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Don

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Posts posted by Don

  1. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    Finimej is trading this method in a different way, using a common graph and Fibo.

    I'll also try it but with the original tools. Now I am checking the average spreads on Alpari UK in order to get the picture what pairs are the best for this bucket thing.

     

    Since introducing the "flexible spreads" there is a big rumble at Alpari. I have just made an EA that checks all their 29 pair's spread (weekly min/max/avg) on a demo and a live account, then prints the table to the screen and saves it in a file daily (just in case). I'll get a more clear picture by end of Friday. But I can tell you safely: it was rather a tricky price (spread) increase than a "generous" decrease or optimization. X-(

  2. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    Please confirm my understanding of this trade setup is correct. Signal is weak according to T101 (not wide space between EU and UC), so I'm demoing this trade now to see what happens.

    As I see you have put EURUSD in the sell group and USDCHF in the buy group. But the example above shows the opposite. This is not a problem, but I think you should reverse the rules accordingly (short EU, long UC). I'm not sure, though.

  3. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    Okay, thanks birt.

    I have modified my little EA. Now it opens a trade on EURUSD/USDCHF with the appropriate lotsizes, same direction (let's say buy). When it reaches 2.0 dollars of profit, then a trailing stop function kicks in. If the fallback in profits reaches the 40% of the current trailing stop level (2.0 dollars), then it closes the trade. If the profit grows further, then it increases the trailing stop level further.

    After it closed the positions, it reopens them in the opposite direction and the game continues so on and so on. Let's see what happens with my demo dollars. ;))

     

    OK, it would be more elegant if the direction would be dictated by the correlation indi, but I did not investigated that one so deeply.

     

    Edit: I had to restart the EA. The first conclusion is that it does not work so good in the asian session. However there is an overall "flatness" in volume in the asian period, yet the EURUSD moved far more times than the completely dead USDCHF. Another effect was the widened spread of both pairs. These two things are caused frequent off-hedge situations and produced no profitable periods. Now I have closed the positions and the EA is opened two new one in the opposite direction, as planned.

     

    Anybody knows a good currency strength meter? Or at least the method how to calculate strength of each currencies (NOT pairs)? I think this would help here, too.

  4. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    Again: big_price / small_price * base_lotsize = lotsize_for_small_priced_pair

     

    Imo, that's wrong. The report between EURAUD and AUDCHF is expressed by none other than EURCHF, which is where you should get the lot sizes from.

    We have the following relationship:

    EURAUD * AUDCHF = EURCHF

    Putting the current values into it:

    1.6990 * 0.8916 = 1.5148

     

    So, if I want to get the correct lotsizes for both hedged pairs, then I have to do the following:

     

    Example: 1st pair: EURUSD, 2nd pair: USDCHF, "derived" pair: EURCHF

     

    Prices at the moment of calculation:

    EURUSD: 1.45840

    USDCHF: 1.03830

    EURCHF: 1.51437

     

    The base lotsize is: 1.0

     

    Lotsize for the EURUSD pair:

    1.51437 / 1.45840 = 1.03837

    1.0 lot X 1.03837 = ~ 1.04 lot

     

    Lotsize for the USDCHF pair:

    1.51437 / 1.03830 = 1.45850

    1.0 lot X 1.45850 = ~ 1.46 lot

     

    BTW we also can say this:

    EURUSD lotsize is: base_lotsize X USDCHF price

    USDCHF lotsize is: base_lotsize X EURUSD price

     

    Now, is that okay above?

  5. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    Both of you, matka and birt, want to prove to me that trading EURUSD/USDCHF is actually like trading EURCHF. It's not necessary. Yes, that's true, I understand that, quite simple, no problem.

    But a temporary off-hedge situation at trading two correlated pairs draws less down than a breakout to the totally opposite direction on a single pair. That's why I feel hedge-trading safer, smoother. Is it a false sense of safety?

