joaquinmonfort Posted January 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2013 GBP/USD: major trend-line broken Cable looks poised to fall to new lows, after a very bearish break of a major trend-line at 1.6017. Today's bounce has rebounded back up into the line. If it holds below the trend-line then the outlook is bearish with a probable fall to an eventual target at the lower border line of the multi-year triangle at 1.5725 or a nearer target at the monthly pivot at 1.5878. Alternatively, a close above 1.6060ish would negate the bearish outlook and look to a recovery to the 1.6180s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2013 AUD/USD: upside trend-line break The aussie moved above the major multi-month trend-line but has failed to breach the key 1.0600 level. It then fell-back down to the trend-line at 1.0515 where it is currently trading. There is a possibility of another rally and a break above the 1.0600 level could make 1.0680 reachable. Alternatively, given the waning upside momentum there is a possibility a move back below the trend-line, although support in the 1.0455s including the 50-day MA may impede downside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2013 EUR/USD: consolidating under resistence The EUR/USD pair is consolidating after re-touching the 1.3400 highs. There is a lot of overhead resistance and it will probably fall temporarily with a target at the range lows at 1.3250. Eventually the bull-trend will probably re-assert with a decisive break above 1.3410 leading to a continuation up to 1.3490. There is substantial resistance from the 50-month and 200-week MA's around 1.3520, which could stall further progress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2013 USD/JPY: continuation higher The pair continues in an up-trend, making higher highs and higher lows. Whilst it has reached one possible upside target from the measuring gap and there is also tough resistance from weekly and monthly pivots 92.00 remains the primary upside target from the inverted head and shoulders at the '11 lows. A move above the 90.30/40 would mark a continuation to 92.00. Alternatively, a break below 89.50 could see a move down to support at 88.45. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2013 GBP/USD: bearish continuation This pair has bearishly broken down through a trend-line. Although it has just reached support from the monthly pivot at 1.5875, and therefore could rebound, there are no strong signs of reversal yet and the outlook remains bearish. The target for the end-point for the move down could be 1.5685 at the lower border-line of the multi-month triangle, however, 1.5757 is another major support level too and could provide an interim objective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2013 EUR/USD: possible price pattern The trend remains bullish overall but there may now be a double top forming at the highs, which is a bearish sign. Momentum on the current bear move however is weakening and a break above 1.3331 could probably signal a new move back up to the range highs at 1.3400. A break below the 1.3255 lows on the other hand would confirm the double top had breached its neckline and give a downside target of 1.3110. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2013 USD/JPY: pull-back in uptrend The USD/JPY pair has fallen this morning after hitting the top of a rising channel. There is mild support at 90.00 and the 50-day MA at 89.50, and the potential for a stronger sell-off to channel lows at 88.90. The pair is looking overbought, but the target for the inverted head & shoulders has s not yet been reached at 91.90 and it probably will eventually, as the mid-term trend remains bullish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2013 EUR/USD: rangebound Resistance from a series of long-term MA’s above has prevented further upside and EUR/USD has entered a sideways consolidation. A decisive break of the range highs at 1.3478 would probably lead to a move up to the 200-month MA at 1.3525. Alternatively a break below the range lows at 1.3425 would lead to further downside to 1.3400 and then perhaps 1.3350. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2013 USD/JPY: resumption of uptrend The USD/JPY has broken to the upside and made new highs. The rally will probably continue as there are no reversal signs yet, although indicators are overbought. It will probably reach 91.90 which is the target from the large inverted head and shoulders at the lows. If it is exceeded then the combination of pivots at 93.20 could also provide overhead resistance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 31, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2013 GBP/USD: possible bearish resumption The bounce from Monday's lows looks like it is weakening and the down-trend could be resuming but it is a little too early to say. It will probably fall to the 1.5790 area, and if there is then a move higher, it could reach 1.5875. There is a strong chance, however, the down-trend is resuming and a break of the 1.5724 lows would confirm a fall, probably to the 1.5660 major trend-line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2013 EUR/USD: rallying The EUR/USD pair is in a strong uptrend which will probably continue higher, with the next target at 1.3785 where the monthly pivot and the target from the trend-line break are situated. The 1.3540 trough low is key and would have to be breached for confirmation of more bearish action with a major support level situated at 1.3400. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2013 EUR/USD: 'pulling-back' There has been a pull-back down from Friday's peak highs. There is a chance of a more substantial correction of the bull trend unwinding. A break below 1.3550 would open the way to a move down to 1.3475. There are no major longer-term reversal signs, however, so the up-trend will probably eventually resume with the next target at 1.3780. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2013 USD/JPY: resumption of uptrend The USD/JPY pair pulled back yesterday but this morning it seems to have reasserted itself again today. There is a possibility that it could carry on rallying with the next upside target at 93.50 where the weekly and monthly pivots converge. The target for the inverted head and shoulders has been reached at 92.05 but there are no strong reversal signs yet indicating the up-trend is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2013 GBP/USD: possible downside break GBP/USD is consolidating on – or slightly under - the major support line of a border of a multi-year triangle at 1.5715. It is unclear whether yesterday’s breakdown to 1.5630 was decisive and there is still the possibility of a rebound, however, the trend is still overall bearish and it will probably continue lower to pivot support at 1.5555. Alternatively a rebound could see it return back up to support-turned-resistance at 1.5715. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2013 (edited) USD/JPY: meeting monthly pivot The USD/JPY is rallying higher and bullish trend remains intact. It has hit resistance from the monthly pivot at 93.50, and it could be rejected, falling first to 93.00 and then the key 92.30 lows, however, it will probably continue, with a break above 94.05 confirming the bull-trend and targeting 95.28. It has passed the price-target of the inverted head and shoulders from the 2011 lows, at 92.11, and this increases the likelihood of a correction. RSI is overbought on weekly but has not given a sell signal, on the daily it indicates a possible pull-back. Edited February 7, 2013 by joaquinmonfort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 EUR/USD: consolidation in uptrend Eurodollar has fallen to a natural support and resistance level and it has started to form a sideways consolidation. There is a possibility it could be a flag and if so then the flag pole extrapolated down could give a target at 1.3240.The H&S top at the highs could also yield a target at a similar level. Alternatively, given the pair is now edging up, if it continues it could reach 1.3470 first and then possibly 1.3500 where the neckline is afterwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2013 USD/JPY: possible continuation pattern The USD/JPY is consolidating in a narrow range which could be a pennant or other continuation pattern. The trend remains up and it will probably break higher eventually. This morning the activity has been bullish and it will probably rise to resistance at around 93.67. A decisive break above 94.05 would target 95.30. Alternatively, range lows lie at around the 92.22 level, with a decisive break below that targeting 90.05. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2013 EUR/USD: consolidating on support The pair continues to consolidate on top of support from the trend-line and the monthly pivot. Activity today has been mainly bearish although it is now turning up, and a break above 1.3470 could trigger further upside to perhaps the 1.3715 highs. Alternatively a decisive break of the 1.3350 lows would indicate the trend-line had given way with a new target down at support at 1.2950. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 13, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2013 EUR/USD: rebound continues Eurodollar's bounce from the trend-line and the monthly pivot has continued higher and reached 1.3470. Today we have had another thrust higher and it will probably continue. There is an inverted H&S on the hourly chart with a price target at 1.3500 and another target is 1.3640. Alternatively a break below 1.3355 lows would give bearish confirmation that the trend lower was resuming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2013 GBP/USD: breakdown confirmed The pound has decisively broken out of the multi-year triangle and is now in a strong down-trend which will probably continue lower. The next target down would be at the monthly pivot situated at 1.5260 which is also a major support and resistance level. A break below that level would give strong bearish confirmation and signal a probable continuation down to the the next target lower, in the 1.40s. On the upside the tough resistance at 1.5560 would probably cap any rebounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2013 USD/JPY: consolidating The consolidation pattern continues to unfold at the highs. It is difficult to tell whether or not it is a rising wedge as it has now broken through the wedge's lower border and could run all the way down to 91.15. The head and shoulders top pattern on the daily RSI is another bearish sign. The larger trend remains bullish, however, and it is also possible there will be a move higher to the cluster of resistance at 93.50 as an initial objective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2013 EUR/USD: bounce possible The EUR/USD pair has fallen to a cluster of strong support including the 200-4hour moving average, a trend-line and a neckline for a possible H&S top. The downward pressure seems to have eased today and there is a reversal pattern breaking on the hourly chart which could signal a bounce back up; with a break above 1.3395 targeting 1.3470. Alternatively any further downside could break through the neckline and trigger a stronger downside move, although it would have to pierce below 1.3245 for confirmation of a move down to 1.2950. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bisecom Posted February 19, 2013 Report Share Posted February 19, 2013 Will see if the support will be broken. If yes, there could be nice opportunities.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 19, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2013 USD/JPY: consolidating at highs The USD/JPY pair continues to consolidate in a range. The overall trend is up so there is a possibility of an bullish breakout. The Chaiken Money Flow Index is showing a possible bullish break of its down-trend-line. A decisive move above the 94.43 highs would give confirmation and trigger an upside target at the 96.60 level. Alternatively it is also quite possible the pair could break down, with a move below support at 92.17 probably leading to a stronger move down to 90.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted February 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2013 GBP/USD: bearish continuation Cable is in a strong down-trend which will probably continue until it reaches the next target down at the 1.5260 where major support and resistance level and a clustering of a monthly and a weekly pivots lie, further reinforcing support. The pair will probably pause at this level before continuing lower. A decisive break below 1.5200 might signal a major bearish continuation towards the target from the multi-year triangle at 1.3000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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