sanctions in place.

As a result, investors are increasing gold holdings, and central banks are boosting physical gold purchases. According to the World Gold Council, gold demand hit a record 863 tons last year and remains strong. China’s central bank is also increasing gold reserves as it seeks to reduce reliance on the US Dollar.

XAUUSD - Technical Analysis

HFM - XAUUSD 10-Minute Chart


Over the past 24 hours, gold has formed a range-bound price pattern and is showing slightly more bullish than bearish momentum. The price continues to remain above the Moving Averages and the Volume-Weighted Average Price. The MACD and other Oscillators also remain on the positive side despite the lack of bullish price movement.

Today, the price is trading upwards with higher highs and lows on smaller timeframes. However, if the price falls below $5,038.85, the short-term bullish signals will fade.
 

Key Takeaways:

• Gold rebounded after a sharp drop, recovering 58% of its 21% decline, but lost momentum in the past 24-hours.
• The US Dollar is weakening, but Gold’s rise has been relatively modest despite the typical inverse correlation.
• Upcoming economic data is key, with today’s NFP and Friday’s inflation report likely to determine gold’s next major move.
• Geopolitical tensions and central bank demand support gold, with record global purchases and continued buying from China.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 12th February 2026.

Strong NFP Data Surprises Markets, Lifts The US Dollar.
 

The latest US employment data came as a shock to market participants. Price action during and after the announcement shows that investors are unsure how to price in the new figures. This is why most assets saw a strong impulse wave, succeeded by a full correction. The only asset which saw a clear direction was the US Dollar.

Strong Economic Data Boosts US Sentiment

Analysts were previously expecting January’s employment data to be similar to the previous months. Over the past six months, the US economy, on average, has added 40,000 employed individuals on a monthly basis.

Conversely, the employment data read significantly stronger than in previous months and the current projections. The Non-Farm Payroll Change read +130,000, double previous expectations. The NFP Change is the highest reading since July 2025. The Average Hourly Earnings also rose 0.4%, higher than the previous month, where earnings only rose 0.1%. Lastly, the US Employment Rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%.

As a result, the US employment sector remains resilient and even shows some signs of expansion. This, in turn, supports the view of the majority of market participants that the US Federal Reserve will continue the pause in the “dovish” cycle and adjust the cost of borrowing by -25 basis points only once in 2026. Thus, the probability of the indicator remaining in the 3.50% to 3.75% range at the March 18th meeting is now 94%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool. Previously, the possibility of a pause was 79%.

According to the former senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Tim Mahedy told journalists, “It absolutely complicates the argument for lower rates”. “The January data were really strong”.
 

The US Dollar

The US Dollar was one of the only assets which saw momentum remain in favour of the original impulse wave. During the Asian session and the first half of the European session, the US Dollar Index was weakening. After the positive NFP results, the currency rose 0.55%. After the original spike, the currency had seen retracements and volatility. However, the index 0.12% higher than the open price and 0.45% higher than the day’s low.

On Thursday, the price of the index continues to trade higher. The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day alongside the New Zealand Dollar. The currency is likely to continue obtaining potential support from the employment data. However, this afternoon’s Weekly Unemployment Claims will renew volatility levels. If the weekly claims are lower than expectations, the Dollar potentially may rise again.
 

HFM - USDX 15-Minute Chart

S&P 500

The stock market at first saw a surge in buyers after the announcement of stronger employment data. This spike is most likely due to the sentiment increasing towards the US economy and its continuing economic expansion despite tariffs and new policies. However, the price was quick to correct downward and ended the day lower by 0.06%.

The stock market continues to struggle to break through the resistance level which has formed over the past week. For example, at $6,988 for the S&P 500 and $25,367 for the NASDAQ. A key factor which traders may be waiting for in order to obtain confirmation before trading is tomorrow’s CPI release. Analysts are expecting the US inflation rate to decline from 2.7% to 2.5%.

If inflation does not decline, sentiment towards the stock market may fall as the Fed will likely take a hawkish stance past March. However, as the price of the S&P 500 moves sideways, the price continues to remain above most moving averages on the 2-hour chart. Though the price is close to obtaining a bearish signal from the MACD index. The next trend will primarily depend on tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index.
 

HFM - USA500 15-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:

• US jobs data strongly beat expectations, with NFP at +130K, higher wages, and lower unemployment, signalling a resilient labour market.
• Fed rate cut expectations declined, with markets now pricing a 94% probability of a pause in March and only one 25bps cut in 2026.
• The US Dollar strengthened clearly, gaining momentum after the data and outperforming most major currencies.
• Stocks struggled despite strong data, with the S&P 500 facing resistance as investors await tomorrow’s CPI release for direction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 13th February 2026.

