RBFX Support Posted April 17 Report Share Posted April 17 (edited) EUR halted. Overview for 17.04.2024 The primary currency pair paused its sell-off on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0624. The market has grown weary of selling, particularly as the five-month lows have been updated repeatedly. Monetary policymakers from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank were quite active yesterday, but the market has already factored in all their comments in the quotes. Jerome Powell, Chair of the US Federal Reserve, stated yesterday that the regulator hopes to receive more confident data on inflation stabilisation in the future. Investors interpreted his remarks literally, concluding that the Fed is not ready to cut interest rates in June and is shifting forecasts to September. European Central Bank member Francois Villeroy de Galhau highlighted the ECB's ability to adjust the pace of interest rate cuts if the Middle East conflict has a long-term impact on energy prices. The ECB is expected to make its first interest rate cut after the June meeting. Inflation in the region is confidently heading towards 2%. Market participants expect to see three rate cuts by the end of 2024. While there is no contradiction between monetary policies, the market's reaction to Powell's remarks is evident: investors are adjusting their strategies in response to the absence of decisive action from the Fed on a global scale. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited April 17 by RBFX Support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted April 19 Author Report Share Posted April 19 NZD hit new lows. Overview for 19.04.2024 The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US dollar, is declining on Friday. The current NZDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.5882. Investors are avoiding risks, which affects the New Zealand dollar, among other factors. The geopolitical factor in the Middle East currently plays a significant role as the primary market catalyst. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive commentary pressured the NZD. Investors are considering that the Fed might not reduce interest rates this year. This situation strengthens the US dollar’s position and hurts other currencies. This week, New Zealand released statistics indicating that inflation in Q1 dropped to 4% y/y, the lowest CPI value since summer 2021. Meanwhile, the RBNZ’s official inflation forecast for Q1 remains at 3.8%. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted April 22 Author Report Share Posted April 22 EUR is rising moderately. Overview for 22.04.2024 The primary currency pair maintains its upward trajectory on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0663. Recent comments from the US Federal Reserve have led investors to reconsider global interest rate cut timelines. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is believed to start reducing the interest rate in the mid-year. ECB member Madis Muller stated on Friday that the regulator may cut interest rates several times by the end of the year after the initial move in June if inflation is in line with expectations. ECB president Christine Lagarde hinted at the same last week without providing indications of specific timelines. ECB official Robert Holzmann stated earlier that the ECB will likely need more time to be prepared to cut rates as aggressively as planned. As usual, opinions differ, but this diversity of viewpoints proves positive: the market is concerned about prospects and, therefore, carefully analyses the developments. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted April 25 Author Report Share Posted April 25 EUR has paused. Overview for 25.04.2024 The main currency pair paused its ascent on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0705. Nothing significant happened; the market remains highly sensitive to even the slightest changes in global sentiment. Today, the US will release the GDP statistics for Q1 2024. The economy is expected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous 3.4%. A local slowdown in economic growth at the beginning of the year may be a normal response to some dip in activity. However, the GDP is forecasted to gain dynamics later on. The market believes the US dollar is emerging as the most effective currency this year. Simultaneously, the fundamental performance of the US economic system compared to other countries suggests that USD could continue rising against other currencies. The US dollar is supported by rising US government spending and high demand for the safe-haven asset. Moreover, the deflationary effect of China's economic decline buoys the USD. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted April 26 Author Report Share Posted April 26 (edited) EUR is rising smoothly. Overview for 26.04.2024 The primary currency pair demonstrates a modest increase on Friday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0722. The market is uncertain whether the US Federal Reserve has all the necessary arguments to lower the interest rate in the near future. Yesterday's weak US GDP release for Q1 2024 could have been a reason to soften the monetary policy if the Fed were prepared to act. The US economy increased by only 1.6% in January-March, contrary to the expected rise of 2.5%. In Q4 last year, the GDP demonstrated a 3.4% increase. Meanwhile, consumer demand remains high. This factor limits the Fed's actions, compelling it to await a more opportune moment to lower the rate. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is packed with statistics. The focus is on the March Core PCE inflationary component and reports on Americans' income and spending for the previous month. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited April 26 by RBFX Support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted April 29 Author Report Share Posted April 29 AUD continues to rise. Overview for 29.04.2024 The Australian dollar appears strong against the US dollar. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6567. The Aussie surpassed a three-week high against its American counterpart as the USD slightly corrected its position ahead of this week's meeting. It is worth noting that the Aussie has surged to its 11-year high against the JPY. The anticipated currency interventions from the Bank of Japan still do not deter anyone. Previous inflation statistics in Australia reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not embark on monetary policy easing anytime soon. The consumer price index in Q1 declined to 3.6% from the previous 4.1%. However, it remained above the forecasted 3.4%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of easing inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the monthly index accelerated in March, reaching 3.5% from 3.4% in February. This week, Australia will publish retail sales and trade statistics, providing further insights into the state of the economy. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 2 Author Report Share Posted May 2 JPY remains highly volatile. Overview for 02.05.2024 The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, declines again. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 155.82. The market speculates about the reason behind the yen’s strong movements this week. Although the Japanese authorities have not officially confirmed interventions to support the national currency, investors are convinced that there were financial injections, and twice. One of Japan’s monetary policymakers Masato Kanda stated that the government would disclose data on possible interventions at the end of next month. Financial injections are likely to have driven the yen’s short-term rally. Such interventions will not produce a significant effect as the main reason for JPY’s weakness is the difference between the interest rates of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. Nothing has changed on this issue. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 7 Author Report Share Posted May 7 JPY declines again. Overview for 07.05.2024 The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, resumes its decline. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 154.54. After a series of strengthening moves, the yen came under pressure again amid the statements of a leading monetary policymaker Masato Kanda that the government is ready to fight speculative movements of exchange rates. However, Kanda left unanswered the question of interventions last week. The yen rose by 5.2% from its 34-year lows, with strong growth observed during three sessions but then stopping. As the Bank of Japan data shows, at least 60 billion USD was spent to protect the yen. If these were targeted interventions, it is no wonder that the yen resumed its decline once they were over. Fundamental indicators remain negative for the JPY – the difference between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve approaches is profound. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 8 Author Report Share Posted May 8 AUD is declining. Overview for 08.05.2024 The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, is retreating. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6577. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% after its Monday meeting. Overall, the RBA maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy, emphasising the need to monitor developments in its comments. Simultaneously, the regulator has acknowledged an unexpected rise in inflation and a sudden decrease in the unemployment rate. These factors have been reflected in the revised official macroeconomic forecasts, which have led to a downward revision of GDP forecasts. The RBA acknowledged considerable uncertainty regarding short-term interest rates. Monetary policymakers will remain vigilant regarding the risks of mounting inflation. This time, monetary authorities considered the possibility of an interest rate hike alongside other scenarios. The RBA primarily aims to curb inflation without pushing the economy into recession. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 13 Author Report Share Posted May 13 NZD is declining. Overview for 13.05.2024 The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US dollar, is retreating. The current NZDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6008. The position of the US dollar has stabilised, once again exerting pressure on the NZD. The market focus is shifting to the US inflation statistics, which are scheduled for release this week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its meeting next week, with the interest rate expected to remain at 5.5% per annum. The RBNZ intends to maintain its restrictive monetary policy until there are more concrete indications that inflation is approaching the designated 2% target. Overall, the RBNZ's position aligns with the global agenda: monitoring prices, recording economic slowdown facts, and keeping its finger on the pulse to intervene at the right moment. