HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[AllForexnews]

[B]Date: 29th July 2026.[/B]

 

[B]Fed Decision, Oil Surge, and Big Tech Earnings: Markets Brace for Volatility.[/B]

 

 

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision this evening, keeping markets on edge. Economists still expect the committee to vote for a pause, but there continues to be a growing sense of uncertainty. Many institutions now believe the Federal Open Market Committee may hike under the influence of the new Fed chairman.

 

Over the past three days, there has been less pressure on the Federal Reserve to act fast as oil prices fell. This was due to a pause in hostilities in the Middle East. However, this came to an end early this morning, with Iran firing missiles from its territory, as well as from Iranian-backed groups in Iraq. For this reason, Crude Oil prices rose 4.00% on Wednesday morning.

 

Crude Oil Spike To Pressure The Federal Reserve To Hike?

Crude oil’s bearish trend comes to a halt, with the price opening on a bullish price gap and trading 4.00% higher this morning. The US has told journalists that they intercepted missiles overnight at multiple bases in the Middle East. Jordan also said that 5 missiles had been fired towards its territory by Iran. According to reports, the United States and Saudi Arabia are conducting a joint operation targeting Iranian-backed militant groups in Iraq following Iran's recent attack.

 

Although prices declined earlier in the week, the commodity market remains under pressure. Despite the pause in hostilities, key shipping routes in the Middle East remain closed. This includes the Straits of Hormuz and Strait of Bab Al-Mandab.

 

The price is forming a bullish flag pattern, which is understandable, taking into consideration the bullish volatility this morning. The bullish volatility has sent the price above most moving averages on the lower timeframes, and, due to the loss of volatility, has fallen to the neutral level on oscillators. However, if the price remains above $81.40, bullish signals can still arise.

 

HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart

 

Higher oil prices throughout today’s session are likely to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. In addition to this, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 22,000 last week to 187,000. This is the lowest level since September 1969, giving the Fed more room to hike. However, the consensus still points to a pause for now, with a rate hike expected in September.

 

Gold Rises on China Demand, but for How Long?

Gold prices are rising this morning after finding support as the US Dollar retraces. Reports also continue that China is taking advantage of the lower price and positive exchange rate to boost its Gold portfolios and reserves.

 

China continues to buy large amounts of physical gold. In June, the country imported around 173 tonnes, the highest monthly total in two years, as lower gold prices and new import rules allowed banks to purchase more. Gold imports reached 163 tonnes in May, while imports during the first five months of 2026 climbed to 692 tonnes. This is 76% higher compared to the same period last year.

 

At the same time, Chinese investors pulled money out of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at a record pace in June. According to the World Gold Council, gold ETF holdings fell by 15 billion yuan, with total assets dropping 16% to 243 billion yuan (around $36 billion), the lowest level since December 2025. Investors taking profits after gold’s strong rally drove prices lower, as did a stronger US Dollar.

 

Nonetheless, economists continue to advise that the longer-term price movement will depend on the Federal Reserve decision and the US Dollar. While the US Dollar Index remains firmly above 100.00, Gold may struggle to gain bullish momentum. If the price of Gold falls below $4,029.00, buy signals in the short term will quickly fade.

 

HFM - Gold 15-Minute Chart

NASDAQ - Bubble and Credit Fears Remain

The price of the NASDAQ is experiencing impulse waves in both directions during this morning’s Asian session. However, the price remains weak and at risk of further downside. The price action over the next 48 hours will depend on the Fed’s rate decision, forward guidance, and major earnings reports.

 

In the US, the second-quarter earnings season continues this week, with major retail and technology companies reporting results. After the market close, Microsoft and Meta are both expected to post higher revenue and earnings, supported by AI-driven growth. However, economists advise that in order for the stocks to find support, companies need to ‘significantly’ beat expectations and not shock traders with extreme company borrowing to fund AI projects.

 

A key support level for the NASDAQ can be seen at $27,498.00, while the resistance level is visible at $28,039.55.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Markets are focused on the Federal Reserve, with a pause expected, but uncertainty continuing to grow. Many institutions now believe the Fed may opt for an early hike.
• Crude oil rose 4% after renewed Middle East tensions increased concerns over inflation and global supply disruptions.
• Gold found support from strong physical demand in China, despite record outflows from Chinese gold ETFs.
• The Federal Reserve’s decision and the US Dollar are expected to determine Gold's next major price move.
• The NASDAQ remains under pressure as investors await the Fed decision and earnings from Microsoft and Meta.

