Date: 4th September 2025.
Weak US Employment Data And The Upcoming NFP.
The US Dollar remains the day’s best-performing currency; however, significant risks remain as employment data continues to fall. The US JOLTS Job Openings fell from 7.36 million to 7.18 million. The figure is significantly lower than the previous month and analysts’ expectations. Are investors expecting the US Dollar to fall?
The court decision that US tariffs are not legal continues to be a big factor for the US Dollar. President Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to review and overturn a federal appeals court decision that struck down his April 2025 trade tariffs, which ranged from 10% to 50% on imports. The lower court ruled the tariffs unlawful, saying they exceeded the powers granted to the presidency under a 1977 law. The development is supporting the US Dollar in the short-term; however, economists advise that this will not be enough for the Dollar to maintain its momentum.
For this reason, the worrying picture which is developing within the employment sector is not having its traditional impact. However, investors note that tomorrow’s NFP data can have a significant impact. Today’s JOLTS Job Openings is known as a lagging indicator, but the fact that the figure has fallen to the lowest since March 2021 would not provide economists with confidence. In addition to this, the US also saw its Weekly Unemployment Claims rise to 237,000, higher than the previous month and projections.
Economists expect tomorrow’s Unemployment Rate to rise to 4.3% and for the NFP Change to add 75,000 jobs. If the figures do not beat projections, the US Dollar may struggle to maintain its value, similar to today.
The US Dollar is currently the best-performing currency of the day, while the worst-performing currencies are the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen. Some currency pairs, such as the USDJPY, are trading at a key resistance level, as is the US Dollar Index. For this reason, traders should be cautious if tomorrow’s NFP data prompts recession fears and more frequent interest rate cuts.
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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
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