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USD/JPY continues to gain on debt ceiling speculation



FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY has been the bellwether pair of the US debt ceiling stand-off, with the yen strengthening into any fears that Congress will fail to pass a bill to extend the limit before October 17.

Today has seen the yen falling from its eight-week highs on speculation that there will be a breakthrough in the deadlock that has led to the first US government shutdown in 17 years.

But despite market sentiment, there seems to be little in the way of reassuring language coming from The Hill. Republican House Speaker John Boehner has maintained that the House will not pass a clean debt limit extension bill, ie. one that does not include provisions for a cut in federal spending. However, the Democrat-controlled senate will not approve anything that comes with policy riders, particularly that would delay the implementation of the Affordable Care Act.

Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has warned that congress is playing with fire over the debt ceiling. He will answer questions about the debt ceiling in front of the Senate Finance Committee, on Thursday, which pay present an opportunity for Republicans to ascertain areas of potential compromise.

USD/JPY has gained 0.46 percent so far today, after touching a session high of JPY97.2415.




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Oct 08,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD benefits from Yellen bounce ahead of tomorrow's job numbers



FXstreet.com (London) - AUD has rallied strongly in advance of President Obamas nomination of Janet Yellen as the successor to US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The ultra-dovish Yellen is seen as likely to be slow in tapering the Feds USD85bn monthly asset purchase programme, continuing to provide cheap liquidity to the markets. Despite being a foregone conclusion since Larry Summers resignation from the race in September, the confirmation of Yellens nomination has helped to rally AUD/USD 0.32 percent to USD0.9454.

The Aussie dollar has been helped in anticipation of continuing commodity price support from the Fed.

A further temporary AUD boost could be in store tomorrow, when it is anticipated that payroll numbers will show a September increase, aided by temporary workers hired during the general election. However Australia is still struggling with unemployment at a four-year high of 5.8 percent something that could lead to the already dovish Reserve Bank of Australia to further slash its historic low 2.5 percent benchmark rate.





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Oct 09,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/CHF above 1.2300 as August added a more positive outlook on Germany


FXstreet.com (Athens) The EUR/CHF broke the 1.2300 handle again, after the data released in Germany earlier showed that the power horse is gradually leaving the disappointing July numbers behind.

EUR/CHF spikes above 1.2300 as August gives a shiny outlook on Germanys industry

The EUR/CHF has been trading steadily upwards since the opening of the Asian trading session except for a couple of hours in the mid European trading session. However, after the power horse of Euro land released data that painted a solid growth outlook totally out of the blue the EUR/CHF gained solid support and is now hovering again above 1.2300 handle. Being more précised, industrial production in Germany increased by 1.4% on a monthly basis from a 1.1% decline in July, while it showed that it is up 0.3% on a yearly basis.

Technical Outlook on EUR/CHF

Our personal aspect of view remains the same; will the cross manage to overcome the 1.2317 area where the 30 daily MA standing over, while also it is just above the crucial 1.2315 level of the Fibonacci retracement as of 1.2215-1.2415? We should take upon major consideration the area as of 1.2312-1.2317 as also in 1.2312 we will find the 200-daily MA. Thus, the upper trend movement should overcome the above reef levels, in order the cross to trade higher. Karen Jones, Head Technical Analyst at Commerzbank mentions that the EUR/CHF tested and rebounded off the 1.2217 June low. Rallies are now expected to remain capped by the 1.2312 200 day ma. Note only above 1.2315 will alleviate immediate downside pressure. This leaves the market vulnerable on the downside to further losses and it targets 1.2135/32, the April lows.





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Oct 09,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/GBP bid making fresh highs


FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/GBP has made two attempts to the upside, reaching a high of 0.8488 on the session.

Research teams at TD Securities noted that data releases from the calendar and said, UK data this morning were all around disappointing, with industrial and manufacturing production as well as trade data for August all notably missing expectations.the releases knocked GBP/USD lower. The BoE tomorrow should be a non-event with no change to the policy rate or the asset purchase programthe one clear risk is that this is the month they decide to start releasing their monthly statements leaving some potential for GBP shock. And with regards to the EZ, they said, An upside surprise to German industrial production data was the key fundamental development in the Eurozone overnight, but did little to offset the pressure on EUR/USD from earlier in the session.

EUR/GBP Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.8406, the 50 DMA is 0.8499 and the 200 DMA is 0.8518. RSI (14) 63.84. Supports are ascending from 0.8365, 0.8376, 0.8404, 0.8424, 0.8439, 0.8463, 0.8475, 0.8488 and 0.8505.





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Oct 09,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD on the up on dollar weakness


FXstreet.com (London) - The NZD/USD has climbed through the handle of 0.83 and is currently oscillating there supported in the 0.8290s.