[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]

 

[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]

 

Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE!

 

[URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL]

 

[B]Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets[/B]

 

[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[AllForexnews]

Date: 30th July 2026.

Hawkish Fed Talk, Iran Tensions, and Mixed Tech Earnings Pressure Markets.
 

The Federal Reserve opts for a hawkish pause, with the chairman, Kevin Warsh, warning markets about rising inflation. Simultaneously, the US continues to strike Iranian targets, sending oil prices higher for a second day and adding to inflation fears. As a result, the stock market continues to decline, the US Dollar took a dive but is now recovering, and Gold continues to experience swings in both directions.

The stock market’s first reaction to the Federal Reserve’s decision was positive, as 36% of the market had previously been expecting a rate cut. However, US indices were quick to fall back lower as the chairman’s hawkish tone hit investor sentiment.
 

Microsoft Earnings Saves The NASDAQ From Larger Declines

The NASDAQ has fallen to its lowest level since 29 April as investors price in higher inflation, rate hikes, and mixed earnings reports. During the early hours of this morning’s Asian session, the NASDAQ rose upwards after finding some support from positive earnings reports.

Microsoft stock saw a significant rise after market close due to its stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings report for the second quarter. After the report was made public, the stock rose 8.90%, a much-needed boost for a stock that was trading at a 17% loss. According to analysts, without the boost from Microsoft’s positive earnings report, the NASDAQ would likely be trading below 27,000 points.

Microsoft’s revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% year over year and above Wall Street’s expectation of approximately $87 billion. Earnings were $4.74 per share, comfortably beating the expected $4.24. Furthermore, Azure and cloud services revenue grew 43%, exceeding the roughly 40% growth analysts expected. Azure also generated more than $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time.

Meta, on the other hand, saw a significant decline after making its own report public. Analysts had feared that Meta’s aggressive AI expansion and rising investment costs could weigh on its results. This fear indeed was proven through the latest quarterly report. Free cash flow collapsed by 91%, falling to just $784 million, as spending on data centres, chips, and other AI infrastructure increased sharply. In addition to this, Meta reported earnings of $6.18 per share, below analysts’ estimate of around $7.20.
 

HFM - NASDAQ 2-Hour

The price of the index retraced upwards but is seeing another bearish swing. However, sell indications may not be seen until the price falls to $27,240.00. On larger timeframes, the indications remain in favour of a bearish sentiment. The main concern for investors remains higher interest rates, trade tariffs, and rising inflation.
 

Gold - A Hawkish Fed Keeps the Pressure on Gold

The price of Gold rose in response to the Federal Reserve’s pause. However, concerns remain, and bearish signals remain in place. The US Dollar Index fell 0.74% after the announcement and formed a bearish breakout. However, Gold’s upward price movement formed no breakout, and the momentum did not follow the traditional correlation magnitude. For this reason, indications remain in favour of a range-bound condition with a bearish sentiment.

The US 10-year treasury yield rose to 4.70%, up 78 points, and the US Dollar index is again on the rise. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day. This applies further pressure on Gold, particularly if the Dollar Index again rises above 101.00.

Most metals are trading lower this morning, but Silver is particularly trading with a large decline. If Gold prices fall below $4,034.65, sell signals are likely to strengthen, while the support level can be seen at $4,010.00.
 

HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart

USDJPY - The US Dollar Rises After a Sharp Fall on Wednesday

The worst-performing currency of the Asian session is the Japanese Yen while the best performing is the US Dollar. The US Dollar continues to remain under the influence of last night’s press conference. Chairman Kevin Warsh told markets that the committee has no soft inflation target and that many members support his position.

Three members of the FOMC voted to hike interest rates, while nine voted for a pause. However, almost 70% of the market believes the Federal Reserve will hike in September. Previously, a hike in September was deemed a 50/50 possibility. This morning’s oil prices rose to a weekly high, also adding further pressure on the Federal Reserve to start hiking.

