Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend continuing

 

USD/JPY has continued rising in a strong up-trend although it has reached resistance now where the R2 monthly pivot is situated at 101.82, and has pulled back, falling to support from an old but major trend-line at 101.60 where it is consolidating. The strong short-term up-trend remains dominant and will probably continue higher. If the current resistance level from the monthly pivot at 101.82 is surpassed – perhaps with a break above 102.00 for certainty - then the pair will probably continue higher, with the old highs at 103.72 providing the next target to the upside.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/USDJPY25-e1385379393375.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: meeting resistance at 1.3550

 

EUR/USD has started moving higher again after pulling-back to 1.3500. It has now reached 1.3545 where it has run into a strong resistance zone comprised of the 50-day MA and the underside of the rising channel at 1.3560. There is the possibility it will push through the resistance to the highs at 1.3578 – although equally it could fall back down. Given the original bearish break out of the rising channel at the start of November and the rather unconvincing recovery rally so far, I see the potential for a resumption of the down-trend as a result of further shocks. A move below the 1.3489 swing lows would provide some confirmation, with 1.3429 as an initial target. Alternatively if we get a move above the 1.3578 highs, that would indicate prices had fought their way back inside the rising channel and herald the possibility of still higher prices – initially to 1.3630 - and a bullish reversal taking root.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD26-e1385459050538.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: pulling back from range highs

 

Cable remains range-bound after pulling back from the range highs. Yesterday was a bearish engulfing day; today prices fell initially but have now found support from the lower border of the triangle at 1.6145. A break below 1.6130 could signal a new leg down, targeting 1.6070 at first, and would be a very bearish sign. Against this, however, must be balanced the fact that the trend before the consolidation was up and so it is likely to continue. Also ADX on the daily chart is very low at 13.44 warning a breakout might be on the horizon as volatility has reached extreme lows. Therefore an upside break surprise is also a possibility, although I would want to see a decisive breach of 1.6290 or 1.6300 for confirmation, with a target at 1.6430. With BOE officials testifying this morning, and GDP tomorrow some volatility is on the cards.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/GBPUSD26-e1385462213767.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: down-trend continuing

 

After a recent pull-back the pair has resumed its down-trend again, falling to new lows today. Momentum is waning, however, and there is a marked bullish convergence between price and momentum indicating the latest leg down lacks punch; although there is no sign yet from price action that a bullish reversal is beginning. The next important level of support is at around the 0.9030 level where the S2 monthly pivot is situated. The neckline of the large inverted head and shoulders at the lows is also offering support at the 0.9015 level. The current trend down will probably continue until these levels are met.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD26-e1385471947364.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: meeting key resistance from the R3 monthly pivot

 

USD/JPY has resumed its up-trend after pulling back down to 101.20. It has now moved higher giving a sign that the up-trend is renewing. The R3 monthly pivot – which is rarely touched – is situated at 101.75 and is currently preventing further upside. This would have to be breached decisively, with confirmation coming from a move above 101.90 or 102.00 perhaps to signal a continuation higher. Clearance would probably lead to a move up to the level of the 103.72 highs, however, which constitutes the next major target to the up-side.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/USDJPY27.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: re-break back into rising channel

 

EUR/USD has continued moving higher, breaking above key resistance at 1.3550 and then also above the lower line of a rising channel. Yesterday saw a close just inside the channel, which was a bullish sign, today the exchange rate has pulled back slightly to the channel line where it is now finding support. These bullish signs seem to indicate the possibility of a stronger recovery back inside the channel, and a rise up to the next target at 1.3630 from the R1 monthly pivot. The whole move up from the November 7 lows is not particularly strong, however, and the possibility of a break-down and resumption of the bearish trend is still ever-present. Inflation data on Friday could be key with a lower-than-expected print almost certainly leading to a sell-off and a higher result to establishment within the channel. 1.3550 former resistance will become support so a breach below that, and even perhaps the 1.3520 lows could confirm a resumption down to an initial target at the 1.3400 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD27-e1385546655261.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend extends higher

