HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 23rd March 2026.

How Did the Fed Prompt Weaker Stocks and a Stronger US Dollar?
 

The US is attempting to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by escalating the conflict with a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran. President Trump himself made the announcement that Iran has two-days to open the Strait of Hormuz, but the exact expiry is not known. According to the report, the ultimatum will expire at some point today.

If they did not comply, the US would attack Iran’s energy infrastructure, starting with power plants. Analysts see this as a major escalation in the conflict which is likely to trigger a stronger retaliation from Iran. Security and defence analysts, such as Michael Clarke, advise investors that if the US does escalate, Iran will likely increase its attacks on oil infrastructure across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. How are markets reacting?
 

Crude Oil - Trump’s Ultimatum Pushes Oil Prices Higher

 

HFM - Crude Oil Daily Chart

Towards the end of last week, oil prices were attempting to rise as investors grew concerned about significant damage to energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region. These concerns stemmed from the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Even though the asset did not rise to new highs, the price saw limited downward price movement and generally remained elevated.

However, Crude oil prices are finding momentum this morning due to the new US ultimatum to Iran. Further supporting the bullish momentum, Qatari officials told journalists that the country had lost 17% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity. They added that restoring this capacity could take up to five years. In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the need for a ground operation. This could further escalate geopolitical tensions.

The US has tried various moves attempting to bring oil prices down, such as escorting tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz. The latest attempt was the White House’s willingness to partially lift sanctions on oil produced in the Islamic Republic. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that this decision could be made within the next three to four days.

For this reason, volatility continues, with many analysts advising the price of Crude Oil could remain high for some years. In terms of technical analysis, the price is forming an ascending triangle, which points toward higher prices. In addition to this, on smaller timeframes, the price continues to form higher highs and trade above major moving averages.
 

XAUUSD (GOLD) - Middle East Countries Sell Some Gold Reserves

Gold had its worst week in almost 40 years with the asset declining for four consecutive days, totalling more than 17%. Gold prices are declining for three main reasons. The first reason is that investors believe global central banks will increase interest rates over the next 12-months, which would make the commodity less attractive.

Another factor weighing on Gold prices is that several Middle Eastern countries are selling part of their Gold reserves to offset lost income from oil sales. By selling Gold reserves, these countries are supporting their fiscal needs. The third reason for the downward pressure is related to Gold’s high price. According to analysts such as Jefferies, markets are unwilling to buy Gold at such high prices in these weak market conditions. Although Gold is a safe-haven asset and a well-known hedge against inflation, its high price makes it less attractive.
 

HFM - Gold Daily Chart

Gold prices trade at their lowest level since mid-November 2025. Support levels can be seen for the commodity at $3,885, however, the main psychological price for investors remains $4,000. If the US Dollar Index does not rise above 100.00, the possibility of Gold rebounding increases.
 

Key Takeaway:

• Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oil prices are rising as traders price in higher supply disruption risks.
• Qatar’s LNG capacity loss adds to fears of prolonged energy shortages.
• Gold remains under pressure from rate expectations, reserve sales, and high prices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 24th March 2026.

Markets Rebound on De-Escalation Hopes, but Risks Remain.
 

On Monday, the stock market saw a strong rebound while the US Dollar and oil fell near a two-week low. This price action suggests that risk appetite and overall market sentiment are improving. However, traders are still assessing whether this recovery has enough momentum to continue in the coming sessions.

The trend change, which took place during the middle of the European session, was primarily due to the US. More specifically, Trump told journalists that the ‘ultimatum’ he previously mentioned would not proceed and that the conflict will most likely end with negotiations.

This comment alone quickly changed market expectations. Traders previously were pricing in a higher probability of escalation, which drove energy prices higher and equities lower. Once the rhetoric softened, markets began to unwind those positions for two reasons. The ultimatum which was seen as a serious escalation would not hold and that there is a greater chance of ending the conflict. As a result:
 

• Oil pulled back as immediate supply disruption fears eased, falling 14% in 30-minutes.
• The US Dollar weakened as safe-haven demand declined, Falling to a two-week low.
• The NASDAQ rose 3.70% before losing momentum and moving sideways.

However, the move appears driven more by sentiment than confirmed developments. Markets are now highly sensitive to headlines, meaning any shift back towards escalation could quickly reverse this trend.
 

De-Escalation or Fake News?

In addition to these comments from White House officials, the US also announced it would not attack Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days.
The decision was reportedly linked to constructive discussions with the leadership of the Islamic Republic. These talks were said to be aimed at easing the armed conflict. At the same time, several media outlets, including Iran’s Tasnim and Fars, cited their own sources. They said there is effectively no active negotiation channel with the United States. According to these reports, the pause in strikes reflects growing pressure from financial markets. It also reflects rising risks linked to US debt instruments and Western financial systems.

Official sources in Tehran have repeatedly stated that the Islamic Republic will continue its defensive strategy until it achieves what it considers a sufficient level of deterrence, according to regional media reports. In addition to this, Iran also advised that it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed even after the conflict has ended. For this reason, even after the recent comments and attempts to de-escalate, risks for the broader economy and investments remain.
 

