Market Makers Thread Aftermath

[Steveg]

Here we are, 10 minutes short of the London open, a flat market, and no volatility to speak of.

 

12:05 A.M. (Pacific): Yawn. Wake me when its over.

 

2:13 A.M. (Pacific): A 15-minute chart shows a small upside move out of the Asian range. Not many pips. It looks more interesting on a 5-minute chart where one sees a distinct double top. The second peak has a long pin to the upside. Also, downside divergence (stochastics). But this is all compressed movement (low time frame). So my first expectation is if it moves down, it would seem that the target would just be within the Asian session range (atypically narrow). Bear in mind that the longer time frame (1-hour) still is moving up. That suggests support, and limited (perhaps very limited) downside movement. Of course, only The Shadow (and the all-knowing, all- powerful market makers) know.

 

3:56 A.M. (Pacific) So much for that fantasy (of downward movement). Price could get no lower than the top of the Asian range. Then back to the upside. It now looks like it wants to correct or consolidate. Did the market makers ever hear of random movement (noise)? One would have to think that the underlying uptrend is dominating the action thus far. Price is tracking in an orderly fashion along an upward center of gravity line on 15M, 30M, and 1H charts.

Edited February 24, 2012 by Steveg

[hart3000]

Also, make sure you are using room #MW (not #WM).

 

I logged in during london session, i didn't see anyone their, i left it open for 3 hours.

 

weird

[hart3000]

Nice and useful post. Thank you Ianf0ster. Agree with your statements. Fundamentals kick in unpredictably most of the time. Analysts just build narratives. Only the best guys such as Jim Rogers (well connected in international finance and playing this like a chess game several hours per day) master fundamental trading. And even he is usually off with his timing by a couple of weeks or months.

 

all these fundamentals analysis don't work. (...)

[pcguy007]

I checked during london this morning and saw a couple of people log in but there was no activity

 

hart3000 posted his instructions both here and at FF thread. most likely you did not follow the procedures and entered wrong room or "created" your own room somewhere alone. otherwise no reason that you cannot find or join the correct room after so many days.

[pcguy007]

I logged in and saw wartime login and then logout, was the room active during london today?

 

 

Also, make sure you are using room #MW (not #WM).

[Steveg]

EURUSD simply continued its uptrend. Those who trade breakouts of the Asian range, or continued with the up trend (your friend), would have had a nice trade. The rest appears to be over-analysis.

[pcguy007]

I logged into 3 rooms during asian session to make sure, i logged into #MW and #WM and #VSA, i stayed logged into all rooms till ny session

all rooms had zero activity, no sure why i think my pc is haywire

i re-checked all settings but everything looks fine

i'll try again next week

 

 

yep, that should be the reason. people went to the wrong (empty) room.

[Steveg]

Are you sure ?

When price in a consolidation, what use of divergence to tell you ?

 

I am not sure I answered your question in an earlier post. I also don't want to tell you something you already know. If price is in consolidation, and indicators are moving downward, or the last indicator peak is lower than an earlier peak, that suggests that price consolidation will give way to a downward move (except when it doesn't).

[Steveg]

Does anyone have a good explanation of "fractional disparity". From where does the term originate?

[KelvinHand]

I am not sure I answered your question in an earlier post. I also don't want to tell you something you already know. If price is in consolidation, and indicators are moving downward, or the last indicator peak is lower than an earlier peak, that suggests that price consolidation will give way to a downward move (except when it doesn't).

 

OK. finally understood.

[Jekyllheckler]

Does anyone have a good explanation of "fractional disparity". From where does the term originate?

 

My take on fractional disparity is where parity would be a proportional move (EU, EJ, EA, EG etc going up/down together), disparity would be a disproportional move(EU flat, EJ, EA, EG going up/down). The fractional part would comprise something in between without a fundamental reason and at no specific rate. Hence when the major pair chops while the crosses move, some serious capital would be working to manipulate the market to their advantage. Eventually the pairs will catch up. If you can catch it early, you can make some decent low risk gains. Again this is my two cents and understanding. Easy in hindsight but tough at the hard right edge. As far as origination it sounds good in the marketing scheme of things. Compound words always sound better.

Edited February 25, 2012 by Jekyllheckler
Addition

[Steveg]

Jeckyl: Great explanation. Insofar as EURUSD is the most widely traded currency pair, do we have any understanding how its movement could be *manipulated* relative to other currencies? In other words, how credible is the "manipulation" scenario relative to other possible reasons? Is "fractional disparity" a widely accepted term?

[Steveg]

OK. finally understood.

 

The MACD is a popular indicator often used to determine divergence. MACD consists of a long and short moving average establishing trend, one moving average subtracted from the other. The farther apart the moving averages, the greater the momentum. The closer the moving averages, the less the momentum. Momentum decrease gives the first indication of a possible change in trend. Therefore even if price stays level or increases, a decrease in momentum, i.e., divergence, may possibly portend a change in trend direction. Trend direction may change, but does not irrevocably change.

 

Here is a good article on MACD including the use of divergence: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_conve#moving_average_conve

[Steveg]

KelvinHand knows all about such oscillators. He is well trained in Andrew Cardwell Jr teachings in proper use of RSI.

 

Thank you. I am sure Kelvin Hand can speak for himself.

[Steveg]

Why wouldn't EURUSD continue it's uptrend? Those who studied the markets long enough sees certain patterns repeatedly. This was posted at 12:46amEST two hours before London open, and they benefited subsequently.

http://i.imgur.com/xFC4S.png

 

Do you have any market observations of your own?

