Date: 7th August 2026.
Oil and Gold Rise as Traders Await the US Jobs Report.
Key Takeaways
Brent crude rose 1.4% to around $83.65 as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks elevated.
Gold advanced to approximately $4,264, supported by geopolitical uncertainty ahead of the US jobs report.
The US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.68% as higher oil prices revived inflation concerns.
Economists expect the US economy to have added 80,000 jobs in July, following 57,000 additions in June.
The US Dollar strengthened, while the Japanese Yen surrendered almost half of its recent intervention-driven gains.
Asian stocks were mixed as Chinese equities rose, but AI-linked semiconductor shares remained under pressure.
Oil prices Rise as Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz Continues
Global markets entered Friday focused on two major risks: developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the release of the July US nonfarm payrolls report.
Brent crude gained approximately 1.4% to $83.65 per barrel after hopes for a lasting agreement to reopen the strategic waterway weakened. Iranian reports suggested that Tehran may seek to restrict US and Israeli vessels, despite signs that an Iran-Oman arrangement could be approaching its final stages.
Oil remained around 5% lower for the week after previously falling on optimism that the US and Iran would reach an agreement. This leaves prices highly sensitive to headlines. A credible deal could reduce the geopolitical premium, while further restrictions or attacks could quickly push supply concerns back into focus.
The move matters beyond the energy market. Persistently high oil prices can raise transport and production costs, reinforce inflation, and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. That prospect contributed to weakness in government bonds, with the US 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.68%.
Copper Rises on Supply Concerns and Strong Chinese Trade
Copper prices moved higher after the Democratic Republic of Congo introduced an immediate ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports. The decision raised concerns about global supply, briefly pushing London copper prices approximately 1.8% higher.
Sentiment was also supported by strong Chinese trade data. China’s exports increased 23.9% year-on-year in July, while imports rose 27.5%, signalling resilient activity in the world’s largest copper-consuming economy. Traders should monitor whether supply restrictions and Chinese demand can keep copper near its recent record level.
Gold Advances, but Higher Yields May Limit Gains
Gold extended its recovery, with spot XAU/USD rising to around $4,264 an ounce. Silver also moved higher to approximately $62.26, while platinum reached around $1,740.
Geopolitical uncertainty supported demand for precious metals, while Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded a fourteenth consecutive session of inflows.
However, gold faces competing forces. Middle East tensions can increase safe-haven demand, but higher oil prices may also lift inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and the US Dollar. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and could restrict its upside.
The late-June low near $3,942 remains an important technical reference. On the upside, the 200-day moving average near $4,489 represents a major test. A sustained break above it could strengthen the recovery, while a rejection from that area may signal that momentum is fading.
US Nonfarm Payrolls could Reshape Fed Expectations
The July US employment report is the day’s main scheduled event. Economists expect employers to have added 80,000 jobs, compared with a weaker-than-expected increase of 57,000 in June.
Recent data have shown continued resilience. Initial jobless claims remained below 200,000 for a third consecutive week, while second-quarter productivity exceeded expectations. At the same time, higher energy prices have kept inflation, and the possibility of tighter Federal Reserve policy, at the centre of the market outlook.
Traders should assess more than the headline payroll figure. Wage growth, unemployment, labour force participation, and revisions to previous months may determine whether the initial market reaction lasts.
Three NFP Scenarios for Traders
Stronger than expected: A result clearly above 80,000, particularly alongside firm wage growth or lower unemployment, could lift Treasury yields and the US Dollar. Gold, bonds, and rate-sensitive technology shares may face pressure.
Weaker than expected: A soft figure could revive concerns about an economic slowdown and support Treasuries. Lower yields may weaken the Dollar and help gold, although equities could react negatively if the data point to a sharper deterioration in employment.
Mixed report: A weak headline combined with strong wages, or a strong headline alongside higher unemployment, could produce volatile, short-lived moves. In this case, revisions and wage data may matter more than the initial number.
US Dollar Strengthens as the Yen Loses Momentum
The US Dollar strengthened against most major currencies as Treasury yields rose and geopolitical uncertainty supported defensive demand. The US Dollar Index traded close to 100 after recovering from seven-month lows.
USD/JPY traded near 158.35 after falling as low as 155.23 earlier in the week. The Yen has now surrendered almost half of the gains generated by the first coordinated US-Japan intervention since 1998.
The reversal shows that intervention can disrupt a currency trend without necessarily changing the interest rate forces behind it. The 155 area remains a key reference from the intervention move, while the late-July region near 164 may attract renewed attention to the risk of further official action.
Asian Markets Remain Divided over the AI Trade
Asian equities were mixed. China’s CSI 300 rose approximately 1% and the Shanghai Composite gained around 0.8% after the country reported a larger-than-expected July trade surplus. Exports increased 24% year over year, while imports rose 28%.
Technology shares in South Korea and Japan remained under pressure as investors questioned whether elevated AI valuations could be justified by near-term earnings. South Korea’s KOSPI fell around 0.8%, with SK Hynix losing more than 4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined approximately 0.3%, while Fujifilm plunged after announcing that it was considering a partial spin-off of its imaging business.
Despite the recent AI-related sell-off, capital-raising activity remains strong. Asia-Pacific companies raised more than $83 billion through initial public offerings, placements, and block trades in July, indicating that corporate confidence remains high even as investors become more selective.
What Traders Should Watch Today
The US jobs report may generate the day’s largest scheduled move, but its effect will depend on oil prices and inflation expectations. The most important cross-market relationships are:
Rising oil may lift inflation expectations, bond yields, and the US Dollar.
Higher yields could limit gold’s safe-haven gains.
A strong jobs report may pressure highly valued technology and AI shares.
Renewed Yen weakness may increase the risk of further currency intervention.
A credible Hormuz agreement could reverse part of oil’s geopolitical premium.
With major economic data and geopolitical headlines arriving together, volatility may remain elevated across commodities, currencies, bonds, and stock indices. Traders should review the full employment report, prepare for wider spreads, and apply disciplined risk management around the release.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
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