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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

The level of German Industrial Orders Down in August

Monday, October 6, 2014

 

The level of industrial orders in Germany scored its biggest drop since the peak of the global financial crisis in August 2009 due to a slowing economy and uncertainty caused by the eurozone crisis abroad, according to data from the Ministry of Economy on Monday. Orders fell as much as 5.7% on a monthly basis, far exceeding analysts' estimates for a decline of 2.5%. The level of orders from the euro zone fell as much as 5.7% while domestic orders fell as much as 2.0%. Data for July was revised separately reported an increase of 4.8% from 4.6% previously.

 

"It shows the obstacles for the fourth quarter," said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING. "Not only the anxiety factor Putin, Germany is also under pressure from weaker countries in the eurozone." German economy started the year with a strong but contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter and a number of economists have warned that Germany could return to contract in the third quarter, pushing it into technical recession.

 

The bad news came when Germany faced pressure from other countries in the euro zone and Europen Central Bank to increase spending to help drive economic growth in Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government has said that Germany has little room for stimulus remembering his promise to balance the budget next year. Media reports at the weekend said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will this week cut its forecasts for German GDP in 2014 and 2015 to approximately 1.5% for each year as a result of the crisis in Ukraine and the Middle East.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Industrial Output Drops in August

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

 

The level of industrial production in Germany fell more than economists forecast in August, the latest signal that the outlook for Europe's largest economy is deteriorating. The level of production fell by 4% from July, when expanded by 1.6%, according to the Minister of Economy in Berlin today. This figure is the biggest decline since January 2009 and compared with an estimated decrease of 1.5%. Germany's economy began to slow as the slowdown in the growth rate of the euro zone, its largest export market, and political tensions with Russia pressing investor confidence. The European Central Bank has poured stimulus to sustain the recovery while asking for the regional governments of the countries in the euro zone to carry the structural reforms.

 

"The German economy will grow weaker in the second half of this year," said Ralph Solveen, head of economic research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, who expects third-quarter GDP will be flat. "And given the weakening trend in the level of order, we will estimate a progress in the last quarter of this year. "investment goods output fell as much as 8.8% in August and intermediate goods fell as much as 1.9%, according to a report today. Levels of production of consumer goods fell as much as 0.4% and construction was down by 2%. energy output only rose, rose as much as 0.3%.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

Two New Data Indicate Slowing German Economy

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

 

Trend continued economic slowdown in Germany in August 2014, this fact is reflected in the release of data production factories, the figure declined sharply.

 

Figures German industrial output fell in August. In calculating adjusted, factory output fell 4.0% compared to the data of the previous month. The rate of decline also exceeded analysts' expectations in the market, which predicts a decrease of 1.5% (Dow Jones Newswires survey). As for the production month of July, the figure was also revised down from 1.9% to 1.6%.

 

Industrial output data release worsen the economic climate in Germany. One day before (Monday, 10.06), the number of manufacturing orders also fell 5.7% in August. Although the amount of data does not automatically order items correlated with production figures, the report further strengthens the assumption that the country's economic growth is being stalled.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Manufacturing Production Slows in August

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

 

UK factory output slowed in August, driven by the automotive manufacturers to reduce production during the summer at a time when exports remained slow.

 

According to data released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics, manufacturing output slowed to 0.1% on a monthly growth rate, is below the 0.3% in the July report. However, the annual rate, manufacturing still fared better than in August 2013 with an increase of 3.9% compared with a revised 3.5%.

 

The figure according to the median of economists' expectations, which uses the previous survey to estimate the industrial sector lost momentum: the latest PMI Index for September showed that UK manufacturing slowed further, with export growth was at the slowest pace since they began their rise to 18 months ago.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

OECD Leading Indicators signal a slowdown in the Euro Zone

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

 

Euro zone economic growth heading towards a slowdown, although most of the major economies will still show moderate growth over the next few months, referring to the release of the main indicators of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Wednesday.

 

Future economic activity index shows growth in the OECD most developed countries such as the USA and the UK will still be around at current levels, with the main indicators of the composite 34 member states unchanged at 100.4 in August.

 

India being the only major economy that show an increase in the main indicators, which signaled to the accelerated growth in the coming months. While the main indicators for China and Brazil reportedly stable.

 

For Japan, the main indicators show growth is losing momentum. Japan's economy surged in the first quarter, before the sales tax increase in April, as households stepped up purchases. But then to contract sharply in the 2nd quarter.

