[b]Date: 09th June 2025.[/b]
[b]Switzerland Witness Deflation For First Time 4-Years![/b]
The Swiss Franc is the second best-performing currency of 2025, however, economists advise the Swiss will witness deflation. The country has experienced deflation in the past and even negative interest rates. The Euro, on the other hand, is the best performing of the year, so can the currency take advantage of the deflationary conditions?
Switzerland Inflation And the Swiss Franc
Switzerland’s latest Inflation figures fall below 0.00% for the first time since March 2021. Between February 2020 to March 2021, the country saw deflation conditions reaching a low of 1.3%. During the period of deflation, the Swiss Franc fell 4.10% against the Euro and the Swiss National Bank fell to 0.75%.
So far in 2025, the price of the Swiss Franc Index has risen 8.69% mainly benefiting from the market’s risk appetite taking a sharp decline. In addition to this, investors look to mitigate risk away from the US Dollar due to the rising trade deficit. However, over the past month the VIX, one of the market’s main indications of risk, has fallen 20%. In addition to this, the Federal Reserve surprisingly remains reluctant to cut interest rates and follow the market’s trend. Therefore, investors are questioning if the price of the Swiss Franc is at a good level to witness a change in trend. According to economists, this is possible if inflation continues to decline.
Swiss consumer prices fell 0.1% year-on-year in May 2025, matching forecasts after flat growth in April. The drop was led by sharper declines in transport (-3.7%), food and beverages (-0.3%), and healthcare (-0.2%). Prices also fell for household goods, clothing, and recreation. In contrast, housing, energy, and hospitality costs rose at a slower pace, while communication inflation held steady at 1.0%.
The European Central Bank Takes a Hawkish Tone!
A batch of European economic data was released last week, showing that EU GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, beating the expected 0.3%. Year-on-year, GDP rose by 1.5%, exceeding the 1.2% forecast.
However, analysts caution that these figures do not yet reflect the effects of recent US export tariffs, which could lead to a notable downturn in upcoming periods.
European Central Bank President Mrs Lagarde told journalists that the decision to cut interest rates was supported by almost all members, with only one dissenting. She highlighted that the regulator is now in a good position and views its interest rates as neutral. This suggests a possible pause in July unless unexpected economic developments arise. Goldman Sachs advises the ECB may now pause for up to 5 months, particularly if the economic growth continues.
Currently, the Euro is the best-performing currency due to being the investor's first option to mitigate risk away from the US Dollar. In addition to this, European shareholders in US equities are now starting to hedge the risk of a weakening US Dollar which can raise gains from stock growth. Lastly, investors are increasing their exposure to the Euro due to its expansionary fiscal policy. An expansionary fiscal policy has not been seen in the EU for over a decade, other than spending related to COVID. The Euro Index is trading 9.48% higher in 2025.
EURCHF - Technical Analysis
The EURCHF has taken a dip during this morning’s Asian and European Sessions. However, in the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the exchange rate remains above the 75-period Moving Average. On the 3-Minute timeframe, the 200-Period Moving Average is currently at 0.93702. If the price rises above this level, buy signals potentially can again materialise.
EURCHF 30-Minutes
Key Takeaway Points:
Despite rising 8.69% in 2025, the Swiss Franc faces deflation risks as inflation fell –0.1% YoY in May.
The Euro is the top performer, up 9.48%, boosted by fiscal expansion, USD hedging, and strong economic data.
The ECB cut rates but signalled a neutral stance, hinting at a pause in July unless conditions change.
EURCHF holds above major moving averages; a break above 0.93702 may trigger fresh buy signals.
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[b]Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets[/b]
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