This afternoon, the US will release its Core PCE Price Index and advance Gross Domestic Product. If these reports exceed expectations, they will likely support the US Dollar, especially if the PCE Price Index comes in higher than expected.

In addition to this, the Bank of Japan will also announce its rate decision tomorrow. If the central bank does not hike or convince markets that it can keep up with the global adjustments and inflation, the USD/JPY could potentially rise to 165.00.
 

Key Takeaways:

• The Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause increased concerns about persistent inflation and raised expectations of future interest rate hikes.
• Microsoft’s stronger-than-expected earnings gave the NASDAQ important support and helped prevent an even larger decline.
• Meta shares fell sharply after weak earnings and heavy AI spending caused free cash flow to drop significantly.
• Rising oil prices added to inflation concerns, putting further pressure on global stock markets and investor sentiment.
• The US Dollar recovered after an initial decline, while Gold remained volatile and continued to face bearish pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 31st July 2026.

Japan Intervenes to Boost the Yen.
 

The Japanese government intervened in the currency market for the fourth time this year to strengthen the Japanese Yen. The Yen rose 3.30% against the US Dollar, taking the exchange rate to its lowest level since mid-May. However, the Japanese Yen did not find any support from the Bank of Japan, which chose to keep interest rates at 1.00%. The currency also came under pressure from weaker economic and inflationary data made public yesterday afternoon.

Global stocks are rebounding on relief over unchanged interest rates and positive earnings. However, many negative price drivers remain, including bond yields, which are almost at a 20-year high, and expectations of up to three rate hikes this year.
 

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is trading at 160.40 after the Japanese government chose to boost the currency before the BOJ’s rate decision. The intervention took place in two phases, the first at the end of the Japanese session, and another larger intervention before the opening of the US session.

It is no secret that the Japanese government is looking to keep the USDJPY exchange rate below 160.00. Before the intervention, the price of USD/JPY was almost at 164.00 and, with no rate adjustment from the BOJ this morning may even have edged closer to 165.00. Any price above 160.00 is at risk of seeing the Japanese government intervene. According to reports, the US government is also in favour of the exchange rate weakening slightly and is assisting Japan in boosting the currency.

However, traders should note that interventions are known not to support currencies in the long-term. The Japanese government has taken similar currency operations on three occasions this year and many more since 2022. However, the Japanese Yen has continued to decline. This is due to the Bank of Japan lacking decisiveness over its monetary policy and rate hikes.

According to the Bank of Japan Governor, Mr Ueda, the central bank will ‘manage the policy to avoid falling behind the curve’. However, many economists and investors still deem this less hawkish than the Federal Reserve. Many analysts advise that the Japanese government may even continue to intervene further in the upcoming days.

Key levels for the Japanese Yen are 159.00, 160.88, 161.69, and 162.94.
 

HFM - USDJPY 30-Minute Chart

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 3rd August 2026.

US-Japan Yen Intervention and Iran Talks Reshape Global Markets.
 

Global markets began the week with major price movements across currencies, commodities, bonds, and stock indices as traders reacted to two significant developments: coordinated US-Japan intervention in the Japanese yen and renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran.

The intervention triggered a sharp recovery in the yen and increased volatility in USD/JPY, while hopes of a US-Iran agreement sent oil prices sharply lower. Falling energy prices also eased inflation concerns, supporting government bonds, gold, and US equity futures.

For CFD traders, these developments create both opportunities and risks across forex, commodities, and global indices.
 

US and Japan Join Forces to Support the Yen

Japan confirmed that it had intervened in the foreign exchange market in coordination with the US Treasury after the yen reached its weakest level against the dollar in approximately four decades.

This marked the first coordinated US-Japan intervention of its kind in 15 years and demonstrated that both governments are increasingly concerned about disorderly movements in the currency market.

Japan is estimated to have spent approximately $53 billion during one day of intervention, potentially making it the country’s largest single-day currency operation on record. The exact size of the US contribution has not been confirmed.

Following the joint action, the yen strengthened sharply, and USD/JPY briefly fell towards 155.23, its lowest level since early May. The pair had previously approached the 164 region during July.

Japanese and US officials have also warned that they are prepared to intervene again should excessive volatility return.
 

Why Did the US Reportedly Use Euros to Buy Yen?

