Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line resisting

 

The EUR/USD pair has pulled-back temporarily to the major trend-line drawn from the July '12 lows. The monthly pivot at 1.2870 is also capping upside gains. These should offer resistance and the pair will probably resume its down-trend again towards the 1.2580 target, however, the general lack of follow-through lower is a little bit concerning. We cannot discount the possibility of a bounce, with a move above the spike high at 1.2930 confirming more upside to an initial target at 1.3000.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD22.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consoldiating after channel break

 

The GBP/USD pair broke out of its channel and started to move lower in a strong down-trend. After meeting support from the monthly pivot at the current lows it bounced and has been consolidating at the 1.5160 lows, in a range of about 120 pips and it is possible we might see a move higher now, back up into the range highs at 1.5275 where the 50-day MA sits. Eventually, however, the down-trend should re-assert itself, because we still have not reached the reliable target at 1.5010 calculated from the channel breakout.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/GBPUSD22.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: tentative recovery

 

The EUR/USD pair failed to follow-through after the bearish break below the July '12 trend-line. It has started to rebound, forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.2930; a decisive break above which could lead to a rally up to 1.3070 eventually, although strong resistance at 1.2980, composed of the 50 and 200-day MA could slow progress on the way up. Given the overall bearish tenor of the chart, however, and the high event risk of Bernanke's testimony today, a continuation lower is also a possibility, with a penetration of 1.2840 required for confirmation, and - in a steep down-trend – a follow-through expected down to 1.2580.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: still channeling higher

 

The USD/JPY pair continues to rise within its bullish channel, although at a much slower rate then previously, and it looks vulnerable to a bearish breakdown. Momentum has, however, come off over-bought highs and given the dominant up-trend the pair will probably now rally up from the lower-channel line towards the upper line and an eventual target set after the breakout from the ascending triangle at 104.00. A move below yesterday's lows, however, at 102.34 could confirm a channel breakdown to a target at 101.35. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech today will probably cause some volatility in any case.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/USDJPY23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bouncing from trend-line

 

The EUR/USD exchange rate is still trading on the July '12 trend-line however it is rising bullishly at the moment. We have had a surge this morning which has taken it up to 1.2980 where a thick band of resistance, including the 50-day MA is situated. If it manages to break above 1.3000 then it is possible we could see a move higher to the 1.3170 highs. It's looking less likely the trend-line will break and we will get a bearish drive lower, but a move below 1.2795 would signal a probable fall to the downside target at 1.2580.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD24b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: falling within channel

 

The USD/JPY pair has fallen from the 103.73 highs, pulling back just shy of fulfilling the 104.00 target and whilst it is possible it could go higher again to 104.00 we may count the target reached, indicating a short-term top is in place. We will probably now see a move down within the channel to the lower border-line at 100.00. I break below that would initiate a stronger bearish correction perhaps to the trend-line at roughly 97.80.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/USDJPY24b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line still supporting

 

The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading slightly above the July '12 trend-line. The thick band of resistance at 1.2980 including the 50-day MA is preventing further upside. A decisive break above 1.3000 would be necessary to trigger a stronger move higher to the 1.3170 highs. It's looking less likely the trend-line will break and we will get a bearish drive lower, but a move below 1.2795 would open up a downside target of 1.2580. Today is a holiday in the U.S and U.K so market volumes and volatility are likely to remain low.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD27.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: bouncing within a down-trend

 

The GBP/USD pair has fallen bearishly to a target from its channel breakdown and support at the recent lows. Now it has bounced and broken above a down-sloping trend-line, generating an upside target at 1.5290, which is also in the region of the support line of the box-congestion zone on the weekly chart. The monthly pivot at 1.5190 could also resist further upside. After the bounce has finished the strong down-trend is expected to resume eventually until it reaches the 1.4825 level at the recent lows and then possibly eventually the target down for the box breakout at 1.4225.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/GBPUSD27.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: on major trend-line

 

The EUR/USD pair has sold off today and fallen back down to the major July '12 trend-line, where it is being supported once again, at around the 1.2995 level. Until we get either a bounce higher or a clear break below this trend-line the direction of the trend is in question. A break below the 1.2820 lows would probably see a major sell-off down to 1.2580 and then probably further down to major support at 1.2150. A decisive move above the thick band of MA's and pivots at 1.3000 and a break into open space above 1.3030 would probably lead to a move up to the highs at 1.3205.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD28.png

