Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Key options levels: July 18-24

7/19/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

· • Closest resistance levels: 1.1162; 1.1217/45; 1.1282; 1.1322

 

· • Closest support levels: 1.1003; 1.0976/45; 1.0871; 1.0829

 

· • Bullish risks range: 1.1162-1.1505

 

· • Bearish risks range: 1.1030-1.0829

 

EUR/USD keeps being under control by buyers. In mid-term perspective, the currency pair is still tending to be in decline (main goal of the bears is to reach 1.0871). Attaining 1.1003 level paves the way for levels 1.0976 and 1.0871. The fallback presupposes hitting 1.1162 and getting higher, which is the alarm for buying the pair with targets at 1.1217 and 1.1282.

 

 

GBP/USD

 

· • Closest resistance levels: 1.3307; 1.3359; 1.3403/54; 1.3514

 

· • Closest support levels: 1.3034; 1.2981; 1.2921; 1.2888

 

· • Bullish risks range: 1.3307-1.3514

 

· • Bearish risks range: 1.3034-1.2854

 

GBP/USD can continue the correction upwards, though a change risks are highly expected this week. The mid-term related scenario can be described as moderately-negative. The spike to 1.3307 paves the way for 1.3359 and 1.3403. The fallback is downwards movement to 1.3034. which is the alarm for selling with targets at 1.2981 and 1.2921.

 

 

USD/JPY

 

o • Closest resistance levels: 105.71; 106.15/51; 106.99; 107.93

 

o • Closest support levels: 103.61; 102.98; 102.25; 101.47

 

o • Bullish risks range: 105.71-107.93

 

o • Bearish risks range: 103.61-100.67

 

USD/JPY holds staying positive. The mid-term trend keeps shifting upwards. The range for buyers looks strong enough to absorb decline attempts. The spike to 105.71 paves the way for 106.15 and 106.99. The buyers should press the trigger when it reaches 103.61, targets are 102.98 and 102.25

 

 

USD/CAD

 

o • Closest resistance levels: 1.3033; 1.3079; 1.3134; 1.3200

 

o • Closest support levels: 1.2852; 1.2812; 1.2763; 1.2706

 

o • Bullish risks range: 1.3033-1.3350

 

o • Bearish risks range: 1.2852-1.2706

 

USD/CAD has got prepared for the growth. Bulls hold dominance in mid-terms. Rise higher 1.3033 sets the scene for new wave towards 1.3079 and 1.3134. Short positions are worthy to place if price consolidates lower 1.2852; targets are 1.2812 and 1.2763.

 

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9675

[riki143]

USD/CAD & Oil Prices: 1.3100 on the road?

7/20/2016

 

The decline in oil's prices is still weighing on CAD, at least during this week, as we can see a bullish consolidation on the USD/CAD pair above the 200 SMA at H1 chart. During yesterday, WTI crude oil futures settled down 1.30%, quoting at $44.65 per barrel. In addition, Crude Oil Inventories came weaker-than-expected, with -2300K, against 2207K registered last week. That's because of current risk-off sentiment on markets.

 

Current outlook on the Loonie at H1 chart is calling for more upside, as the pair is looking to break the strong resistance around the 1.3046 level. If that happens, then we can see a rally towards the July 12th high, around the 1.3130 price zone. However, we should take in mind that USD/CAD is following a bullish trend line projected from July 15th low. If the pair achieves in break it, then we can see a decline to the 1.2900 on a mid-term basis.

 

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9676

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro was caught by the bears

7/20/2016

 

On the daily EUR/USD chart the pair came to the lower border of the 1.1-1.1175 consolidation range. Successful test of support will lead the pair further down to the target of в AB=CD pattern at 161.8% (1.0890). Our earlier signal to sell from 1.1079 was successful. The short position was opened. We recommend to place the stop order to the breakeven point.

 

 

On H1 EUR/USD the AB=CD pattern is active. Its 224% target is at 1,.955. The nearest support is at 1.1038.

 

 

Recommendation: hold short positions.

 

EUR

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9677

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the bears restore the trend

7/20/2016

 

On the daily GBP/USD chart the bears restore the downtrend. The pair moves towards the target of AB=CD at 127.2% (1.261). Our recommendation to sell British pound from 1.3167 was successful. The short position was opened. Move the Stop Loss to a breakeven point.