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 14 Author Report Share Posted May 14 EURUSD reached equilibrium. Overview for 14.05.2024 The primary currency pair is consolidating on Tuesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0784. The currency market is clearly conserving strength ahead of this week's release of the US consumer price index report, projected to provide much insight into the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. According to the CME FedWatch monitor, the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the September meeting is 60%. This week's attention is focused on the US consumer price index, scheduled for release this Wednesday. Core inflation in April is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m, which is lower than the March value of 0.4% m/m. However, before that, on Tuesday, the US will publish the producer price index statistics for April. The market will meticulously analyse the data to understand how quickly inflation is approaching the 2% target. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 15 Author Report Share Posted May 15 EURUSD has reached a new five-week peak. Overview for 15.05.2024 The primary currency pair is advancing on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0822. Upbeat comments from Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chair, regarding the state of the US economy weighed on the US dollar. He gave a relatively confident outlook on GDP growth rates. Powell believes that the economy is still growing more vigorously than the trend. Additionally, he is convinced that inflationary pressures will ease. Despite recent statistics that could challenge this confidence, Powell remains steadfast in his optimistic views. This year, high consumer prices have prompted the Federal Reserve to alter its monetary policy trajectory, compelling it to abandon its monetary easing strategy to gather more data. Investors anticipated six interest rate cuts in January, but now, only one is expected. According to the CME FedWatch monitor data, the interest rate may be lowered by a maximum of 45 basis points this year, with the first cut expected in September. Today is crucial as the market awaits inflation and retail sales data for April. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 16 Author Report Share Posted May 16 (edited) JPY “revives”. Overview for 16.05.2024 The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, has significantly strengthened. The current exchange rate for USDJPY stands at 153.88. The yen found support as the US dollar fell. Following the release of inflation data the previous day, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increased markedly. Inflation in April slowed to 3.4% y/y from the earlier 3.5%, with the core CPI dropping to 3.6% y/y from 3.8%. This easing of inflationary pressure provides grounds for anticipating a greater potential for a Fed rate cut in September. Consequently, the dollar retreated, enabling the yen to regain its position. However, the morning’s GDP statistics for Japan failed to inspire confidence. The economy contracted by 2.0% year-on-year in Q1 2024, surpassing the expected 1.5% decline. The downturn was 0.5% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, higher than the projected -0.3%. The report shows that weak private consumption emerged as the primary driver behind the GDP fall, marking a decline for four consecutive quarters. Meanwhile, yen investors remained undeterred by the report, preoccupied with market corrections. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited May 16 by RBFX Support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 17 Author Report Share Posted May 17 JPY is declining again. Overview for 17.05.2024 The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, is retreating at the end of the week. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 155.77. Morning data showed that the Bank of Japan had kept the volume of bond purchases the same, refraining from taking action after reducing the volume earlier in the week. Investors speculated that the Japanese regulator kept the amounts unchanged, believing that the JPY had already received support from the recent weakening of the US dollar. Meanwhile, traders continue to bet that the BoJ will decide to lower bond purchase parameters at its upcoming meeting. It is worth noting Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda’s statement that the central bank has no plans to sell its assets. This week’s statistics showed a slowdown in the Japanese economy. The country’s GDP in Q1 contracted by 2% y/y, falling short of expectations. Private consumption has declined for four consecutive quarters, dragging down the entire system. Such a report presents significant challenges for the Bank of Japan, which must balance supporting the economic system and protecting the weak yen. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 20 Author Report Share Posted May 20 EURUSD is slightly higher. Overview for 20.05.2024 The primary currency pair looks lively on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0880. This morning, the exchange rate touched 1.0895, marking a two-month peak tested last week. The market will soon mainly focus on the core PCE data, a key inflation indicator used by the Federal Reserve to gauge price pressure. This data will be released on 31 May. The market believes that the Fed will not have all the necessary statistics for its next meeting and will, therefore, not make crucial decisions in June or July. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might use his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in August to present his stance regarding the September meeting. Investors will focus this week on the publication of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes and the eurozone's current PMI data. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 21 Author Report Share Posted May 21 GBP is rising higher. Overview for 21.05.2024 The British pound is strengthening its position against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2709. The pound appears steady, supported by the local decline in the US dollar and comments from monetary policymakers. In his speech yesterday, Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent did not rule out a summer interest rate cut. However, Broadbent provided no specific information indicating that this scenario is inevitable. Market expectations show the likelihood of lowering the interest rate to 5.00% from the current 5.25% at the next meeting in June. The Bank of England continues to gather information and data on the state of the UK’s economic system. If the situation continues to develop in line with its forecasts, the bank rate will likely change. On Wednesday, the UK will release inflation statistics, crucial for understanding the BoE’s future actions. According to the consensus forecast, the consumer price index decreased to 2.1% in April from 3.2% in March. The Bank of England’s CPI target is precisely 2.0%. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 22 Author Report Share Posted May 22 EURUSD activity has declined. Overview for 22.05.2024 The primary currency pair is hardly moving on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0853. The US dollar appears stable as the currency market conserves strength ahead of tonight’s release of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes. Investors have already weighed calls for patience from some monetary policymakers and are now eager to compare these comments with the official documents. With a scarcity of significant macroeconomic statistics scheduled for this week, the market has to depend on its own data and interpretations of current developments. The major currencies are moving within narrow ranges. Meanwhile, forecasts for a stronger-than-expected interest rate cut are becoming more relevant following last week’s weak April inflation reports release. The consensus forecast suggests the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 43 basis points this year. A week ago, this figure was 52 basis points. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 23 Author Report Share Posted May 23 GBP is appreciating. Overview for 23.05.2024 The British pound sterling is still ascending against the US dollar. The current exchange rate for GBPUSD stands at 1.2727. Yesterday's published statistics revealed a decrease in British inflation. On a year-on-year basis, the Consumer Price Index in April fell to 2.3% from the previous 3.2%. The forecast had anticipated a more significant decline to 2.1% y/y. On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose by 0.3% compared to the previous 0.6%, once again defying expectations and not ruling out the 0.2% increase. Investors' reaction to the inflation statistics was not positive. The data suggests that the Bank of England will maintain a wait-and-see stance for now, but by August, it may be ready to begin an easing cycle. These expectations are worse than before: prior to the release of statistics, the market had anticipated a cut in the BoE interest rate as early as June. It is said on the market that the pound currently needs grounds to stand out among the G-10 currencies. The interest rate in the UK remains at 5.25% per annum. With it staying high, the pound is gaining on this front. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 24 Author Report Share Posted May 24 EURUSD shows no resistance. Overview for 24.05.2024 The primary currency pair continues to weaken at the end of the week. The current exchange rate for EURUSD stands at 1.0805. May statistics showed that business activity in the US accelerated to the highest level in two years. The preliminary value of the Markit Services PMI increased to 54.8 points in May from 51.3 points previously, and the Manufacturing PMI in May rose to 50.9 points from 50.0 points. At the same time, several manufacturers reported an increase in prices for a range of resources, providing one of the reasons for revising expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve interest rates. Such signals are pro-inflationary and are negative news for the Fed. According to CME's FedWatch monitor, the timing for the Fed's first interest rate cut has now been pushed from November to December. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 27 Author Report Share Posted May 27 JPY has strengthened. Overview for 27.05.2024 The Japanese yen has moderately risen against the US dollar. The current USDJPY pair stands at 156.73. Bank of Japan monetary policymakers are actively commenting on current developments. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that it is premature to address interest rate issues until inflation expectations consolidate. Assessing a fair, neutral interest rate level is currently very difficult. His colleague, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, believes the BoJ is close to completing its battle against deflation. He noted that wage growth will likely continue. Japan has been combating deflation for over a decade and has yet to be successful. Previously released inflation data exerted local pressure on the yen. The overall consumer price index decreased to 2.5% in April from 2.7% in March. April’s core inflation fell to 2.2% from 2.6% in March, marking the second consecutive month of decline. These are not the most favourable figures. The Bank of Japan continues to fight for stable prices. The interest rate will remain unchanged until signs of confidence in this area emerge. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 28 Author Report Share Posted May 28 EUR continues to rise. Overview for 28.05.2024 The primary currency pair is experiencing upward momentum. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0875. The currency market is witnessing an encouraging surge in risk appetite, bolstering the euro’s position and exerting pressure on the US dollar. The US currency is holding within narrow ranges against its major competitors ahead of Friday’s core PCE report. The inflation release is expected to provide investors with more data for insight into the Federal Reserve’s future monetary actions. The European Central Bank has made neutral comments, while German statistics have reflected a deterioration in business sentiment in May. Germany will release inflation data on Wednesday, and the eurozone will publish its reports on Friday. These figures are of utmost importance ahead of the ECB’s June meeting. Investors are eager to know how soon the ECB might ease monetary policy. Inflation in the eurozone may continue to slow. If so, the European regulator has every argument to prepare for an interest rate cut next week. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 29 Author Report Share Posted May 29 JPY is gradually retreating. Overview for 29.05.2024 The Japanese yen is declining against the US dollar on Wednesday. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 157.24. The instrument is currently at a four-week high. The yen has returned to the levels observed before Tokyo intervened to support the national currency in late April and early May. On 29 April, the US dollar reached a 34-year peak of 160.24 yen, prompting at least two currency interventions by the Japanese monetary authorities. According to various estimates, about nine trillion yen or more (57.21 billion USD) was spent to support the weak yen. The JPY exchange rate stabilised and recouped some losses, but not for long. The Japanese monetary authorities continue to make verbal interventions, which have no impact on the market. As the market suggests, without real actions, the dollar-yen exchange rate will rapidly return to levels preceding the intervention. The Bank of Japan may expect an interest rate hike if a sharp weakening of the yen rate leads to inflationary growth. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 30 Author Report Share Posted May 30 (edited) EURUSD is under selling pressure. Overview for 30.05.2024 The primary currency pair looks relatively weak on Thursday. The current exchange rate for EURUSD is 1.0792. Yesterday, a substantial rise in US government bond yields significantly impacted the US dollar, pulling it up and causing a dramatic shift in sentiment in the currency market and a subsequent decrease in risk appetite. Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year have decreased amid signs of persistent inflation. According to the CME FedWatch monitor, the likelihood of a rate cut at the September meeting is estimated at 56.6%, down from 57.5% a week earlier. However, there is much discussion in the market that the rate cut might occur in November instead of September, which is essential to bear in mind. The Fed itself has not provided any additional comments on this matter. The release of revised US GDP statistics for Q1 today is expected to be a significant event, potentially leading to increased volatility. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited May 30 by RBFX Support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted May 31 Author Report Share Posted May 31 EUR is growing, but the dollar is gloomy. Overview for 31.05.2024 The primary currency pair is gaining on Friday. The current exchange rate for EURUSD is 1.0817. The US dollar stabilised by today, but it noticeably weakened the evening before. This development was attributed to the publication of the second estimate of the US GDP for Q1 2024. The data do not rule out the possibility of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. The statistics showed that GDP increased by only 1.3% y/y in January-March, while the first estimate reflected a 1.6% rise. This deterioration in the data has opened the door for the Fed to consider at least one rate cut by the end of the year. The market's current assessment of the likelihood of monetary policy easing at the September meeting stands at 55%, compared to 51% a day earlier. Today, the market focuses on the Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation component. By this evening, the market will have more data on which to base speculations about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted June 3 Author Report Share Posted June 3 NZD continues its ascent. Overview for 03.06.2024 The New Zealand dollar is rising against the US dollar. The current NZDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6142. Trading volumes for the NZD appear relatively small at the beginning of the week due to the market pause in observance of the King's Birthday. The main support for the NZD now is the weak US dollar. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, Core PCE, for April, released on Friday, was in line with expectations at 2.7% y/y, allowing the US Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate this year. The dollar has naturally weakened while other currencies have risen. Maintaining high interest rates in New Zealand supports the NZD's position despite some weakening in the domestic economy. Earlier, the RBNZ reaffirmed its hawkish stance on monetary policy, surprising many by considering an interest rate hike. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain unchanged, slightly reducing the likelihood of monetary policy tightening. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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