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No fixed rule, because market conditions change. If I’m in a 70% winrate strategy and lose 3 in a row, that’s statistical noise. I keep 1%. If I’m testing a new setup and lose 2 in a row, I’m already down to 0.25%. My only fixed rule: Never increase risk after a loss. Reduction is discretionary: If I feel tilt, if news week is messy, if I took a loss breaking my rules then I cut size regardless of count. Drawdown is emotional. Protect the trader, not just the account.

Agree on the confluence part. Question for everyone: which pivot timeframe do you find most reliable? I stopped using daily pivots because of false breaks at London open. Weekly pivots and daily candle wick rejection has been cleaner for me on H4. What’s working for you guys in 2024-2025 with all the algo volatility?

[B]Date: 14th July 2026.[/B] [B]Oil Prices Jump: How US-Iran Tensions Could Impact Traders.[/B] Oil prices are back in focus after escalating US-Iran tensions reignited concerns over global energy supplies and inflation. Brent crude climbed above $85 per barrel, extending gains for a second consecutive session as markets reacted to renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, investors are preparing for key US inflation data, fresh comments from the Federal Reserve, and the start of the second-quarter earnings season. Together, these events could shape the direction of oil, gold, currencies, and stock markets over the coming days. For traders, this combination of geopolitical risk and macroeconomic data could create significant trading opportunities, but also increased volatility. Why Are Oil Prices Rising? The latest rally follows renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, with concerns that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could once again face disruption. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy corridors, with around one-fifth of global oil supplies passing through it. Even the possibility of supply interruptions is enough to push oil prices higher as traders price in additional geopolitical risk. While no major supply shortages have been confirmed, uncertainty alone has been sufficient to support crude prices and increase volatility across global financial markets. Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and serves as a critical route for oil exports from several major producing nations. Any disruption to this shipping lane can have widespread consequences, including: Higher crude oil prices. Increased transportation and shipping costs. Rising inflationary pressures. Greater uncertainty across global financial markets. Historically, geopolitical tensions involving the Strait of Hormuz have often triggered sharp moves in energy markets, making it a key area for traders to monitor. Rising Oil Prices Could Fuel Inflation Again Higher oil prices don’t just affect the energy sector, they can influence the broader economy. As fuel and transportation costs rise, businesses often face higher operating expenses, which can eventually filter through to consumer prices. This is why oil is closely watched by central banks when assessing inflation risks. The latest increase in crude prices has already prompted markets to increase expectations that the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy further if inflation remains stubbornly high. That shift has pushed Treasury yields higher while adding pressure to growth-oriented assets such as technology stocks. US Inflation Data Could Be the Next Major Market Catalyst Attention now turns to the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Economists expect inflation to cool modestly compared with the previous month, but markets remain highly sensitive to any surprise. Three scenarios could shape market sentiment: Inflation Is Higher Than Expected Expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike increase. Treasury yields may continue climbing. The US Dollar could strengthen. Technology stocks and major equity indices may come under additional pressure. Oil could remain supported if inflation concerns intensify. Inflation Meets Expectations Market attention is likely to remain focused on geopolitical developments. Oil prices and Federal Reserve commentary may continue driving sentiment. Inflation Is Lower Than Expected Pressure on the Federal Reserve may ease. Treasury yields could decline. Equities may recover. Gold could benefit from improved risk sentiment and lower yields. Federal Reserve Expectations Are Shifting Markets have become increasingly convinced that another interest rate increase remains a possibility. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced the view that policymakers may need to keep borrowing costs elevated if inflation proves more persistent than expected. Higher interest rates generally strengthen the US Dollar while increasing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. They also tend to weigh on growth sectors, particularly technology companies whose valuations depend heavily on future earnings. For traders, changes in interest rate expectations often generate volatility across forex, indices, commodities, and bond markets. Technology Stocks Face Fresh Pressure Artificial intelligence has been one of the biggest themes driving equity markets this year, but investors are becoming more selective. Recent weakness in semiconductor shares highlighted growing concerns that some AI-related valuations may have become stretched. Higher bond yields and rising interest rate expectations add further pressure because they reduce the present value of future earnings, making growth companies more vulnerable during tightening cycles. This could lead to larger price swings in the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductor stocks as earnings season begins. Gold Returns as a Safe-Haven Asset Gold rebounded after two consecutive days of losses as investors balanced two competing forces. On one hand, higher interest rates usually reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty often boosts demand for safe-haven investments. If tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, safe-haven buying could provide ongoing support for gold even if expectations for tighter monetary policy remain elevated. Markets Traders Should Watch This Week Several key markets are likely to remain particularly sensitive in the coming days: Brent Crude and WTI Oil - vulnerable to further geopolitical developments. US Dollar Index (DXY) - driven by inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. Gold – balancing safe-haven demand against higher bond yields. US Treasury Yields - especially the 2-year note, which closely reflects interest rate expectations. NASDAQ 100 and Semiconductor Stocks - sensitive to both earnings results and interest rate expectations. Energy Stocks - could continue benefiting if crude oil remains elevated. Risk Management During High Volatility This week combines several powerful market catalysts: Escalating US-Iran tensions. Higher oil prices. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Federal Reserve commentary. The beginning of earnings season. When multiple high-impact events occur within a short period, market volatility can increase rapidly. Rather than reacting to individual headlines, traders should focus on how these events interact. A stronger-than-expected inflation report alongside sustained gains in oil prices could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, affecting currencies, commodities, and global equity indices simultaneously. Maintaining disciplined risk management, appropriate position sizing, and clearly defined trading plans becomes especially important during periods of heightened uncertainty. Bottom Line Escalating US-Iran tensions have once again placed oil markets at the centre of global investor attention. Brent crude has climbed above $85 per barrel, reviving concerns about inflation just as traders prepare for crucial US CPI data, Federal Reserve guidance, and the start of earnings season. For traders, the days ahead could bring significant opportunities across oil, gold, currencies, and stock indices. However, the combination of geopolitical developments and major economic releases also increases the potential for sharp price swings. Staying informed, monitoring key economic events, and managing risk carefully will be essential as markets navigate one of the most eventful weeks of the quarter. [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B] [B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/B] [B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Brent rises on concerns over oil supply stability Brent prices maintain upward momentum amid rising geopolitical risks and an improving technical picture, currently standing at 83.26 USD. Technical outlook Brent quotes have confidently consolidated above the upper boundary of the descending channel, indicating a change in market sentiment in favour of buyers. Price consolidation above the EMA-65, which is now acting as dynamic support, further confirmed the strengthening upward momentum. Fundamental factors and the improving technical picture continue to support the uptrend in Brent. Read more - Brent Forecast Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