     

    By trading one pair only you can also avoid differences in time of opening/closing trades because of requotes and time of tick differences

    The positions can be opened by an EA with only 1-2 ticks difference. And since these pairs are never perfectly correlated, it's not a big problem if the two opened positions are slipping a bit here and there, I guess.

  6. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    I have checked out the Correlation indi.

    http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/5099/correlation.gif

    It looks like a slow+fast moving average indi WITHOUT the lag. Is it?

    We should set up limit orders around the crosses (I have marked them with a yellow circle). If the correlation is at the zero point then we just set up those pending orders and wait. This way we could reduce DD even more.

     

    (I just want to make it clear that I'm not an mql guru, I'm just using my 20 years programming experience when I messing with mql. :) So, if someone can make it, then don't wait for me, because maybe I'll fail.)

  7. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    I understand birt's reasoning when he writes it's like if we were trading EURCHF alone. Yes, it's LIKE. But I have a feeling that this kind of hedge trading is in a more calm range, no big breakouts etc. Of course we must pay for this "extra service" by paying the double spread and swap (however, if we are buying these pairs, WE get the more swap).

     

    Ok, you know what? I'll put on my little EA again on both EURUSD and USDCHF, but this time I'll attach it on EURCHF, too. If birt is right, then both results (EU/UC and EC) should show the same drawdown and profit.

     

    But if I'm right, then EC will be full of "jumps" (or at least bigger swings) and EU/UC trading will have a more "ironed out" shape.

  8. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    If we are using improper lotsizes, then it's like if we were causing an "artifical divergence". Am I right on this? A very little, non-tradeable natural divergence could be "magnified" by intentionally improper lotsizes. We just have to find out which pair's lotsize must be "mussed" and by what amount to get a positive result within a reasonable time. Like if WE were tell the prices... ;))

    Am I on something or am I wrong again? :-?

  9. Re: T101 Busket Trading Strategy (T101 BTS)

     

    Here is a separate thread for Orest's indicator on FF: ......./showthread.php?t=112522

     

    Another indicator made based on T101, this time an "external" one (also on FF): ......./showthread.php?t=110309

     

    From a bit of distance, but this one is also following T101 (on FF): ......./showthread.php?t=116892

     

    Have a nice reading everyone! :)

  10. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    Wow! Thanks for the codes Starting and cbot!

     

    Last night I have started an EURAUD/AUDCHF, but this time with balanced lots. EURAUD was 0.10 and AUDCHF was 0.19 . This balanced out the difference in prices of the both pairs.

    However it was a mistake, too, since this way the pair which brought the negative swap is went by almost the doubled lots! So my swap-loss on that pair was also almost doubled. +3.17 swap against the -4.09 . It's a loss.

    I don't know, but it seems you have to decide if you want to go after the scalping thing or the swap thing.

     

    Another thing is that these pairs (EURAUD/AUDCHF) are not so scalpable. The biggest loss was -37.78 and the biggest "profit" was -4.47 so far. Maybe it still figths with the spread? It seems it can't get out of the negative territory.

     

    Btw I have used this formula for calculating the lotsize for the AUDCHF pair:

     

    I have used the "standard" lotsize (0.1) for the pair which has the bigger price. Let's say it's 1.65432 .

    The other pair has 0.87654 price. It seems if I want to get the same dollar amount then I have to raise the lotsize for this pair.

    1.65432 / 0.87654 * 0.1 = 0.1887 = ~ 0.19 lot for the pair with the smaller price.

     

    Again: big_price / small_price * base_lotsize = lotsize_for_small_priced_pair

     

    However, I have reached nice results at the EURUSD/USDCHF test when I left the lotsizes alone and egal. Was it pure luck?

  11. Re: T101 Busket Trading Strategy (T101 BTS)

     

    Thanks Don for introducing me to the T101 Busket Trading Strategy (T101 BTS)...

    Did I ? :)

     

    However, it's a nice coincidence that I have just finished reading the original thread on FF. Gosh, more than 2500 posts! But the system makes sense for sure.

