HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[AllForexnews]

Date: 25th April 2025.

Trade Tensions Hurt Confidence Across Europe
 

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The latest European confidence indicators highlighted the growing impact of global trade tensions on investor sentiment, particularly within the Eurozone. According to recent surveys, investor confidence has been notably dented, with the services sector showing greater weakness compared to manufacturing. This may be due to U.S. efforts to front-load imports ahead of potential tariff hikes.

Meanwhile, diverging fiscal policies between the UK and the Eurozone have further widened economic gaps. The UK faces limited fiscal flexibility and mounting pressure to stimulate domestic demand, complicating its response to external shocks.
 

German ZEW Investor Confidence Plummets

Germany's ZEW investor sentiment index plunged in April following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. The index fell by a staggering 65.6 points to -14.0, reflecting growing pessimism about the economic outlook. While recent political shifts offered short-term relief to market sentiment, uncertainty remains elevated, suggesting this key forward-looking indicator may stay in negative territory.
 

Eurozone PMI and Ifo Data Show Mixed Signals

Surprisingly, the Eurozone PMI and Germany’s Ifo business climate report showed resilience. Although the composite PMI dropped to a four-month low of 50.1—indicating stagnation rather than contraction—the weakness was concentrated in the services sector. The services PMI fell to 49.7, ending a five-month expansion streak.

Germany’s Ifo survey showed improvements in construction and business sentiment, driven by a rise in the current conditions index. The overall business climate index rose to 86.9 in April, up from 86.7 in March, defying expectations of a decline.

Trade Boost May Be Temporary as Risks Persist
Trade data from February revealed a 22.4% year-over-year jump in Eurozone exports to the U.S., with Ireland’s pharmaceutical-heavy exports surging by 200%. S&P Global noted signs of stockpiling and unplanned orders from U.S. clients trying to stay ahead of tariffs.

However, analysts warn this boost may be short-lived. As tariffs bite and the euro strengthens, European exports risk becoming less competitive. Despite hopes that EU goods could benefit from U.S.-China trade disputes, long-term gains are uncertain. If U.S. firms start to run down inventories, demand may soften.

Germany and EU Infrastructure Investment to Counter Trade Headwinds
Germany’s decision to raise borrowing for infrastructure and defense, alongside EU-wide investment plans, aims to cushion the blow from external shocks. Sentiment in the German construction sector has already improved, according to the Ifo report. While large-scale spending will take time to materialize, early signs show progress in the defense sector.
 

UK PMI Data Signals Growing Economic Challenges
Across the Channel, the UK economy is facing multiple headwinds. Government finances are strained, and recent fiscal data missed expectations. Although the UK may enjoy lower tariffs post-Brexit, its open economy is more vulnerable to global slowdowns.

Rising labor costs, due to higher National Insurance contributions and minimum wage hikes, have added pressure. The latest S&P Global UK Composite Output Index dropped sharply to 48.2 in April from 51.5, with the Services PMI falling to 48.9—a 27-month low. Manufacturing Output PMI also fell to 44.0, the weakest since mid-2021.

S&P Global attributed this decline to weakened client confidence and the impact of U.S. tariffs. Business outlooks have dimmed, with optimism at its lowest since October 2022. Rising cost burdens have prompted employment cuts, and inflationary pressures persist, despite easing energy prices.

UK Inflation and Rate Outlook: BoE Faces Tough Decisions
The CBI industrial trends survey painted a similarly cautious picture. Although total orders slightly improved, export orders deteriorated. Selling price expectations also rose, reflecting cost pressures.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized risks to growth and warned about the dangers of global economic fragmentation. While markets are pricing in another BoE rate cut, rising wage-driven inflation may keep UK interest rates elevated relative to the Eurozone.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

[b]Date: 28th April 2025.[/b]

 

[b]Can a Busy Week For the USD Revive The Dollar?[/b]

 

 

The first week of May for the US Dollar is likely to be the most important within the whole month. During this week, the US will confirm its NFP employment data, job openings, PCE Inflation, US company earnings and the Gross Domestic Product. The US Dollar has been the worst performing currency in 2025, but can this week’s releases change its performance?

