News and Reviews European Economic Zone

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

Stagnant Swiss economy in Second Quarter

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

 

Swiss economy stagnated in the second quarter, according to data released Tuesday. Slow growth rate in consumer spending failed to cover the weakening exports of machinery due to the falling demand in the European market. Gross domestic product in the three months to June was unchanged from the previous quarter and rose 0.6% to an annual rate, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. This falls below economists' estimates for the rate of increase of 0.6% quarterly and annual expansion rate of 1.8% the first quarter .On Swiss economy grew by a quarterly rate of 0.5% and an annual rate of 2.1%, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

 

Swiss export sector growth rate in the second quarter slowed to 0.6% from 2.3% in the first quarter with an increase in the rate of export of jewelery failed to menutui decline in exports of industrial goods. Slowdown in the second quarter more or less in line with the current industry index released on Monday which fell for the first time in three months in August. Ministry of Economic Affairs, which is currently estimated to Swiss GDP grew by 2.0% this year and 2.6% in 2015, will renew GDP projections, inflation, and the unemployment rate on the 16 October. Swiss central bank estimates the economy will expand at a rate of about 2% this year and will provide an update on current projections hold its quarterly policy review on 18 September.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

EU figures Producer Prices Back Down

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

 

Low inflation climate would still hit European countries in the next few months. This indication is reflected in the results of the data producer prices for the period of August 2014.

 

According to the Statistical Office of the European Union some time ago, producer prices dropped 0.1% compared to 1.1% in June and July compared nicks. For the record, June is the only period in which producer prices rose in 2014.

 

These data indicate that the decrease in the level of consumer prices also will not go up in the near future. Official data Eurostat Friday said that the average annual inflation fell from 0.4% to 0.3% in August 2014, it was the lowest level since October 2009 and well below the central bank's inflation target, <2%.

 

With the instructions of the latest economic data, market participants estimate the European Central Bank (ECB) will issue the monetary stimulus at its meeting this month. As a first step, the central bank has room to launch mini packs a decrease in interest rates before the policy spawned a more aggressive bond purchases.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

Greek Economy Predicted Positive Start in Third Quarter

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

 

Rate the economy began to be felt in Greece. Countries that had suffered a financial crisis and bailout billions of euros enjoy this possibility can re-record growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter.

 

Symptoms of economic activity in Greece seen from the Investment Bank of Greece a few moments ago. Greece's economy slowed 0.3% in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2013 Fact impairment is increasingly fulfilling the country's GDP for 24 quarters in a row.

 

Even so, the ratio of GDP decline 0.3% was the lowest since the third quarter of 2008 Not surprisingly optimistic economists began predicting this country soon recorded his first economic growth in the third quarter of 2014, which is now underway. "The economic slowdown is the lowest 0.3%, in the next quarterly report maybe we will see expansion," said commentator Investment Bank of Greece. Return of interest of foreign tourists to travel to the Greek capital will be a valuable economic acceleration.

 

Estimates of economic growth version 'flash' will be released in mid-November. Both the Greek government and creditors comprising the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund is targeting economic growth in 2014 reached 0.6%. If achievement can be maintained then the GDP is quite realistic targets achieved by Greece.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Construction Growth in the UK has soared During July

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

 

UK construction growth unexpectedly accelerated last month and the number of employees rose to near a record high, in the report by Markit Economics.

 

Purchasing managers' index rose to 64 from 62.4 in July, Markit said by in London on this day. It was the strongest reading since January, when it became the highest reading since 2007 Economists had expected to decline to 61.5, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

 

The survey results are contrary to reports yesterday showed UK manufacturing expanded at a rate that is too late in 14 months in August. With the growth of the plant which is under pressure from geopolitical tensions, construction report showed continued strengthening in domestic demand, particularly in the construction of houses.

 

The index for residential construction was at 66.4 in August, it is the strongest of the three reading sub-sectors in the Markit report. The index hit level 68 in July, it is the highest level in more than a decade.

 

"The increase is widely in demand in the construction sector has created an explosion in job creation this summer, as construction companies look to replace the lost capacity after the recession," said Timo Moore, an economist at Markit London.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK service sector accelerated in the month of August

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

 

UK service sector growth unexpectedly accelerated in August, against a slowdown in the manufacturing sector and strengthen the recovery dependence on domestic demand.

 

Purchasing Managers Index from Markit Economics rose to the highest level in 10 months at 60.5 from 59.1 in July. Economists estimate for a decline to 58.5, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Markit said that the index, along with the survey and construction of the plant, indicating that the economy will grow about 0.8% in the current quarter, in line with the previous three-month period.

 

Coupled with the increase in construction activity, a report from the services sector showed a natural imbalance in the nature of recovery. Manufacturing and exports are under pressure from the stagnant economy and the euro zone tensions related to the conflict in Ukraine. Imbalance of growth may help Governor of the Bank of England to keep borrowing costs at record lows when policy makers begin their two-day meeting today.