US jobless claims data disappointed while the ongoing concerns around the debt ceiling are heating up as we approach the deadline. Over in New Zealand, Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.3. Delving into the components, production, employment, new orders, finished stocks and deliveries fell across the board, perhaps responding to the on going elevated NZD, explained research teams at TD Securities.

NZD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.8283, the 50 DMA is 0.8067 and the 200 DMA is 0.8182. RSI (14) reads 56.08. Supports are ascending from 0.8130, 0.8165, 0.8194, 0.8238 and 0.8249. Spot is currently 0.8297. Resistances are 0.8310, 0.8337, 0.8352 and 0.8374.





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Oct 10,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: staring at the debt ceiling, risk of a 2013 downgrade? Rabobank


FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams look at the market implications around a possibility of Republicans and Democrats failing to reach an agreement in time.

Key Quotes:

We look back at the debt ceiling events of 2011 to get an idea what kind of market reaction we can expect before and after the debt ceiling deadline of October 17.Interestingly, they suggest only modest safe have flows before the deadline, as the perceived risk of a default remains low.

The large declines in the 10y US treasury yield in 2011 occurred after the deal to raise the debt ceiling was made, first because of the perceived risk of a downgrade, then because S&P actually pulled the trigger".

However, the budget deficit has fallen substantially this year and the fiscal projections have also improved. This makes a downgrade in 2013 less likely, so the market impact of this years debt ceiling deadline should be less violent, unless Republicans and Democrats fail to reach an agreement in time".






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Oct 10,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD turns negative


FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Following another failed attempt at 1.6000 and weighed by disappointing UK construction, the GBP/USD retreated to the 1.5950 area, turning intraday negative during the New York session.

The GBP/USD found interim support at the 1.5970 zone, but as the greenback picked up strength, the Cable dropped to a fresh low of 1.5945 before finding support. GBP/USD has recovered slightly and it is currently trading around 1.5955, still 0.1% below its opening price.

GBP/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, if GBP/USD breaks below 1.5945, next supports are seen at 1.5915 (Oct 9 & 10 lows) and 1.5900 (psychological level). On the upside, resistances could be found at 1.6000 (psychological level) and 1.6050 (20-day SMA).




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Oct 11,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF consolidates 0.9120 winning front


FXstreet.com (Chicago) - USD/CHF sustains gains for a 0.57% wining week back above the 0.91 zone amid a possible conflict resolution between democrats and republicans putting an end to the shutdown.

Shutdown continues

Yesterday, republicans agreed on short-term plan to increase the debt ceiling and gain time before it is too late for a US default. After a couple of hours of silence, president Obama said he would not approve the proposal leaving the country with uncertainty. Although Boehner worked overnight trying to negotiate, the shutdown continues despite rally triggered on hopeful spark that sent the equity markets to 9-month highs. On earlier data in the US, the Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was 75.2 vs. expected 76 and past 77.5. Ahead of the Governor Board Member Danthine speech in Switzerland, the pair sustains gains above the 0.9120 zone.

USD/CHF Technical Levels

Technically speaking, the pair is offered at 0.9123 and oscillates between supports aligned at 0.9081 (October 4th highs), 0.9017 (October 9th lows) ahead of 0.8964 (October 4th lows) and the resistances set at 0.9139 (September 25th highs), 0.9176 (August 26th lows) followed by 0.9228 (September 14th lows). According




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Oct 11,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Hopes of a shutdown, debt-ceiling deal boost markets


FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -US markets are extending the bullish momentum on Friday, advancing for the second consecutive session, as hopes of a deal to re-open the US Government shutdown and to rise the debt-ceiling are boosting the sentiment. The greenback, gauged by the US Dollar index, is trimming weekly losses and hovering over 80.40/45. At the moment, DowJones is up 0.63% seconded by the S&P500, 0.55% and the Nasdaq, 0.55%.

Bourses across the pond also closed with gains following renewed hopes of a deal to unlock the US political stand-off. The FTSE100 led the winners, advancing 0.88% and followed by the DAX, 0.45% and the IBEX35, 0.08%. The shared currency is meandering around the middle of the weekly range in the proximities of 1.3540, closely following the developments in the US fiscal front.

In the commodities space, the ounce troy of the precious metal is plummeting more than 2% at $1,266 while barrel of WTI is following the same path,, down 1.42% at $101.55.




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Oct 11,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD/JPY remains supported above 98.00 OCBC



FXstreet.com (Athens) Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank, suggests that the USD/JPY has remained supported above 98.00 in the past few sessions with the US fiscal concerns not managing to infect broader global markets and with investors still hopeful for a eleventh-hour deal.

The situation could still swing both ways in the near term and the pair may remain anchored near its 55-day MA (98.32) within a 98.00-99.00 band pending further cues.