 

Currency Market

In April, the best performing currencies are the Swiss Franc, Euro and Japanese due to their safe haven nature and a known alternative to the Dollar. The worst-performing currencies have been both the US Dollar and Australian Dollar. However, the US Dollar had slightly improved during the previous week meaning traders need to be cautious as to if the USD may retrace slightly higher.

 

AUDUSD

 

The performance of the US Dollar is likely to continue to depend primarily on the US trade policy. According to experts, over the past week, investor sentiment has improved but for this to continue the news will need to provide a positive tone.

 

 

Lastly, the Japanese Yen could see volatility in either direction as the Bank of Japan is due to announce its rate decision later this week. Analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged but Governor Ueda is likely to provide indications of future rate hikes.

 

 

Australian Dollar and Australian Elections

The main developments which will influence the dynamics of the Australian Dollar is the Consumer Price Index (inflation) on Wednesday, Retail Sales and the elections over the weekend. The Australian Dollar Index is trading 1.85% higher over the past month. However, the AUD is still underperforming compared to other currencies. The AUDUSD has struggled to cross above the 0.64069 resistance level over the past month.

 

 

The Australian Dollar has been struggling over the past month as economists believe the inflation rate will continue to fall close to the 2.0% target. Current expectations are that the inflation rate will fall from 2.4% to 2.3%. Economists say the likelihood of an interest rate cut in May is diminishing but was previously the main expectation. The Australian Dollar has recovered from the sharp decline that had triggered urgent calls for action from the Reserve Bank.

 

 

However, if the US Dollar is to increase in value traders may take into consideration two opinions. The first is to trade the AUDUSD as the Australian Dollar is the worst-performing currency or the USDCHF as the Swiss Franc is the best-performing currency and can more easily give up recent gains.

 

 

US Dollar and Upcoming Releases

The US Dollar was 1.65% after starting the previous week on a negative price gap. However, even with the upward price movement, the US Dollar Index remains relatively cheap and still trades at its lowest since July 2024. Gold also declines during Monday’s Asian Session which is another positive sign for the USD. The US will release the following data in the upcoming days:

 

 

• JOLTS Job Opening - Tomorrow
• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - Wednesday
• US GDP - Wednesday
• Employment Cost Index - Wednesday
• Core PCE Price Index - Wednesday
• Weekly Unemployment Claims - Thursday
• ISM Manufacturing PMI - Thursday
• NFP Employment Change and Unemployment Rate - Friday

A big factor this week will continue to be the US Trade Negotiations. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced that negotiations between Washington and Beijing had already begun. However, Chinese officials denied that any talks were underway, fueling traders' uncertainty and dampening appetite for riskier assets. Nonetheless, the tone has been positive as both Trump and China advise they can make a trade agreement. China has already advised some goods will see tariffs lowered as a show of good faith.

 

 

Meanwhile, Trump signed an executive order to start a deep-sea mining initiative aimed at countering China’s dominance in certain commodities. The US plans to boost domestic production of nickel, copper, and rare earth elements.

 

 

Currently, the Federal Reserve is reluctant to cut interest rates but this can quickly change if employment data deteriorates. If the data this week beats expectations, the Fed is likely to stick to this tone and the US Dollar can gain bullish momentum. However, if this data reads weaker than the projections, the confidence in the Dollar can deteriorate and the Fed may be pressured to cut interest rates further pressuring the currency.

 

 

Key Takeaway Points:

• This week’s major US data releases could decide whether the US Dollar rebounds or continues to lag.
• Safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc and Yen remain stronger, but risks of losing momentum increase.
• The Australian Dollar faces pressure from slowing inflation, soft retail sales, and upcoming elections.
• Stronger US data and positive trade negotiations could fuel a Dollar recovery; weak data may trigger Fed rate cut fears.