 

 

On H1 the target is at 1.291. Here's the target of the "Shark" pattern. The nearest resistance is at 1.3145.

 

 

Recommendation: hold short positions.

 

GBP

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9678

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the Euro resumed its downtrend

7/20/2016

 

During yesterday's session the Eurodollar finally bounced from the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud and resumed the downtrend. By the end of the day the currency pair rates fell to lows of two weeks, to the figure of 1.1000. Ichimoku indicator’s mood is now completely bearish.

 

At the same time there is a local overbought market now. It is possible returning of the prices to the Tenkan-sen.

 

Technical levels: support - 1.1000; resistance – 1.1050.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.1050; SL — 1.1070; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 — 1.0950.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9679

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the Pound is under a cloud

7/20/2016

 

The Pound was unable to overcome the resistance of Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen during yesterday's session. Bounced from 1.3270 the market has continued decreasing and reached the levels of the Ichimoku clouds lower border. Today's trading is in the negative zone and the Bulls have a less and less chances for the correction to 1.4000. In the near future the bearish sentiment on the market will remain. Under the influence of the dead cross and the Ichimoku cloud the prices could fall to 1.2930.

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2930; resistance – 1.3130/50.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.3150; SL — 1.3170; TP1 — 1.2930; TP2 — 1.2860.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9680

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the spring continues to shrink

7/20/2016

 

The currency pair USD/JPY continues to stay above the Tenkan-Sen line. The Bulls could not continue the uptrend despite its efforts. As we said earlier, there is a strong resistance in the area of 106.30/40. Therefore, if today this level will not be passed, we will expect a correction to the Ichimoku cloud.

 

Technical levels: support – 105.10; resistance – 106.00, 106.40.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 106.00; SL — 106.20; TP1 — 105.10; TP2 — 104.10.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9681

[riki143]

NZD/USD falling inside minor correction (ii)[/b\

7/20/2016

 

NZD/USD falling inside minor correction (ii)

Next sell target – 0.6980

NZD/USD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7300 (top of wave (iii) and the previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from January. The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active minor correction (ii).

 

NZD/USD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the strong support level 0.6980 (which reversed the price twice in June) - intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from May.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9697

Edited July 20, 2016 by riki143

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" points to a possible correction

7/20/2016

 

 

The last “Triangle” has been broken. However, bears found a support at 1.1001 afterwards, so currently we’ve got a local upward correction. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.1057 – 1.1083 in the short term. If a pullback from this area arrives later on, sellers will probably try to achieve the next support at 1.0970.

 

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price has been moving in an intraday flat’s range since a support at 1.1001 was reached. Also, there’s a possible “Double Bottom” pattern, so bulls are likely going to try to get a resistance near the local downtrend. Perhaps, a pullback from here arrives afterwards. If so, bears will deliver a new low shortly.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9683

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Top" led to decline

7/20/2016

 

 

The price has been falling down. However, bears faced a support at 1.3116, so the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.3226 – 1.3336. If a pullback from this area arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to see another downward movement in the direction of the next support area at 1.3015 – 1.2849.

 

 

The last consolidation along the Moving Averages was finally ended by the strong bearish rally. Nevertheless, the price found a support at 1.3104, which led to the current local flat. So, the pair is likely going to get a resistance at 1.3273 – 1.3313. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.3015 – 1.2970.

 

More:

URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9688]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9688[/url]

[riki143]

Large banks: sell NZD/USD

7/20/2016

 

Barclays: Sell Limit at 0.7182, Take Profit 0.7005, Stop Loss 0.7271

 

Credit Suisse: Sell Limit at 0.7140, Take Profit 0.7005, Stop Loss 0.7195

 

Analysts at Citigroup claim that NZD/USD may fall by 3%. The fall may be triggered by the release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s economic assessment late on Thursday. Analysts at Credit Agricole, however, point out that the market has already priced in the RBNZ’s dovish comments, so the central bank needs to promise an August rate hike to maintain bearish trend in NZD/USD.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9693

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Hammer" & "Harami" highlight possibility of bullish correction

7/20/2016

 

 

The middle of the last huge black candle acted as a resistance, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, which led to the current decline. However, the price formed a pullback from the closest support line, which makes possible an achievement of the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Harami” hasn’t been confirmed. Therefore, we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. To sum up, there’s possibility to see a local upward correction, but bears are still in the game, so new lows are very likely.