 

OECD main indicators are designed to provide early signals a turning point between expansion and slowdown of economic activity, which are based on various data series is usually used as the signal changes in economic activity.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Halifax: UK House Prices Rise in Foreign Expectations

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

 

UK house prices rose faster than expected in September, although the market appears to be slowing down towards next year, according to a survey from Halifax on Wednesday. House prices rose as much as 0.6% last month, exceeding analysts' estimates for a gain of 0.2%, and compared with no growth in the month of August. In the three months to September, house prices rose by 9.6% on an annual basis, down slightly from 9.7% in the period of 3 months to August. Halifax mengatkan high house price increases in a number of cities in the UK, weak growth rate of wages and the possibility of rising interest rates in the coming months appears to have suppressed levels of demand.

 

"The annual rate of house price inflation will probably peak at around 10%," said Martin Ellis, housing economist at Halifax. "The slowing pace of growth is likely to occur in the remainder of 2014 and into next year as supply and demand become more balanced." Halifax mengatkan average price of homes in the UK now stands at 188.188 pounds.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

The level of German exports plunge in August

Thursday, October 9, 2014

 

The level of German exports plunged as much as 5.8% in August, the biggest drop since the peak of the global financial crisis in January 2009, the latest signal that Europe's largest economy is slowing amid the weakening of the euro zone crisis is widely and abroad. The Federal Statistics Office said the summer holiday which falls late in a number of states in Germany bekontribusi a decrease in the level of exports and imports, but the data still showed a poor outlook for Germany following a sharp decline in the level of orders and industrial output earlier this week.

 

The data show the level of imports fell as much as 1.3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.0%. The level of exports is expected to fall as much as 4.0%. The trade surplus is at 17.5 billion euros, down from 22.2 billion euros in July and below a forecast of 18.5 billion euros.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

 

French Trade Deficit Widens in August

Thursday, October 9, 2014

 

French trade deficit widened in August from July as exports hurt by trade is slowing, the data show by French customs on Thursday.

 

Exports from the country with the second largest economy in the euro zone fell in all key areas including the cost of equipment, chemicals, refined oil, wheat and equipment industry, reported by the customs office.

 

Imports also fell, but at a slower rate, resulting in a trade deficit of 5.78 billion euros in August after a deficit of 5:53 billion euros in July.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

BOE Hold Interest Rate At 0.5% Level

Thursday, October 9, 2014

 

Bank of England holds benchmark rate at a record low as the economy in the Eurozone is faltering and domestic growth is showing signs of losing momentum.

 

Recent weakening in the economy has given effect to the arguments of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that need more time to shore up the recovery. In the current nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is divided on the need for Rev interest rates at the last two meetings, most choose to keep the benchmark rate at the level of 0.5% on the day.

 

The split voice may still occur after officials charged weaker data on a report that showed the economy bounce back to peak levels before the recession faster than expected. Losing momentum has urged investors to push back bets on a rate hike for the first time.

 

"The weakening economy in Europe will be on their radar," said Victoria Clarke, an economist at Investec Securities in London. "Any further weakness in the data will probably be the final nail in the coffin for any speculation, including our own, of a rate hike in November."

 

BOE officials to promote their meeting for two days and will give the conclusion of the discussion yesterday to allow some of them to attend meetings with the International Monetary Fund in Washington. Futures contracts show that traders are betting on a 25bps hike in August, compared with the month of May when the last BOE meeting.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Increase in Interest Rate Risk of Delayed England

Friday, October 10, 2014

 

The risk of a new recession in the eurozone and concerns of the United States is pressing the Federal Reserve rate hike expectations for the time first time in the UK, and potentially delaying the increase. Bank of England, as expected, kept interest rates at a record low 0.5% on Thursday, the same level since the financial crisis. Although the UK economy has soared since mid-2013, the Bank of England kept interest rates due lemhanya growth rate of wages and inflation is below the target of 2%. So far, only 2 of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee who voted for a rate hike. However, expectations that interest rates may begin to rise in February next year is strengthening.

 

Currently the UK central bank officials are paying close attention to the conditions in the euro zone and terutana in Germany, which this week announced economic data is much weaker than expected. Also reinforces the notion that interest rates will rise more slowly than expected lately is the Fed who voiced concerns about the negative impact on the economy of the United States of a slowdown in Europe and Asia.