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Oct 16,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD in wait and see mode at trend line resistance?

FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD is attempting the 0.9680 resistances again at the top of the recent bull-run from last weeks 0.9460/80 range.

AUD/USD is rested higher at these levels within a range ahead of tomorrows NFP’s. Research teams at TD Securities said, “The delayed September report is out tomorrow and we look for a 182k gain in payrolls (market +180k), from +169k in August…The USD will remain sensitive to the relative strength/weakness of the data, even though the Fed remains sidelined for the next few months”. Then, they suggested all eyes will be on the Q3 CPI report in Wednesday where they expect a deceleration in the key underlying measure from 2.4%/yr to 2.1%/yr (mkt 2.2%), or a quarterly average print of +0.5%/qtr. “Some estimates are rather lofty, so if we’re wrong, expect the AUD to explode to the topside from here”.

AUD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.9455, the 50 DMA is 0.9280 and the 200 DMA is 0.9757. RSI (14) reads 56.52. Supports are ascending from 0.9548, 0.9564, 0.9604, 0.9625 and 0.9649. Spot is currently 0.9671 while resistances are 0.9680, 0.9700, 0.9716 and 0.9765.

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Oct 21,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD trims losses as USD lacks momentum

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD quickly trimmed intraday losses after falling a 4-day low of 1.6132 at the beginning of the New York session.

The greenback failed to sustain momentum, allowing the GBP/USD to recover some ground and cut losses. However, from a wider view, the Cable remains trapped in a range bounded by 1.6130 on the downside and 1.6180 on the upside as investors await the NFP report to be published Tuesday.

GBP/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, if the GBP/USD breaks below 1.6130, it could fall to 1.6100 (psychological level) and even 1.6065 (100-hour SMA). On the other hand, resistances are now seen at 1.6180 (daily high), 1.6225 (Oct 18 high) and 1.6260 (Oct 1 high).

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Oct 21,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US sells $35B in 3-month bills at 0.035%

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Oct 21,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD jittery ahead of NFP’s tomorrow

FXstreet.com (London) - NZD/USD is jittery ahead of tomorrows NFP’s. The pair opened lower with a gap on the charts and declined 40 pips before reverting on the bid to close the gap.

Research teams at TD Securities said the net permanent migration jumped by +2740 in Sep, where the monthly and annual increase are at decade highs. “The upside pressure on domestic demand is intensifying. Credit card spend in Sep was –0.1%/mth, entirely as expected as the upwardly revised Aug jump of +1.4%/yr”. Later today we will see NZ trade balance for Sep month on month. They continued and mentioned the delayed September NFP’s report is out tomorrow… “and we look for a 182k gain in payrolls (market +180k), from +169k in August…The USD will remain sensitive to the relative strength/weakness of the data, even though the Fed remains side-lined for the next few months”.

NZD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.8331, the 50 DMA is 0.8132 and the 200 DMA is 0.8183. RSI (14) reads 47.08. Supports are ascending from 0.8398, 0.8416 and 0.8430. Spot is currently 0.8463 while resistances are 0.8506, 0.8529, 0.8558, 0.8587 and 0.8643.

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Oct 21,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improves to 1 in October from 0 (September)

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Oct 22,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Construction Spending rises 0.6% in August

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - US Construction Spending grew 0.6% in August, down from the 1.4% increase registered the previous month, according to data released by the US Census Bureau. This result is above consensus of +0.4%.

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Oct 22,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rises in October against forecasts

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index grew to 1 point in October after remaining flat in September, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond informed on Tuesday. Analysts expected the indicator to stay unchanged for another month.

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Oct 22,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: New Year dollars – JP Morgan

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at JP Morgan said this month’s Washington wars raise understandable questions about enduring damage to the dollar as a reserve currency, since the political process creates non-zero default risk in an asset which should be default-free. However, they said the damage to the dollar therefore looks more cyclical than structural.

Key Quotes:

“…the damage to the dollar therefore looks more cyclical than structural in that is suppresses US rates for longer”.

“But with the US economy unlikely to slow much or for long, US rates should move towards 2.7% by year-end, which in turn limits USD downside into the new year”.

“We doubt the December 2013/January 2014 debates will be as tense as the October one, and the debt ceiling issue has been deferred effectively until July 2014 due to Treasury’s use of extraordinary measures”.

“Thus round five of the budget disputes under a divided Congress (the first three were the April 2011 near-shutdown, August 2011 debt ceiling and December 2012 fiscal cliff) could prove even less impactful on global markets than the fourth round in this October”.

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Oct 22,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD soars after BoC statement

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Loonie weakened broadly and USD/CAD soared to a fresh 1-week high after the BoC monetary policy decision.

