Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: continuation down

 

 

Eurodollar is falling again and has broken down below the 1.2780 level confirming a renewal of the down-trend. This means it is likely to fall to a new downside target at 1.2650 measured from the pennant formed earlier, although 1.2675 provides an nearer target. Alternatively, if there is a rebound then one would expect upside caped by the 200-day MA at 1.2865, with a break above that required to confirm a bullish recovery, at first targeting resistance at 1.2925.

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: technical update

 

 

Eurodollar rallied up to resistance from the 200-day MA at 1.2880 which then repulsed it back down. There is still potential for more weakness and a break below 1.2770 could indicate a possible move down to support from weekly and monthly pivots at 1.2675. Alternatively there is also the possibility of a recovery, with the trend-line at 1.2835 offering the first target and a decisive break above that probably leading to a move up to the 200-day at 1.2880

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating before key news

 

Eurodollar is trading in a narrow range before the ECB rate-meeting later this morning. A bearish flag pattern may have formed with the potential for a break lower reaching a downside target initially at support at 1.2660 and then possibly eventually 1.2505. Upside is less likely and is capped by the 200-day MA and the monthly pivot in the 1.2880-90 area, and a decisive break above 1.2915 required to confirm a reversal in the short-term trend and a potential upside target of 1.3030.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: resistance level breached

 

Eurodollar tore higher following the ECB rate meeting. It broke above the 200-day MA and the monthly pivot which had been capping activity at the 1.2880-90 level. It has now stalled and is drifting lower and will probably find support at 1.2880-90 again before probably resuming its up-trend. Another leg higher could reach 1.3050 eventually, with the monthly pivot nearby adding further weight to the target. Alternatively a decisive break below 1.2800 would be required to initiate a resumption of the broader down-trend.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bullish reversal

 

 

The EUR/USD pair has probably reversed its down-trend. It's most recent rally has formed a consolidation after hitting several upside targets. This could be a bull flag since we have also had a breakout from the expanding wedge pattern, and it will probably lead to a break higher and move to the 50-day MA at 1.3145 and finally 1.3220. A thrust above 1.3050 could give confirmation. On the downside, the 200-day MA at 1.2880 would have to be breached to open the way for further progress, with 1.2660 providing the next bear target.

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: monthly pivot resisting

 

The EUR/USD pair has moved out of its range. It is consolidating at its current level where the monthly pivot is providing resistance. A decisive break above the 1.3067 highs would be required for a continuation of the rally higher, with the 50-day at 1.3150 providing the next target up and 1.3220 another eventual possible target. Downside is limited by support at 1.2950-60, which if broken could lead to a move down to the 200-day MA at 1.2880.

 

 

Joaquin Monfort

Analyst

Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend continues

 

 

Eurodollar has broken above the monthly pivot at 1.3045 and risen up sharply. It is close to resistance from the 50-day MA in the 1.3130s. If it breaks above the 50-day then it may rise even further to a possible target at 1.3245. Currently there are no signs the short-term up-trend may be about to end. Several targets at the current level have been hit but price-action is still bullish. It would require a break below the pivot at 1.3045 to make a bearish case, with a sell-off down to around 1.2980 possible thereafter.

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: rallying

 

The gap up after the weekend remains open and the pair continues to rally. The 100.00 target is now easily within reach and it is probable that it will reach it, as well as the next target higher at the monthly pivot situated at 100.78. Alternatively, a move below the 98.50 would signal a possible gap-fill down to 97.80. The up-trend remains strong, however, and will probably resume thereafter.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trading in a range

 

The EUR/USD pair posted a shooting-star candlestick on Wednesday after it touched the 50-day MA although there has been a lack of follow-through to the downside so far. The currency has reached the target from the trend-line break and it could reverse at this point and begin falling again, however, it has not fallen sufficiently far to indicate a change of trend. It has pulled back 38.2% of the previous move reaching another possible reversal or consolidation level. The monthly pivot at 1.3045 is currently acting as an important support level, with sideways movement in the range between that and the 50-day at 1.3130 unfolding and likely to continue.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: falling in its range

 

The EUR/USD pair has reached the 50-day MA and is consolidating. It is currently falling down within its range and will probably continue a little lower until it reaches support from the monthly pivot at 1.3035. It may bounce from this area or continue lower, although a decisive break below 1.3035 would be required to signal more downside, with the next target down lying at 1.2950. Alternatively it could bounce from the pivot and rise back up within the range to the highs at 1.3120.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidating under 100 level

 

The USD/JPY pair has started to weaken today after hitting a new high of 99.94 yesterday. This was close to the key 100.00 level which is considered a major level by analysts. It has been rolling over steadily today but has just met support from the monthly pivot at 98.75 which is also close to some old lows and it will probably bounce from here, back up into the range and possible up to the recent highs. Although less likely, a move below 98.60 would signal a downside breakout to the next level lower at 97.20.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidando - potencia bajista

 

Eurodollar is falling within a range-bound consolidation with a ceiling at the 1.3130 highs and bottom at the monthly pivot at 1.3045. Currently it is moving down towards the pivot and it will probably reach it. The 50-day MA at 1.3100 may also provide resistance to further upside. Overall I see the most probable outcome an eventual break lower. This would be a sort of Elliot 5th wave of the move down from the 1.37 highs, targeting the 1.2745 lows. A break below 1.3030-25 would give confirmation.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating - downside drift

 

Eurodollar continues to consolidate and drift lower. It has rebounded back up from the range lows today and now faces resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.3095. It is possible the pair could be forming a bullish flag which could trigger a rally after breaking above the 50-day and range highs at 1.3125, leading to a move up to 1.3445. It is also possible the consolidation is a topping pattern at the end of an Elliot wave 4, and a decisive break below 1.3020 could lead to a fall down (in a wave 5) to 1.2945, and then 1.2745.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: rebounding