One of the most unusual aspects of the intervention was the reported decision by the US Treasury to sell euros rather than US dollars to purchase yen.

Historically, the US has normally intervened directly through the dollar. However, selling dollars to buy yen could have created the impression that Washington was deliberately attempting to weaken its own currency.

Such a move could conflict with the US government’s long-standing support for a strong dollar and raise questions about whether the country was seeking a competitive advantage through exchange-rate manipulation. Using euros allowed the US to support the Japanese currency without creating the same immediate downward pressure on the dollar.
 

The euro is the world’s second most traded currency and accounted for approximately 29% of global foreign exchange turnover in the latest Bank for International Settlements survey. It is therefore liquid enough to be used in a large-scale intervention.

However, the strategy may still indirectly affect the dollar over time if the US Treasury later needs to rebalance its foreign exchange reserves.
 

Yen Short Positions Could Accelerate the Move

The intervention came at a particularly sensitive time for speculative positioning.

Before the operation, asset managers and leveraged funds had built their largest net short positions against the yen since 2024. Hedge funds’ bearish exposure was also close to its highest level since 2007.

This positioning increases the risk of a short squeeze.

When traders who have sold the yen begin closing their positions, they must buy the currency back. A large-scale unwinding of bearish positions could therefore amplify the yen’s recovery and push USD/JPY lower.

Some analysts believe USD/JPY could remain under pressure around the 155 area. A move towards 150 may also become possible if speculative positioning shifts from net short to net long yen exposure.

Nevertheless, intervention alone may not be enough to create a permanent change in direction.
 

Can the Yen Continue Strengthening?

The coordinated action has changed the short-term risk of betting against the yen, but longer-term fundamentals remain challenging.

Several factors continue to weigh on the Japanese currency:
 

• The interest rate gap between Japan and the United States remains wide.
• Concerns continue over Japan’s fiscal position and government spending plans.
• Global geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated.
• Investors are still assessing whether the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy further.

The Bank of Japan recently kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1%, although Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that policymakers would avoid falling behind inflationary developments.

Market expectations for a September rate increase have risen, with overnight swaps suggesting an estimated 46% probability of a move, compared with around 30% one week earlier.

However, if intervention successfully stabilises the currency, the Bank of Japan may feel less pressure to raise rates immediately.

For sustained yen appreciation, traders may need to see additional BOJ tightening, lower US Treasury yields, or greater confidence in Japan’s fiscal outlook.
 

Bond Markets Are Another Reason for US Involvement

The US decision to support Japan may not have been driven solely by foreign exchange concerns.

Japan is the largest foreign holder of US government debt. To finance a large-scale yen intervention, Japanese authorities could theoretically sell part of their US Treasury holdings.

Heavy Treasury sales could push US bond prices lower and yields higher at a time when markets are already concerned about inflation and government borrowing costs.

The Federal Reserve has a facility that allows Japan to borrow dollars using its Treasury holdings as collateral. Japan can reportedly access up to $60 billion per day through this mechanism without directly selling its US bonds.

This arrangement allows Japanese authorities to obtain liquidity while limiting the impact on Treasury yields.

The intervention therefore serves two purposes: supporting the yen and reducing the risk that Japan’s actions create instability in the US bond market.
 

Iran Talks Send Oil Prices Sharply Lower

Currency intervention was not the only major market driver.

US President Donald Trump announced that fresh negotiations with Iran would begin after cancelling a planned military attack. The decision followed requests from regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, to prioritise diplomacy.

The discussions are expected to focus partly on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.

The conflict and the disruption to shipping through the strait had created concerns about global oil supplies and pushed energy prices higher.

Following the announcement, Brent crude for October delivery fell as much as 7.3% to approximately $81.55 per barrel.

The decline came after oil prices had risen by more than 20% during July.

For oil CFD traders, the next significant catalyst will be whether negotiations produce a concrete agreement to reopen the shipping route. A successful deal could place further downward pressure on crude prices, while a breakdown in talks could quickly restore the geopolitical risk premium.
 

 

Lower Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns

The sharp fall in oil prices had an immediate impact beyond the energy market.

Higher fuel and transportation costs can contribute to broader inflation, potentially forcing central banks to maintain higher interest rates. A sustained decline in crude prices could therefore reduce some of the pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further.

