AllForexnews Posted June 10 Author Report Share Posted June 10 [b]Date: 10thJune 2025.[/b] [b]Market on Edge As Trade Negotiation Deadline Approaches![/b] Investors are realising that the ‘temporary pause’ on reciprocal tariffs is slowly approaching its deadline triggering a sense of uncertainty. This is something that is reflected in today’s pricing, particularly the stock market and the US Dollar. Clearer projections for the market’s price movements are likely to be available when the outcome of today’s meeting between the US and China comes to a close. For China, the current deal with the US will end on August 14th and for most other countries on July 8th. Will the US and China Agree on a New Deal? The US and China will continue negotiations this morning in London at 10:00 local time. Yesterday, the negotiations lasted more than 6 hours, but beared no fruit. Due to this, the market at times saw large retracements and for some assets even corrections. Currently, the market pricing is not conveying any signs of optimism but a clear ‘wait and see’ stance. Kevin Hassett, the White House Economic Adviser, yesterday spoke with journalists and sounded quite optimistic. The President also commented that while China is challenging to negotiate with, reaching a deal is both possible and crucial for both sides. The US leading negotiator, Secretary Scott Bessent, will leave the UK for the US this evening. As a result, today’s negotiations will be vital! According to reports, currently, the main sticking point is China’s raw earth material which the US wishes to obtain easier access and China is looking to get more access to US technology and plane parts. According to Kevin Hassett, the US is willing to loosen restrictions on tech, but there have been no reports from the Chinese government as of yet. NASDAQ (USA100) The NASDAQ during this morning’s Asian session saw a significant increase rising more than 0.70%, but thereafter fell to the day’s low. This up- price movement clearly illustrates the market’s feeling of uncertainty while the US and China are yet to put pen to paper. On the one hand, the market is optimistic as the two countries have recently managed to agree on a temporary trade deal. The fact that such high ranks of participants from both sides indicates the seriousness of the intentions and the desire to reach a comprehensive agreement around bilateral trade. In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to maintain a bullish bias regardless of today’s correction back to $21,746.05. The price continues to remain above the 75-period EMA and 100-period SMA. The price is trading below the VWAP so far, but this will become more important once the US session opens. In terms of price waves, the asset continues to see higher highs and lows. The price, however, will all depend on today's negotiations. NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart Lastly, a positive factor for the NASDAQ is that the Put and Call ratio is again declining after slightly rising the week before. In addition to this, the VIX also continues to fall while 62% of the NASDAQ’s components are increasing in value. US Dollar and Gold The US Dollar is currently increasing in value and has risen to its highest price since May 30th. Even though the price of the US Dollar and Gold is traditionally inversely correlated, both assets are simultaneously increasing. However, if an agreement is signed by the US and China, Gold may lose momentum as the market’s sentiment improves. Currently, the US Dollar is the day’s best-performing currency. The US Dollar Index has risen 0.44% so far. The second best-performing currency is the Japanese Yen while the worst is the British Pound (GBP). A key factor for the US Dollar will also be tomorrow’s US inflation rate. The market currently expects US inflation to rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. This would reduce the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before autumn. USDX 3-Hour Chart Key Takeaway Points: The upcoming expiration of the tariff pause (July 8 globally, August 14 for China) is fueling investor caution, reflected in volatile stock and USD pricing. High-level negotiations in London continue, with no agreement yet. Today’s outcome is expected to strongly influence market direction. The US representatives remain optimistic supporting the market. Despite early gains, the index corrected back, showing investor indecision. Technicals remain bullish, but momentum hinges on trade talk results. The USD leads global currencies, buoyed by risk-off sentiment and expectations of rising inflation, while gold also climbs despite typical inverse correlation. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllForexnews Posted June 11 Author Report Share Posted June 11 [b]Date: 11th June 2025.[/b] [b]Dow Fails to Break Resistance Ahead of Key Bond Auction and CPI![/b] The Dow Jones rose to its highest price since March 2025 as the US and China agreed on a framework to lower tariffs. The comments from both the US and Chinese negotiators kept to an optimistic tone, reassuring markets of a deal. However, a key factor for today will be the US inflation rate and two US Bond auctions. The Treasury will sell $39B in 10-year notes Wednesday and $22B in 30-year bonds Thursday. Dow Jones Rises on US-China Optimism The Dow Jones on Tuesday rose 0.20% from market open to market close. However, the impulse wave after a decline early in the day measured 0.70%. The Dow Jones continues to honour the current trend lines which act as a support level. The bullish price movement is being given by the US-China trade negotiations in London and the optimistic