 

The USD/JPY has sold-off to support from a support-and-resistance level and the trend-line in the lower 96s. From here it has bounced back up to a consolidation zone and the level of the weekly pivot at 97.75. There's no sign of weakness in the rebound yet and it will probably continue higher to 98.15, or possibly even 98.75 cluster of pivots. A break below 97.48 would probably signal a breakout of the channel and lead to a move down to 97.00 initially and then possibly even the 96.60 support level.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: spike higher fading

 

Despite yesterday's spike higher the pair is currently experiencing some weakness. It will probably correct back to support from the top of the range and the 100-day MA at 1.3140. For a stronger bearish move I would want to see a decisive breach of the consolidation lows at 1.3020, to then target 1.2830. A continuation higher, on the other hand would be confirmed by a break above the 1.3201 spike highs first, with the next target at 1.3280 at the level of the monthly pivot.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: possible top forming

 

Cable's recovery has stalled and it has fallen into a support zone between 1.5240-1.5260. It is still too early to say whether this is the start of a bigger fall but the short-term looks bearish and we may be at the neckline of a possible head and shoulders top. Nevertheless the pair will probably consolidate at the present support level or even maybe bounce a little. A breach below 1.5230 would be needed to confirm a continuation down, perhaps to 1.5155 where support from a trend-line kicks-in. A bullish recovery from here looks unlikely, but upside would probably reach the resistance zone in the 1.5350s.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend resuming

 

Yesterday's steep sell-off signaled a probable resumption of the down-trend. A break below 1.3001 would now confirm the next leg down with the 200-day MA at 1.2905 providing the next target lower, and then possibly 1.2800 at the level of a key trend-line. Given the current high volatility there is still a possibility of a move higher, although it is less likely, and it would have to spike above the 1.3201 highs to get bulls interested. We might then be looking at the possible development of a broadening formation, making upside targeting unreliable.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend intact

 

Despite recent weakness the longer-term trend higher remains intact. Shorter-term there has been a bounce off support at 96.72 and the trend-line nearby. The pair is now slowly climbing back up towards the key 100 level. Given many analysts have been saying 100 yen is a probable target for the rally it will probably encounter further selling pressure and it remains an important upside target. The strength of the bounce has been rather weak and if the trend-line at 97.80 is breached I see the possibility of more weakness again, with a possible move down to 96.70, however, support there is strong.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: recovery continues

 

Eurodollar continues to rise slowly. It climbed above the monthly pivot and is currently meeting resistance at the 50-day MA. There is a possibility the current sideways movement could end and the down-trend resume but I would need a decisive move below the 1.3001 lows for confirmation, with a downside target at 1.2905. Alternatively the pair may continue to claw higher, perhaps to the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.3125 where it might reverse. Ideally I'd like to see a breach of the highs at 1.3198 before getting bullish again, although with the current high volatility upside targeting remains problematic.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: break lower probable

 

The EUR/USD pair has formed a sort-of head and shoulders topping pattern at the highs, with a possible neckline at 1.3007 and bearish implications if broken. Price is already moving lower and will probably continue, with the 200-day MA situated at 1.2922. A break above 1.3128 would be required to support a more bullish view, although the 100-day MA and recent highs at 1.3165 cap upside expectations.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking neckline

 

The pair is trending down again today and we are approaching the neckline at 1.3007 of the sort of head-and-shoulders pattern which has been forming at the highs. A decisive break below 1.3000 would help provide confirmation of a break of the neckline. The initial target down would be to the 200-day MA situated at 1.2922, although eventually price will probably reach the H&S target at 1.2850, which is also at a major up-trend-line. A bullish reversal is looking highly unlikely and would have to break above 1.3075 to gain traction, then targeting 1.3185 to the upside.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: supported by channel lows

 

The GBP/USD pair has been rising in a channel for for over a month now and it will probably continue. Recently it weakened and fell back to support from the lower channel line where it could probably recover and begin a new move higher. If this happens it would probably reach the upper channel line at 1.5530. Alternatively, a complete breakdown out of the channel would be signaled by a move below 1.5170, which would give a downside target of 1.4900.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: H&S neckline broken

 

The EUR/USD seems to have broken below the neckline at 1.3005 and moved lower. Despite a strong bullish candlestick on the hourly chart, price will now probably go down towards the 200-day MA situated at 1.3022 and then probably even lower eventually as the pattern reaches its target at about 1.2850. Alternatively a break above the down-sloping trend-line formed by the head and the right shoulder of the pattern at about 1.3050 would see the H&S fail and a probable short-covering rally higher, possibly targeting resistance at 1.3165 initially.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: returning to 100 level

 

The USD/JPY has risen back up towards the 100 yen mark again and currently it is trading at around 96.60. If it rises further it would be expected to encounter significant resistance at the 100 level as well as the monthly pivot not far above at 100.78. I would ideally want to see a decisive breach above 100.78 to see a major breakout higher, with the 110's an eventual target. Alternatively, a break below 95.79 would signal a possible double-top had formed and a reversal, with a move lower and an eventual target at 92.50.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: surprise rebound

 

The break of the H&S neckline yesterday failed to to follow-through to the downside. Instead the pair printed a strong bullish hammer on the hourly chart before beginning to rise. This led to a rally to above the trend-line connecting head and right-shoulder indicating the H&S had failed. Today the pair has been correcting back down again, however, and it will probably go lower. There is support at 1.3015 from the trend-line, and break of that and the 1.3010 lows would signal a probable continuation lower to the 1.2960 range lows. Alternatively, a recovery and extension higher is also possible, with a decisive break above 1.3060 highs signalling a move up to the 1.3130 highs.