US Treasuries moved higher following the oil decline, with the 10-year yield falling by around four basis points to approximately 4.69%.

The move came after the benchmark yield reached its highest level since January 2025 during the previous week.

Lower yields can support assets such as technology stocks and gold because they reduce borrowing costs and lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
 

Gold Rises Despite Reduced Geopolitical Risk

Gold advanced towards the $4,070 region as traders assessed the potential impact of lower oil prices on inflation and US monetary policy.

Normally, easing geopolitical tensions can reduce demand for traditional safe-haven assets. However, the decline in energy prices also reduced expectations that persistent inflation would force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively.

This created a more supportive interest rate environment for bullion.

Gold remains more than 20% below the levels recorded before the US-Iran conflict began, as rising energy prices and higher bond yields had previously weighed on the precious metal.

The next direction for gold is likely to depend on three main factors:
 

• The outcome of the US-Iran negotiations.
• Changes in Treasury yields.
• Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September decision.

If diplomacy succeeds and yields continue falling, gold could receive support from a less restrictive interest rate outlook. However, a breakdown in talks could produce a more complicated reaction, potentially increasing safe-haven demand while also reviving inflation concerns.
 

Stock Markets React to Lower Oil and AI Volatility

US and European equity futures moved higher as falling oil prices improved market sentiment.

NASDAQ 100 futures and European stock futures advanced by approximately 0.8%, supported by lower inflation concerns and declining bond yields.

Technology stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations because their valuations often depend heavily on future earnings. Lower yields generally increase the present value of those expected earnings.

Asian stock markets produced a more mixed performance.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index fell by more than 5%, reversing part of the previous session’s record 18% rally. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix declined by approximately 8%, contributing to a broader fall in regional semiconductor stocks.

The Nikkei 225 also moved lower as the stronger yen created pressure for Japanese exporters. A stronger domestic currency can reduce the value of overseas earnings when converted back into yen and make Japanese products more expensive internationally.

Meanwhile, Chinese technology shares received some support from renewed enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence developments.
 

What Should Traders Watch Next?

The immediate market outlook will depend on several interconnected developments.

In forex markets, traders will closely monitor whether USD/JPY can remain above the 155 area and whether authorities conduct another round of intervention. Sudden price movements remain possible because officials have clearly indicated that they are willing to act again.

EUR/JPY may also experience increased volatility because the US reportedly used euros during the intervention. EUR/USD could become relevant if reserve rebalancing creates additional euro or dollar flows.

In commodities, the focus will remain on the US-Iran negotiations and any announcement concerning the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets may remain highly sensitive to headlines, with failed talks potentially reversing the latest decline.

Gold traders should monitor the relationship between crude prices, inflation expectations, and Treasury yields. Lower yields may support bullion even if geopolitical tensions ease.

For equity traders, falling energy costs could provide relief for consumer and technology sectors. However, the stronger yen may continue to weigh on Japanese exporters, while volatility in semiconductor stocks remains a major risk for the NASDAQ and Asian indices.
 

Key Market Takeaways

The US and Japan have demonstrated that they are prepared to take significant action to prevent excessive yen weakness.

The intervention may trigger further short covering and keep USD/JPY volatile, but sustained yen strength will probably require support from monetary policy and economic fundamentals.

At the same time, renewed US-Iran diplomacy has reduced immediate concerns about oil supplies, sending crude prices sharply lower and easing inflation fears.

These developments have created a cross-asset reaction: the yen strengthened, oil declined, government bonds rose, gold advanced, and US equity futures moved higher.

For CFD traders, the market remains highly headline-driven. Currency intervention and geopolitical negotiations can trigger sudden price gaps, rapid reversals, and increased spreads. Careful risk management remains essential while markets assess whether these developments represent lasting changes or only temporary relief.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 4th August 2026.

Global Stocks Near Records as Yen and Oil Stay Volatile | Eyes on US Jobs7.
 

Global stock markets are trading close to record levels after a technology-led rebound on Wall Street improved investor sentiment following a highly volatile month.
However, the market outlook remains sensitive to several major developments. Traders are closely monitoring the impact of coordinated US-Japan intervention in the currency market, renewed volatility in oil prices, geopolitical tensions involving Iran, and the upcoming US employment report.
Technology earnings are also returning to the spotlight as investors assess whether the substantial investment directed towards artificial intelligence is beginning to generate stronger revenue and profits.