 

EUR/USD continues crawling higher. Today has been bullish so far and so is likely to continue, higher. Overall the trend is relatively mixed with the direction of the next turn unclear. The next target higher lies close by at 1.3630 where the monthly pivot provides resistance. Overall the recovery rally remains unconvincing so a resumption of the bear trend remains a possibility, although given today is the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S it probably won't happen yet. Traditionally the Friday after Thanksgiving is prone to high volatility and this, combined with Euro-zone CPI tomorrow, could produce a shock move resolving the enigmatic current mode. Resistance-turned-support from the 50-day MA at 1.3550 is in the way, though, and a break below 1.3530 would help provide confirmation, and lead to a possible extension to 1.3400.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD28-e1385633191585.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: breaking out from multi-week range

 

Cable has broken out above the top of the range at 1.6255 and is now expected to rally higher. After the initial breakout yesterday it came back for a retest but has since pushed back up again, reaffirming the upside breakout as valid. The target higher, calculated using the width of the consolidation, lies at 1.6650, however, a nearer-term objective, would be resistance from the R2 monthly pivot at 1.6430.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/GBPUSD28-e1385638543439.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: nearing resistance from monthly pivot

 

EUR/USD's overall trend is unclear but it is rising today and will probably continue until it hits resistance from the monthly pivot not far above at 1.3630. At that level it will probably rotate and move back down to perhaps 1.3580-90. The two legs (A and C) of the recovery rally from the 7th November low look almost equal in length now and therefore the pattern may be close to completion. The lack of conviction in the move up and the comparative strength of the previous move down from the October highs indicates the possibility of a bearish resumption. This could see prices fall, first to resistance-turned-support at 1.3550, and then to 1.3400, with confirmation coming from a break below 1.3525. Euro-zone CPI is out today and if it undershoots expectations could cause considerable weakness - or volatility in either direction.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD29-e1385719441951.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pull-back in up-trend

 

USD/JPY has pulled back after strongly trending higher. It has formed a 2-bar reversal on the 4-hr chat at the highs and started to move lower. This is probably just a temporary adjustment before the next leg up, although it could extend to 101.80 where the R3 monthly pivot is situated – particularly if it moves underneath the 102.10 lows. However, the up-trend is so strong that after that the dominant short-term up-trend will probably resume, with the 103.72 highs targeted next.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/USDJPY29-e1385726367457.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking lower

 

EUR/USD is weakening: it has fallen 65 pips in only a few hours. It is possible this may be a sign the move up which started on the 20th November has completed and we are entering a new down-phase. The problem is that there is considerbale support below impeding further downside: the 50-day MA is successfully supporting at 1.3550 at the momenta and the head-and-shoulders pattern at the highs gives a down-target of 1.3535, however, overall I think it will probably eventually reach the monthly pivot at 1.3500. A break below the trend-line at 1.3480 would be key to signaling a resumption of the down-trend, and until then a recovery back up to 1.3600 remains a strong possibility as well.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/eurusd2-e1385979598113.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: pulling-back in up-trend

 

GBP/USD is pulling-back in a strong up-trend. There is a possibility it might fall to support from its trend-line at 1.6375 but after that it will probably rebound and move higher. The next major target higher is at the R1 monthly pivot at 1.6550. The longer-term target, however, lies at 1.6650, calculated by extrapolating the width of the recent consolidation ramnge higher. Confirmation of more upside would come from a re-break above the 1.6440 highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GBPUSD02-e1385984693330.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: meeting resistance from 50-day MA

 