BoC drops hawkish bias

Even though the Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rate unchanged at 1.0% it dropped reference to higher rates as it trimmed GDP projections for 2013 and 2014. USD/CAD jumped after the statement and climbed to a fresh 1-week high of 1.0379 before easing slightly.

USD/CAD technical levels

The USD/CAD is currently trading at the 1.0365 area, recording a 0.4% gain on Wednesday ahead of the BoC news conference scheduled for 16:30GMT. As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.0379 (daily high), and 1.0400 (psychological level), while supports could be found at 1.0282 (daily low) and 1.0265 (200-day SMA).

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Oct 23,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

RBA unlikely to cut – Rabobank

FXstreet.com (London) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank noted that overnight brought news of a stronger than expected rise in Australian CPI (0.7% q/q).

Key Quotes:

“This data release has strengthened our belief that the RBA are unlikely to cut rates again this cycle but this view was formed because of signs of pick up in other parts of the Australian economy, including the housing market”.

“While the RBA, like most G10 central banks, is mandated to keep CPI in check, the Bank in recent years has been forced to keep one eye on house prices and the associated outlook for household debt”.

“High levels of household debt means that the economy is more vulnerable to a hard landing when recessionary risks arise”.

“While the end of the mining investment boom in Australian impacted household’s desire to take on more debt, house prices have recently been again showing signs of life and this is likely to be a key factor in staying the hand of the RBA going forward”.

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Oct 23,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: The commentary in the October Minutes on the real economy conveyed a more upbeat tone – RBS

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at RBS noted the BoE minutes and said the MPC voted unanimously, for a fourth successive month, to maintain monetary policy settings – “as expected”.

Key Quotes:

“…The MPC continues to eye the business surveys with some caution [the PMIs have tended to over-estimate the official GDP data by almost a full percentage point in annualised growth terms over the past couple of years] but noted the signs of revival in the housing market which were 'likely to provide a fillip to both dwellings investment and consumer spending'”.

“As the Minutes implied, this might not be wholly consistent with the desire for a 'rebalancing' of demand, but there seems to be less high-minded rhetoric about this these days, either from Threadneedle St or Westminster”.

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Oct 23,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD breaks below 0.9600

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD slipped to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the American session after data showed US jobless claims fell less than anticipated last week, while August trade deficit widened in August.

US initial jobless claims fell to 350K in the week ending Oct 19 versus 380K expected. The AUD/USD broke below the 0.9600/05 support area and stretched to a 1-week low of 0.9585 so far. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9595 zone, recording a 0.2% loss on the day.

Aussie weighed by China woes

The Aussie remains under pressure Thursday despite stronger-than-expected Chinese HSBC PMI amid concerns about reports of a large write-off of bad loans at major Chinese banks and a spike in short-term rates.

AUD/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, next supports are seen at 0.9526 (Oct 17 low) and then 0.9500/0.9498 (psychological level/Oct 16 low). On the other hand, resistances could be found at 0.9670 (daily high) and 0.9700 (psychological level) ahead of 0.9712 (50% of 1.0581-0.8847).

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Oct 24,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Trade deficit rose to $38.80 billion in August

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Commerce Department has informed that the trade deficit expanded to $38.80 billion during August from $38.64 billion (revised from $39.15 billion) in the previous month (revised). The print however bettered the median at $39.50 billion.

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Oct 24,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD tug of war, can support 1.6150 hold up?

FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD has been a tug of war over the past couple of sessions, spending most of yesterday on the back foot following a large order that hit the market on the China news.

Key 1.6115/20 level held up and the reversal has swift, trading back above 1.62 on the open in Europe today. However, the dollar has risen again taking the pair lower while the trade balance has improved in August. This opens up a well defined range between (1.6115 and 1.6260) and a break of either could illicit a decent move.

GBP/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.6090, the 50 DMA is 1.5877 and the 200 DMA is 1.5478. RSI (14) reads 39.73. Supports are ascending from 1.6033, 1.6064, 1.6076 and 1.6110. Spot is currently 1.6155 while resistances are 1.6190, 1.6205, 1.6228, 1.6260 and 1.6310.

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Oct 24,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

European Council to focus on US spying allegations at the summit

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The European Council begins a two-day meeting in Brussels today and most likely the main topic of discussion will be the latest revelations in the US spying scandal, which will push the economic and social issues expected to be dealt with into the background.

Over the week both French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to Barack Obama, asking about the spying allegations. On Monday the French leader demanded explanations on the reports of the US monitoring millions of phone calls in France. On Wednesday Merkel called the US President to ask about evidence of her phone being tapped by the American intelligence.

European Union leaders, who initially planned to focus on ways of boosting employment in the area and dealing with the immigration crisis, will now most probably shift their attention to the issue of EU-wide data privacy rules.

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Oct 24,2013

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