forexample

Thanks Rex I suppose this is because I had aggressive on

I hit USDJPY stop with aggressive FALSE.

07.07.2010 21:29 07.08.2010 02:05 USDJPY Sell 0.06 87.84600 87.03800 87.53800 87.84600 -30.8 -1848.00

07.07.2010 23:39 07.07.2010 23:44 EURJPY Buy 0.05 109.30500 111.24300 110.74300 110.86300 12.0 600.00

07.07.2010 22:19 07.07.2010 23:02 EURGBP Sell 0.05 0.83648 0.82744 0.83244 0.83194 5.0 333.00

dinj, noziggity, theozaki and other contributors here, thank you for one of the most complete bots ever! excellent work here. I was a MD user from the start but it just trades so infrequently I was over it. I have added an Alpari UK demo on my VPS using 1.01ee and noziggity's/theozaki's setup, it is linked to my myfxbook account (same user name as here).

Thanks again,

forexample

There are an abundance of materials and webpages devoted to this. A lot of the turtles still run trading groups but not all of them have been profitable and it has been stated that many of them are using a new, better set of rules.

I had given up on the idea that any mechanical system can be profitable but this does prove otherwise even if not for an extended period of time.

I found a good resource for backtesting on someones blog - is it ok to post the link here? It is a good help. I am using fxdd's data from konorti's post on the first page.

I am using Alpari's MT4, I tried just backscrolling M1 data but could only get to Feb of this year frustratingly. I wish I had Alpari's M1 data as they used to upload on their site but they are holding out on us.

Interestingly, since FXDD doesn't go lower than 1.0 lots on the data I have, I have to test with 1.0 lots or bigger or the EAs won't work. I guess a lot of info is held in this historical data.

could have been worse, more a turnaround and doublestep than a blame game:

Thank you for your email and your comments, which were in no way taken as personal accusations.

 

I would like to address some of the points that you raised.

 

Firstly, we are aware of the Tools => Options => Charts max bars in history and we advise clients to use this when they report that there is no or insufficient data on their results.

 

With regards to the charts coming from direct feed, this is in no way incorrect or misleading information; the charts do run on our live feed, but when historical data is downloaded, it overrides our live feed up to the latest date on the download. After than point the data on the charts will come from the live feed again, unless another download is done.

 

Perhaps I did not make myself clear enough, making you think that the data on the charts comes from the direct feed even when downloading historical data, so apologies if my explanation was in any way confusing.

 

Finally, we do warn the customers that they are downloading data from MetaQuotes, and that the downloaded history data can differ from the data stored on the trade server; in no way we try to mislead or provide inaccurate information:

 

Once again, thank you for your comments/feedback.

 

Please do not hesitate to contact us should you require further assistance.

 

Kind Regards

 

I live in Japan, where companies and/or individuals take full responsibility for any issues. Leaders and Executives step down (they even commit suicide at times!) if their company of any of their workers commit atrocities rather than blame it on someone else. I thought I was past all these broker issues a long time ago and was happy in my blissful ignorance (another brick in the wall). Anyway, if anyone cares to see how Alpari UK treats a customer with a live account, and I am not betting either way that they will blame me/my platform or take responsibility (well I have my opinion based on past issues but I will spare judgement), here is the mail I sent support today:

Firstly, I am not accusing you personally of any intent to mislead the customer. I assume that the issue at hand stems from poor teaching at a higher level and I ask you to question your advisors in more detail on this.

 

I did as you said and reinstalled a fresh platform. The charts were fine. After re-downloading history data from Metaquotes the charts went back to having a large gap as can be seen here:

 

http://i43.tinypic.com/5ds712.gif

 

If I then deleted all history and refreshed the chart it went back to normal. It is not my data or platform etc that is corrupt, it is the Metaquotes data as can be seen here (I did this multiple times to be sure; and this is just one example of large holes):

 

http://i43.tinypic.com/200biwo.jpg

 

So firstly, for anyone experiencing the same issue, please just advise them to delete all history and refresh chats, a fresh install is not necessary.

 

Also, for your records, if you wish to advise customers how to get good quality data for backtesting, they simply have to open their live feed, start with a Monthly chart and work down to M1 chart, allow 4,000,000 bars in history in Options (if they wish to test back to 2001), and scroll back in time to however far they need data. This takes a long time but the data is of good quality. It took me a while playing with the platform to realise this, but it is not so difficult to work out and it is something support should be aware of.