Global Stock Markets Remain Near Record Highs

The MSCI All Country World Index remained close to 1,130, slightly below its record high of 1,136.59.
US stocks strengthened during Monday’s session, led by large technology companies. The rally moved the S&P 500 closer to its all-time high, while index futures subsequently climbed to record territory.
NASDAQ 100 futures also rose approximately 0.6%, indicating that demand for technology stocks remained positive heading into Tuesday’s trading session.
European stock futures pointed towards a stronger opening, although Asian markets delivered a more mixed performance.
The latest recovery follows a turbulent period for the technology sector. Investors have increasingly questioned whether the billions of dollars being spent on artificial intelligence infrastructure will produce sufficient growth and profitability.
Until recently, much of the AI-related investment interest had focused on semiconductor producers, data centre providers, and other companies supplying the infrastructure required to develop artificial intelligence.
Attention may now be shifting towards businesses that can use AI to improve their products, reduce costs, or increase earnings.
This change could become an important theme for technology markets. Investors may increasingly distinguish between companies simply spending heavily on AI and those demonstrating measurable financial returns from that investment.
 

 

Palantir Rallies After Raising Its Forecast

Palantir Technologies gained approximately 14% in extended trading after the company raised its financial forecasts.
The strong reaction suggests that investors remain willing to reward companies that can demonstrate clear revenue growth linked to artificial intelligence.
The announcement also supported broader optimism towards technology stocks following Monday’s strong Wall Street session. A gauge of major technology companies recorded its best daily performance since March, while semiconductor shares rose by approximately 1%.
Nevertheless, volatility remains elevated.
Technology-focused investment funds have experienced significant fluctuations as expectations surrounding AI spending, valuations, and future profitability continue to change.
Amazon shares fell approximately 1.6% in post-market trading after Chairman Jeff Bezos disclosed plans to sell shares. The decline followed a three-day rally that had lifted Amazon’s market value to around $3 trillion.

SpaceX Earnings Enter the Spotlight

Another major event for technology investors is the first earnings report from SpaceX as a publicly traded company.
The report could test investor demand for highly valued technology and aerospace businesses, particularly after the recent volatility in AI-related shares.
Markets will be watching SpaceX’s revenue, profitability, capital expenditure, and forward guidance. Investors may also focus on the performance of its launch operations and satellite-related businesses.
The earnings report comes before a potentially significant increase in the company’s available share supply. As much as $116 billion in stock could become eligible for sale for the first time next month.
Large share unlocks can affect market prices if early investors, employees, or other shareholders decide to sell part of their holdings.

Yen Weakens After Historic US-Japan Intervention

The Japanese yen declined around 0.3% during the Asian session, trading close to 157.70 against the US dollar.
The pullback followed a gain of more than 4% over the previous four trading days after the United States and Japan carried out coordinated yen-buying intervention.
The operation represented the first coordinated intervention of its kind since 1998 and pushed the yen sharply higher from a four-decade low near 164 per dollar.
The intervention has now shifted market attention towards the 155 level in USD/JPY.
 

 

Why USD/JPY at 155 Is Important

The 155 level is viewed as an important test of whether the yen’s recovery can develop into a more sustained trend.
Previous Japanese intervention in April and May briefly pushed USD/JPY towards this area. However, the pair subsequently recovered, leading traders to question whether direct intervention can create lasting currency strength without broader changes in monetary and fiscal policy.
A decisive move below 155 could alter market behaviour.
Traders who previously bought USD/JPY during declines may become more cautious, while Japanese exporters could increase their dollar sales as the currency pair moves outside its recent trading range.
The yen’s recovery could also accelerate because of speculative positioning.
Asset managers and leveraged funds reportedly hold their largest net short yen positions since 2024. If USD/JPY falls below 155, some investors may be forced to reduce these positions by purchasing yen.
This type of short squeeze could potentially push USD/JPY towards 152.
The currency pair has already moved below its 200-day moving average near 158 for the first time since October, adding further technical significance to the recent decline.

Can the Yen Maintain Its Recovery?

