Market Makers Thread Aftermath

[pcguy007]

I haven't much time to trade this week due to new puppy, I'll start trading agin next week.

 

How are folks doing with their trading, MMM or otherwise?

 

At this juncture (5:13 A.M. Pacific Daylight Savings) EURUSD made a strong upward move preceeding the London open, and then oscillated in about a 20 pip range. I am not referring to the MMM "blue box" which terminates a while before the London open. The strong upward move is supposed to be, or is often interpreted as a market makers' manipulated move, which may be a "fake" move designed to trap traders before the real move ensues. Or it can be the start of a continuing ("straightaway") move. Or it can be a move to nowhere. In common parlance, price will either go up, down or sideways. Only a select few can successfully predict.

[luc33x]

Steveg, why do you only watch eurusd ? You risk to miss the main action. If some pairs do not move as "expected", this means the action is on other pairs. Have a look at some of crosses : eurchf, eurjpy, gbpjpy, cadjpy, gbpaud, eurnzd, gbpnzd, nzdcad, audnzd, nzdusd, and some other majors : audusd, usdchf, nzdusd. More than enough opportunities.

 

How are folks doing with their trading, MMM or otherwise?

 

At this juncture (5:13 A.M. Pacific Daylight Savings) EURUSD made a strong upward move preceeding the London open, and then oscillated in about a 20 pip range. I am not referring to the MMM "blue box" which terminates a while before the London open. The strong upward move is supposed to be, or is often interpreted as a market makers' manipulated move, which may be a "fake" move designed to trap traders before the real move ensues. Or it can be the start of a continuing ("straightaway") move. Or it can be a move to nowhere. In common parlance, price will either go up, down or sideways. Only a select few can successfully predict.

 

9:07 AM Pacific DST: Still lazily uptrending.

[Steveg]

luc33x: Point taken. It might be helpful to the thread if anyone wished to report their experience with other pairs.

[hart3000]

I stopped chatting and posting when I realized that I was failing to achieve my mission (helping others to achieve profitability). At the same time, my own trading deteriorated to a point where I started taking impatient trades. Will trade silently for a couple of weeks. My boring but successful method is laid out in the related FF thread [edited, mistakenly wrote "II thread" first]. That should do for the moment. It's a small subset of what SM is teaching (wouldn't' say that I am a rounded MMM trader yet).

 

Furthermore, will be busy with a demanding private issue for the next couple of weeks. Perhaps back later.

 

The chat room continues to be open for all. If anyone would like to take up the room admin role, please let me know. However, a better chatting platform with persistent chat history would serve the purpose of exchanging knowledge better

 

Good trading life to all!

 

http://i.imgur.com/tOI9D.jpg

Edited March 16, 2012 by hart3000

[Steveg]

Hart3000: I looked at your past posts in this thread to try to determine your trading method. I found 7 posts. None included your trading method as far as I could tell. Am I missing something?

[hart3000]

Hart3000: I looked at your past posts in this thread to try to determine your trading method. I found 7 posts. None included your trading method as far as I could tell. Am I missing something?

 

Steveg -- I posted about the "boring method" in the related FF thread, not in II. Mixed that up. Apologies.

[Steveg]

Steveg -- I posted about the "boring method" in the related FF thread, not in II. Mixed that up. Apologies.

 

If I may be so bold, perhaps you would consider re-posting. At your convenience and discretion, of course.

[Steveg]

What is the status of the MMM Notes?

 

I queried directly. Pipper1's mailbox is full. He needs to clear some messages.

 

It looks like Pipper1's last post on II was 1/24/2012.

Edited March 17, 2012 by Steveg

[pcguy007]

I think all the forum prior thread was deleted since no one has responded

 

 

What is the status of the MMM Notes?

[Steveg]

Most folks may already be familiar with this, but may find it of interest to Google "London open strategy". There are a variety of non-hocus-pocus systems that trade based on the common observation that the period preceeding the London open tends to be a low volume period of consolidation. These are breakout systems using one or more variations to enter and exit a trade. One may wish to compare and contrast these systems to the Market Maker method. Reasonable comment welcome, of course, from apostles and skeptics alike.