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ, which had been trading 10% lower than its recent highs, was quick to rebound after the comments from the US administration. The NASDAQ rose 3.70% and still remains 2.75% higher than yesterday’s lows. Of the 100 stocks within the NASDAQ, 81 stocks rose on Monday while 19 stocks continued to decline. This analysis of the individual components verifies the upward price movement, as does the VIX, which fell almost 5%.

Nonetheless, the price of the VIX on a weekly basis is still trading almost 18% higher, and technical analysis continues to signal stress levels. Regardless of the upward price movement on Monday, the price remains below the 75-bar EMA and below the VWAP.

In order for the price to be able to obtain further buy signals in the short term, it would need to rise above $24,267.30. Above this level would push the price above the key moving averages and increase the possibility of a higher high. However, if the price falls below $24,117.75, the possibility of a buy signal would weaken.


 

HFM - NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart

 

US Dollar Declines on Monday

The best performing currency of the day remains the US Dollar despite the strong decline the day before. The price of the US Dollar Index opened the day with a bullish price gap measuring 0.22% and is trading above the 200-bar SMA on the 5-minute timeframe. However, similar to the NASDAQ, on larger timeframes the price is trading below key moving averages.

However, the US Dollar has been trading within an upward trend throughout most of 2026 and is also supported by fundamental factors. If the price of the Index rises above 99.23, the price will form a breakout indicating an upward correction.


 

HFM - US Dollar Index 15-Minute Chart

The GBP, NZD, and AUD are the weakest performing currencies of the day while the US Dollar and CAD are the best performing.

Key Takeaways:

• Stocks rebounded strongly after Trump signalled the ultimatum would not proceed and negotiations were more likely.
• Oil dropped sharply as traders reduced fears of immediate supply disruptions and broader conflict escalation.
• The US Dollar weakened as safe-haven demand faded and overall market risk appetite improved.
• The rebound appears sentiment-driven, so any renewed escalation could quickly reverse the move.
• Despite Monday’s recovery, Iran-related risks still threaten the broader economy, market stability, and investor confidence.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 25th March 2026.

Middle East De-Escalation Hopes Push Stocks Higher as Oil Prices Fall.
 

 

Markets Shift as Diplomacy Eases Immediate Fears

Global markets are showing signs of relief as diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran begin to gain traction. After weeks of heightened volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, investors are starting to price in the possibility of a near-term de-escalation.

Equity markets have moved higher, while oil prices have retreated from recent highs, reflecting a shift in sentiment from fear-driven positioning toward cautious optimism.

However, beneath the surface, the situation remains far from resolved.
 

Oil Prices Fall as Risk Premium Is Reduced

Crude oil has been at the centre of recent market volatility, acting as the primary barometer of geopolitical risk. As reports emerged of a proposed 15-point plan aimed at ending the conflict, alongside discussions of a potential temporary ceasefire, traders began unwinding positions that had priced in prolonged disruption.

Brent crude fell toward the $97 level, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $89 per barrel. This move reflects a partial removal of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up during the escalation phase. However, the decline should not be interpreted as a full normalisation of market conditions.

The Strait of Hormuz Remains the Key Variable

Despite the pullback in oil prices, a critical risk factor remains unresolved: the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway is responsible for a significant share of global oil and gas flows, and current restrictions on tanker movement continue to disrupt supply chains. Even partial limitations can have an outsized impact on pricing, particularly in a market already sensitive to geopolitical developments.

For traders, the status of the strait is arguably more important than diplomatic headlines. A confirmed reopening would reinforce the current risk-on sentiment, while further restrictions could quickly reverse recent price declines.
 

Equities Gain as Inflation Concerns Ease

Equity markets have responded positively to the drop in oil prices, with futures linked to the S&P 500 moving higher. Lower energy costs help ease inflationary pressures, which in turn can reduce expectations for further monetary tightening.

This dynamic has supported a broader risk-on environment, with investors rotating back into equities as worst-case scenarios appear less likely in the short term.

However, the sustainability of this move depends heavily on whether diplomatic progress translates into tangible outcomes.
 

 

Geopolitical Landscape Remains Fragile

While market sentiment has improved, developments on the ground suggest that risks remain elevated. Military activity between Iran and Israel continues, and Tehran has shown limited willingness to engage in direct ceasefire negotiations.

At the same time, Iran has renewed calls for a regional security alliance excluding the United States and Israel. This proposal highlights a broader strategic shift toward regional realignment and underscores the challenges of achieving a coordinated de-escalation.

Such dynamics point to a more fragmented geopolitical environment, which could sustain volatility in global markets over the medium term.

A Headline-Driven Environment for Traders

The current market environment is highly reactive, with price action driven largely by headlines rather than confirmed developments. Oil, in particular, has become a real-time gauge of geopolitical sentiment, while equities are responding to shifts in inflation expectations and risk appetite.

For traders and investors, this creates both opportunities and risks.

Short-term moves may be sharp and unpredictable, requiring disciplined risk management and a focus on key catalysts, including:

• Updates on diplomatic negotiations
• Developments in the Strait of Hormuz
• Escalation or de-escalation in military activity

Conclusion: Optimism Builds, but Risks Persist

Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of de-escalation, leading to a rally in equities and a pullback in oil prices. However, the underlying risks have not disappeared.

The path forward will depend on whether diplomatic efforts translate into concrete actions, particularly regarding the reopening of critical energy routes and a reduction in military tensions.

Until then, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the market landscape.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.