Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: up-trend extending

 

Cable is in a strong short-term up-trend, which is part of a bullish medium-term trend. It is overbought on the 4-hour chart, however, indicating the short-term trend may be over-stretched and ready for a pull-back. Despite being over-bought momentum indicators have not yet given a sell signal. This over-extension coincides with the pair reaching a possible border-line of a broadening formation at the 1.6725 level, connecting the January 2nd and 24th highs. Whilst it is unlikely the short-term up-trend will reverse at this level there is the possibility of temporary pull-back down to 1.6660, or the R1 monthly pivot at 1.6630. Nevertheless, given the lack of any bearish signs from price action the up-trend will probably continue higher. A clearance of the border line – with perhaps a move above 1.6745, would probably confirm a continuation higher, with the R2 monthly pivot at 1.6829 providing the next target.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPUSD14-e1392375056264.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend extending

 

EUR/USD continues to channel higher both on a short and a medium-turn basis. It will probably continue rising, with the next target not far above current highs situated at previous highs at 1.3740, followed, possibly, by the R2 monthly pivot and major down-sloping trend-line connecting 2008 and 2011 highs at 1.3875-1.3900. Currently it is pulling back from its highs after making a 2-bar reversal on the hourly chart, and there is a possibility that it could fall to support at 1.3680. However, even if this happens, it will probably resume its up-trend eventually. A clear break above the 1.3740 highs, by going above 1.3760 perhaps, would provide strong confirmation of a probable continuation higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD17-e1392630098584.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pausing in up-trend

 

EUR/USD has been in an up-trend since the July '13 lows. Now the short-term trend has also turned up and is channeling higher. It will probably continue, first to 1.3740 and then, if it breaks above that level to a zone between 1.3875 – 1.3900, where resistance from the R2 monthly pivot and the major down-sloping trend-line connecting the 2008 and 2011 highs is situated. Any pull-backs will probably find support at 1.3680, but even if that happens the up-trend will probably resume eventually. A clear break above 1.3740 highs – by going above 1.3760 say – would probably provide a strong continuation signal higher up to the 1.38/39 targets. ADX is very also indicating a probable extension higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD18-e1392714342798.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: a-b-c correction concluding

 

Cable has pulled back from its highs and moved back inside its broadening formation after the brief foray above the upper border-line. A clear A-B-C correction is forming with leg C still extending down. C will probably extend further to the monthly pivot at 1.6630, although after completing, there will probably be a rebound and the up-trend could resume. The short-term bullish trend remains intact and it is rising within a stronger medium-term up-trend. I would probably want to see a re-break above 1.6750 level for confirmation of a resumption higher, and an initial target at the R2 monthly pivot and the recent highs at 1.6829.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPUSD18-e1392720813597.png

Edited February 18, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pulling-back in up-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a short-term up-trend within a medium-term up-trend which began at the July '13 lows. The pair is channelling higher and has broken above the key 1.3740 highs. It is expected to eventually reach the next major target higher between 1.3875 and 1.3900, where the R2 monthly pivot and a major down-sloping trend-line offer resistance. The pair has started to pull-back today, and will probably move down to resistance-turned-support at 1.3740 and then possibly support at 1.3725. After this pull-back it is expected to resume its up-trend in line with the broader bullish trends. ADX is turning up slightly form oversold lows indicating a probable extension higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD19-e1392804747538.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: correcting in up-trend

 

