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MARKET NEWS

 

July 16: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Asian stocks held stubbornly steady on Wednesday after China reported economic growth that was just ahead of market expectations, enough to prompt a sigh of relief from investors, but little else. China’s GDP added 7.5% in Q2 on the annual basis vs. 7.4% expected. The data confirmed the world’s second biggest economy has stabilized after a shaky start to the year but still left the global outlook cloudy, particularly given recent weakness in the euro zone.

 

US dollar strengthened as the market players focused on the Fed Yellen’s comment that rates could rise more quickly should the labor market continue to improve at a rapid pace. USD/JPY rose to 101.75. EUR/USD slid to 1.3556. GBP/USD edged down to $1.7130.

 

Australian and New Zealand’s dollars were both under pressure during the Asian session. Despite a slightly better-than-expected China’s GDP, retail sales data was slightly below the forecast. NZD/USD fell below the $0.8700 mark, extending the recent bearish correction. After a lower-priced dairy auction overnight, the New Zealand’s CPI came out lower than expected (+0.3% vs. +0.4% expected), increasing pressure on the kiwi. AUD/USD weakened into the $0.9330 area, approaching the July support at $0.9320.

 

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MARKET NEWS

16 July 2014

 

UK: mixed employment data

 

UK unemployment lowered from 6.6% to 6.5%, while claimant count contracted by 36K (forecast: -27K).

 

However, the figures are not so positive as it may seem: average earnings index growth slowed from 0.8% to 0.3% (forecast: 0.5%). markets are disappointed as they didn't get any confirmation of growing inflationary pressures on the economy.

 

GBP/USD reacted with a tiny dip to $1.7115, but holds around $1.7130 as of writing.

 

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MARKET NEWS

16 July 2014

 

What to expect from Yellen?

 

BNPP: "Our economics team does not expect today’s message to differ notably from what was communicated in the statement, press conference and FOMC minutes (of June 18). While jobs data has beaten expectations, GDP components have been generally weak. With asset purchases not expected to end until the October meeting, the FOMC likely sees no reason to clarify its intentions on the timing of rate hikes at this time".

 

Goldman Sachs: "We do not expect a major shift in tone from her press conference following the June FOMC meeting. We would not be surprised to hear her give some additional acknowledgement to improving labor market conditions following June's further decline in the unemployment rate. It is possible that she will receive some questions about the recent firming of inflation, which she downplayed in the June press conference".

 

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July 17: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

USD/JPY slid to 101.45. Yen strengthened as demand for it as a safe haven increased after the US imposed extra sanctions on Russia over Ukraine.

 

In general US dollar was near the 4-week high as economists said US data will show housing starts and a measure of manufacturing rose. After dipping to $0.9350 AUD/USD rose to $0.9380. NZD/USD hit $0.8680, but then recovered a bit to the $0.8700 area. New Zealand’s currency dropped for a sixth day as traders pared bets on higher interest rates.

 

EUR/USD is trading on the downside, in the $1.3520 area. Euro is under pressure before a report forecast to confirm inflation stayed below the ECB’s goal. GBP/USD is little changed in the $1.7140 zone.

 

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Key option levels (July 17)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3550 (large), $1.3570/75, $1.3590, $1.3600 (large), $1.3605 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 101.50/60 (large), 0.9340/50 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.0770, 1.0780, 1.0800 (large), 1.0850;

 

NZD/USD: $0.8625 (large);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7910, 0.7955;

 

EUR/CHF: 1.2160.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1477

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MARKET NEWS

17 July 2014

 

US expands sanctions against Russia

 

US administration announced new, tougher sanctions against Russia on Wednesday, stressing that Russia was responsible for the continuing support of separatists battling government forces in Ukraine. New measures target major Russian banks, energy companies (such as Rosneft) and individuals.

 

“The expanded sanctions in our view are likely to have a further damaging effect on the Russian economy", analysts at Danske Bank say. "We believe that the Russian economy is already in recession and the continued downturn in the economy is likely to put renewed pressure on the Russian markets”.