 

While I understand that downloaded history is not accurate, your statement that charts come from direct feed is incorrect and misleading. As soon as history is downloaded from Metaquotes, charts run off this feed, and I have proven this multiple times. Whoever told you otherwise is either ill-advised or directly misleading customers. I of course take the position that they are merely ill-advised and am not accusing anyone of anything, however I do ask you to do more research to help customers make advised decisions. As a long-term technical trader with a large account at Oanda I have been testing Alpari and a number of other MT4 brokers with multiple small accounts with the intent of funding a pro account for EA trading as I am also a software developer, but wish to find a broker that treats the little guy as well as I am treated at Oanda. Things like this make me question whether Alpari will be my broker of choice. A lot of people use MT4 to trade EAs as well as live accounts and once they download data from Metaquotes their live data is corrupt and you should make customers aware of this.

 

I hope you take this mail not as an offensive attack but as an exposition for facts, and I hope my comments help you better support customers with the same issue in the future, as I know you value your clients’ opinions and strive to always offer better services.

 

Best Regards,

Use "Page Up" to scroll back as far as you can with TF you are testing include 1 min. This way you get Broker data, not metaquotes, which can have missing data.

Last night after having issues with downloaded data not compiling M5, M30 etc I had this idea and spent an hour or two scrolling back to the start of 2006 on M1, retested and its working fine now from what I can see. Good advice though, thanks given!

I have backtested for the last two years and thought I was only getting "90%" accuracy, what a joke that was!

The reason I am asking was based on a bigger issue that I have just realised. I have a live account with Alpari UK and I have been using the same platform for backtesting and for live trading. I recently re-downloaded the historical data from the history center (EU) and my charts ended up with a 13 day gap in March. Support told me my platform was "corrupt" and to try a fresh install. I did this, and the chart was fine, UNTIL i downloaded history again and the same gap appeared (candle chart attached). You can see inside the history center how much data is missing (picture attached). While I accept that historical data is not trustworthy, I am shocked that as soon as data is downloaded charts use this feed.

http://i43.tinypic.com/5ds712.gif

This is completely different from what support informed me, and also disturbing in the face that they disclaim how the data is not true Alpari data and can't be used in disputes. I trade daily technicals and gaps like this throw off the whole charts - I first noticed because my TLs looked so different from one day to the next (after the gap appeared).

I am now using two platforms, one for backtesting and one for live trading.

http://i43.tinypic.com/200biwo.jpg

Sorry to rehash an old topic but every search I do just results in pages of EAs.

I am currently testing a few EAs from this site. I use Alpari's MT4 and so had downloaded Metaquotes data at end of Feb. At the end of March I redownloaded so I could test to end of March and checked data by retesting same as before (to end of Feb) and I got very different results - some trades completely missed, some different trades etc. I deleted historical data, redownloaded and got diff results again! It seems that the data is different every time and that there are lots of holes. This is not for a scalper either so not so fiddly. It is giving me a headache.

I know Birt's thread for testing at 99% but for first run of tests I'm happy with 90%, but I would like to have reliable data. Does anyone have a good source? I hope in the beginning for EURUSD, 2001-present.

As an aside, how to keep a set spread? I remember a while back someone's advice was to open a demo, ge tthe feed, then delete the demo and dont re-login but if I do this backtester just doesn't work.

Mad kudos for anything that works and is accurate!

Thanks in advance,

FE

Tom always sells more than 300 copies, if you remember the promotion of forex confidante he said the same, he was only gonna sell to the first 300 customers....and then durring the promotion of his latest work fibonacci strike he goes on to say " Hi, I am tom strignano...some of you might remember me as the author of forex confidante which went on to sell THOUSANS AND THOUSANDS of copies...". Jeez he (Tom) sure does lose sight of those limited offer claims ( only 300 copies of Forex confidante), when he feels a bit boastful. According to me,99 percent of all internet promoted methods work well when you annalyze in hindsight, however when you trade them on live market....you lose most of the times even when you follow the rules to the T...cos they only show trade examples for periods where the system did work. The worst of the lot is Bill Paulos, the only way you can lose money faster is by flushing it down the toilet

The only good thing is that you get to learn a bit or two with each trading system :D , yep so my kudos to anyone who is willing to share the fibonacci strike, will certainly be appreciated by the forrum members

This made me laugh - FapTurbo said the same BS, we're only selling 500 or whatever the BS it was, and in their latest mailout they're boasting how they've sold 55,000 copies! How dumb do they think we are. LONG LIVE INDO-INVESTASI!!!

