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Benny3's Trading jounal

benny3

By benny3
in Technical Analysis

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chrisbenjy Newbie

chrisbenjy

Posted
Posted

Hey syk1kz and benny,

 

Can you please post a few more images of your trades, because I don't know what I'm doing wrong. I'm following the system and bringing my knowledge into decisions, but it's not happening. I've taken 7 trades and had only 1 winner, whereas you both seen to win almost all the time.

 

I'm hoping I can learn some more from you both because at the moment I suck at trading. I thought I was quite knowledgeable about forex (I still think I am), but I can't seem to be profitable.

 

I read somewhere that this is a point in trading that everyone goes through and is where most quit, but I'm determined to make it and I'm not giving up :) .

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syk1kz Newbie

syk1kz

Posted
Posted

chrisbenjy your dedication is admirable and your attitude is positive which is a good start. I cant speak for Benny but i am a little subjective when it comes to entering these trades. By that i mean i do not take 90% of the signals i see because i expect them to fail, And more often than not taking every trade with this system will result in loosing trades more often than winning trades, which you seem to be experiencing. The way i have over come this is by utilizing multiple time frames, looking for stochastics divergence before trading, not trading Mondays or Fridays. This probably does not help, but as Benny said is one of his last 2-3posts, you just need to feel the market out sometimes, and more often than not that is what i do. Also using fundamental analysis helps alot, knowing why the markets are doing what they are doing helps me. I will post some examples of current setups and why i will not trade them.

 

 

Europe is in crisis with all the defaults and bailouts going on, any long positions would be pretty crazy - IMO

 

EURCAD

looking at the weekly time frame i see a 2 year trend line that has just held and bounced.

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/3038/eurcad2.gif

 

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/6402/eurcad.gif

 

So now if we look at the 4 hourly chart i see a nice A setup that formed a few candles back, sure it looks good but using a higher time frame tells me it is actually a horrible trade to take. So i ignored this long and saved a loss. But what i like to do, and this is where i get subjective, is zoom into the hourly or even 15 minute time frame and use the system on there looking for a short, sometimes the hourly is still to high and retraces stall middle BB. When i notice price stall around the middle BB i will jump to the 15 minute and look for a candlestick formation that i like enough to get me into a position. As i said highly subjective and hardly something anybody could probably mimic or copy. i will think about it a bit and post some more charts with a better explanation of what i look for.

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syk1kz Newbie

syk1kz

Posted
Posted (edited)

I took a short on the guppy last night for 270 pips which i did tweet to all my followers. The trade was taken based on this system but with my own little bit of subjective trading thrown in. I will show you exactly what i did and why i did it.

 

first i noted what i like to call floor support, which means price just sits on a level for a while, this tells me it will break out past that level and continue its journey. i have marked this in white.

http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/2075/gbpjpy.gif

 

Next i go to the hourly chart and look at the size of the BB and stochastics which again i have marked in white, Once i see some divergence on stochastics this tells me that price action is going to move very soon

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/1218/gbpjpy2.gif

 

I want a nice entry so i now go to the m15 chart.

 

WE have already noted that the round number was acting as support, so all i waited for was a clean break and enter with one or two or twenty positions, whatever you want.

I exited in an obvious spot and was quiet happy with the way i took this trade.

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/5862/gbpjpy3.gif

 

Now i know this probably does not help you much, but if we look most pairs we see price likes to hug the BB some what, how would you enter this pair when it is trend like it is? what about the next 3 pictures after it?

 

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/6969/audnzd.gif

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/6402/eurcad.gif

http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/5769/usdchfd.gif

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2195/audjpy.gif

 

 

All of these have white lines marked showing clear trends that get nowhere near the bottom or top BB, Meaning technically we cannot enter. But why are we restricted to the 4hourly chart? I don't think we are and i actually think only using this time frame is a big mistake. This time frame is great for identifying a trend in its early stages but not so good for catching these moves once the initial signal is missed. My problem was when i took every single signal most turned out to be duds, i was not looking outside of the 4 hourly time frame EVER and it cost me time and frustration. Looking at the weekly chart is sort of like looking into the future i think.

 

So in the next post we will onto a current setup rather than showing history and what could of happened or would of happened if i might of done this or might of done that.

 

I need time to find something relevant and use full rather than not

Edited by syk1kz
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syk1kz Newbie

syk1kz

Posted
Posted (edited)

Ok here is a nice setup using the exact method i have described above, but before i go into detail i would like to add that the above is only one way i trade using this system.