Edited May 28, 2013 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line broken

 

Eurodollar has broken below the major trend-line from the July '12 lows which has been supporting price action for eight days now. The overall picture is bearish, although today's activity has seen a rebound back up to the underside of the same trend-line - now a resistance zone. A break below the 1.2820 lows would offer bearish confirmation of a move lower to 1.2580 – and perhaps even lower. Without the confirmatory break however there remains the possibility the July '12 trend-line could hold and provide a platform for a rebound higher, first to tough resistance at 1.3030 and then if breached to to the 1.3210 highs.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD29.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: down-trend continues

 

Cable has formed a possible double bottom at the current lows although its too early to say and the overall trend remains biased to the downside. A re-break of the 1.5007 lows would signal a continuation lower and probably down to the 1.4825 lows. This could be the end of a 5th Elliot wave of a larger wave down from January, which started at 1.6318. The second low of the double bottom is converging bullishly with with MACD and RSI although not acutely and so a rebound is a possibility. A break above the neckline at 1.5155 would give strong confirmation and potentially trigger a rise up to a target at 1.5285 where the 50-day also happens to be.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/GBPUSD29.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: top of range

 

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating at the level of the July '12 trend-line after yesterday's breakdown proved false and the exchange rate rebounded back up above the line and into the group of resistance lines, including the 50-day MA at 1.2985. I expect to see prices fall from the current range highs back down to the lows at 1.2890 and then eventually break below the trend-line, with a move below 1.2835-20 confirming, and follow-through down to 1.2580. There is substantial resistance above the current level of prices and so to reach clear blue skies would require a decisive move above 1.3030, with a target then a 1.3205.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: monthly pivot supporting

 

The USD/JPY pair has been trying unsuccessfully to penetrate support from the monthly pivot at the 100.68 level. It has not quite pushed through on its second attempt but it is close. Momentum is converging bullishly on the two down-legs, so if it fails there could be a rebound, with a move up to 101.58. There has already been a bearish break below the trend-line and so a move below the 100.46 lows could signal a breakdown and see the pair fall all the way down to a nexus of support lines at 99.35 composed of the borders of an old triangle, and perhaps even the 50-day MA at 98.80. At the moment the short-term trend is down so a bearish move lower is the more probable.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/USDJPY30c.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bounce higher

 

The EUR/USD pair has bounced off the major trend-line from the July '12 lows. It is currently encountering resistance from the 200-day MA at 1.3025-30, although its starting to break tentatively above. If it manages to break higher then it will probably rally up to the down-sloping trend-line from the Jan '13 highs at 1.3060; a break above that, however, would be key in confirming an up-trend and targeting 1.3295 at first. For bears to get interested they would require a break below the the 1.2795 lows, although the former 1.2745 lows could provide initial support, followed by the downside target at 1.2580.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: rally ending?

 

On the GBP/USD pair the double bottom price pattern at the recent lows turned out to be valid and the exchange rate broke the neckline and rose to the target at 1.5280 at the level of the 50-day MA. Given the broader down-trend and resistance from the 50-day MA there is a strong possibility the pair may have reached a turning point and the larger bear trend will resume, however, there is no sign from price action yet that this is the case, so the short-term rally could still push higher. A clean break above the MA would lead to a move up to 1.5366, whilst a move back down would target the 1.5005 lows.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/06 - 13/GBPUSD03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: tight range unfolding

 

The EUR/USD pair is still pushing up against the down-sloping trend-line drawn from the January highs. We have not had a clear and decisive break above but over time it has nudged higher and moved above the trend-line. The current sideways consolidation forming on the hourly chart is probably due to traders waiting for employment data, including ADP Employment change today and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The range highs are at 1.3107 and lows at 1.3040: a break above either of these levels would indicate a continuation in that direction, with an upside target at 1.3170 and downside to 1.2975, although there is much support around 1.3000, including the monthly pivot and the 50-day MA which could get in the way of downside.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: continuation higher possible

 