EUR/USD continues to oscillate with no clear trend. After its sharp fall to 1.3525 the pair has bounced and has reached resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.3562. It will need to clear this resistance by rising above 1.3590 in order to establish a more bullish outlook and open the way to the next target at 1.3680. It is also possible that it could rotate at its current level and resume its down-trend towards the key trend-line from the 6th November lows situated at 1.3475; with a break below the 1.3523 lows probably providing confirmation. This trend-line is pivotal - if broken it will indicate a a resumption of the bear trend from the October highs; if held it could indicate a continuation of the recovery.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/eurusd3-e1386065255125.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling-back sharply

 

USD/JPY has fallen sharply this morning, temporarily ending the relentless rally higher of the last few days. There is a lack of support below the current level indicating the pair will probably fall further, although ther eis light support within the 102.40 - 50 zone could impede down-side temporarily. A clearance below there – with a move below 102.20 - could open the way down to the next major support level between 101.00 and 100.90 where the monthly pivot lies. Overall the medium-term up-trend remains dominant, however, and once the pull-back completes it should resume, taking the pair back up towards the 103.72 highs and then probably higher to the R1 monthly pivot at 104.15.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/USDJPY03-e1386071957962.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bouncing after dip; trend in doubt

 

EUR/USD has recovered and bounced higher. This may or may not be a resumption of the up-trend but if it were, confirmation would come from a break above the 1.3620 highs. This would then probably target resistance from the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3708. Alternatively a break below 1.3555 could signal a resumption lower and target support from the key trend-line at 1.3485. Overall we are still presented with a mix of bearish and bullish signals making it difficult to come down on one said or another. The current recovery rally from the early November lows remains unconvincing but it is in-line with the broader up-trend; the breakdown from the rising channel which held out so much bearish promise, however, has so far failed to follow-through.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD04-e1386150911601.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidating in up-trend

 

GBP/USD is starting to consolidate in a sideways range within an up-trend. The range is situated between 1.6340 and 1.6440. The exchange rate will probably continue oscillating between these two levels until it has completed and then it will probably breakout higher extending the dominant trend up. Currently it is recovering within the range and will probably move up to the range highs at 1.6440 . If it clears the highs the next target would be at resistance from R1 at 1.6550, followed by 1.6650.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GBPUSD04-e1386158452516.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: recovery continues; ECB on tap

 

EUR/USD continues to rise, making higher highs and higher lows. Nevertheless, it has not managed to decisively break above the lower channel line of the rising channel yet, indicating there is still the potential for continued weakness. The overall bias, however, seems to be more bullish after the break above the 1.3620 highs and this means the exchange rate could rise further to the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3708. The current recovery from the early November lows is unconvincing but it is in-line with the broader up-trend; whislt the breakdown from the rising channel has failed to follow-through to the downside. The 50-day MA currently provides support at 1.3555 and would have to be breached decisively to indicate more downside. Today is the ECB rate meeting and much volatility is possible.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD05-e1386236618135.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term up-trend in doubt

 

EUR/USD has risen up quite strongly, and temporarily broken back into its channel. It is currently consolidating in a flag pattern on the hourly chart, from which it will probably break higher. There is now more evidence that the short-term trend is turning bullish. A break above the current 1.3676 highs would confirm further upside. The exchange rate will probably continue rising higher until it reaches major resistance from the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3708, which is the next target to the upside. The recovery from the November lows is more convincing now, and it is in line with the broader up-trend. Today sees the release of Non-Farm Payrolls which will probably cause some volatility. A higher-than-expected result will probably strengthen the dollar pushing EUR/USD back down again.