 

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MARKET NEWS

17 July 2014

 

Bank of Canada and impact on CAD

 

USD/CAD spiked up to 1.0794 yesterday before easing down to 1.0730 today.

 

The Bank of Canada kept the overnight rate unchanged at 1.0%. The BOC Governor Stephen Poloz refrained from commenting on strength of the national currency as he said the economy won’t reach its full potential until the middle of 2016 – that’s about 3 months later than the bank projected in April. According to Poloz, the increase of annualized inflation above the central bank’s target of 2% has been caused by one-time gains in energy and import prices, not changes in economic fundamentals. The Bank of Canada also cut its Canada’s GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.2% this year.

 

All in all, this position of the BOC is surely negative for Canadian dollar. Still, many analysts thought that Poloz will do more to talk down CAD. We didn’t see much of the sell-off of this currency as the market players await Canada’s inflation data due tomorrow – this release should provide some hints whether the surge in inflation is temporary as the BOC says or not. If not, the regulator will probably have to adopt a more hawkish stance in order to stop prices from soaring.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/17/usdcaddaily.png

 

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

 

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MARKET NEWS

17 July 2014

 

Central banks buy Treasuries

 

Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities point out that US Treasuries are becoming more popular among foreign reserve fund managers in comparison with what was in 2013. In the past 4 months, the net purchases of Treasuries by central banks have increased $16.8 billion per month on average. Wells Fargo underlines, that this is more than enough to offset the decrease in purchases which happens as the Fed tapers QE. This partly explains why 10-year Treasury yield slid to 2.40% in May.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/17/usd1772.png.png

 

Source: United States Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

 

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July 18: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

EUR/JPY touched the lowest level since February at 136.70 as investors sought haven assets after a Malaysia Airlines plane was shot down over Ukraine and amid escalating tension in the Gaza Strip.

 

USD/JPY rose from the lows in the 101.10 area to 101.40. The Bank of Japan released its monetary policy meeting minutes, according to which the central bank will keep QE program as long as necessary while most members are agreed that the impact is firmly on track.

 

The greenback remains high versus its counterparts before a report today that may show a measure of US consumer confidence climbed this month.

 

AUD/USD rose to $0.9366 after dipping to $0.9335. NZD/USD dipped to the 55-day MA in the $0.8650 area before recovering to $0.8680.

 

EUR/USD is fluctuating around $1.3520. GBP/USD is trying to hold at $0.7100 after yesterday’s decline.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1482

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (July 18)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3525 (large), $1.3530 (large), $1.3550, $1.3575/80, (large);

 

GBP/USD: $1.7090/7100 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 101.30;

 

AUD/USD: $0.9300, $0.9450;

 

USD/CAD: 1.0700 (large), 1.0725, 1.0740/45 (large), 1.0750, 1.0770/75 (large), 1.0780/90 (large);

 

EUR/JPY: 138.00;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7900, 0.7950 (large), 0.8050.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1484

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 21: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Trading wasn’t very active in Asia as it’s a bank holiday in Japan and amid concerns that geopolitical tensions could flare up at any time.

 

USD/JPY slid to 101.19. EUR/USD rose to $1.3548. GBP/USD edged up and is trading just below $0.7100.

 

AUD/USD consolidates in a narrow $0.9400/9380 range. The $0.9400 mark has been acting as a resistance since Friday. Buying interest remains subdued due to some disappointing Chinese headlines. NZD/USD opened with a gap up and strengthened to $0.8710.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (July 21)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large);

 

GBP/USD: $1.7075, $1.7175;

 

USD/JPY: 100.95, 101.20, 101.50 (large), 101.75-80 (large), 102.00 (large);

 

AUD/USD: 0.9250, 0.9395, 0.9400 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.0745, 1.0800 (large);

 

EUR/GBP:0.8000 (large).

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1488

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MARKET NEWS

21 July 2014

 

CFTC: USD longs slightly down

 

According to the latest CFTC report, released on July 18, large traders and speculators slightly decreased their US dollar bullish bets on the week ended July 15. The overall USD long position declined from $10.34 billion on July 8 to $9.94 billion on July 15.