British Finance Minister George Osborne suggested that the European Central Bank to do more to boost growth, despite concerns about the risks of a German government bond purchases by the central bank, the most powerful stimulus that exists. "We need a credible fiscal plan, and Germany will agree on this, but I think we also need the European Central Bank to help," he said on the BBC.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

Germany estimated Will Cuts Growth Projections

Friday, October 10, 2014

 

The German government will cut its economic growth projections for 2014 and 2015 next week, according to two sources in the ruling coalition, in which one of them said the growth outlook for 2014 and 2015 will be cut to about 1:25%. "It's just a guesstimate," said one source. A second source said that there will be a "deep cuts" in government semiannual forecast, released last April, which is 1.8% for this year and 2.0% next year.

 

Germany started the year strongly, but revised down seems inevitable after a contraction of 0.2% in the second quarter and the number of bad data, including a drop in the export sector, refers to the stagnation in the third quarter. This week, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for Germany to 1.4% in 2014 and 1.5% for 2015 and renowned research institutes jgua cut their estimates to 1.3% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2015, senior administration officials will meet on the day Monday to discuss projections which will be announced by the Minister of Economy Sigmar Gabriel on Tuesday, which will be the basis for the estimation of the new tax.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

 

French Industrial Production Stagnant in August

Friday, October 10, 2014

 

French Industrial production stagnated in August, it added concerns over the economic health of the wider euro zone in the third quarter of this year.

 

The data came after the French were weak countries with the largest economies in the euro zone, namely Germany, reported earlier this week that their industrial production fell in August at the sharpest rate since 2009.

 

French industrial production unchanged in August from July, when it rose 0.3% for the month on a monthly basis. Analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal earlier expected to increase slightly by 0.1% for the month of August.

 

In the overall industrial production figures, the French manufacturing fell by 0.2% in August from July, it marked the second straight monthly decline.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Government Selling Shares in Eurostar

Monday, October 13, 2014

 

The British government plans to sell 40% stake in the rail operator Eurostar fast pace that connects Britain with the European contingent, according to Finance Minister George Osborne's announcement on Sunday night. Osborne open bids until 31 October, and if the bid is high enough that the plan will achieve finalization of the deal in the first quarter of next year. The sale, which according to sources in March could reach 300 million pounds (500 million dollars), is part of the government's plan to sell the corporate and financial assets worth 20 billion dollars from 2014 to 2020.

 

"I am confident that we made ​​the decision to reform the UK economy and tackle the debt," said Osborne, in the United States. "The success of the sale will be an important contribution in the effort to reduce the public sector debt."

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

 

Italian Industrial Production Grew Below Expectations in August

Monday, October 13, 2014

 

Italy's industrial production rose but slightly below analysts' expectations for the month of August, although the production of nearly all products rise, led by consumer goods sector.

 

Industrial production in the country with the third largest economy in the euro zone rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis, in the report by the Italian statistics bureau Istat on Friday. The median estimate of five economists surveyed by Dow Jones News Wire expects production to rise 0.4% in August.

 

The increase was led by a 2.3% surge in the consumer goods sector, which was seen as a key driver of economic recovery of Italy, followed by an increase of 1.6% in the investment goods sector and a 0.2% increase in the sector of semi-finished goods , in the topical report Istat.

 

Production of energy fell by 0.3% in August from July, the data show the Istat.

 

Italian industrial production contracted by 0.7% at an annual rate in July in working-day adjusted, in the report by Istat.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Noyer: "QE Private" From ECB Will Increase the Amount of Credit

Monday, October 13, 2014

 

European Central Bank's plan to purchase the assets of the securities in which it is set with a large number will increase credit to the companies in the Euro zone, the Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer told French newspaper Le Figaro on Monday.

 

Noyer said the ECB plans to allow banks to have capital that is not bataskan for securities lending after removing them from the balance sheet and will help develop the market for financial instruments that could give the company an additional funding source, in the report by Le Figaro.

 

The amount of purchase will be "very important" although it will depend on market activity and the owner's willingness to sell, the newspaper said in a statement cited Noyer.

 

Governor of the Bank of France also said that the decision of S & P to cut France's credit rating outlook to negative from a stable AA is a warning to the French government to take effective measures to cut deficits

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

ZEW: Hit Prolonged Uncertainty German Economic Sentiment

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

 

Mood German economy worsened in October, with the ZEW economic sentiment indicator slipped into negative territory for the first time since November 2012 German sentiment index dropped to minus 3.6 from 6.9 in September.

 

"Geopolitical tensions and economic development in some parts of the Euro zone that dipped well below earlier expectations had been presenting prolonged uncertainty," said ZEW President, Clemens Fuest, on Tuesday.

