joaquinmonfort Posted February 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2013 EUR/USD: channeling down The pair has been channeling down since the start of February. It has just reached the lower line of the channel and the monthly pivot and has rebound. It will probably bounce back up to the upper channel line at 1.3300 next, with further tougher resistance also at 1.3330. Eventually it will probably resume its down-trend, however, with the key 1.2950 level marked as a probable downside target for the move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 USD/JPY: bearish breakdown There has been a decisive downside breakout out of the bottom of the range. It will probably continue lower and reach the target at 89.80, although there is a trend-line offering support at 90.30 and is is possible that the monthly pivot at 90.00 might afford a good median target. Eventually the strong up-trend will probably resume, however, after the pull-back has finished and lead to new highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2013 GBP/USD: consolidating in down-trend After falling to new lows GBP/USD is now trading in a sideways consolidation. It will probably eventually break to the downside and continue lower with the next target at 1.4915 and then at the monthly pivot at 1.4855. Recently the pair broke out of a multi-annual triangle providing a very bearish signal and likelihood of substantially lower prices. Any upside would probably be capped by tough resistance lying at 1.5265. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2013 EUR/USD: possible bearish resumption Eurodollar rebounded off yesterday's lows breaking above 1.3120 and beginning a weak rally higher. It has now rolled over however and is in the process of pulling back. It will probably correct back further or even renew its down-trend. If it breaches the 1.3050 lows then that would confirm the bearish resumption, perhaps down to 1.2900, the target for the head and shoulders top. A rebound, however, would see a move up to the 1.3200 level where the upper channel line is situated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2013 USD/JPY: consolidating in an up-trend The bulls succeeded in renewing the larger up-trend. After forming a double bottom the exchange rate pushed higher and met its target in the 93.60s. It has been moving sideways this morning and with no clear trend for the day it could just continue in a sideways range. Eventually, however, it will probably renew the up-trend and reach the range highs and the monthly pivot at 94.50. Alternatively a break below 93.00 could confirm a move down to the 91.20 range lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2013 GBP/USD: pull-back in down-trend The GBP/USD is in a strong down-trend. Today it has recovered, however, and broken up through its trend-line, reaching support and resistance at 1.5225. It will probably go even higher to an eventual target at around 1.5275 but given there are no strong signs of reversal the down-trend will probably resume after the upside target has been fulfilled. The first downside target would be the 1.4985 lows followed by the monthly pivot at 1.4865. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2013 EUR/USD: 'pulling-back' EUR/USD pair is still recovering but less aggressively than it did yesterday. This morning's activity has been mixed and it is possible it will continue sideways. If we get a break above the key 1.3100 level then there is a chance of a rally up to the top of the channel at around 1.3140-50. The rebound is probably just a pull-back and the down-trend should resume eventually and probably reach the target from the head and shoulders top at 1.2900. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2013 GBP/USD: channelling The down-trend is still intact and will probably eventually continue lower. There may be a rebound first, however, since the pair has reached the lower line of its channel today and formed a double bottom reversal pattern. If the neckline is decisively broken at 1.5015 it could lead to an rally to the target at 1.5080 before rolling over. A break of the pattern's lows at 1.4965, however, would be confirmation of an acceleration lower, perhaps to the 1.4750s - although an initial target could be at the monthly pivot at 1.4865. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2013 EUR/USD: touching key resistance Eurodollar's strong upswing yesterday has reached resistance at the trend-line for the move down and begun consolidating. It needs to break through this line to establish a bullish reversal and if it moves decisively above 1.3020 then it could provide the signal with a target at 1.3260. This morning we have seen some weakness, however, and it is possible it will continue correcting to around 1.3050, although heavy support in the 1.29s obstructs more downside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2013 (edited) GBP/USD: monthly pivot reached Cable is falling even lower, although it has just reached the level of the monthly pivot at 1.4865 and there is a possibility it could halt and consolidate here – or even temporarily bounce higher. Eventually it will probably sell-off, however, as the down-trend remains strong with the next target is between 1.4500-50. If there is a rebound from the current levels we might see a temporary bounce to 1.4950 followed by 1.5000. Edited March 11, 2013 by joaquinmonfort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2013 USD/JPY: pulling-back The USD/JPY pair rallied up to the monthly pivot at 96.25 where it encountered stiff resistance and backed off. It has rolled over this morning and it could pull-back further before plateauing, possible to 95.00 or the 94.00-94.50 region if strong. The up-trend, however, is strong and bulls remain in control so a resumption of the rally is probable eventually, with the next target higher at 98.15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 13, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2013 EUR/USD: channel breakout We have now had a break out of the channel, although there has been limited follow-through. The bounce from Friday's lows continues to rise slowly and there is a possibility now – since the channel breakout - of a continuation eventually up to the target at 1.3180. The price pattern stretching back over a week looks potentially like a reversal enhancing bullish outlook. A bundle of resistance at 1.3115 impedes but a decisive break above the 1.3071 highs would add bullish confirmation. For bears to get interested I'd be looking for a break below 1.2945, with 1.2815 indicated as a downside target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2013 USD/JPY: consolidating in an up-trend The overall trend is up but the pair is consolidating in a zone between the 96.70 highs and the 95.40 lows. It has pulled back to a trend-line and bounced yesterday and is rising in the range now. It will probably reach the range highs, and if there is a breakout above 96.70 then we could see a move up to the monthly pivot at 97.99. We would need to see a break below the range lows, however, for a move back down to 94.50 support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2013 GBP/USD: bounce continues The GBP/USD has bounced strongly from Wednesday's lows. It has continued rallying this morning and it may go even higher eventually, reaching resistance from the monthly pivot and the trend-line at 1.5310. Apart from the strength of the rebound there are no indication's yet of a reversal of the short-term down-trend: there are no price patterns and only a minor trend-line has been broken, therefore, it is still quite probable the down-trend could resume, and if we get a sudden move down to below 1.5050 then this could indicate such a resumption and re-test of the 1.4830 lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2013 EUR/USD: gap down Eurodollar gapped down at the start of this morning's session but found support from a major trend-line at 1.2915 as well as the support level from last autumn's highs, and has bounced. It has now reached resistance from the upper channel line of the descending channel from this morning's activity and it is possible it will encounter difficulty rising any higher. It would have to break out above the channel to completely fill the gap at 1.3060. In the end a break above 1.2990 would probably indicate a move up to fill; whilst a move below the 1.2875 level signal a continuation down to the monthly pivot at 1.2815. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 19, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2013 GBP/USD: consolidating before key news Cable is consolidating at the upper edge of a descending channel before tomorrow's key news events which include the 2013-14 budget and the minutes of the BOE's March meeting. Both are expected to cause volatility. Given the strong rebound from last Tuesday's lows it is quite possible there will be further upside, although trend-line resistance at 1.5170 would have to be broken for confirmation, with the next target at 1.5370. Alternatively the broader down-trend could very well resume with a move below 1.5070 probably signalling a move to the range lows at 1.4905. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2013 EUR/USD: continuation lower Eurodollar fell back into its down-sloping channel yesterday and dribbled lower, breaking below the 1.2880 level to reach new lows of 1.2845. It now seems probable it will fall to the next downside target at 1.2815 where the monthly pivot is situated. Given the bearish outlook it is unlikely the euro will see much buying interest unless it breaks above the 1.2995 level, with the top of the gap at 1.3060 providing the next upside target for the pair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2013 EUR/USD: sideways market The euro rebounded off its lows during Wednesday's session and found its way above the upper line of the down-sloping channel. This morning, however, it has started to fall once again and has now reached the upper channel line again where it is consolidating temporarily on the support offered. Given the bearish start to the day it is possible there could be a continuation lower, with a break of 1.2865 back into the channel, giving bearish confirmation and a possible move down to the monthly pivot at 1.2815. Alternatively, given the overall sideways market profile it could also use current support for a rebound back up to the key 1.2980-90 highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2013 GBP/USD: posibility of bullish reversal <p><img src="http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/03-13/GBPUSD21.png" alt="GBPUSD032113" width="756" height="686" /></p> The GBP/USD pair has rallied strongly after positive Retail Sales data. It is currently breaking-out of its down-sloping trend-line and also showing an inverted head and shoulders reversal pattern at the lows, a combination which is very bullish. If we get a daily close above 1.5180 then there is strong possibility of a breakout move up to the inverted H&S target at 1.5490 where the 50-day MA is also situated. Alternatively for confirmation of a resumption of the down-trend a move below 1.5025 would be required, which would then target the 1.4831 lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2013 EUR/USD: consolidating, downside bias http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/03-13/EURUSD22.png This pair has moved sideways this morning so far giving no indication of future direction. Currently there is resistance above price at 1.2920 from the 50 and 100-hour MA's and strong support at 1.2815 from weekly and monthly pivots. The pair has drifted out of the down-sloping channel but there is no upside impetus. A break above 1.2995 would signal a move up to 1.3060, filling the gap; downside is limited by 1.2815. Overall the picture remains bearish, however, with an unmet target at 1.2600, calculated from the first break of trend-line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2013 USD/JPY: strong support reached The trend today is to the downside. The pair has broken below the major support and resistance line at 94.55 and has just bounced from stronger support from a long-term trend-line and the monthly pivot. There is substantial support in lower 94s and a daily close below the trend-line at 94.15 would be required to mark a break of trend, but that would open up a downside target of 92.00. Alternatively a decisive breach of the support-turned-resistance level at 94.55 would be required to mark a bullish recovery targeting 96.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 EUR/USD: rebounding The EUR/USD pair has made a recovery and met a resistance line at 1.3045 from where it has been pushed back. Broadly speaking it is still going sideways although the bearishness of the short-term trend has lessened. A break above the resistance line could see a move up to 1.3225, however, for confirmation I'd want to see a move above the resistance levels at 1.3105-15. If the down-trend re-asserts then it will probably encounter support and stabilize from the 200-day MA at 1.2885. http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/03-13/EURUSD25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 GBP/USD: pull-back within up-trend Cable's short-term up-trend is intact. There has been a close above the key 1.5180 level indicating a probable continuation higher as the inverted H&S at the lows full-fills its target at 1.5490, although follow-through has been a bit slow this morning. The pair is currently correcting and it is possible there may be a pull-back to the trend-line also at 1.5180 level first before a move higher. The two pivots situated at 1.5370 provide nearer-term targets; a break below 1.5160 could initiate a move back down to support at 1.5070. http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/03-13/GBPUSD25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2013 EUR/USD: breaking lower The EUR/USD pair has moved down below the 200-day MA and is now in the process of breaking down below the monthly pivot at 1.2815. For those seeking added confirmation then a break below the weekly pivot at 1.2780 would give that. Yesterday's consolidation could have been a sort of elongated pendent pattern which would give an eventual downside target at 1.2650. Alternatively a rebound would probably be capped by the 200-day MA again at around 1.2875. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted March 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2013 GBP/USD: recovery in question The recent rally in the GBP/USD pair has started to crumble and today we have had a break of the trend-line for the move up. This indicates that the inverted H&S at the lows might possibly be a failure and so will not reach its upside target at 1.5510. Instead, it is now possible that the down-trend may resume. Cable will probably reach an initial downside target at support situated at 1.5070; whilst a break of that would open the way down to 1.4875. Alternatively - although looking unlikely at the moment - a move back above 1.5180 could signal upside renewal to the 1.5250 highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.