    In "normal" trading you are just tickling a very little part of the whole thing (you're trading a pair or two or three). But with this strategy you're on the whole market. These many pairs are balancing each other. You have just take care of the timing only. If you start the procedure at the right time (and direction) then you'll earn a tons of pips. I like it very much! I've download a tons of stuff regarding this, but the main thing is in the first post of this thread.

    There is no need for hordes of indicators, no need for timeframes, no need for graph either. Just watching the pairs moving between their slots and when it is time, you just sell or buy them ALL according to the rules. Did I mention I'm loving it? :D

  12. Re: Hedge Trading #1 - EUR & CHF

     

    EURUSD / USDCHF is the most stable hedge pairs on Forex. Not failsafe, however. So, you don't want just put the indicator or EA on "ANY" other pairs. This technique works best with these two pairs only. Of course, there are other hedgeable pairs, but these two are the most stable.

     

    Yesterday I have ran a little 24 hours test to show this hedge-thing to someone, especially the swap-earning part.

    I have put together a little EA that opened two buy positions at once with 0.1 lot (on both pairs, I did not bother with multiply the one by 1.5). The EA was ran and continuously registered the biggest loss and biggest win during the test period. The biggest "loss" (or rather drawdown) was -15.52 dollars and the biggest profit was 28.63 dollars. There were negative and positive periods continuously during the test.

    The most noticeable and positive thing was what I call "calmness". I did not closed the pairs at profit, since I wanted to run the whole thing for 24 hours. But there was quite a few occassions where I could stop the thing with a nice profit. 2, 5, 8, 15, even 20, 25 dollars could be earned many times. And the whole thing ran without the stress and nail biting of "normal" scalping. I say with 0.1 lot you can earn 3-4 times 2-20 dollars a day with this. Or even more. Finally I have closed the test positions with a nice +15.74 dollars profit (this was not the aim, however).

     

    Of course, if you keep the BUY positions overnight then you also earn swap, too. In my case the USDCHF earned 0.02 and the EURUSD earned 0.01 pips.

     

    However, if you're after swap, then there are more suitable pairs.

    For example (and this is valid for Alpari UK, since I don't know about the others) if you're SELLing EURAUD then you could earn +1.160 pips of swap. You can hedge this pair with SELLing AUDCHF. In this case you'll have to pay -0.750 as swap, but the balance is 1160-750 = +0.410! (Remember, I have earned 0.03 overall with EURUSD/USDCHF)

     

    Another example for earning the swap is SELLing EURNZD (+1.170) and SELLing NZDUSD (-0.440). The balance will be +0.730 . However, this is not a perfect hedge, you have to watch out more often on these.

     

    Another issue is the spread. If you're after swap, then you have to keep it longer in order to avoid your swap profits being eaten up by the spread (x2).

     

    I'll try this tonight, anyway. :)

    And I'm trying to write an EA for this technique (hedge-scalping) because it looks very promising. I'm also thinking on some newsfiltering to avoid negative off-hedge situations. I guess the news can hurt badly for this way of trading.

  13. Re: Megadroid Pro

     

    Hi jmwaraujo,

     

    MegadroidPro_v101ee_bbr_v11

     

    Aggressive = TRUE,

    GmtOffset = 0,

    AutoLocalGmtOffset = True,

    AutoServerGmtOffset = True,

    LotSize = 0.1,

    RiskLevel = 0.4,

    RecoveryMode = FALSE,

    RishSharingEnable = TRUE,

    MaxSpread = 0 (Default)

     

    GBPUSD - 4

    GBPCHF - 4

    USDCAD - 2

    EURGBP - 3

    USDCHF - 4

     

    I will remove the least profitable 2 pairs on next next week and will also decrease risk to 0.3 that time. This means a trading with the most profitable pairs using a bit bigger lotsizes along with a decreased overall risk.

     

    Do you think the new Alpari UK spreads are affecting MD quite a lot (ie. trading less and having small profits)?

    Yes, I think so. That's why I'd like to get answer to my MaxSpread question. Should I tamper with it or even disable it or not? Did anybody tried to change it on live account?

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