AI Fears Weigh on Global Stocks Ahead of Today’s CPI.
 

All global indices declined on Thursday, including the US, EU and Asian indices. The quick, sudden selloff is due to fear regarding AI triggering a domino effect on employment and most sectors. Economists advise that the rapid release of new AI products can hurt long-term profits and disrupt business models.

The movement continues to remain under pressure on Friday as the market sentiment remains low. In addition to this, investors are considering whether the Federal Reserve would opt for a prolonged pause. This afternoon, the US will release its latest inflation figures. The new inflation rate may shed some light on how the Federal Reserve may view its monetary policy.
 

HFM - S&P 500 15-Minute Chart

AI Concerns Not Only A Tech-Problem

The performance of the stock market over the past 24-months has largely been related to demand in AI products. However, the growing number of companies investing in AI, along with the rapid expansion of AI products, is raising concerns among economists. These concerns of triggering a selloff amongst stocks, and not only within Technology companies.

The number of new AI products launched this week is raising concerns about traditional business models. Sectors such as logistics, real estate, professional services, and enterprise software could face disruption or replacement. One example is Intuit’s new AI-Powered Construction Edition for its Enterprise Suite. The company announced the product on Wednesday.

Analysts warned that these tools could automate tasks that previously required human labour. This raises concerns about future revenue streams for many companies. Economists advise that rapid automation and new AI products could increase unemployment. They also warn that demand for traditional products may decline. For example, Bloomberg economists say the domino effect could impact sectors unrelated to AI or technology.

For example, if there is a lesser need for traditional products and unemployment rises, the need for real estate and office space falls significantly. Hence, one of the reasons why Real Estate stocks are also under extreme pressure. For example, Camden Property Trust stocks, which are included in the S&P 500, fell 2.95% on Thursday.

Traders may ask why technology stocks are also declining, as the risk is largely related to other sectors such as logistics, real estate and industrials. Investors focusing their portfolios on AI and the technology sector are contemplating whether there is a risk of an AI-Bubble. In addition to this, investors fear that the risk which AI bears on the economy may trigger harsher regulation.

Traders should also note that strong trending markets on new technology in the past have witnessed powerful declines. For example, the .com crash in the early 2000 where the S&P 500 fell 50% and took more than 7-years to return to its pre-crash level.
 

Employment and the Federal Reserve

This week’s strong labour market, including rising payrolls and lower unemployment, suggests economic resilience and reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts. As a result, the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut rates in March, which is a concern for stocks.

Analysts expect inflation to decline from 2.7% to 2.5%, positive for investor sentiment and the stock market. However, if inflation does not decline to this level, investors will fear a prolonged pause, and this can pressure stocks further. Particularly as stocks are already under pressure from a “risk off” appetite.

As a last note, a positive factor for the stock market is that President Trump is contemplating whether to slightly lower tariffs on certain metals. These tariffs were put in place last summer, but recent reports indicate these tariffs may be reduced.
 

S&P 500 - Technical Analysis

The price of the S&P 500 is currently trading 2.70% lower than the previous swing high. When monitoring previous bearish swings, the average decline that the S&P 500 witnessed is 3.65%. For this reason, price action and past price data indicate the price can potentially continue to fall.

On the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the S&P 500 has fallen below the 100-bar Simple Moving Average and below the 75-Bar Exponential MA. In addition to this, the price is also witnessing bearish crossovers on most timeframes and is trading below the day’s Volume-Weighted Average Price. The VWAP is also pointing downwards, which further indicates a bearish signal.

According to the 200-BAR SMA on the 5-minute chart, a correction signal is not likely unless the price increases to $6,850.00. However, this would also depend on this afternoon’s Consumer Price Index. A lower inflation reading could boost sentiment and demand.
 

Key Takeaways:

• Global markets fell on Thursday on fears that rapid AI adoption could disrupt multiple sectors.
• Fears arise after the release of multiple AI products throughout the week.
• AI products may automate tasks, hurt traditional revenue streams, and increase unemployment risks.
• Real estate stocks, like Camden Property Trust, fell due to declining demand for office space.
• Strong US employment reduces urgency for Fed rate cuts, while inflation data will guide policy.
• S&P 500 shows bearish technical signals, with downside risk unless CPI and sentiment improve.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.