[Steveg]

My prognostication at this early hour (10 P.M. Pacific DST) is that the GBPJPY is due for a breakdown of the Asian range. The London market does not open till 1:00 A.M (Pacific DST) so we have 3 hours to observe. Movement during the Asian range often gets active during the last 1-2 hours before the London open. That movement may be more prognostic of subsequent direction. At this point my reasoning is that the GBP has made a double top with MACD negative divergence. Momentum preceeds price (except when it doesn't). I am looking at a 15 minute chart. A downside attractor may be the bottom formed intra day at 131.82. A good stop raid temptation. What makes this scenario perlious is that the 1 hour chart shows a steady uptrend over the last two days. And the daily shows an uptrend since mid-January. If there is a downside movement, I would not anticipate it will go far. Probably limited to the last downside bottom. Possibly the last peak at 131.70. That would be decent, but the market is perverse. And then back the other way.

 

2:45 A.M. Pacific DST. Price began its move in the last hour before the London opening. Reaching thus far 131.45. Now in consolidation.

 

It makes sense to mark the range of the Asian consolidation 1-2 hours before the London session begins even though the Asian session is still active. Those later hours appear to be when serious moves in a given currency begin.

 

7:25 A.M. Pacific DST. As can be seen, the consolidation noted earlier turned into a double bottom leading to a straight climb back to the top of the Asian range (about 132.39). This is in the major upward trend direction. Though the current peak is higher than the previous, it is accompanied by negative MACD divergence (30 minute chart). The latter part of this move might also be characterized as a raid on stops. Markets look for liquidity. Or as Willie Sutton might have said, "That's where the money is."

Edited March 19, 2012 by Steveg

[Steveg]

10 P.M. Pacific DST. I am inclined to a scenario similar to the one I previously posted on GBPJPY. Price is in consolidation, with downward momentum (negative divergence) on the MACD. If price breaks down, a first modest target choice may be the uptrend line from the two prior retracement lows, and then the prior low about 1.3449. One day and 1 hour uptrend still in effect.

 

5:42 Pacific DST. The market went north. I cancelled my sell stop below the Asian range. (That is, my plans went south.)

 

Hindsight: The indication of upward price direction came after the London open (5 minute chart). One might have heeded that and placed a buy order above the Asian range. That is a change from prognostication to trading real time market action with expectation of continuation.

Edited March 20, 2012 by Steveg

[heisamit]

Steveg is there any way you could tell us the strategy behind this method...

Regards

Heisamit

 

You could PM that to me...thanks

[Steveg]

heisamit: There is nothing proprietary about what I did. The general idea is to appraise what is happening during the Asian range before the London market open. Though the market in this pair (GBPJPY) is trending up on the hourly and daily, on the shorter (15 minute) time frame, I saw consolidation, perhaps a rounding top, and negative divergence (primarily with MACD). That suggested a (tradeable) downward correction. I placed a sell stop order about 5 pips below the bottom of the Asian range. The market went the other way. In general, one uses the Asian range, a period of typically low volume and consolidation (though there are variations), to frame a breakout trade. Tops and bottoms are frequently formed here for the succeeding day's trade. Look for London open trades on Google. You'll find a number of similar methods. This approach worked nicely on the previous day with this pair. It corrected, and then resumed the upward trend. You could have traded both ways. A variation is to place buy and sell orders above and below the Asian trading range. If one gets filled, cancel the other. The risk is getting whipsawed. I suggest a period of study before live trading. Edited March 20, 2012 by Steveg

[pcguy007]

Ok need a little help, I'm having trouble finding the high and or the low of the day, do i look for it on H1 or H4 or should i stay with M15? Can anyone help with identifing the high/low and then showing the cycle count?

 

thanks

[Jekyllheckler]

The high and low of the day is essentially the high or low of previous day. It can be seen on any timeframe but easier on the higher timeframes. You can mark it with a horizontal priceline manually, or find a custom indicator for the charting package you are using. The cycle and count are a bit more complicated and will depend more on your own perception than any indicator. The best way to build confidence is to go back in time and analyze your charts: ie the homework aspect.

 

Hope this helps.

[hart3000]

Steveg -- I posted about the "boring method" in the related FF thread, not in II. Mixed that up. Apologies.

 

If I may be so bold, perhaps you would consider re-posting. At your convenience and discretion, of course.