 

In line with the data for Germany, ZEW indicator of economic sentiment also reported block euro fell to 4.1 in October from 10.1 last month.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Inflation Slows in September

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

 

The rate of price increases in the UK in September slower than economists forecast, so feed that space for the Bank of England to keep interest rates low for longer amid the global economic slowdown. Last week the Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.5%. Market participants estimate the BOE will raise interest rates in early 2015, but the slowdown in UK economic activity economic slowdown affected the euro zone, and weak inflation may dampen the expectations.

 

Office for National Statistics reported annual inflation slowed to 1.2% in September, from August at 1.5% and lower than economists' forecast of 1.4%. The price increase in September was the lowest since September 2009, while from August, inflation rose 0.5%.

 

The decline in fuel prices by 6% of the decline was the largest contributor to inflation, lower fuel prices lower the cost of transportation, followed by a decline in food prices. Core inflation that excludes energy products, food, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco in the calculations showed an increase of 1.5%, but remained at the lowest level since April 2009.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

Germany Cuts Growth Projections 2014 & 2015

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

 

Global economic slowdown amid a series of international crises have forced the German government cut its growth forecast for this year and next year. Steps are also taken following data worsening in Europe's largest economy.

 

German Economy Ministry lowered its economic growth forecast for 2014 to 1.2% from its earlier projection of 1.8%. For 2015, cut its economic growth forecast to 1.3% from 2%.

 

"The German economy was in the middle of a wave due to the weakening of foreign trade," said Sigmar Gabriel, Minister of Economy and Energy, in a statement Tuesday.

 

The decline projected for the year 2014 has been widely expected after the Minister of Economy, said in a radio interview last September, warned that if economic growth was at risk of a slower than projected 1.8% as a result of tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

 

In a statement Tuesday the German Economy Ministry also said that achieving better growth for next year will depend on how far the international factors improved, although the job market and domestic demand in Germany is expected to remain strong

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

Merkel Government Budget Risk In Decline Projected Growth

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged to forgo any new loans next year for the first time since 1969 that where possible it would be a risk after the government on Tuesday cut its economic growth forecasts on the outlook for a decline in German exports.

 

Germany, which is the country with the largest economy in the euro zone is likely to grow by 1.2% this year and 1.3% in 2015, it marks the approximate decline of 1.8% and 2.0% for each of the last April, it was reported by Minister of Economic Affairs on Tuesday in a biennial review reports. Economic growth in the first quarter by 0.7% which had sparked optimism that the government that they can make their budgets balance.

 

Export "is currently in difficult conditions," hit by geopolitical developments including the Ukrainian crisis, Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said in a statement on electronic mail. Social Democratic Party, the party which is the latest partner in Merkel's government, urging the coalition transform and increase infrastructure spending to support demand.

 

Estimates indicate that Merkel plans to balance the budget on to the latest indicator of the euro zone may be creating doubt unless the economy grows faster. Merkel ignores call earlier this month from its partners in the eurozone and the IMF to spend more money to prevent weakening growth. Gabriel said that he still expected the government will balance their balance sheets, although the reduction of economic growth "will impact" on the budget, he said on Tuesday at a press conference in Berlin, without give a more detailed description.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Economic Policy Will not Change

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

 

In a closed meeting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel uttered will not raise public spending to stimulate the economy, Bloomberg reported citing political party officials who attended the meeting. Other resource persons Bloomberg uttered that Merkel reiterated the importance that the European Union is run rules and the importance of the German attitude. German fiscal policy will not change because it can provide an excuse for other countries to also change their fiscal stance.

 

Bloomberg reports that can sinyalkan that Germany will not change its economic policies. Berlin run a balanced budget principle in which the amount of government spending equal to the amount of his income. However, serangkaina latest economic data signaled the threat of an economic slowdown in Germany. The German government even cut its outlook for economic growth in Germany to 1.2% and 1.3% for 2014 and 2015, however, Germany seems reluctant to run fiscal policy to spur economic growth

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

Swiss Economic Outlook Worsens In October

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

 

Swiss economic expectations slumped to 2-year lows in October as financial analysts worried if a sharp slowdown in growth in the Euro zone will be extended to the Alpine country.

 

Report ZEW Institute and Credit Suisse Group on Wednesday showed the main index investor and analyst expectations dropped to its lowest level since September 2012 to minus 30.7 from minus 7.7 in the last month. Negative numbers indicate more correspondent who predicts the economy will deteriorate, compared to the expected improvement.