 

"Anxiety emerged as the growth is still too dependent on the domestic economy, as well as increasing the risk that higher interest rates could derail the recovery," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit in London. "Any hope of a balance back to back connected with exports rising crisis in Ukraine."

 

The pound rose against the dollar after the report and traded at $ 1.6485 at 16:46 pm, the pound has appreciated by 0.1% on the day.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Eurozone PMI Slump to Lowest Level in 2014

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

 

Euro-zone private sector activity slowed more sharply than the initial estimate in August, with France and Italy suffered a decline, which reduced the probability for the single currency to get out of a prolonged slowdown phase.

 

Towards the monthly policy meeting of the European Central Bank, the results of a survey of 5,000 manufacturers and service providers shows if the price cuts in the business sector are still happening.

 

Markit report on Wednesday showed the composite Purchasing Managers Index, which measures activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, fell to 52.5 last month from 53.8 in July. In addition to lower than the initial estimate of 52.8, the figure is also the lowest for the year 2014.

 

Economic bloc-18 countries has stagnated during the period from April to June, after experiencing a slower growth in the first quarter of this year. PMI for July and August indicate accelerated growth is not likely to occur in the 3rd quarter, which adds to the pressure on the ECB to take immediate additional stimulus measures to boost growth and inflation

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

EU Commission Will Drop New Sanctions to Russia

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

 

Euro zone policy makers seem to continue the path of international isolation, especially Country Russia with the West without waiting for confirmation of the achievement of a permanent ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

 

The EU Commission will submit a proposal reportedly the latest sanctions on Russia tonight, is likely to target the corporate sector is complicated in Russia for a loan capital and technology from abroad, as a punishment on political attitudes Moscow who often intervened in Ukraine.

 

Previous Western countries accuse Moscow sent its troops into the Ukraine border, so that Ukrainian civil war which lasted 5 months gives the advantage to the rebels who now control the main facility. Russia has denied that its forces were involved, although the Western Countries and Ukraine claimed to have authentic evidence.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Factory Orders Streaking in July

Thursday, September 4, 2014

 

German Economy Ministry reported German factory orders rose higher than expected in July. Total orders rose 4.6% from the previous month, the increase above economists' forecasts of 1.6%. While orders in June was revised to -2.7% from -3.2% the previous release.

 

The data will be fresh air for the German economy, economic data previously released less slick that lowered expectations for growth in Europe's largest economy.

 

Orders from outside Germany are reported to exceed domestic orders. Foreign orders rose 6.9%, while domestic orders rose 1.7%. Among the foreign order, of the reported euro zone rose 9.8% while the euro zone rose 1.7%. Capital goods orders rose 8.5% to orders from outside the euro zone recorded the highest increase of 14.6%.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Lower ECB Interest Rate Deposit Deeper Into Negative Territory

Thursday, September 4, 2014

 

The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate by surprise from a 12:15% to 00:05%, while deposit interest rates lowered to -0.2% from -0.1%.

 

Steps taken by the ECB is likely to provide reassurance to market participants that the ECB is to overcome the weakening inflation, although there is still a risk if the ECB does not take more significant steps to address the threat of deflation.

 

Deposit rate cuts deeper into negative territory is likely to have an impact on the depreciation of the Euro / dollar has so far traded at 1.3040. Although the ECB repeatedly that the exchange rate is not the main target of his, but the EURUSD exchange rate depreciation would be beneficial to reduce the risk of deflation.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

ECB's Draghi: Quantitative Easing will be disbursed in October

Thursday, September 4, 2014

 

After the cut interest rate and the deposit rate, ECB President Draghi's press conference also adds ABS asset purchase program & portfolio of Euro denominated bonds started in October, the asset purchase program can be called as part of the QE. But QE program details will be announced on the ECB meeting on 2 October, at his press conference Draghi still refuses to answer how much the amount that will be implemented ECB QE.

 

In addition there is a unanimous vote confirms Draghi of the ECB council members to take additional monetary easing measures if necessary as the risk of inflation and the weakness of Russian geopolitical risks - with the West. Draghi's comments regarding the unanimous vote of members of the board of the ECB to disburse part of the QE shows the support of Germany.

 

In the inflation projection, the inflation outlook 2015 - 2016 is expected to increase gradually Draghi can with this new monetary easing measures and targets the CPI rate close to the target of 2%. The weakening of inflation in the Euro zone has so far largely due to the very low energy prices. While the GDP forecast cut to 0.9% for 2014, and 1.4% for 2015 due to the negative impact of geopolitical risk.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

European Unemployment Need "Decisive Steps"

Friday, September 5, 2014

 

Target the European unemployment rate is not "realistic" and needed "decisive steps" to encourage job creation rate, according to a report released by the Ambrosetti Forum ahead of the opening of the international economic conference. About 5.6 million jobs have been lost in the 28 member states of the European Union (EU) since the 2008 global financial crisis, according to economists Ambrosetti. "The economic downturn resulted in an increase in the unemployment rate in the EU, which currently requires decisive action from the government to encourage the level of demand for labor and also implement structural reforms of labor markets," according to economists in the report "Scenarios Labour Market in Europe".