XAUUSD under pressure: oil, inflation, and the Fed unite against gold Ahead of US data, gold is attempting to regain ground, with XAUUSD prices testing the 4,030 USD level. XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways US Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 4.2%, projected at 3.8% The escalation of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is weighing on XAUUSD quotes The Federal Reserve may raise the interest rate in the near term Fundamental analysis The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 14 July 2026, shows that gold is forming a correction after declining and testing the 4,030 USD mark. Following a series of hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, the market has increased the likelihood of an interest rate hike at the September meeting. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar are reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

My view

DE 40 forecast: the index enters a correction The DE 40 stock index entered a correction after reaching a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive. DE 40 forecast: key takeaways Recent data: Germany’s industrial production rose by 1.9% month-on-month in May Market impact: the data creates a moderately positive backdrop for the German stock market Fundamental analysis The publication of German industrial production data is a moderately positive signal for the DE 40 index. In May, the indicator rose by 0.9% compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 0.1%. Furthermore, output continued to rise following a revised increase of 0.2% in April. Since the DE 40 index includes the country’s largest publicly traded companies and represents the main part of German stock market capitalisation, improved macroeconomic indicators may support its price. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

BTC trapped: USD, oil, and the Fed are putting pressure on cryptocurrencies After another attempt to regain ground, the BTCUSD price is forming a correction and is hovering around 63,000 USD. Technical outlook On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue the corrective wave as the signal plays out, with the downside target at the 61,730 support level. Today’s Bitcoin price forecast is not favourable for the cryptocurrency. Read more - BTCUSD Forecast Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

My opinion: Don't look at specific dates, only the overall trend direction. Furthermore, a cycle only repeats 3-5 times, and the phase changes, so 1. You need to set two LBC: one with the latest price and one with a price some time ago, to find a common trend direction. 2. Set the FSM to 2-4, not too long This is a video posted by a forum member: hxxps://youtu.be/qFNpUuh-7EI This is one of his forum threads hxxps://www.forexfactory.com/thread/108462-planetary-cycles-trading-eurusd?page=740

My perspective is different on this, look for change in trend on these date instead of finding tops and bottoms. as far as trading is concerned still needs to figure out how to trade this , may be entry on breakout of high/ low of the day and keeping the dates low/ high as SL.. let’s observe couple of more dates.

Thanks Santosh. As can be seen, projection indicated a Top on 1 July but it happens to be a low. 1-2 days can be in tolerance but in the present case its off by 5 days which is a long time in trading/intra day trading. Like this only I lost money and confidence in the software! In any case, there are many people in their forum who swears by the software, I dont know how they make money or adjust to the wild variations. Posting the software for those confident people!

even a basic strategy needs precise rules for entry, exit and risk. Otherwise “strategy” just becomes a loose explanation added after the trade. Broker conditions matter too, but they can’t create an edge by themselves