The GBP/USD pair is moving higher again today and pushing up against resistance from the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the previous down-move. It will probably continue rising and possibly reach the 1.5530 consolidation area as a preliminary target. There is also a continuation pattern which is indicating more upside, although it would require a break above Monday's 1.5375 highs for confirmation. Alternatively, there is also the possibility that today's move up is the second part of a double-top reversal pattern visible on the 4-hour charts, with a neckline at 1.5272 and a downside target at 1.5175.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line broken

 

We have seen two daily closes above the down-sloping trend-line from the Jan highs and despite a lack of momentum it is now quite possible the trend-line is broken and there will be a continuation higher with a target at 1.3325. Today's price action so far has also been bullish although now it is hitting resistance from old highs at 1.3125, however, these will probably give way eventually as rates go higher and the next real resistance level is at the R1 monthly pivot at former highs at 1.3225. As far downside goes, I'd be looking for a decisive break below 1.3040 before taking a more bearish stance, although there is now much support underpinning at 1.3000. Today could be volatile due to central bank meetings and ECB's press conference afterwards.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: double-bottom on support

 

The USD/JPY pair has fallen to support from both the 50-day MA and a trend-line at 98.90. It has consolidated and formed what could possibly be a double bottom chart pattern. Overall the evidence seems to point to a possible bounce from here and a break above the neckline of the pattern at 100.40 would confirm this and lead to a move up to a target at 101.83 as the broader up-trend resumes. A decisive break below the 99.00 lows would be key, however, and see prices push lower, to perhaps the 97.00 level where the weekly and monthly pivots conjoin and it could stop to pause and consolidate.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: possible flag

 

After yesterday's spike higher eurodollar has settled down and is consolidating ahead of today's Non-Farm Payrolls. There is the chance we may see a correction since the target from the Jan trend-line break has almost been met now. The problem is that the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3222 is lending support and is likely to prevent further downside. The flat nature of the consolidation and its lack of bearish momentum indicates there will probably be a continuation higher, with a break above the current 1.3305 highs perhaps leading to rally to an upside target at 1.3455, which also happens to be where the R2 monthly pivot is situated.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidation ahead of key data

 

Cable spiked higher yesterday after the dollar weakened suddenly as a result of a worsening outlook. The pair has since pulled back slightly and gone sideways as traders take profits and wait for the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) release later today during the U.S session. This sideways consolidation could be interpreted as a flag or pennant continuation pattern with a the potential for another leg higher reaching an upside target at 1.5810, and confirmation possibly from a breach above the 1.5683 spike highs. A combination of both the weekly and monthly pivots at 1.5524 provide solid support and limit downside expectations. Finally, NFPs will probably cause substantial volatility.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correcting back

 

The EUR/USD pair continues to pull back and has now broken below the monthly pivot at 1.3225 and is still falling. It has come back a Fibonacci 23.6% of the overall length of the rally and is currently meeting support from previous highs at the same level. It will probably continue falling further, with a down-side target at 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.3105, which is also at the 100-day MA, and constitutes the most significant downside target currently on the horizon. Alternatively, a bullish break above the 1.3305 highs would provide confirmation for a a resumption of upside and a target at 1.3455.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: possible bullish reversal

 

The USD/JPY pair has formed a bullish long-wick hammer candlestick on the daily chart supported by the trend-line at 97.05 and has started rebounding today. It will probably continue and go even higher given the strength of the reversal signal. Initially, however, there is some tough resistance to overcome at the 50-day MA situated at 99.35, and after that further resistance from pivots at 100.40. Although less likely – there is a chance there could be a break down from here again and the down-trend will resume, however, the trend-line supporting at 97.50 is likely to provide support initially.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: pennant forming

 

The GBP/USD pair has paused after a strong up-move. It is currently consolidating in a possible pennant pattern which will probably break higher. The 200-day MA is at 1.5700 and will probably provide strong resistance to further upside but nevertheless it will probably be broken in time and lead to a move higher, with an eventual target at the level of resistance from the lower border of the triangle pattern at 1.5870.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: tentative break higher

 

The EUR/USD pair has broken above the recent spike highs at 1.3305 and continued rising. There is a possibility that it will carry on up to the next target at 1.3430, or possibly even 1.3450 where the monthly pivot is located. However, the break out seems weak and momentum is diverging bearishly so it is also possible we may see a move back down into the range. A clean break below the trend-line currently at 1.3270 would probably indicate a downside reach to support at 1.3200.