Cable is consolidating after forming an A-B-C correction. The medium and short-term up-trends remain intact and the pair will probably eventually resume its bullish trend. A break above the 1.6750 highs would provide added confirmation of such a move with a target at the R2 monthly pivot at 1.6829. There is a possibility of an extension lower, and a break below the 1.6653 lows providing a strong bearish signal and bringing into doubt the direction of the short-term trend, although support from the monthly pivot at 1.6630 - not far below - would probably impede progress lower. A definitive break below the pivot, by moving under the 1.6610 level would open the 'flood gates' down.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPUSD19-e1392811067860.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correcting back in up-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair is pulling-back within a short-term up-trend, which itself is part of a broader medium-term up-trend which began at the July '13 lows. The current pull-back looks like an A-B-C correction, with a weak A wave and a strong C wave. The correction has almost fallen to the lower channel line of the move up which began at the 2nd Feb lows, which is situated at 1.3680, and there is a possibility it could fall to this level eventually. The R1 monthly pivot is also at 1.3680, so there is likely to be strong support there. The sell-off is strong and may continue lower, however, the short-term up-trend remains intact and will probably resume, taking the pair back up to the 1.3773 highs and then an eventual target at 1.3875.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD20-e1392889488301.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: box pattern forming

 

The USD/JPY is in a short-term down-trend overall but has pulled-back and is now trading in a sideways consolidation. The sideways pattern has highs at 102.70 and lows at 101.40. A decisive break below the 101.40 lows would probably signal a fall to a target – taking the width of the box as a guide – of 100.10. There is a lot of support on the way, however, including the 100-day MA at 101.25 and the S1 monthly pivot at 100.75 which could slow downside momentum. The bias is for a bearish breakdown although the pair remains in a medium-term bullish up-trend. The outlook is complicated by a the formation of a bearish 2-bar reversal pattern on the monthly chart. Overall, however, more downside seems most likely.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDJPY20-e1392897682366.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend resuming

 

The EUR/USD pair has recovered and started to resume its short-term up-trend. It has now reached 1.3750 and will probably continue. A break above the 1.3758 high would provide bullish confirmation of a continuation, however, the next target, at the 1.3773 major high has almost already been achieved, leaving only a few extra pips to gain. Therefore a clear break above that level, including a 20 pip confirmation buffer perhaps, could signal a continuation up to the next level at 1.3875 where the R2 monthly pivot lies.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD24-e1393233541204.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: correction extends lower

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPUSD24-e1393240910495.png

 

The correction in cable has extended, forming a sequence of lower lows and lower highs which probably indicates the short-term trend has now changed to 'down'. The pair is channelling lower with price currently moving down after touching the upper border of*a descending *channel. It will probably continue until it reaches the lower border of the channel situated at 1.6580. The R1 monthly pivot at 1.6630, however, could impede downside progress. The medium-term trend continues to be up, raising the possibility of a recovery although the short-term down-trend currently hold's sway. The volatile phase of activity which began on the 1st of February now looks like a broadening formation, that could signal a reversal of the medium term trend to 'down' as well.

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: triangle forming in up-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair has resumed its short-term up-trend. Yesterday it rallied up and almost retouched the 1.3773 highs before falling back down again. Now it is rising once more and will probably continue. A clear break above the highs – by moving above 1.3793, for example – could probably lead to a move up to the next target at 1.3875 where the R2 monthly pivot lies. There is a possibility it has formed a triangle, or other sideways consolidation, in which case it could continue sideways in between the 1.3770s and 1.3670s, however, eventually it would still be expected to breakout to the upside, in a continuation of the prior trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD25-e1393320523391.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: short-term trend in doubt

 

The USD/JPY pair has been in an overall short-term down-trend after breaking below a major trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows. It has traded for 3 weeks below that line. It will eventually probably fall further to a target at 100.00. On the 4 -hour chart, however, the sequence of peaks and troughs has reversed and is climbing, with the most recent peak at 102.82, whilst the previous one was at 102.73. This indicates the possibility of more upside. The underside of the trend-line lies at about 103.00 and would be expected to resist; also close by are the 50-day MA and monthly pivot. A break above the 103.43 highs would probably be necessary to indicate a re-break above the trend-line and a bullish continuation higher, targeting 104.00 perhaps. Alternatively a move below the 101.66 lows would probably indicate a bearish continuation to 100.00.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDJPY25-e1393329304196.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: triangle completing