 

 

There’re a “Hammer” and a “Harami” at the local low. So, the market is likely going to a local upward correction in the direction of the nearest resistance level and the 34 Moving Averages line.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9695

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to climb ever higher

7/20/2016

 

 

The price has been rising since a “Hammer” formed at the last low. Also, the pair faced a support on the 144 Moving Average, which led to form a “Harami” pattern. Therefore, bulls are likely going to move on towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s the unconfirmed bearish “Harami”, so today’s candle will probably be a white one.

 

 

The main upward trend is still on the table, which was supported by the 13 & 34 Moving Averages. Moreover, the last bullish “Harami” has been confirmed, so the price is likely going to continue rising until any bearish pattern arrives.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9696

[riki143]

USD/TRY rising inside minor impulse wave 3

7/20/2016

 

USD/TRY rising inside minor impulse wave 3

Next buy targets - 3.0600 and 3.1000

USD/TRY has been rising in the last two weeks inside

 

the minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse

 

wave (3) from May. The active impulse wave (3) started

 

when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying

 

between the support level 2.800 (which also previously

 

reversed the earlier primary ABC correction ④ from

 

September of 2015), lower weekly Bollinger Band and the

 

38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp

 

upward impulse from the start of 2015.

 

USD/TRY is likely to rise further to the next buy

 

target at the resistance level 3.0600, the breakout of

 

which can lead to further gains toward the next strong

 

resistance level 3.1000.

 

 

 

More:

 

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9698

[riki143]

EUR/USD before ECB's meeting: No major changes on current policy?

7/21/2016

 

Today at 11:45 GMT we'll know the interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, which currently holds the numbers at zero. Analysts don't expect any major changes in the current economic policy's stance from the central bank, as we have been seeing the current post-Brexit developments in terms of economy. BoE didn't change their interest rates and most probably the ECB won't do it. One of the topic to be on discussion probably will be the situation on Italian banks.

 

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H1 chart is still bearish and showing a consolidation below the 200 SMA. Currently, the pair is being supported by the 1.0987 level, where a breakout should open the doors to test the 1.0942 price zone. A dovish stance from ECB could send the pair towards the psychological level of 1.0900 approximately. In the another scenario, EUR/USD should break the 1.1041 level and that could push the pair towards the highs from July 15th.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9699

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears made a stop

7/21/2016

 

On the daily chart EUR/USD failed to break below support at 1.1 and formed "doji" as a result. As the high of this bar was retested, the bulls seized the initiative for a time being. The level of 1.1072 is acting as resistance. Here's 23,8% Fibo of the latest descending wave.

 

 

On H1 EUR/USD reached 161,8% target of AB=CD and resistance at 1.1038 I mentioned in the previous article. If the sellers manage to return the price to the short-term bearish channel, the risks of the downtrend resumption will increase. As long as EUR/USD is below 1,1127 (lower border of the uptrend channel, 78,6% Fibo of the latest descending wave, the market will remain bearish.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9700

[riki143]

AUD/USD looks for a growth driver

7/21/2016

 

AUD/USD tested the lower border of the short-term uptrend on the daily chart with the further recoil to the upside. If the bears find strength for another attack, and succeed, the pair may fall to convergence areas of 0.7405 and 0.7302-0.7342. The lower border of the medium-term bullish channel is nearby.

 

 

On H1 AUD/USD breached above the upper border of the current bullish channel and activated the "Shark" pattern. Its 161.8% target is at 0.7565. A bit higher is the lower border of the bullish channel. The failure at the convergence area will trigger selling.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9701

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the Bears are cautious

7/21/2016

 

During yesterday's session the major pair of Forex updated the three-week lows. The prices dropped out to 1.0980, but the Bears are cautious, because there is a strong support on the 1.1000 figure.

 

The current downward trend is still valid: the Ichimoku cloud extends downward and there is a dead cross. At the end of the correction we expect the downtrends continuation.