 

Large speculators iraised their bets on JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD, while there were weekly decreases for EUR and GBP.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/21/cot-values.png

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/21/cot-standings2.png

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1489

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MARKET NEWS

21 July 2014

 

BMO: data to watch for EUR

 

BMO Capital points out that the main focus for euro this week will be on the preliminary July PMIs due on Thursday and the German IFO Business Climate Index due on Friday.

 

According to the analysts, if the French or German PMIs drift lower, bears will pull EUR/USD to $1.3450. Still BMO underlines that for the bears to succeed they need good data from the US. All in all, the specialists expect that EUR/USD will be sold this week on the rallies to $1.3550 as we’ve seen today ahead of the releases on Thursday and Friday.

 

US dollar, on the contrary, is supported ahead of the American inflation data due tomorrow. According to the survey conducted by Bloomberg, economists expect US consumer prices to have climbed at an annual rate of 2.1% in June matching May’s figure that was the most since October 2012. High inflation strengthens the cause for an earlier-than-expected rate increase in the US and is USD-positive.

 

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1490

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21th of July: American session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatyana Norkina, analyst of the company FBS

 

U.S. dollar index is moderately recovering at the opening session and increasing about 0.05%. Stock markets were opened with the gapdown of nearly 0.30%. It should be mentioned that there will be no publication of important macroeconomic indicators expected today, therefore tradings will be likely of pure technical nature.

 

Currency pairs are traded on Friday levels. Thus, the pair EUR / USD went back to 1.3510/1.3520 after the morning testing 13550. The pair GBP / USD is gravitating foward the bear market: the pair failed to recover above 1.7090 in the day time and is trading at 1.7060 now. As to USD / CHF it is consolidating just above 0.8980, though bulls do not resolve to overcome 0.8990. Currency pair USD / JPY is moving in the upper range of 101.20-101.35.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1492

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July 22: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Asian shares rose as investors bet rising tensions in Ukraine over the shooting down of a jetliner won’t curb global economic growth. Nikkei 225 advanced by 1%. US dollar index remains near 1-month high as an increase in short-term US Treasury yields signaled mounting speculation the Fed will raise interest rates.

 

AUD/USD strengthened from the session low of $0.9350 into the $0.9390 area. RBA Governor Stevens held a speech, but didn’t talk the Aussie down. NZD/USD consolidates in a narrow $0.8670/90 range. Gold weakened to $1306.20.

 

USD/JPY rose to 101.50. EUR/USD is frozen at $1.3522. GBP/USD is little changed in the $1.7075 area.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1493

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MARKET NEWS

22 July 2014

 

Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the limelight

 

Economists at Deutsche Bank expect to see new developments in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis today with the EU finance ministers holding a meeting to discuss a possibility of imposing new sanctions on Russia. At least, the US president Obama urges the European government to do so. Meanwhile, Kremlin is denying responsibility for the Malaysian plane crash in Donetsk.

 

"There is a real possibility of a ratcheting up of sanctions on Russia later this week – including possibly more hard-hitting “level 3” sanctions. The US may find it economically easier to deal with this outcome than Europe though."

 

"Perhaps the most market-friendly outcome is that EU leaders talk very tough but do not agree on intensifying sanctions against Russia", Deutsche Bank says. According to Reuters sources, despite all the tough talk, the EU is unlikely to punish Russia beyond the speeding up of the imposition of already agreed individual sanctions.

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (July 22)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3540, $1.3550 (large), $1.3565, $1.3580, $1.3600;

 

GBP/USD: $1.7075;

 

USD/JPY: 101.00, 101.75, 101.95, 102.15 (large);

 

USD/CHF: 0.9050;

 

AUD/USD: $0.9365;

 

USD/CAD: 1.0745 (large), 1.0765, 1.0800;

 

NZD/USD: $0.8575, 0.8665;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7975;

 

EUR/JPY: 137.00.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1495

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MARKET NEWS

22 July 2014

 

EUR/USD below $1.3500

 

EUR/USD hit $1.3477, the lowest level since the beginning of February. The single currency was sold-off as the European trade started.

