[b]Date: 20th June 2025.[/b]
[b]The BoE’s Deputy Governor Surprisingly Votes For Rate Cut![/b]
The Great British Pound took advantage of the US bank holiday 0.26% in total on Thursday. The GBP was also one of the best-performing currencies of the Asian Session rising against all currencies. However, the outlook in the short term is quickly changing as the UK continues to release more negative economic data.
GBPUSD 3-Minute Chart
Bank of England
A positive release from earlier in the week was the UK inflation rate which read 3.4%, higher than previous expectations (3.3%). However, regardless of the higher inflation reading, the Monetary Policy Committee took a dovish approach. The Bank of England did decide to keep interest rates unchanged, however, 3 members of the committee voted to cut interest rates.
In May 2025, the Bank of England cut its official bank rate from 4.5% to 4.25%. Yesterday, economists were expecting only 2 members to vote for an interest rate cut. Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra are the two most dovish members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Economists were expecting the two to vote for another interest rate cut. However, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden also joined the 2 in voting for an interest rate cut. This is considered largely dovish regardless of the decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
UK Economic Data
One of the reasons the Deputy Governor Mr Ramsden chose to cut interest rates instead of a pause was weakening economic data and employment. This morning the UK made public its Retail Sales figures which fell -2.7%, the weakest release in 18 months. The average retail sales figure for the UK in 2025 so far has been +0.8%. Economists were expecting a decline of 0.5%, however, the release of -2.7% is considerably lower than both expectations and the average so far.
Another concern is also the employment sector. The UK’s unemployment claims rose to 1.735 million which is higher than the previous month. The unemployment claims in the previous month were 1.702 million while the UK’s Salary Index has also fallen.
The Bank of England governor did not hold a press conference after the rate announcement. However, the governor is due to speak on the 24th and 26th where investors will for sure request guidance on the future path of interest rates. The UK will also release its Purchasing Managers’ Index on Monday at 08:45 GMT+0.
GBPUSD - Technical Analysis
The price of the Cable was one of the best-performing currencies during this morning’s Asian Session. However, the price fell 0.25% after the release of the UK’s Retail Sales. The price is now trading below the 200 Period Moving Average on the 3-minute timeframe. The price has slightly retraced back towards the 200 Period MA. However, if the price regains downward momentum. For example, below 1.34688, sell signals can again materialize.
Key Takeaway Points:
GBP rose during the US bank holiday and Asian session, but gains faded as weak UK economic data emerged.
BoE kept rates unchanged, yet three members, including Deputy Governor Ramsden — voted for a cut, signalling a dovish shift.
UK Retail Sales fell -2.7%, the worst in 18 months and well below expectations, adding to economic concerns.
Unemployment claims rose to 1.735 million, while GBP/USD fell below key technical levels following the retail sales release.
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[b]Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets[/b]
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