Despite the intervention, some analysts remain cautious about the yen’s longer-term outlook.
The US dollar continues to offer a considerable yield advantage over the Japanese currency. That advantage could widen further if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while the Bank of Japan continues to tighten policy gradually.
Some strategists expect investors to resume using the yen as a funding currency once the threat of further intervention decreases. Under this scenario, USD/JPY could eventually recover towards the 160-162 region.
Market activity already indicates that some traders are taking profits following the intervention-driven move.
For the yen to achieve a more sustainable recovery, investors may need stronger evidence that Japan’s broader policy direction is changing. This could include faster interest rate increases from the Bank of Japan, greater fiscal discipline, and continued coordination between Japanese and US policymakers.

Oil Rebounds as US-Iran Uncertainty Continues

Oil prices rose after recording their largest daily decline in a week.
Brent crude traded near $85 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate moved above $81. The rebound followed a decline of almost 5% during Monday’s session.
The latest price movement reflects uncertainty surrounding negotiations involving the United States and Iran.
US President Donald Trump described his latest diplomatic offer as Iran’s ‘last chance’ and said he expected the Strait of Hormuz to reopen fully.
Iran denied that direct negotiations with the United States were taking place. However, Tehran said discussions with Oman regarding the movement of ships through the Strait were progressing.
The conflicting statements highlight the uncertainty surrounding diplomatic efforts.
Oil prices could continue to react sharply to any indication of military escalation, successful negotiations, or improved shipping conditions.

Strait of Hormuz Remains a Major Market Risk

Commodity flows through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed considerably.
Before the conflict, the Strait handled approximately one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Any prolonged disruption could reduce global supply and place upward pressure on energy prices.
Concerns increased after a cargo vessel northeast of Al Khasab, Oman, reported being struck by an unidentified projectile.
Meanwhile, activity increased at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu export terminal on the Red Sea. The port provides an alternative route that allows some Saudi oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
However, security risks also remain present in the Red Sea, where vessels have faced threats near the Bab El-Mandeb shipping route.
Additional supply risks are emerging from the war in Ukraine. Refineries, tankers, pipelines, and other Russian oil infrastructure were reportedly targeted at least 30 times during July, the second-highest monthly total since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022.
Together, these developments indicate that oil prices may remain volatile even if diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran continue.

Treasury Yields Rise as Oil Prices Recover

US Treasury prices gave back part of Monday’s gains as oil prices rebounded.
The 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately two basis points to 4.69%.
Energy prices can influence government bond markets because higher oil costs may contribute to inflation. If inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve may have less flexibility to lower interest rates.
Alternatively, a sustained decline in oil prices could reduce inflationary pressure and support expectations of less restrictive monetary policy.
This relationship means that developments in the Middle East may continue to influence currencies, bonds, and equities, as well as the energy market.

US Employment Data Becomes the Next Major Test

Investors are now preparing for several US employment reports, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release expected to be the most important economic event of the week.
The report could provide clearer evidence regarding the strength of the US labour market and the likely direction of Federal Reserve policy.
Stronger-than-expected job creation could increase expectations that interest rates will remain high or rise further. This could support the US dollar and Treasury yields, but create pressure on interest rate-sensitive stocks.
Weaker employment growth could reduce rate expectations, although an unexpectedly sharp slowdown might also raise concerns about the economic outlook.
Recent manufacturing data showed that US factory activity expanded in July at its fastest pace in more than four years. Production increased strongly, while companies also added workers.
The figures suggest that parts of the US economy remain resilient heading into the latest employment report.

What Should Traders Watch Next?

Market sentiment remains constructive, with global equities trading close to record levels and technology shares attracting renewed demand.
However, several developments could determine whether the rally continues.
For stock traders, earnings growth and evidence of financial returns from AI investment may become increasingly important. For currency traders, the 155 level in USD/JPY represents a key technical and policy-related threshold.
Oil traders will continue monitoring diplomatic developments involving the United States and Iran, as well as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Bond and US dollar traders will focus on Friday’s employment report and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.
With equities near record highs, oil prices reacting to geopolitical headlines, and the yen remaining sensitive to official intervention, volatility may remain elevated across several major markets.
Traders should continue following economic data, central bank expectations, and geopolitical developments while applying appropriate risk management measures.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

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