[hart3000]

Thanks Ianf0ster. I think you are right. I assume, Pcguy007 is on a different server. If you join room #MW on the wrong server, you simply create a new (unregistered) room. So make sure you are connecting to server chat.ircforex.com, port 6697. There, you find our registered room "#MW".

 

Please refer to detailed instructions above.

 

You are not following hart3000's instructions properly. He has given clear steps on how to login at FF thread and also here. (...)

Edited February 25, 2012 by hart3000

[whakamaru]

Yes, useless over-analysis that usually ends with ".... time will tell". Why not join our live chatroom and see how 'don' and 'wartime' called the EU buys right before London open. Then 'hart3000' and 'sutts' will come in later to show their excellent views too.

 

Analysis or over-analysis, without the conviction to take the trade, don't make money. Just flowery english and predictions that "it call go both ways". Calling trades right on the spot, at the right moment is the way. We'll tell you when to take the trade, then show pictures explanations later. If we can't get you into a profitable trade, no point showing glorious after-the-fact winning charts. Once you are in our profitable trades, then we can take our time to explain and teach and you will listen more patiently. We give trades first, teach later, with pictures, and answers all questions.

http://i.imgur.com/tXAb2.png

 

Who are the WE

Edited February 25, 2012 by whakamaru

[KelvinHand]

KelvinHand knows all about such oscillators. He is well trained in Andrew Cardwell Jr teachings in proper use of RSI.

 

Hi ianf0ster & Steveg,

 

Yes. I understand Andrew Cardwell's technique but cannot said that i m well trained.

 

I was looking at the RSI range shift. And at M15 there was a perfect 80-40 bullish range shift.

When Steveg mentioned short for 10min, there was a perfect hook back at RSI level 40. it is also bounce the EMA50.

 

This hook back point also formed a positive reversal (Hidden Divergence) that that tell the likely trend continuation.

 

 

Also from the H1 in strong uptrend, the price consolidation at M15 was shown as small body candlesticks regress toward the EMA13.

 

However, MACD below signal line cannot tell anything except knowing that it bull region when it above zero. Stochastic need to reduce period lower to see the divergence.

 

As for the RSI, when in the bull trend, conventional OB/OS at 30/70 will not work, the bull range shift again work to tell that even at level 70, it still can go up to 80-90. This also explain the few posts by Steveg mentioned about OS and yet it still go up.

 

As for Steveg explanation was right on MACD, and on price consolidation will cause the MACD to retrace to near 0 line cause the fast and slow EMAs come closed together. However, Price consolidation can cause multiples bullish and bearish divergences between peak n trough points in the indicator. Because MACD is so smooth that unless you are good at that.

 

I accept Steveg's viewpoint of the latest post cause it is something new to me. it seen make sense to me when i look at the RSI. Only question is how you determine the actual last peak/trough point.

 

Hope steveg can show the picture on this EURUSD to clear doubt.

Edited February 25, 2012 by KelvinHand

[f451]

Oscillators like MAC, CCI, RSI, will not work when prices are extended, hence oversold becomes more oversold or overbought becomes more overbought. That's the only condition when oscillators don't work.

 

if by "extended" you mean "trending" then I agree. For a range, however, oscillators rock.

[pcguy007]

He said he checked his settings so after so many days and so many posts, I don't think he will ever get it. But for those who found their way into the room, here are a list of forex-related channels available on chat.ircforex.com:

#MW (obviously)

#VSA

#EURUSD

#Fundamentals

#daydayprofit

#fxtrade

#noob

#forex

#pips

#tsx

 

Thanks ianf0ster and hart3000 for your help somehow i was typing chat.ircforex.com:6697 and i realized i forgot the + DUH.

It might have worked if i had opened my damn eyes LOL

 

thanks again

[Steveg]

Kelvin: I left a link in a previous post leading to Stockcharts.com where they have a very good tutorial on MACD in their Chart School. When I tried the link it didn't work (it got me into Stockcharts.com but not the MACD section). Once you get to the MACD section you will see numerous examples of MACD use and divergence. Perhaps the most important is the one that points out strong negative divergence that doesn't work "because the trend is too strong".

[hermes]

Friday's closes are generally a dead ends. I don't trade and don't let trade EAs on Monday and Friday. Most potent are Wednesdays and Thursdays.

Hermes

[Jekyllheckler]

Hey ianf0ster, when you post other peoples work you should at least give them credit. If not, then you are guilty of plagiarism. Above post courtesy of Bryan Rich.

[Steveg]

EURUSD rose in a gradual ascending trend from the beginning of the Asian session to its end, making a seemingly characteristic dip during the last hour, from which it recovered. Price actually started its rise as a counter move to the previous British session down move, beginning at about 9:30 A.M. Eastern during the New York session. At the British open price went slightly above the top of an extended Asian range, but has not gone far, essentially staying in the top third of that range. Tricky. The New York market opened 50 minutes ago. No sign yet of that having much influence (some downside correction). How are folks trading this from a MM perspective...or any perspective? A scalper's market? Edited February 28, 2012 by Steveg

[⭐ Unclepips]

I sold EUR/USD right before 830AM NYT this morning. the price that I got was at 1.3450 with a 33 pips stop loss (1.3483). and will lock in profit once I get 30 pips. If I get it. Well, I hope. I will look to get out of it around 6PM nyt.