 

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-FH5h_PmccL8/UqGqy34yg8I/AAAAAAAAG3E/hyLAIsbgNVI/w728-h660-no/EURUSD06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: bull flag forming

 

GBP/USD has paused in its up-trend after breaking above the upper border of a multi-month triangle. It is now consolidating in a down-sloping range which looks like a bull flag continuation pattern. It is currently rising up within the 'flag' and will probably continue up to the upper edge at 1.6375. Eventually it will probably breakout higher and the dominant short-term up-trend will resume. A conservative target for the breakout is 1.6480 but 1.6550 is another significant resistance area. If it is a flag then 1.6630 would mark the upper end of the pole. A break above 1.6410, or the 1.6440 highs would provide bullish confirmation. Today's Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to cause volatility.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GBPUSD06-e1386330746389.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: back inside rising channel

 

EUR/USD has now moved comfortably back into the rising channel. This is a bullish sign and indicates that the pair will probably go higher. The medium term trend is also up further adding to the bullish outlook. Price has reached the R1 monthly pivot, however, and this may lead to a pull-back, perhaps to support at 1.3675, but such a pull-back would probably only be temporary before the dominant up-trend resumed. Currently price is trying successfully to break above the R1, and given the strength of the rally so far it may succeed. Notwithstanding light resistance at 1.3750, The next target higher is the R2 pivot at 1.3828, followed by the major trend-line down from the 2008 all-time-highs at 1.3895.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/eurusd09-e1386582348797.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend resuming

 

The USD/JPY has risen for 6 straight weeks in a row. Before the triangle consolidation it had rallied strongly for months since the lows in 2011 and '12. Therefore short, medium and possibly long (depending on the definition) term trends are now in sync. Most recently the short-term up-trend has resumed after a pull-back to the 101.70s finished. The pair will now probably rally higher to the previous highs at 103.72, followed by the R1 monthly pivot at 104.16. A break above 103.22 would help to provide confirmation of any continuation higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/USDJPY09-e1386589145315.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: rallying strongly

 

The EUR/USD pair has risen up strongly and will probably continue moving higher. It has broken up above the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3708 and surged up to 1.3750 where it has met further resistance from an old trend-line. It has since backed down and is currently consolidating. It will probably resume its up-trend, with confirmation coming from a move above the 1.3767 highs. The next target is situated at the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3829, followed by major resistance at the trend-line down from the 2008 all-time-highs at 1.3895.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD10-e1386670065494.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: breakout from bull flag

 

GBP/USD has broken out of a bull flag continuation pattern and has started to rise in line with the dominant up-trend. It will probably continue higher until it reaches the next target at the level of the R1 monthly pivot at 1.6550. A break above the current 1.6465 highs would provide confirmation. Eventually it should reach the target calculated from extrapolating the width of the previous consolidation zone higher of 1.6600.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GBPUSD101-e1386673887904.png

Edited December 10, 2013 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correction in weakening up-trend

 

EUR/USD continues to move higher, although it is showing less momentum and yesterday there was weakness at the end of the day, with a grave-stone doji on the 4-hr chart auguring down. The current pull-back could extend lower to 1.3730, but it will probably recover and possibly reach the 1.3830 highs since the short-term up-trend remains intact. The choppy rise from the March lows, however, indicates me may be nearing a crucial cyclical turning point. There have been 4 sine waves, each with lengths of about 8 weeks, up-slopes of 5, 4.5, 6 and 7 weeks and down-sides of 3, 3, 2 and 2 weeks. If the current wave emulates the cycle then it may be reaching its peak in the next week since it has already been rising for 5 weeks. Therefore there is time for a bit more upside yet – perhaps to the previous peak highs at 1.3832 but after that the cycle may peak and start moving lower for 2 or 3 weeks.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD11-e1386760591400.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: A-B-C correction completing; recovery possible

 

The USD/JPY has pulled back after re-touching the 103.35 highs. Since yesterday it has retraced 50% of the previous rally in a clear A-B-C move and it is now at a level where it is possible the up-trend might resume and take the exchange rate back up to 103.35, followed by 103.72. Although momentum is verging on overbought it is not so extreme that it would necessarily indicate more weakness immediately. ADX(8) is above 50 indicating the trend-orientated climate may be maturing and a sideways market mode could be taking over, so an extension of the pull-back into a consolidation is a definite possibility.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/USDJPY11-e1386767341309.png