Bump..some of the backtests here look good, would be interested to try this on a demo forward test...

http://www.forexgateway.net/expertadvisors.asp

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

We do wait for it, but the problem is that price closes above/below (usually more than 4-10 pips), makes a new S/R level or repaints the previous one. Either way, we get stopped out too often. I considered trend channels, but they repaint too. I just think we're running up against the same old question: is it a top or a bottom?

Hmm...I have watched the barry's/fractals, one cannot be valid until it is a confirmed swing. If it paints before the swing is confirmed, that is a problem. I just watched fractals on the 1 minute though, they only paint when confirmed. Dunno about Barry's.

I do not trade tops or bottoms anymore, just follow long-term trends reentering on retraces and watch out for SR levels and try to only lose on the trend change. Only look at charts once a day. Very boring. Not there yet though, but it suits me. So the same old question doesn't apply, but I do get what you mean. I am revisiting my old notes on SR breakouts and may have something to share one day but for now don't have any bright ideas.

Good luck with the project,

FE

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

No matter what we try, the fake S/R breaks seem to kill us. Maybe I'll try a CCI with it to see if we can identify which way the price will turn.

How about waiting for a confirmed break ie a candle close above level then enter if a good position is found before price hits target?

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

These brokers continuously change price action to screw up all systems. They have the money to do this research all the time. Let's cross our fingers....

stovedude, brokers do not control PA, buyers and sellers do. The market is random at small time frames, it's not like there is a system that works until the brokers find it and change PA to stop that system working. That is crazy thinking. Buyers and sellers control price, occasionally brokers/floor traders clear stops but that is all they are doing unless they have been instructed to keep price above/below a certain level for a certain close to influence technicals. Otherwise moves are made by the people with money - banks, govts, hedge funds etc, depending on the current climate, and everyone rides their backs or gets killed in the stampede. This must be accepted before moving to a long-term profitable sphere IMHO. There is no "solution" that works regardless - trading is discretionary and the only holy grail is between your head - you obviously have intelligence and perseverance, I hope you're not barking up the wrong tree.

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

Most of the bugs are ironed out now, except that the Fib SL code is a bit wonky. There's an option in the EA to use a fib level for SL. At the moment it is at 138, but can be changed to any other fib level depending on trade direction. It's a bit bugged and placing SL on the wrong fib at the moment

There's also an issue of buy trades occuring when SR break hasn't broken. I assume this has to do with the Ask price clipping over the line, but the Bid price not doing so.

 

Even still, drawdown is huge (as in my own trading ideas) - but most of the time trades are hitting TP. Perhaps it would be easier to trade on the retracement levels after the initial break, rather than the break itself? Just an idea anyway. I will release some tests later on.

 

So far, the EA is Asskicker, and not Kickass. Perhaps I will release it anyway, and you guys can all try optimizing the settings (Momentum, Kicker, and SL settings should prove most interesting to optimize).

Good work Rio. I also used the daily candle/weekly candle fibbing thing for a while. If that could be coded and backtested there is a world of opportunity waiting I think, though let's save that for once the HarshRioEA is bugged out.

Your idea to enter only on retraces after the conditions for a trade is good as it will provide much better RR. I guess it all depends on whether most trades rush straight to TP after breaking SR or they tend to retrace and backtests would help work out which level is best to enter at - if that could be coded to be a fib level as well it would be amazing.

Jealous of your coding skills!

FE

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

Agree the Barry's are not perfect but for plotting swing highs and lows they are fine and they do not repaint, they aren't plotted till a swing is confirmed. They are not true SR as such but they do serve a purpose for fib drawing.

Harsh, I hope someone is out there who can make the EA as you wish it. Seems you are finding out is hard to get an EA coded exactly as you want it for free. I have another syustem I want coded but I will wait till I can pay for it as when coders are working for free they like to put their own twist to things.

Rio, if you have followed Skunny's system you should know by now a fractal SR break to fib extension is NOT a holy grail and NOT ALL targets are hit. Lots of targets are, they are the pips we need to grab. Lots don't - they are the trades we need to protect ourselves from. Also, using fixed pips eg 3 pips past the post for entries will limit the time frames and range sizes your EA will work on - consider percentages as I addressed in another post.