Updated chart

Date: 10th July 2026. Market Wrap: AI Stocks Rally While Oil, Yen and Inflation Stay in Focus. Global financial markets ended the week on a stronger footing as investors shifted their attention back to artificial intelligence (AI) opportunities, helping technology stocks recover despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While concerns surrounding the US-Iran conflict continue to influence energy markets, traders are once again focusing on corporate earnings, AI investment, and central bank expectations. AI Stocks Lead the Recovery Technology shares staged a strong rebound after several sessions of volatility, as investors viewed the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity rather than the start of a broader correction. The renewed optimism followed announcements of significant AI-related investment. Micron Technology revealed plans to increase its US manufacturing investment to $250 billion, reinforcing expectations that demand for AI infrastructure and advanced memory chips will remain strong for years to come. At the same time, South Korea’s SK Hynix attracted significant investor attention ahead of its NASDAQ listing after raising $26.5 billion through an American Depositary Share offering. Together with Samsung Electronics, the company is expected to play a central role in South Korea's ambitious semiconductor expansion programme. These developments helped lift semiconductor stocks across Asia and supported gains in global technology indices, with investors increasingly positioning ahead of the upcoming earnings season. Asian Markets Finish Higher Asian equities broadly advanced on Friday, driven primarily by strength in semiconductor and AI-related companies. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained around 2%, while South Korea's KOSPI surged more than 4%, recovering from recent losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also posted solid gains, putting it on track for one of its strongest weekly performances in over a year. The rally reflects improving confidence that AI-related spending remains one of the strongest long-term investment themes despite elevated valuations. Japanese Yen Strengthens on Pension Reform Expectations One of the week’s most notable developments came from Japan’s currency and bond markets. The Japanese yen strengthened after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama indicated that the government intends to encourage the country’s large pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to increase allocations towards domestic financial assets. Such a structural shift could generate long-term demand for Japanese government bonds, equities, and the yen itself. Following the announcement: The yen appreciated against the US dollar. Japanese government bond yields eased from multi-decade highs. Investors viewed the comments as more supportive for the currency than previous intervention efforts. Meanwhile, South Korea’s won experienced increased volatility after officials suggested the currency remains weaker than economic fundamentals justify and confirmed authorities retain the ability to stabilise exchange rates if necessary. Oil Holds Firm as Middle East Risks Persist Crude oil prices remained elevated, with Brent crude trading near $76.50 per barrel and WTI above $72, leaving both benchmarks on track for strong weekly gains. Although markets have become somewhat less concerned about an immediate escalation of the US-Iran conflict, geopolitical risk premiums remain firmly embedded in oil prices. The biggest concern continues to be shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supplies. Tanker traffic has slowed significantly following renewed military activity in the region, increasing fears of potential supply disruptions. However, investors also drew reassurance from ongoing diplomatic discussions between Washington and Tehran, as well as comments suggesting that neither side currently appears willing to target major energy infrastructure directly. For now, markets are balancing elevated geopolitical risks against hopes that diplomatic efforts will prevent a wider regional conflict. Bond Markets Reflect Lower Risk Appetite US Treasury prices continued to rise, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield slightly lower to around 4.53%. The move reflects a modest shift towards safer assets as investors continue monitoring developments in the Middle East while also preparing for the start of the US earnings season. A weaker US dollar also supported broader market sentiment, extending its second consecutive weekly decline against major currencies. European Inflation Continues to Ease Fresh inflation data from Germany and France offered encouraging news for the European Central Bank. Germany’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May. Although energy prices remain one of the largest contributors to inflation, their pace of increase continues to moderate. France delivered an even softer report, with annual inflation falling to 1.8%, while core inflation slowed to 1.0%. Lower energy costs, easing food prices, and weaker services inflation all contributed to the decline. The latest figures reinforce expectations that the ECB is likely to keep interest rates unchanged during the summer while monitoring whether inflation continues moving sustainably towards its target. Corporate Developments Worth Watching Several major technology companies also made headlines: Meta introduced a paid version of its most advanced AI model for developers, creating a new revenue stream from artificial intelligence services. OpenAI announced leadership changes after executive Fidji Simo stepped back from her operational role following medical leave. Oracle was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings to the lowest investment-grade rating as heavy AI-related spending increases financial pressure. Starbucks revealed it is developing more internal AI tools that could eventually replace some third-party enterprise software. These announcements underline how AI continues to reshape corporate investment strategies well beyond the technology sector. What Traders Should Watch Next Looking ahead, several themes are likely to dominate financial markets: US corporate earnings, particularly from major technology companies, will determine whether AI-driven valuations remain justified. Any developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations could quickly influence oil prices, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment. Continued movements in the Japanese yen may provide clues about future capital flows following Japan’s pension reform discussions. Investors will also closely monitor upcoming economic data for further signals on the timing of future interest rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. While geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, market leadership has once again shifted towards technology and AI-related investments. As earnings season begins, traders should prepare for increased volatility as markets weigh strong corporate fundamentals against ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Tech forecast: the index continues to trade sideways The US Tech index is trading sideways without a clear trend. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive. US Tech forecast: key takeaways Recent data: US services PMI came in at 51.2 in June 2026 Market impact: the current data has a negative impact on the technology sector Fundamental analysis US services PMI data appears moderately negative for the market, but it does not represent a strong stress signal. The actual PMI reading was 51.2, compared to the forecast of 51.3 and the previous reading of 51.3. For the US Tech, the impact could be mixed. On the one hand, weaker PMI indicates slower activity across the largest part of the US economy. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

The Fed vs the BoJ: who will win the battle for the USDJPY rate The yen is once again attempting to recover after losing ground against the USD, with the USDJPY rate currently at 161.70. Technical outlook On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band and is trading around 161.65. Since the price remains within an ascending channel, it may continue its corrective wave following the pattern signal, with the downside target at 161.30. The yen continues its struggle against the USD and is once again attempting to strengthen without waiting for intervention from the Japanese government. Read more - USDJPY Forecast Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team