 

I believe this MMM subset is too boring for most traders. It requires a high degree of discipline and patience. Most of days, you won't take any trade at all, just stare 3 - 5 hours at your charts. That's pretty hard. Nevertheless, here is a simplified summary:

 

Notice every MW developing on the 15m charts. Only take the strong MWs, i.e. when 1h and 4h TDI support. Find examples of what 1h/4h TDI "support" means in my earlier FF postings.

 

What you get this way is something similar to SM's 33-Trade. Take only 50 pips on 20 pips risk, regardless how strong the trade appears. Stop trading for the week once you reach 100 pips net profit (100 pips / 20 pips = 5R = 5 x risk).

 

With 1R = 1% of account size, you grow your account by 5% per week. Assuming 9 months of effective trading per year (some weeks you won't find any strong MWs or miss them, sometimes, you may simply want to take a vacacion), you turn $10k into $10k x 1.05^(9x4) = $10k x 5.79 = $57.9K, which translates into a net gain of 479%. Would you consider that a decent result?

Edited March 27, 2012 by hart3000

[Steveg]

Hart3000: I think that is a fine contribution. Trades may take a while to appear, but translate "boring" into patient and disciplined. More to your point, it is waiting for the higher probability trades to show up. Is it correct that you are primarily trading the London session?

[hart3000]

Hart3000: I think that is a fine contribution. Trades may take a while to appear, but translate "boring" into patient and disciplined. More to your point, it is waiting for the higher probability trades to show up. Is it correct that you are primarily trading the London session?

 

Yes. I rarely enter trades after 0400 EDT (1000 GMT).

[Steveg]

Originally posted by IanFoster on a previous thread regarding the MM Method:

 

"The amount of time I spent here is about the same as you and others who kept replying to me or continue to criticize the method. I am not a spy I am a paying student. And I am not spying this thread, I am pointing out our wish as paying students that we do not want the recordings distributed like that, even if you guys think it is a scam. So what if 754 of us are duped into paying $5K for nothing? It is still not right to distribute for people to take a "cursory glance". I'm not discussing the contents but it is something we students do not want shared. Thanks"

 

And this from another poster:

 

" Dear ianf0ster,

 

Will you please stop BLURB OUT nonsense, we're all here to educate ourselves"

 

And this:

 

"Thanks moderator for banning that (descriptive term deleted) Newbie ianf0ster"

 

FYI

[Captain]

EURUSD Short trade, 2nd April 2012 London Session

 

Hi Guys,

 

long time no see. Being busy on Al Brooks Price Action, MAX-10 and 11, etc (paused trading for a while).

 

One extremely point of view of Al Brooks that I've learned (on MMM) was on Reversal.

 

- Reversal would never occurred without a strong momentum of pullback (breaking trend line), then retrace back to test the initial extreme high/Low to form either double top, triple top or HS (W / M formation, this is align with Dragon pattern and london close noble entry). On this point SM could only tell "take only the crystal clear setup".

 

- Along the trend, the wave would tend to temp trader to think that the trend is going to reverse (which is not without the sign as the above point). In fact 80% of the failed. This situation lead the newbies of MMM student to take every M / W formation + Divergence thinking that they caught the top/bottom and finally killing their account. They never realize that during the strong trend the RSI is keep diverging.

 

- Therefore, SM point on "Take only the crystal clear setup" need to be carefully explored with Price Action.

 

Well, followings are my short trade today (#-3).

- First entry 2 units (72 + 70 = 142 pips)

- Second entry 3 units (28 25 24 = 77 pips)

- Total = 219 pips

 

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/1658/euapr2.gif

 

#-1, we were in a topping formation. There has been a break of TL as well as a strong momentum of pullback and failed test to the initial extreme. It was a triple top (two needles to the blue), failed testing of previous day's high as well as test to the previous week high. Conclusion: I would expecting a short trade (stop hunt to the high / straight short trade)

 

#-2 Entering 2 units short, showing by the green line (trade 1 and trade 2), place stop and TP at the next Demand area (#-8).

 

#-4 I was out for a dinner and missing 2 opportunity of scale-in. On the third opportunity I placed 3 unit of short (green line # 5 and # 4)

 

#-6 Bearish Momentum were strong so I was confidently adjusted all stops behind the previous high

 

#-7 Exit on the unusually long bar right on US open. I should probably observe PA but I usually avoid to stay late during US session.