 

he EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate in a triangle formation. It is currently moving down to the lower border of the triangle. This wave will be the 5th wave inside the triangle and after it has completed the pattern will have the minimum necessary wave and there will be an increased chance of a breakout. A clear break above the upper border – by moving above 1.3793, for example – could probably lead to a move up to the next target at 1.3875 where the R2 monthly pivot lies. An upside breakout is favoured as triangles are more likely to continue the prior trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD26-e1393403560652.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: broadening pattern; bearish bias

 

Cable has formed a large broadening formation which began at the beginning of January 2014. Price is currently at the upper edge of the pattern, where it has stalled and pulled back. In the very short-term it is in a down-trend, which remains intact, even though there is an overall upside bias mid-term. The recovery which began on the 24th has stalled, and a move below 1.6659 would probably signal a resumption of the short-term trend down. The monthly pivot at 1.6630, however, is an impediment to downside progress, as is support from the upper channel line of the descending channel at 1.6609. Today's activity has been sideways so far, giving no clues of future direction.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPUSD26-e1393416032688.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: 50-day MA supporting

 

EUR/USD broke down out of the triangle it was consolidating in at the highs and has fallen steeply. It is now in a short-term down-trend which will probably extend lower. Currently the exchange rate has met support from the 50-day MA at 1.3650 and is pausing. It will probably eventually break below the MA and reach the next target at 1.3628, generated from the width of the triangle, however that target is not far below the current level. More bearish activity after that, could see the pair fall even more deeply, probably down to the monthly pivot at 1.3580.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD27-e1393495298597.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: breaking out of wedge pattern

 

The USD/JPY has probably resumed its short-term down-trend after making two lower lows and two lower highs on the 4hr chart, since rolling over after reaching the 102.82 highs. It also looks like it has successfully broken out of a wedge pattern formed during February. The pair had already broken below a major trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows, however, it is not until now that the short-term trend is falling into line with the broader bearish outlook. Whilst the exchange rate might pause at the 100-day MA at 101.60, it will probably break lower and continue down to the next target at the S1 monthly pivot at 100.75 eventually.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDJPY27-e1393500489349.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: rebound brings down-trend into doubt

 

The EUR/USD pair made a strong recovery yesterday after finding support at the 50-day MA. It has bounced up to the underside of a major trend-line drawn from the July '12 lows. The very short-term down-trend which began after the breakout looks like it might be reversing given the strength of the spike-up. It would require an equally strong move down, and a breach of the 1.3642 lows to signal a resumption of the down-trend. The next target is not far lower, however, at 1.3628, whilst further weakness might reach the monthly pivot at 1.3580. The sideways nature of price action over the last 4 months means there is no overall trend at the moment, and so given prices are currently touching the range highs they will probably move back down within the range again from here.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD28-e1393580094379.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend extending

 

The EUR/USD has gaped down this morning and is currently trending lower on the key intraday 30min chart, which is used by traders to indicate the directional bias for the day. Overall, however, the short and medium-term trends are 'up' and likely to extend higher eventually. There is a possibility that a rebound could begin at the current level in the 1.3770s since it is comprised of previous highs and therefore likely to provide support. Alternatively, the cluster of MA's at 1.3735 might offer a level where prices would probably turn around and begin to rally again, or failing that, the monthly pivot at 1.3700. The next move higher would probably target the former highs at 1.3892 and then the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3925.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD03-e1393842717728.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: down-trend probably resuming

 

Cable has formed a large broadening formation price pattern during 2014. The exchange rate has just reached the upper border of the pattern and turned lower. The move down has found support at February's R1 monthly pivot at 1.6630 and risen back up. It has just met the underside of an old trend-line drawn from the 5th February lows and pulled-back. This pull-back will probably fall lower, resuming the short-term down-trend, which remains intact and likely to extend. A move below 1.6660 could provide bearish confirmation of a resumption down. The next target is the monthly pivot at 1.6600 and then possibly 1.6580; a break below that would indicate the pivot was breached and open the way up to a move down to the 50-day MA at 1.6500.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD04-e1393930681723.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bouncing off support