[b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b]

 

[b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b]

Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE!

 

[url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url]

 

[b]Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets[/b]

 

[b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

[b]Date: 29th April 2025.[/b]

 

[b]NASDAQ Climbs Higher as Markets Brace for Key Earnings and Jobs Data![/b]

 

 

The NASDAQ rose to a 4-week high as investors get ready for a crucial week ahead. The NASDAQ has earned back 46% of the price lost during the stock market crash seen in March and April. However, what is needed for the correction to continue? This week can be the deciding factor.

 

 

NASDAQ - Quarterly Earnings Report

Over a period of 48 hours, the NASDAQ will see 5 significant companies release their earnings report for the first quarter of 2025. The NASDAQ’s exposure as an index is exactly 27% towards these companies making the 48-hour crucial for the index. These 5 companies include the following:

• Microsoft: Wednesday after market close - Up 7.61% over the past 5 days
• Meta: Wednesday after market close - 11.84% over the past 5 days
• Qualcomm: Wednesday after market close - 7.96% over the past 5 days
• Apple: Thursday after market close - 7.07% over the past 5 days
• Amazon: Thursday after market close - 10.45% over the past 5 days

The price movement of the 5 stocks over the past week has been relatively positive, but this is also partially due to the improvements in investor sentiment. Therefore, it is not necessarily solely due to the upcoming earnings reports. Out of the 5 stocks, analysts expect only Microsoft and Meta to see higher earnings and revenue compared to the previous quarter. However, the key concern for investors is that the actual figures either exceed or at least match the projections.

 

If the companies beat the expectations, investors are likely to witness the bullish momentum continue and potentially gain speed. However, if the companies fail to do so, the index can quickly correct itself, moving back down. Another factor which the market will be laser-focused on is the comments from the board of directors on current concerns such as a possible recession and the trade policy. If the comments provide a positive tone and a sense of hope, the risk appetite can improve and support stocks across the board.

 

NASDAQ - Employment To Play A Key Role!

As recession fears grow and economists raise the likelihood of a downturn to 30–50%, attention shifts to the employment sector. This week will be key for employment as the US will confirm the number of new job vacancies, the unemployment rate and new confirmed employment.

 

On occasions, stronger employment data can pressure the stock market as it's likely to keep interest rates high. However, under the current circumstances, a positive release from all US news potential may support the NASDAQ. Analysts expect the Unemployment Rate and JOLTS Job Opening figures to be similar to the previous month. However, the NFP Employment Change may dip!

 

In addition to the employment data and earnings reports, investors will also monitor and analyse the Advanced Quarterly GDP and Core PCE Price Index. Currently, analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. If the index indeed falls to this level, volatility may be limited with a slight bullish bias. However, if the figure falls below 2.6% the NASDAQ potentially can increase further.

 

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ is trading above the trendlines on a 2-hour timeframe and above the Volume-Weighted Average for the day. These two factors indicate a bullish bias and bullish signals are likely to strengthen if the price rises above $19,496.31 according to price action. However, if the price falls below $19,357.30, the NASDAQ’s outlook will quickly change.

 

Traders should note that this week’s price movement will be dependent on the developments from earnings, trade policy and the employment sector.

 

 

Key Takeaway Points:

• Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Apple, and Amazon will report earnings within 48 hours, and with a combined 27% index weight, their results could significantly impact the market's direction.
• Recent stock gains suggest that investor sentiment is improving. However, sustained bullish momentum will depend on whether these companies meet or exceed earnings expectations and provide optimistic guidance.
• Investors will also closely watch US employment data, GDP figures, and the Core PCE Price Index. A drop in inflation below 2.6% could potentially provide additional support for the NASDAQ.
• Technically, the NASDAQ maintains a bullish outlook while trading above key trendlines, but a move below $19,357.30 could signal a shift toward a bearish trend.