 

The sentiment about the single currency was bearish and in absence of positive developments this made euro fall triggering sell stops. Potential further EU sanctions on Russia keep EUR/USD under pressure. USD bulls on the other hand, are active ahead of the US CPI release at 12:30 GMT.

 

Note that EUR/USD is oversold in the short term and the RSI and MACD on H4 didn’t confirm this fresh low.

 

Support us at $1.3476, $1.3450 and $1.3425/15 (200-week MA/June 2013 high). Resistance is at $1.3529, $1.3550 and $1.3575.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/22/eurusdh4.png

 

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1496

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MARKET NEWS

22 July 2014

 

Euro area: debt mounts

 

According to the EU’s statistics office Eurostat, euro zone’s government debt rose from 8.90B euro in Q4 2013 (92.7% of GDP) to 9.05B euro in Q1 2014 (93.9% of GDP). The biggest increases in debt were in Slovenia and Belgium (7 and 3.9 percentage points respectively).

 

Greece, the bloc’s third-biggest economy Italy and Portugal have the highest debt levels (174.1%, 135.6% and 132.9% of GDP respectively).

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1497

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 23: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Asian shares rose for a third day, with the regional benchmark index extending a 6-year high, as lower US inflation data damped concerns interest-rate increases will be brought forward. MSCI Asia Pacific Index outside of Japan gained 0.4%. Nikkei 225 slid by 0.1%. USD/JPY slid below 101.40.

 

AUD/USD jumped from the $0.9380 area to $0.9435, inspired by the better-than-expected Q2 inflation data in Australia. CPI came in line with forecast at 0.5%, while trimmed mean CPI rose from 0.6% to 0.8%. Higher inflation makes it more difficult for the RBA to shift from its current neutral stance to dovish. NZD/USD strengthened to $0.8680.

 

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3460 area after it lost about 60 pips yesterday falling to an 8-month minimum. GBP/USD edged up to $1.7075 from yesterday’s low at $1.7040.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1499

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (July 23)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3450, $1.3470 $1.3500 (large), $1.3545/50 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 101.70, 101.85, 102.15/30;

 

USD/CHF: 0.8875, 0.9050;

 

AUD/USD: $0.9325 (large), $0.9350;

 

USD/CAD: 1.0745, 1.0800 (large);

 

EUR/JPY: 136.75;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7990/8000.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1500

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MARKET NEWS

23 July 2014

 

AUD: higher inflation and what it means

 

AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9440 after a government report showed annual inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 4 years. Australian consumer prices climbed 3% in Q2 from a year earlier, matching estimates. The RBA aims for inflation of between 2 and 3%. Trimmed mean CPI reading, which excludes the most volatile components, increased by 2.9% y/y vs. 2.7% expected.

 

As a result, traders pared bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates next year. According to Westpac, as inflation is currently low in the many countries of the world, higher reading from Australia caused AUD/USD to rise. HSBC points out that it will be now more difficult for the RBA to lower the national currency and convince the market that it will likely cut interest rates further when inflation is in the upper part of their target band.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1501

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MARKET NEWS

23 July 2014

 

BoE policy minutes in focus

 

Market attention is now focused on the June BoE meeting minutes release at 8:30 GMT. According to currency analysts at RBS, The British currency may lose some ground on the release.

 

Economists are convinced that the UK regulator unanimously voted in favor of unchanged monetary policy. Note that high UK inflation was released a few weeks after the June meeting, so the Bank hadn’t had enough ground to turn hawkish yet.

 

They see the August meeting as a more likely time to see divergence of views in the MPC. By the way, August meeting will coincide with inflation forecasts and a fresh Quarterly Inflation Report.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1502

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MARKET NEWS

23 July 2014

 

USD is still the dominant power

 

It’s the 70th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference which created the foundations of the global monetary system based on the US dollar we have today.

 

Despite the efforts to step away from American currency, companies, consumers and central banks around the world prefer the US dollar to other currencies. Almost 90% of the $5.3 trillion a day in foreign-exchange transactions last year involved USD – and this percentage is the same as it was in 1989. Here's the infographics done by Bloomberg:

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/23/bloomberg%20currencies.png

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1503

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