 

The EUR/USD pair is bouncing higher this morning. The clusters of moving averages in the 1.3730 zone seem to have provided the necessary support for this recovery move. The dominant up-trend is probably resuming, although it has just reached resistance from the lower border of the previous triangle pattern, which could lead to a pause or consolidation. A break above the current 1.3773 highs would add confirmation of a continuation higher, first targeting the 1.3892 highs and then possibly the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3925. Alternatively a break below the 1.3720 lows would be a bearish sign, introducing doubt into a solely bullish short-term outlook.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD04-e1393923802379.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: descending triangle in up-trend

 

EUR/USD has formed a bearish right-angled triangle visible on the 4hr chart favouring a break lower. The recent move below the key 1.3720 lows has brought into doubt the very short-term up-trend as the 4hr chart is now showing two lower lows and two lower highs. A break below the trough lows at 1.3690 would be a surer sign the short-term up-trend had reversed. This morning's downside bias on the key 30min chart indicates a probable continuation lower - at least for today. Down-side is capped, however, by heavy duty support close by, first from the monthly pivot at 1.3700 and then the 50-day MA at 1.3655, with moves lower probably consolidating on these levels. The medium term trend*is still*up with a key trend-line from the July '12 lows also providing support at 1.3680, and so far unbroken.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD05-e1394014787893.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: strong recovery rally

 

The USD/JPY has recovered strongly after breaking out from the wedge pattern and gaping down. It's a surprising turnaround due to an easing in geopolitical tensions in the Ukraine. The very short-term trend may have reversed after moving above the previous peak high at 102.28 and the lower border-line of the wedge. A break above the 102.46 highs would probably see an extension to 102.82, whilst a move above that would be very bullish. The descent from the 1st Jan highs is well established, however, and likely to resume. The mid-term trend remains up adding background pressure. The fact that we have had two down-months in a row in a dominant up-trend is a sign of a possible resumption 'up' according to the 'Taylor rule'.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY05-e1394026323329.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: triangle/wedge pattern forming

 

The right-angled triangle on EUR/USD has continued to lengthen and fall, extending the very short-term down-trend lower, however, its appearance has changed and it now looks more like a wedge pattern after yesterday's weakness. A wedge would have more bullish connotations. The pattern has 5 waves indicating it has fulfilled the minimum number for completion and may be about to break out. There is still formidable support at the lows from the monthly pivot at 1.3700 and a trend-line at around 1.3680. A break below 1.3680-90, might, however, open the way to a move down to support from the 50-day MA at 1.3655. Alternatively, a break above 1.3750 might indicate a resumption of the dominant up-trend, targeting the 1.3892 highs. The ECB rate meeting today will probably produce volatility.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD06-e1394094163419.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidating; downside bias

 

Cable is consolidating at the upper-boundary of a broadening formation, which has been forming since the beginning of 2014. It is currently in a sideways consolidation with a very short-term downside bias. The evolution of the broadening formation indicates one last down-leg is probable before it completes, with a break back below 1.6657 indicating such a sell-off could be under-way. Further confirmation could come from a move below 1.6641; the monthly pivot at 1.6605 would provide an initial target down. Alternatively, a bullish flag has been forming on the hourly chart, which could signal the possibility of a break to the upside. A move above 1.6741 would turn the trend bullish in the very short term, and lead to a probable extension up to the upper boundary of the broadening formation at 1.6790.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD06-e1394104597661.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: dominant up-trend resuming

 

The EUR/USD pair rose strongly, breaking out of the triangle/wedge pattern yesterday after the ECB interest rate meeting. The move higher has led to a resumption of the dominant up-trend on the very short, short and medium time frames. The move up from the 27th February looks like a zig-zag pattern and if we take the first leg as a guide then the current up-move will reach equality with that first move when it reaches the 1.3892 highs, further reinforcing its significance as a target. A stronger rally above that level could reach the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3925.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD08-e1394182854621.png