tone. So far we know the agreement will mean China will ease export restrictions on rare earth materials essential for electronics and green tech. In exchange, the US will relax some export controls on high-tech items like semiconductors and jet-engine parts. As a result, the NASDAQ, SNP500 and Dow Jones rose in value. However, even with the latest upward price movement, the index continues to find resistance at the $42,959.00 level and fell 0.20% on Wednesday 11th. Dow Jones Price Action and Technical Analysis The main concern for technical analysts is that the Dow Jones on the daily chart is witnessing divergence. This means the price has risen to a higher high, but the RSI remains at a lower low. Simultaneously, as mentioned above the price finds resistance at the $42,959.00 level and has failed to break above this level on 4 occasions. USA30 1-Hour Chart Therefore investors remain on edge and prepared for an alternative price movement regardless of the price remaining above most Moving Averages and trend lines. Currently, some risk indicators point to a slight risk-off sentiment, however, no major red flags. The Put/Call ratio has fallen which is positive for the Dow Jones, and the VIX has risen which is negative. The High Low Index also points to a positive investor sentiment as 5 stocks remain at 52 week highs while zero are at a 52 week low. Due to not obtaining a clear one-sided signal, investors will await for the Bond Auction and Inflation Rate to determine the future price movement. Today’s Bond Auction and Inflation Rate Impact On The Dow Jones The Treasury will sell $39 billion in 10-year Bonds Wednesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. Traditionally, investors do not class bond auctions as an event which can trigger high volatility. However, given the increasing debt scenario, investors will pay particular attention. If the bond values are lower than previous auctions and expectations, investors may become spooked triggering a lower risk appetite. A poorly received auction (low demand, high yields) can have a negative effect on both the Dow Jones and the US Dollar. However, it can have a positive impact on Gold prices, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. US Budget Deficit Economists expect the US CPI (inflation rate) to rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. Over the past 3-months, the inflation rate has consecutively fallen below expectations. If the inflation rate again falls below expectations, the Dow Jones may find enough support to retest the current resistance level. Whereas, if the inflation rate rises to 2.5% or above, the Dow Jones can witness a potential quick selloff. Key Takeaway Points: Optimism from the trade deal boosted the Dow, with China easing rare earth export restrictions in exchange for US tech export relaxations. The Dow struggles at the $42,959 resistance level, with technical divergence signalling potential price shifts. Positive sentiment is seen with 5 Dow stocks at 52-week highs, but mixed risk indicators suggest caution. Bond auctions and inflation data will influence future market movement, with higher inflation possibly triggering a selloff. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllForexnews Posted Thursday at 10:24 AM Author Report Share Posted Thursday at 10:24 AM [b]Date: 12th June 2025.[/b] [b]Lower US Inflation Pressures The Dollar Amongst Other Developments![/b] The US Dollar falls to its lowest price since April 22nd due to US inflation reading lower than previous expectations. The US Dollar Index fell a total of 0.35% on Wednesday and today’s price gap saw the index open a further 0.15% lower. The lower inflation data is applying renewed pressure on the currency which stands as the worst performing of the month. The best-performing currency of the past 24 hours is the Japanese Yen. USDJPY - Lower Inflation Data Prompts Bearish Bias The Consumer Price Index and Core figure (excluding food and energy) for May rose 0.1% lower than previous expectations. As a result, the US inflation rate rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, instead of 2.5% and the core inflation rate stayed the same (2.8%). The lower inflation rate is welcomed by consumers and even shareholders, however, the reading is negative for the US Dollar. The US Dollar quickly fell in value without witnessing any noticeable retracements or attempts to regain bullish momentum. This is largely due to a higher possibility of cuts, however, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its dovish rhetoric. According to the Chicago Exchange, there was a 14% chance of a rate cut in July before the CPI announcement and a 19% chance after the announcement. Therefore, the possibility of rate cuts remains low for the foreseeable future. Therefore, why has the US Dollar taken such a large hit for the weaker inflation data? Additionally Pressure on The US Dollar! The main price driver for the downward trend is, without a doubt, the weaker inflation data. However, other factors are also contributing to the bearishness of the US Dollar. One of these factors is the rioting which originally occurred in Los Angeles, which is now spreading to other regions including Chicago. These do not have a direct effect on the economy but can dampen economic sentiment and activity if this continues for a prolonged period. A key factor is also the Treasury which sold $39 billion in 10-year bonds at a higher-than-expected value, indicating strong investor demand despite various market concerns. Due to the higher demand the bond yields fell from 4.5000 to 4.4030. The lower bond yields are known to be negative for