[b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b]

 

[b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b]

Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE!

 

[url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url]

 

[b]Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets[/b]

 

[b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[AllForexnews]

[b]Date: 30th April 2025.[/b]

 

[b]JPY in Focus: BOJ Decision and Trade Tensions Set the Stage[/b]

 

 

Markets in Japan reopen after a bank holiday and investors again turn their attention to the Japanese Yen. The Japanese Yen along with the Euro and Swiss Franc has been the best-performing currency in 2025 so far. However, tariffs and the global trade policy make further rate hikes uncertain ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Japan press conference.

 

Bank of Japan and the JPY

The primary reason for the bullish performance of the Japanese Yen this year is the BOJ’s rate hikes and the currency's safe-haven nature. Previously economists' projections for the Bank Of Japan was for the regulator to increase interest rates to 1.00% in 2025. However, the uncertainties within the market surrounding the trade policy and a possible recession puts the hawkish path at risk.

 

The Bank of Japan is scheduled to meet tomorrow during the Asian session. The regulator’s interest rates are likely to remain the same, but the guidance for the upcoming months will be key.

 

The latest Reuters Tankan survey for April showed improved sentiment within the manufacturing sector. However, consumer confidence remains subdued, largely due to stalled trade negotiations with the US and continued uncertainty in bilateral relations, factors that complicate long-term economic assessments.

 

Given these conditions, the Bank of Japan is expected to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach. However, it may also signal the possibility of further monetary tightening in the second half of the year. Inflation has remained above the 2.0% target for nearly three years, with recent data suggesting that the trend is set to persist.

 

In March, the Core Consumer Price Index accelerated, driven by sustained increases in food prices. Meanwhile, the CPI excluding fresh food and energy rose to 2.9%, its highest level in a year, highlighting persistent underlying price pressures.

 

The US Trade Policy

Currently, there seems to be a clear correlation between the trade policy and the USDJPY, similar to the EURUSD. As tensions escalate, investors reduce their exposure to the US Dollar in favour of the Japanese Yen, Euro and Swiss Franc. However, whether the ‘trade conflict’ will indeed escalate or not cannot be certain.

 

For the JPY to maintain its bullish path, an escalation in tensions or rate hikes potentially will be necessary. Before President Trump announced the tariffs on April 2nd, the Bank of Japan was planning at least 2 further 0.25% hikes. Investors will closely scrutinize the BoJ’s Governor’s comments regarding future hikes.

 

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest in May according to the Chicago Exchange. A rate cut in May can become a possibility if this week shows a sudden dip in the employment sector. According to the Chicago Exchange, there is a 60% chance of a 0.25% cut on May 7th and a 90% chance for July 30th if a cut is not done in May.

 

USDJPY - Technical Analysis

 

USDJPY 15-Minute Chart

 

The USDJPY trades within range-bound trading conditions neither seeing a clear breakout below or above the key levels. The exchange rate also trades very close to the average price of the past 2-weeks. However, this is likely to change as the US releases further employment data today and Friday as well as tomorrow’s Bank of Japan rate decision and press conference.

 

If the price of the USDJPY declines below the support level at 141.970 sell signals are likely to strengthen as long as the price does not obtain an oversold indication on oscillators. On the other hand, if the USDJPY rises above the resistance level at 142.752, buy signals can strengthen.

 

Key Takeaway Levels:

1. The Japanese Yen will remain strong in 2025, but trade tensions and recession risks cloud further rate hikes. Previously rate hikes were one of the key factors supporting the Japanese Yen.
2. The Bank of Japan is likely to hold rates tomorrow, with guidance being the key market focus.
3. Inflation in Japan remains above target, with core CPI hitting 2.9%—the highest in a year.
4. USDJPY trades in a tight range; key breakout levels are 141.970 (support) and 142.752 (resistance).

[b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b]

 

[b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b]

Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE!

 

[url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url]

 

[b]Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets[/b]

 

[b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.