Good work all,

FE

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

Hey Rio,

Yes I agree stop is a necessity. I believe as you do it will get there eventually but sometimes it seems like the toy analogy is the opposite - the market plays with the toys making trades hit targets then one opens but the market loses focus and puts down the "hit TP" toy and the trade drifts off in the other direction...

Thats is why I believe an EA that allows for TP and SL to be set by the user will hopefully let us see what works better for different time-frames. M15 seems great though some targets are very small, but everything can be set using orders so it shouldn't be too much of an issue and it seems target hit faster than on M30.

I think the relevant stops that could be tested are (for a long trade based on a break of resistance at 100) -38.2, 0, 38.2, 50, 61.8.

TPs 138.2, 161.8.

If the stop was -38.2 then the EA could open a trade at the opposite end if price reverses, one of them will win eventually and will help the loss a little.

If the stops are anything else then what to do on a price reversal needs work.

I have not followed a thread of this sort for quite some time but will do so with this one and hope my ideas can help. Thank you for all the time you put in here and again to harsh for starting this.

With regards to your last observations, in a lot of cases a break may go the wrong way for the immediate future (ie the EU daily case you posted) so limiting the orders to a pre-defined direction may be a hindrance as inside as well as outside that range there could be a lot of shorts that would hit target - I hope this could be a user-defined option for back and forward testing to analyse.

Best Regards,

FE :)>-

-- 06 Mar 2010, 14:17 --

GU M15 last 26 hoursish. TP at 138.2, SL at -38.2, with a trade opened in the other direction with same TP and SL if price reverses.

This means the following two situations are possible (not including the room for error on SR and spread):

A. A direct hit has a risk of 138.2 and a reward of 38.2. 2% risk = 0.55% gain.

B. 1 stop, 1 win has one -2% loss with a 0.55% win = -1.45% loss.

1st setup: B

2nd setup: A (missed by 1 pip but we would allow for this)

3rd setup: B

4th setup: B

5th setup: A

6th setup: A

7th setup: A

8th setup: A

9th setup: A

10th setup: A

11th setup: trade opened currently 10 pips DD

12th setup: A

13th setup: A

14th setup: fractal forms after target hit - no trade in real time

15th setup: still within range - no trade opened yet.

9 A's = 4.95%, 3 B's = 4.35. Not a good RR means not a lot of profit.

http://i50.tinypic.com/1gk3zt.gif

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

hi samk,

I believe what I was doing and posted here and what Rio is doing are in essence one and the same. Rio uses Barry's Support and Resistance, I use fractals, they are the same just different look. From what I understood there were no indicators involved really although harsh included them originally. My system there are basically zero - the SR from the fractals (swing highs and lows) and fib percentages which are just extensions of price.

If the system that Rio is developing is different from what I offer and/or is not offered free to members lets go from there and I will start a new thread...there is a lot more to it than what I posted above.

If what I offered helps Rio with the EA he is creating and he offers it here for forward-testing there will be no need.

Patience is important in forex. The market doesn't go away. We'll get there...as will harsh and Rio with their generosity here.

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

Sorry to butt in at this point but this system is so similar to the one I was working on back a couple of years that its got me re-hooked. I hope my comments are seen as constructive and help in the project overall. I always knew this system could deliver BUT it was too time-consuming manually having to be in front of charts and I put it in the archives for later and forgot about it. If this can be coded there is a lot of potential. Great work harsh and Rio!

All comments made below come from my time experimenting with Skunny's system (which I no longer use for manual trading and have not done for two years) but I believe what I was doing and what is being done here are so similar that my comments are warrantable and worth considering - I put a lot of time into manual testing.

On H4, with TP of 138.2ish and stop of 61.8ish, I saw incredible gains but always wanted to test this on multiple timeframes.

Regarding Entries

There were two schools - 1 entered on a PIERCE of the SR line (ie the candle did not need to close above/below SR, price just had to move out of the range.

The other only entered after a candle of whatever time-frame you are trading closed above/below SR and then price came back to your entry point BEFORE hitting TP.

No-one decided how many pips above/below if any were needed to qualify a signal. Personally I worked with percentages. I saw TPs of 600 pips hit almost to the pip with this system, in this case 3 pips hardly seems significant. This was on H4, but the more options the EA has the more we will be able to find good settings by running backtests not visually watching thousands of charts.