the US Dollar but simultaneously find investors relieved. Another factor which is yet to take centre stage is the possibility of Israel, a key ally of the US, striking Iran. According to reports, the US is advising various officials and offices in the region, particularly Iraq, to evacuate. Israel is reportedly considering a unilateral strike on Iran as talks between Washington and Tehran near a preliminary agreement on uranium enrichment. Due to this Oil prices rose close to a 10-week high, but this development is yet to become a serious concern. USDJPY - The Japanese Yen Is the Best Performing Currency of Thursday! The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency of the day followed by Investors, the Swiss Franc and the Euro. These 3 currencies have been the main beneficiaries of the Dollar’s decline in 2025. The market continues to focus on the further actions of the Bank of Japan. Analysts agree that at the next meeting, officials will leave the interest rate unchanged but may continue hiking thereafter. Commenting on the current situation, the head of the regulator notes the uncertainty in global trade, which hinders the ‘hawkish’ cycle due to the risks of accelerating inflation. USDJPY 30-Minute Charts The USDJPY is trading 0.40% lower during Thursday’s Asian session and trading below the 200-period SMA on the 5-minute chart. However, currently, the exchange rate retraces slightly higher as the EU session starts. If the price falls back below 143.770, sell signals are likely to again materialize. Key Takeaway Points: The US Dollar falls to its lowest since April 22 due to lower-than-expected inflation, with the Dollar Index dropping 0.35%. May CPI rose 0.1% less than expected, causing inflation to rise to 2.4%, weakening the Dollar. Despite lower inflation, the Fed's dovish stance keeps rate cut expectations low. Other factors pressuring the USD include lower bond yields, domestic unrest, and rising oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllForexnews Posted Friday at 09:29 AM Author Report Share Posted Friday at 09:29 AM [b]Date: 13th June 2025.[/b] [b]Israel Attacks Iran in An Overnight Strike: Oil Rises 13%![/b] Israel launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, military leadership and key Iranian scientists according to reports. The attack took place overnight and involved more than 200 Israeli fighter jets which bombed more than 100 targets. The US has made a statement publicly advising the country was not involved. In addition to this, other key partners such as the UK and France are pushing for de-escalation. How is the market reacting so far? Crude Oil Prices Jump 13% The asset which is seeing the most volatility is understandably Crude Oil as Iran is the 7th highest producer of Crude Oil after Iraq. Currently, the price of Crude Oil is trading 5.00% higher, but earlier in the day it was 13% higher. Crude Oil rose to a high of $77.64 per barrel and to its highest price since January. Due to extremely high volatility in a short period, it is understandable that the asset became oversold triggering a decline in the past 3 hours. Currently, the bearish momentum continues to remain the driving force in the short term. The 200-period SMA continues to act as a trend-line meaning the price may continue to decline to $70.50 before finding support. However, this would also depend on the upcoming developments. According to reports, the Israeli army not only attacked nuclear facilities, military leadership and key Iranian scientists, but also the country’s ability to instantly retaliate. As a result, Iran was limited to using drones to retaliate. According to army experts, drones can travel long distances and cause significant damage, but they travel extremely slowly. The Israeli government is advising they are currently shooting down drones over Jordan and Syria. Crude Oil Daily Chart If the conflict was to escalate, the price of Oil could regain bullish momentum as it would trigger a fear of supply chain disruptions and lower production levels. SNP500 - Developments Trigger Low Risk Appetite! The SNP500 fell as much as 1.98% before retracing higher. Currently, the SNP500 is trading 1.20% lower and the NASDAQ 1.33%. The downward price movement is being triggered by 2 factors. The first is the conflict between Israel and Iran prompting a lower risk appetite. The second is the significantly higher oil prices which can apply upward pressure on inflation. The future price movements of the SNP500 and stock market in general will depend on how the current situation escalates. If the two countries escalate, the price of Oil may continue to rise while the stock market potentially could take a larger hit. If downward pressure increases, a key support level for the index could be seen at $5,791.24. This level may act as a target for individuals looking to speculate downward momentum in the medium-term. Traders should note that even though the index is yet to witness significant lasting volatility, most risk indicators point to a ‘risk off’ sentiment. For example, the VIX Index currently trades 9% higher. Gold - Safe Haven Asset Witness Increased Demand! The price of Gold has not only risen due to the Israeli strikes on Iran, but has been increasing in value for 3 consecutive days. Originally, lower inflation data drove the upward price movement, prompting a weaker US Dollar. Gold is inversely correlated with the US Dollar. However, now the commodity’s safe haven status is coming into play as institutions look to lower the risk of their portfolios. Key Takeaway Points: Oil prices spiked 13% due to the Israeli strikes, reaching $77.64, with potential decline to $70.50 if bearish momentum continues. The SNP500 fell 1.98% as the conflict escalated, and rising oil prices raised inflation concerns. Gold has been increasing for the last three days, driven by the weaker US Dollar and its safe-haven appeal amid the crisis. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllForexnews Posted yesterday at 10:50 AM Author Report Share Posted yesterday at 10:50 AM [b]Date: 16th June 2025.[/b] [b]Geopolitical Tensions Ease Slightly as Israel-Iran Conflict Enters Day Four.[/b] Geopolitical Tensions Ease Slightly as Israel-Iran Conflict Enters Day Four Tensions between Israel and Iran persisted into a fourth consecutive day on Monday, despite global appeals for restraint. The ongoing conflict has deepened following a series of reciprocal strikes. Iran launched a missile barrage that reportedly killed five in Israel after Israeli forces targeted nuclear and military infrastructure in central Iran over the weekend. The Israeli military confirmed it carried out a widespread offensive on Sunday, striking Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, the Quds Force, and army assets in Tehran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking in parliament, urged for national unity and reiterated Iran's commitment to its nuclear ambitions, even as diplomatic efforts intensified on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada. Markets initially reacted sharply to the escalating crisis, with oil prices spiking up to 5.5% to $78.32 a barrel before retracing gains. Brent settled near $75, and WTI hovered around $74, as traders assessed the risk of supply disruption. Israel's strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field temporarily halted a production platform, adding to energy market jitters. However, analysts note the greater threat lies in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows. Any Iranian attempt to block the waterway could trigger a dramatic surge in energy prices. Despite these concerns, some analysts remain cautious. ‘Unless the Strait of Hormuz is closed or Houthi forces in Yemen intensify attacks on shipping, we don’t expect another significant leg higher in crude,’ said Robert Rennie of Westpac Banking Corp. Volatility has spread beyond commodities. Oil spiked more than 13% on Friday before stabilizing, while gold initially rallied on safe-haven demand. However, markets appear to be dialling back risk premiums. Gold prices have slipped 0.6% to $3,410 on Monday, reflecting reduced appetite for safety. Safe Haven Flows Retreat on Tentative Hopes of De-escalation The decline in gold is partly attributed to signs that Iran may be open to diplomacy. Iran’s Foreign Minister stated the country would consider returning to talks if Israeli strikes cease. This has prompted a retreat in safe-haven assets, and investors are beginning to discount the likelihood of a broader regional war — at least for now. While the geopolitical backdrop remains fragile, markets seem to be shifting focus back to macro fundamentals. Stocks Rebound as Risk Sentiment Stabilizes European equities moved higher, with: Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.4% Germany's DAX gaining 0.4% France’s CAC 40 advancing 0.5% UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.2% Spain’s IBEX climbing 0.7% Italy’s FTSE MIB rising 0.6% US futures also reflected cautious optimism, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.5%. The market appears to be moving past last week's geopolitical headlines, highlighting its tendency to quickly refocus on the next catalyst. Macro Outlook: Central Banks in Focus Amid Rising Uncertainty The Israel-Iran conflict is overshadowing a week heavy with central bank decisions. The FOMC, Bank of England, and others are expected to hold rates steady. While softer U.S. inflation prints over recent months gave the Fed room to pause, the conflict introduces a new inflationary risk via higher energy costs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to shift to a more dovish stance despite market hopes, as rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty may reinforce caution. Key attention will be on the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which could show upward tweaks to growth but limited changes elsewhere. The ECB, meanwhile, remains on track to hold rates in July, though escalating geopolitical risks could sway sentiment. In the UK, the BoE is also expected to stay on hold despite easing wage growth, with inflation expectations still running hot. Switzerland may deliver another 25 bp rate cut amid deflationary pressures and a strong franc, though further FX interventions remain unlikely due to U.S. sensitivities. Asia-Pacific Outlook: Quiet on Policy, Watchful on Trade Central banks in Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines are expected to maintain current policy stances this week, except for the Philippines, which may opt for a 25 bp cut. Japan’s BoJ is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50% and stick with QT plans. Upcoming data on trade, machine orders, and CPI will be closely watched, though tariff uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllForexnews Posted 4 hours ago Author Report Share Posted 4 hours ago [b]Date: 17th June 2025.[/b] [b]Global Markets Stabilise Despite Middle East Tensions, While Oil Supply Set to Outpace Demand.[/b] Equity markets remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions. Oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but longer-term trends point to ample supply. Bond yields reflect diverging views between inflation fears and safe-haven demand. The IEA’s supply forecast reinforces a bearish tilt for oil if geopolitical risks are contained. Gold steadied as a hedge against growing uncertainty. Risk appetite improved overnight, with Wall Street largely brushing off intensifying tensions between Israel and Iran. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, Israel has so far limited its retaliatory actions to nuclear and military facilities, sparing key oil infrastructure. This containment helped ease energy market fears, leading to a pullback in oil prices and renewed interest in equities. The NASDAQ led the gains, climbing 1.52%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.94% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75%. Meanwhile, market volatility dropped, with the VIX index falling 7.6% to 19.23. However, US Treasury yields moved higher, pressured by investor concerns that a broader regional conflict could still emerge, potentially pushing oil prices and inflation higher. A solid 20-year bond auction failed to cap the rise in yields. The 10-year yield climbed 5.4 basis points to 4.45%, while the freshly auctioned 20-year yield ticked up 6 bps to 4.945%. The 2-year yield was up 2 bps to 3.966%, staying below the key 4.00% threshold. The US Dollar index (DXY) edged higher to 98.09, rebounding from a session low of 97.685. European & Asian Markets React Cautiously In early Tuesday trade, European stocks opened lower, reflecting cautious sentiment after a mixed session in Asia. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.6% higher after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held interest rates steady and announced a tapering of bond purchases for the next fiscal year. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.6%, weighed down by Middle East tensions and fears that the US could be drawn into the conflict. European indices followed suit, with the DAX and FTSE 100 down 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. US stock futures were also in negative territory. Bank of Japan Holds Rates, Tapers Bond Purchases BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that interest rates could rise if Japan’s economic outlook improves, but warned of risks in both directions for inflation. The central bank confirmed it would reduce monthly bond purchases by JPY 400 billion until fiscal year-end and by JPY 200 billion per quarter thereafter. Ueda cautioned that cutting bond buying too rapidly could destabilize markets. Gold Steadies as Traders Track Conflict and Trump Calls for Tehran Evacuation Gold steadied today after earlier gains, driven by rising geopolitical tension and safe-haven demand. Bullion briefly surged by 0.5% to cross the $3,400 mark after former US President Donald Trump posted a call for the immediate evacuation of Tehran on social media, escalating investor anxiety over the Israel-Iran conflict. Hours before, Trump had urged Iran’s leadership to agree to a new nuclear deal, further fueling market uncertainty. Last week, gold surged nearly 4% as Israel initiated military strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, triggering fears of a wider Middle East war. This compounded the upward momentum already driven by economic concerns stemming from aggressive US trade policies. Currently trading about $100 below its April record high, gold is on track for its sixth consecutive monthly gain—marking its strongest streak in more than two decades. Silver also advanced, while platinum was little changed and palladium edged lower. IEA: Oil Supply to Outpace Demand Despite Geopolitical Risks The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted that global oil supply will significantly exceed demand in 2025, easing concerns about the potential disruption caused by the Israel-Iran conflict. In its annual report, the IEA projected oil production to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) to reach 104.9mn b/d, while demand is expected to increase by only 720,000 b/d to 103.8mn b/d. This imbalance is anticipated to lead to rising inventories throughout the year. The supply growth will stem from both OPEC+, which is reversing previous cuts, and non-OPEC+ producers, expected to contribute an additional 1.4mn b/d in 2025. ‘In the absence of major disruptions, oil markets in 2025 appear well supplied,’ said the IEA. Oil storage levels have already surged by an average of 1mn b/d since February, with a sharp rise of 93 million barrels in May alone. However, total inventories remain 90 million barrels below year-ago levels. While the IEA acknowledged the geopolitical risks posed by the Israel-Iran conflict, it noted that Iranian oil flows have not been impacted so far. Although Iran temporarily suspended output at the South Pars gas field following an Israeli airstrike, the extent of production damage remains unclear. Other key sites, like the Shahran refinery near Tehran, were reportedly targeted without significant damage. Long-Term Outlook: Supply to Outpace Demand Through 2030 In a separate report looking ahead to 2030, the IEA predicts global oil demand will plateau at 105.5mn b/d, rising just 2.5mn b/d from 2024 levels. Meanwhile, global production capacity is expected to expand by over 5mn b/d to 114.7mn b/d. A key factor behind the demand slowdown is China, where oil consumption is now expected to peak by 2027, driven by surging electric vehicle (EV) adoption, the expansion of high-speed rail, and increased natural gas-powered trucking. This is the first time the IEA has set a firm date for peak oil demand in China, aligning with recent projections from major Chinese oil firms. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.