 

 

Here we have round number support, daily trendline support and stochastics divergence, now i got stopped out on this for break even the other day, and since then i have been waiting for this exact setup to appear. What i like about this is the fact that is has broken down past the round number, retraced, then attempted to break past it again, and retraced again with some stochastics divergence present.

 

Daily trend line

http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/892/nzdjpy2.gif

 

Now on the 4 hourly we see it thus far has held

http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/9585/nzdjpy.gif

 

With a stop just below the current visible low [ 61.80 ] which is about 20-25pips the risk:reward is quiet large if we follow the price up the BB when it hugs it, if i am wrong well an average of 4-5 looser's to a winner is acceptable

 

Hourly shows some of the same things

 

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/6477/nzdjpy4.gif

 

Now if we zoom into the M15 we can see a potential double bottom of the support level, along with further divergence present. All this weighs up but does not guarantee anything.

 

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/2555/nzdjpy3.gif

 

I expect to get stopped out of this but i am ok with a 20pip hit for a 1 or 2 hundred pip payoff

 

I have also taken this with a stoploss of about 40-45 pips with a hard takeprofit of 170pips, good RR which counters any loosers. 0.74 hard support and daily trendline

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/1160/nzdusd.gif

 

Again if i get stopped out the loss is small so it is ok compared to what i could bag from here.

Edited by syk1kz
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syk1kz Newbie

syk1kz

Posted
Posted (edited)

flip side to both the NZD trades would be get short on a break of the trend line, which is what i will do if i get stopped out.

 

Note the floor support here, along with stochastics getting into overbought again, in my opinion this was simply a retrace of yesterdays drop which i mentioned earlier, and a clear break of the round number support would lead me to short, again. I know this isn't sticking to the system but this is what i am doing quiet often with good success. I will be brutally honest and say the system only works when you are picky as hell, which is good but if you want more trades then you need to take a pro active approach to trading and sometimes pull the trigger based on what we see happening, not what we want to happen

 

http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/9890/gbpjpy0.gif

Edited by syk1kz
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syk1kz Newbie

syk1kz

Posted
Posted

I also want to quickly cover some of the proper setups that are meant to be taken using this system

 

Firstly we have a fairly valid A setup here which i have circled, Since i made it clear before i was watching this pair why didn't i take the circled engulfing A setup? Well i can't really answer that clearly, Sure you probably banked pips at middle BB, but look how close the middle BB was at that point in time, also notice the lack of any real bullish momentum. One engulfing candle does not mean much when the downtrend is so strong. All subjective, its just my style i trade what i see and agree with not just what i see.

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/9585/nzdjpy.gif

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syk1kz Newbie

syk1kz

Posted
Posted (edited)

banked profit

http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/9585/nzdjpy.gif

 

Possibly could of held it longer, i expect the price to hug the top BB now, which as we can see from the previous hugging session it lasted quiet a while

 

http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/9585/nzdjpy.gif

 

 

watching eurusd now, notice how it has never made it past the middle BB using the H4 chart? What about the hourly?

Not a valid A setup, it is more of a trend following B setup - but i like shorting euro enough to jump on board should i see bearish follow through

 

H4

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/9472/eurusdm.gif

H1

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/9351/eurusd2.gif

Edited by syk1kz
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syk1kz Newbie

syk1kz

Posted
Posted (edited)

Obvious A setups, no explanation should be required for regular viewers of this thread.

http://img704.imageshack.us/img704/3438/eurgbpt.gif

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/9795/gbpusdf.gif

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/764/eurusdg.gif

 

I will post here if any positions are taken but possibly with some delay.

 

 

On another note i said i was going live with this system this month but since i am being so subjective i have decided to hold off until after xmas. And i would rather spend the money on something else at this point in time.

Edited by syk1kz
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syk1kz Newbie

syk1kz

Posted
Posted (edited)

next setup i like - I should mention my BB deviation setting is 3 not the default 2 so price may not always reach the top BB but it we compare it to 2 i think 3 shows better outer bands - Personal preference. Only problem with this we have the AU RBA rate decision due out in 5hours...

 

DEVIATION: 3

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/6969/audnzd.gif

 

 

DEVIATION: 2

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/9690/audnzd2.gif

 

Also i know i said default setups with no multi frame analysis but this shows the importance of this round number resistance

 

Weekly Chart

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/7660/audnzd3.gif

Edited by syk1kz
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syk1kz Newbie

syk1kz

Posted
Posted (edited)

Hopefully it is obvious whats going on here, waiting for some reversal confirmation.

[http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/1563/75897671.gif

 

 

still watching this, i think its going to put in some divergence, but that's just my theory, we will see soon enough

 

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/3396/54345343.gif

Edited by syk1kz
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