Recommendations

Could the options "enter on SR pierce" OR "enter on SR break" be included?

Setting the entry a set number of pips above or below limits the flexibility of the EA as 3 pips may be huge on one TF/range and miniscule on another. Why not make this adjustable AND a figure related to the fib percentages eg Entry = "2" would mean price had to move 2% above/below range for an entry to trigger.

Regarding TPs

Same point as above. I know you have mentioned 138.2 and 161.8 BUT these need to include spread and perhaps a bit for the "pip-gods" - setting the TP a set number of pips above or below 138.2/-138.2 limits the flexibility of the EA as this figure may be huge on one TF/range and miniscule on another.

Recommendations

Why not make this adjustable AND a figure related to the fib percentages eg TP = "138.2" would mean price hit to move to the 38.2% extension above/below range to hit TP.

Spread could be withdrawn from/added to this figure automatically OR we could fit it in there manually by changing TP to 136 for example - I like the first option with a "automatically allow for spread" option but it depends on the coder.

Regarding Stops

Lets say a long trade breaks support at 100 and our TP is 138.2. The way that Skunny taught was that the stop should be at the point where the original signal was no longer valid and you are prepared to enter a trade in the opposite direction. In this case that would be a few pips lower than 0 and that range would be considered "dead" OR a new trade would be opened in the opposite direction.

However I worked with multiple variations of stops and the opposite range was not what proved to be most profitable over the 1 1/2 years I tested. Who knows which strategy is best. Visually it seems that once a range doesn't work, it can piss around back and forth for a while. I manually backtested a whole lot of settings but manual optimisation is a real pain in the @$$.

Recommendation

EA should have a SL that can be set. Why not make this adjustable AND a figure related to the fib percentages eg SL = "-38.2" would mean price hit to move to the opposite 38.2% extension to hit SL.

Regarding Trade Management

As each range is different lot size needs to be calculated automatically by the EA depending on what the stop is set at and what risk the trader accepts - MM is an absolute necessity.

Rio your idea to open two trades, one aiming for 138.2 and one for 161.8 or smaller profit target is great. This could be an "advanced strategy TRUE/FALSE" option and preferably the options for this could be editable - TP, SL, and BE - eg "TP 160", "SL 61.8", "BE at 110 after price hits 135".

Personally I like Fractals, the Barry's colors I find off-putting, but this is only important for manual trading.

What to do when SL is hit? Ignore that range? Double-up? Keep reentering until TP is hit? Have mutiple management options that can be chosen eg "Trade Management = System 1"?

Please take all comments as constructive and I applaud the hard work being done here.

Regards,

FE :)>-

-- 06 Mar 2010, 12:28 --

Here is an example chart, EU as that's what has been posted here, M15, last 24 hoursish. I know its hard to see but if you understand what I mean and the system as harsh described you will get the idea. Some of these TPs hit within 1 pip as Rio was amazed at.

There was a time I thought about having this coded and trying to sell it for cash but as my time in the forex world lengthens I have come to understand the importance of generosity if we are to be both profitable AND ethical and hope that this contribution helps. Also, I want to be one of those who "does", not one who sells/teaches but "doesn't" if you get my drift.

Time-frame is difficult - M15 still has a lot of small ranges - so a "do not trade range smaller than X" function may be necessary. Manually the small ranges are stressful but hopefully the EA can deal with them.

None of the following trades went beyond the other SR line which is what I have used in this case for the results - not the best RR but the strike rate makes up for it.

1st setup - winner.

2nd setup - winner.

3rd setup - winner.

4th setup - winner.

5th setup - winner.

7th setup - winner.

8th setup - winner.

9th setup - winner.

10th setup - winner.

11th setup - open with TP of 1.3655.

12th setup - hasn't broken range.

13th setup - hasn't broken range.

14th setup - winner.

15th setup - winner.

16th setup - winner.

17th setup - hasn't broken range.

18th setup - hasn't broken range.

So at 2% per trade we would be up 4.584% (not including spread and assuming entry at 0 and TP at 138.2) with 4 orders and one open trade currently in small profit. Not a bad first day. I would like to see this though with tightening stops all the way up to the 61.8 as the decreasing RR and hence increasing profit per trade makes a big difference - it is working out what provides the most efficient edge over time that is important

Please forgive the mammoth post ^:)^

http://i47.tinypic.com/14alpx2.gif