 

Technical levels: support - 1.1000; resistance – 1.1050.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.1050; SL — 1.1070; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 — 1.0950.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9702

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the Pound doesn’t hurry to lose its positions

7/21/2016

 

The Pound during yesterday's session was corrected along the bottom border of the Ichimoku cloud and rose up to 1.3270. But it met the horizontal Kijun-sen, which stopped the bullish movement. We note, in the area of 1.3300 formed a strong resistance from which possible the continuation of the downtrend.

 

Technical levels: support – 1.3170; resistance – 1.3300.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.3300; SL — 1.3320; TP1 — 1.3170; TP2 — 1.3060.

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9703

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the Aussie feels insecureac

7/21/2016

 

The Australian dollar stayed under bearish pressure. During yesterday's session, the Bears pushed the pair to the negative area, breaking down the support of a lower border of Ichimoku cloud to the 0.7450. Note that the short-term market sentiments influenced by dead cross.

 

At the same time, the Chinkou Span is in the oversold zone. And the Bulls can take advantages for the correction inside a cloud.

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7430; resistance – 0.7500.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 0.7500; SL — 0.7520; TP1 — 0.7430; TP2 — 0.7400.

 

 

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9704

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" set up bullish correction

7/21/2016

 

 

The price faced a support at 1.0970, which led to form a reversal “V-Bottom”, so we’ve got the current upward movement. So, bulls are likely going to get a resistance between the 34 Moving Average and the level at 1.1083. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.1001 – 1.0970.

 

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “V-Bottom”, which led to the current bullish price movement. Also, the 55 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. Therefore, the market is likely going to move up towards the closest resistance area. However, if sellers form a pullback from the trend line, then another downward movement will be on the table.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9705

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Bottom" stopped bearish rally

7/21/2016

 

 

We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current upward movement. Also, the price found a resistance at 1.3226, but bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.3336. At the same time, if a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bears will probably try to approach a support at 1.3116 – 1.3015.

 

 

There’s a “Triple Bottom”, which brought bulls into the market. The price faced a resistance at 1.3273, so the we’ve got a local consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.3273 – 1.3313 in the short term. If a pullback from here arrives, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price lower, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.3015 – 1.2970 as a possible next bearish target.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9706

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Hammer" triggered upward correction

7/21/2016

 

 

 

We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. Also, there’s a “Harami” on the closest “Window”, so the pair is likely going to test the middle of the last huge black candle once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, which points to a possible upward correction. However, bears will probably try to deliver a new low afterwards.

 

 

There’s a “Harami” on the 55 Moving Average, which has been confirmed. At the same time, bulls are likely going to test the next 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish rally.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9716

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" acted as a resistance

7/21/2016

 

 

The nearest “Window” has acted as a resistance, which led to form a bearish “Harami” pattern. Therefore, we’ve got the current downward correction. If the price faces a support on the 34 & 89 Moving Averages, bulls are likely going to reach the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a probable “Engulfing”, which makes possible an achievement of the closest support line.

 

 

There’s a “Harami”, which had been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support line. If a pullback from here happens soon, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance on the 13 & 34 Moving Averages.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9717

[riki143]

Major banks: forecasts for EUR ahead of the ECB

 

Analysts of the major banks have different stake on what decision the European Central Bank will make at today’s meeting. The ECB minimum bid rate will be announced at 11:45 GMT. Mario Draghi’s press conference will start at 12:30 GMT.

 

Citi: Short on the euro. The currency will make an abrupt move and then calm down. The market doesn’t expect much from the ECB, so any move lower in EUR can be enough to break ranges.

 

IGN: The euro has potential to decline to 1.0850 versus the US dollar in the near term. Resistance is at 1.1050/80.

 

BNPP: The market doesn’t expect much from the ECB. The central bank’s comments will be dovish, so the euro is unlikely to strengthen even if the ECB’s policy remains unchanged.

 

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: There’s a slight downside risk for the euro, although a big move is not expected.

 

UBS: The market is expecting dovish comments from the ECB, so the risks are for the euro’s increase after the central bank’s decision.

 

Scotiabank: Although the ECB won’t change policy at this meeting, it could signal a policy easing in September and this should hurt the euro.

 

EUR JPY AUD GBP