 

Some other consideration (I would exit anyway) :

- It was an unusually long bar (PA matters)

- ADR reached

- TL and EMA 200 breached (Price might back to test the TL and EMA 200 then continue down during US session)

- GBPUSD was only showing a ZigZag correction (not a reversal formation yet). I would expecting GBPUSD made reversal formation while EURUSD retrace to mayo/water during US session.

Edited April 2, 2012 by Captain

[Nukem]

Originally posted by IanFoster on a previous thread regarding the MM Method:

 

"The amount of time I spent here is about the same as you and others who kept replying to me or continue to criticize the method. I am not a spy I am a paying student. And I am not spying this thread, I am pointing out our wish as paying students that we do not want the recordings distributed like that, even if you guys think it is a scam. So what if 754 of us are duped into paying $5K for nothing? It is still not right to distribute for people to take a "cursory glance". I'm not discussing the contents but it is something we students do not want shared. Thanks"

 

And this from another poster:

 

" Dear ianf0ster,

 

Will you please stop BLURB OUT nonsense, we're all here to educate ourselves"

 

And this:

 

"Thanks moderator for banning that (descriptive term deleted) Newbie ianf0ster"

 

FYI

 

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but ianf0ster is back. The ban must have been temporary. He's apparently turned to the dark side. He was requesting copy writed material in another thread, an action that he so adamantly condemned on this thread with his disruptive posts.

Edited April 4, 2012 by Nukem

[Steveg]

Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

Please be aware that the previous Market Maker Thread was shut down by the Indo-Investasi administrators when they were allegedly threatened for allowing sharing of MM Method webinar recordings. At least one previous MM thread was also discontinued. The latest shut-down led to making a lot of shared commentary, trading methodology, and valuable information unavailable. The administrators may have over-reacted. It may only have been necessary to omit the links to the software. Perhaps it will not happen again. The complete shut down may have served the purpose of the MMM advocates and supporters. In view of the history, I suggest it is inadvisable to post direct software links on the public forum.

[KelvinHand]

Head & Shoulder

 

http://i.imgur.com/4WWTO.jpg

 

Just for Fun - Was a Crystal Clear Setup, roughly:

 

"...There are 2 pins to R1, 1-2-3 to the high, sell setup in the Asia Session, It happen sometimes.

3 levels rise to the Top, RR Track High, They Shift the Zone of that high and drop, then they trade back toward the peak to hit the stop.

 

How do I know is level 3 ? Head & Shoulder pattern

 

Redraw the (Level 1 consolidation) box, MM make to move back to trigger the stop, induce the trader to go long, (to make trader think that it is) trend continuation. You saw the setup - against the peak, do not trade back toward the peak at level 1 consolidation, it is a sucker trade. Stop thinking it is a trend continuation, the retail traders think that way but MM got a different idea. ..."

Edited April 3, 2012 by KelvinHand

[Captain]

Short Trade EURUSD and GBPUSD - Apr, 3rd

 

342 PIPS

 

As I have been saying in my posted trade yesterday, EURUSD has been in topping structure but GBPUSD haven't.

 

Today GBPUSD has shown a topping structure and strong sign of reversal or at least ready for a correction.

 

Therefore my bias for today would be SHORT. So I'd be looking for Straight Short or Stop Hunt to high.

 

Initially the price was reluctant to move but I saw a growing bearish momentum on GBPUSD so I placed 2 units short on GBPUSD. EURUSD wasn't showing any sign but I place 2 units short in tandem with GBPUSD.

 

Later my 2 units short on EURUSD was run over by a long wick of stop hunt right in to M3 made me confident on my short position. The same long wick on M15 later forming a failed test of high on M5 so I re-enter a short on the wick.

 

The momentum keep growing so I keep scaled-in 6 units GBPUSD and 6 units EURUSD.

 

Before US session there were a wave-4 correction on EURUSD above 200-EMA and a hammer on GBPUSD. I have already at 342 Pips so although ADR hasn't been reach and realize that the move could still resume during US session, I close all my orders since I have been heavily scaled in.

 

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4582/euapr3a.gif

 

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/8495/guapr3a.gif

 

6 units GBPUSD; 44, 44, 41, 37, 29, 10 = 205

6 units EURUSD; 41, 26, 26, 22, 22, -0.2 = 137

 

Total = 342 Pips

 

As usual I am rarely stay late for US session unless the momentum is strong.