 

The report is also consistent with the results of the ZEW survey in Germany, the main export markets of Switzerland, which also showed a decrease in the index of economic sentiment in October.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

The risk of sticking Debt Crisis, EU Begin Examination of Budget

Thursday, October 16, 2014

 

EU to start checking for 2 weeks against the government's draft budget in line with the emergence of the euro zone debt crisis back nightmares risk areas hamper the economic recovery currently underway. As the increase in 10-year bond yields in the European countries with the highest debt soared yesterday, led by Greece to Portugal, Ireland, and Italy, the European Commission began the process of separation 2015 spending plan, trying to tame what could potentially be a fiscal time bomb .

 

"Certainly the success or failure in this process is whether Europe can avoid a scenario like in Japan, or secular stagnation," said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Peterson Institute officials on. European stocks tumbled the most in three years as a sell-off in Greek bonds triggered divisions in government bonds over benchmark yield, which includes Germany and France, fell to a record low as investors sought the safest assets.

French and Italian budget is expected to be the biggest problem for tightening regulatory bodies in the EU, due to the French budget deficit is expected to reach its target in less than 2 years, and since the rate of the structural deficit cuts Italy slower than that requested by the European Commission. "Maybe later we can go faster," said French Finance Minister Michel Sapin ahead of a meeting in Luxembourg this week. "But this time, with half of the expected growth rate, and the rate of inflation slowed sharply, we can not cut our deficit in the same pace."

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Unemployment Rate Dropped in August

Thursday, October 16, 2014

 

UK Office for National Statistics reported the unemployment rate fell to England in the last six years, while wage levels rose in two consecutive months. The unemployment rate is based upon the measurement of the International Labor Organization methods fell to 6.0% in the three months of the expiration of August, from 6.2% the previous month. While economists had expected the unemployment rate of 6.1%. While in the same period reported salary levels rose 0.7%.

 

Although employment data continues menunjukkam improvement, but still no signs of slowing. the number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits decreased by 18,600 in September, lower than the estimated reduction of 34,200 by economists. The decline was the lowest since April 2013, and the addition of low quartalan workforce over the past year

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

ECB Liquidity Plan Offering Extra For Greek Banks

Thursday, October 16, 2014

 

European Central Bank is considering a plan to increase the availability of funding for Greek banks are still dependent on the ECB needs their cash, according to an official of the Greek central bank on Thursday. A move that is expected to help prop up the Greek banking sector difficulties.

 

Although agreement has not been made ​​official, informal agreement appears to have been reached at a meeting in Frankfurt on Wednesday, which was attended by ECB President Mario Draghi and Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras. Official approval of the new possibilities will be issued in the Board of Governors of the ECB meeting on 6th November, according to the official.

 

If eventually approved, the ECB will disburse approximately € 12 billion ($ 15.2 billion) of additional liquidity for the four largest Greek banks like the National Bank of Greece SA, Piraeus Bank SA, Eurobank Ergasias SA and Alpha Bank. This discourse emerged as the European market, and in particular the Greek market, was shaken by concerns about the pace of economic recovery from the European debt crisis recently.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

Markets Back Anxiety With Greece

Friday, October 17th, 2014

 

Greek government bond borrowing costs soared on Thursday as investors returned to the dismay of the euro zone members. Yields on Greek government bonds of 10-year peak at 8.9%; exceed the psychological level of 7% for the first time since January. The surge in borrowing costs is making investors anxious about the return of the euro-zone debt crisis and this is also reflected in the increase in the cost of borrowing bonds troubled euro zone members such as Portugal, Spain, and Italy.

 

Investors are increasingly worried about the outlook for government funding and political risk Greece. Athens has uttered a desire to end the bailout program a year early in 2015, but with yields surging back will be difficult for Athens to meet its funding needs. Markets are also worried about the outlook for corporate funding Greece given the ECB has pointed out that Greece needs to stay abreast of the bailout program if the bonds want to be covered in the ABS bond purchase plan launched by the European Central Bank.

 

Investors are also worried by the prospect of early elections in Greece despite Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has won a vote of confidence from parliament at the weekend. Excellence coalition supporting Samaras is quite thin with a total of only 155 seats Samaras needs to get the support of 180 MPs to stand for president in elections in February 2015. If Samaras failed to garner the support of the Greek can carry out an early election, but recent surveys show party Alexis Tsipras will come out a winner if there is an early election. Markets worry if Tsipras lead Greece to remember the Syriza party leaders want the Greek debt relief or threatened to take Greece out of the euro-zon

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