joaquinmonfort Posted December 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2012 EUR/USD: correction in an uptrend The triangle on eurodollar on Monday ended up breaking out higher and fulfilling its 1.2975 target. It will now probably correct back in a final wave lower, perhaps to the 50-day MA at 1.2925, or maybe even to support at 1.2905. After that it is possible the up-trend will resume and target 1.3000 first and then probably between 1.3060-80 where an old trend-line may resist further gains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2012 GBP/USD: meeting resistance Cable has reached resistance at an old trend-line at 1.6080 where it is consolidating, If it breaks below 1.6063 it could pull-back to the 50-day moving average at 1.6025. Alternatively it is also possible the pair could continue higher, given the strength of the move already, with a break up above the 1.6095 highs leading to probable re-test of 1.6127, maybe even 1.6160. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2012 EUR/USD: up-trend continuing The up-trend is extending higher but it has reached an important resistance level, and also the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of last week's sell-off, nevertheless there are no reversal signs yet and the short-term trend remains up. The next set of targets higher lie at 1.3075 and then 1.3119, close to the 5th December highs,which may mark an Elliot wave 5 high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2012 USD/JPY: touching range highs The USD/JPY pair has reached the range highs of its consolidation and it is testing the level looking poised to breakout higher. A decisive thrust above 83.00 could signal an upside breakout, with a target at 84.00. Alternatively the range highs may hold and push the pair back down into the range, with a break below 82.75 giving confirmation, and the trend-line supplying initial support at 82.65. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2012 EUR/USD: consolidation forming Eurodollar has been going sideways today with no firm trend in either direction. There may be a double top price pattern visible on the hourly chart, with a neckline at 1.3055 and a downside target at 1.3015. The short-term trend is still up, however, and favours more upside but any bullish potential is capped by resistance form the monthly pivot at 1.3120. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2012 USD/JPY: pull-back The USD/JPY broke out of its consolidation range yesterday and pushed higher, reaching the 83.60s, before pulling-back to an old trend-line where it has currently found support. The overall trend is should still get up to 83.83 next, where the monthly pivot is situated, however, as far as today goes there is a sideways consolidation which could just continue extending for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2012 EUR/USD: strong correction Eurodollar's up-trend hit resistance this morning from the monthly pivot at 1.3119 and then fell to the trend-line at 1.3078. It is currently consolidating and continues to look quite bearish. Momentum is also diverging negatively and a decisive break of the trend line would see a move down to 1.3020-05, however, there is also the possibility that bulls might fight back and pull the price higher again, with a recovery back to the 1.3119 pivot level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2012 GBP/USD: weakness possible The overall trend remains up despite recent mixed price action. It is, however, possible that the correction which began this morning could go lower, with the next target down at the trend-line support and the weekly pivot at about 1.6060. Looking at MACD on the 4-hourly and we also see a string a lower highs diverging with price and indicating further weakness. It is therefore quite possible the pair could move lower at first before resuming its up-trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2012 USD/JPY: sharp correction underway The USD/JPY pair has been in a rapid down-trend today and it will probably continue, reaching the 83.25-30 level before stopping to consolidate. After that it will probably resume its up-trend as the longer-term trend is bullish, but the monthly pivot at the 83.95 remains a strong line of resistance. Alternatively, a break below the 83.23 lows would mark a short-term change of trend and target the support line at around 82.80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 17, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2012 EUR/USD: consolidation in up-trend EUR/USD continues to look bullish, particularly after the break above the previous highs at 1.3136. A short term pull-back to trend-line support at 1.3115 is possible, however, although the up-trend will probably continue afterwards. Alternatively, this could be a pause before the pair continues higher, with the next target up being the monthly pivot at 1.3257. bedrockbrett 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 17, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2012 USD/JPY: gap in up-trend The USD/JPY pair gapped up this morning and then partially refilled the gap, although it has not quite reached the 83.53 highs of the previous week. The broader trend is still up and this is the first gap in the trend and therefore probably indicates a continuation higher, perhaps to the monthly pivot at 85.21. A break below 83.30, however, would target support at the 82.80s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 18, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 EUR/USD: pennant or triangle forming Eurodollar continues to consolidate in a pennant or triangle formation. It will probably eventually break higher, with a decisive move above the 1.3187 highs acting as confirmation, or possibly even 1.3195 for added safety. Then it should reach 1.3255 where the monthly and weekly pivots coincide. Obstacles below the pattern may impede downside, first at 1.3119 and then the consolidation zone between 1.3080 and 1.3110. bedrockbrett 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 18, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 GBP/USD: continuation higher Cable is rising, continuing to make new highs and higher lows. It will probably go further, reaching a cluster of resistance levels at around the 1.6280 level, or previous highs at 1.6300. Any downside is likely to be impeded by the monthly pivot at 1.6180 or support line at 1.6170. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 18, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2012 AUD/USD: resistance repelling The aussie has reached key long-term resistance on the weekly chart and is currently pulling back. It has formed a small price pattern on the 4-hour chart which could be a warning of further weakness, momentum is also diverging bearishly. A break below the 1.0507 lows could see a sell-off down to the key 1.0480 trend-line, and a break below that would see a possible change of trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2012 EUR/USD: continuation higher The trend up continues, strengthened by the break of the 1.3168 highs. Price is now also starting to breach the upper channel line of the current rally - a sign of surprising strength. It is also breaking above the weekly and monthly pivots clustered at 1.3258. If these fail then the next upside target might be 1.3485; any weakness, however, would be likely to return to the 1.3230-40 consolidation zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2012 USD/JPY: consolidating in an up-trend The short-term trend is still up, we have broken above the key 83.82 highs and the pair continued rallying after Monday's gap higher, another bullish sign. Today we are in consolidation mode a little bit and this might continue sideways longer trading between 84.45 and 84.20. An upside break, however, would target 84.63 first and then 85.11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2012 EUR/USD: up-trend slowing The trend has weakened slightly, with recent candles showing long upper wicks. We have reached the weekly and monthly pivots clustered at 1.3260 and there is a chance price will retreat back, perhaps down to 1.3200. However, overall the short-term trend is still up and the 1.3307 highs will probably be revisited, followed by 1.3500, given the recent bullish major trend-line break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2012 GBP/USD: resumption of uptrend The GBP/USD pair is rising strongly today after bouncing off its trend-line. This probably signals the end of the recent pull-back (possibly an Elliot wave 4) and the beginning of another rally higher (wave 5). The eventual target will probably be the 1.6282 highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2012 AUD/USD: pull-back in downtrend The break of the trend-line 4-days ago was a significant bearish sign, however, the double-bottom price pattern at the current lows has probably signalled the end of the current move, with a bounce possible and a price objective of 1.0415, where the 50-day MA and trend-line are both situated. The down-trend should probably resume eventually, with 1.0310 and then the 1.0230s supplying downside targets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2012 EUR/USD: consolidation unfolding Eurodollar has stopped rallying and is in a consolidation phase. Currently it is falling within its range and it will probably fall further to the range lows at about 1.3145. There is a possibility the consolidation will continue unfolding and then break higher, with 1.3500 providing the next upside target for the pair, alternatively deeper declines could see it fall to support at 1.3119. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2012 USD/JPY: pull-back in an up-trend The USD/JPY has pulled-back, although the overall trend is still up. It has just bounced back to a down-sloping trend-line and it could renew its temporary descent from here and reach perhaps major support at the gap at 85.20. The up-trend will probably eventually continue and run higher, with 87.50 supplying the next resistance level up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 EUR/USD: touching range lows The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in a range and is in the process of probing the range lows at the 1.3190 level. A decisively break below the 1.3165 level would be a significant bearish sign and target the monthly pivot at 1.3119 or probably even lower, to the trend-line at 1.3070. Alternatively a rebound from the current level would probably see a re-touch of the range highs at 1.3265. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 GBP/USD: rebound underway The GBP/USD pair has rebounded strongly and is currently breaking above its short-term trend-line, however the overall trend is waning and the monthly pivot resists at 1.6180. A break above 1.6200 would be required to reinvigorate the up-trend, followed by a potential move up to 1.6250. Alternatively a break below the 1.6130 lows could see a move to support at 1.6050. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted December 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 AUD/USD: rangebound in downtrend The aussie has been falling and has now reached its range lows. The trend is bearish and from here it will probably fall further, with a break below 1.0355 targeting 1.0310. Alternatively a bounce from here could reach the top of the range, with a break above 1.0375 targeting the range highs at 1.0410. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 EUR/USD: at range highs The EUR/USD has risen strongly to the range highs and the weekly pivot. There is the possibility, either of a break higher, with a decisive break above 1.3300 leading to to a move up to the monthly pivot at 1.3355 and then 1.3400. Alternatively, it could continue consolidating and move back down into the range, targeting 1.3220 support initially and then range lows perhaps at 1.3180. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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