 

The high unemployment rate in Europe, low inflation and stagnant growth rate is likely to be a hot topic at this year-Ambrosetti Forum annual meeting heads of state, business leaders and academic pentingi on Lake Como in Italy. Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development this week warned that its members will remain at pre-crisis levels until 2016 fastest.

The average unemployment rate reached 10.3% in the entire European Union in July, the same as in June. Nearly a quarter (24.5%) of the people of Spain do not work in July, along with 12.6 and 11.5% Italian community of Irish citizens. With statistics like that, Ambrosetti reports cast doubt on the chances of the EU can achieve the target of creating 20 million new jobs by 2020 "This seems unrealistic target for Spain, Italy, and France, and they will create as many as 4.4 million new jobs, 2.5 million, and 2 million, respectively, "according to the report.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Industrial Production Estimates Up in July

Friday, September 5, 2014

 

German industrial production rose growing on the estimates in July, giving a sign that Europe's largest economy rebounded in the third quarter of this year. German Economy Ministry said industrial production grew 1.9% from June, the rise above economists' forecasts of 0.4%. As for the month of June itself revised up to 0.4% from 0.3% the previous release.

 

Germany is the key to the euro zone's economic recovery, but Germany's own economy contracted 0.2% in the second quarter. Economic bloc of 18 countries are stagnant 0% in the second quarter, the level of confidence in the euro zone disrupted by the turmoil between Ukraine with Russia.

 

The industrial production data released on Thursday after the German Economy Ministry also reported the German factory orders rose a higher than forecast in July. Total orders rose 4.6% from the previous month, the increase above economists' forecasts of 1.6%. While orders in June was revised to -2.7% from -3.2% the previous release

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Week Ahead, Europe Flooded Bond Auction

Friday, September 5, 2014

 

European governments re-enliven the debt securities market in September 2014, financial authorities will release some 10-year bonds over the next week, including debt asset Netherlands, Austria and Germany.

 

On Tuesday next, the Netherlands issued bonds worth 1.5-2.5 billion euros with interest at 2% due July 2024 While Austria is also prepared to auction debt securities valued 1:21 combination billion with a yield of 1.65%, which expired in October 2024 and 2:40-interest bonds % which matures in May 2034.

 

Later on Wednesday, German's turn to launch a new debentures in force until August 2024, with the possibility coupon capped at 1%. Italy will also sell debt securities with longer maturity and shorter periods, the possibility of 3 years and 7 years, on Thursday. Italian authorities will announce details of its bond auction on Monday tomorrow.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Manufacturing Sector Raise Anxiety In Investment

Monday, September 8, 2014

 

Factories in the UK to be careful in raising the level of capital expenditures, according to one report trade group on Monday, raises the question whether the recent increase in the level of business investment in the long-term survival. Survey by the EEF manufacturers' group and Lombard Asset Finance showed that the bulk of the company has only a moderate investment plan in which most of the focus to replace outdated technologies in. The level of business investment, the key to boosting productivity, has been grown for 5 consecutive quarter but still below the pre-recession level and below the level of other state spending. Bank of England forward signal further increases the level of business spending as assessing whether the UK economy are in the right track for the long term.

 

"We do not see any major changes in the investment plans we need," said EEF chief economist Lee Hopley, related to uncertainty about the level of demand and a decrease in funding. Only 1 of 3 factories surveyed who said it would invest the same amount as two years ago at the factory and machine them for 2 years. Survey menunukkan a more positive outlook for the cost of training, marketing, research and development.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Offer More Power To Scotland

Monday, September 8, 2014

 

The British government attempted to respond to the results of opinion polls ahead of voting this month Scottish independence by promising some autonomy for Scotland if it chose to hang on to the United Kingdom. British Finance Minister George Osborne on Sunday said the plan will be released in the next few days to give Scotland autonomy taxes, spending and greater welfare if Scotland chose to reject independence in a referendum on 18 September. Ironically, Prime Minister David Cameron, has issued a veto against a third option for greater devolution, convinced that a clear choice between yes and no will inevitably result in the status quo as voters reluctantly memiliih uncertain future.

 

Results of YouGov survey for the Sunday Times newspaper showed support for independence has led the vote for the first time since the referendum campaign begins. With less than 2 weeks before the referendum was held, the poll results show that selecting "Yes" to get 51% of the vote for independence, and strong "No" to get 49%, reversing the advantage of 22 points in just a month.

"The plan to give more power to Scotland will be released in a few days .. Skotladia will be able to avoid the risk of separation but have greater control over their destiny, which I think is the desire of the people of Scotland," said Osborne. "More power to raise taxes, greater fiscal autonomy, more control over public spending and the level of well-being." Osborne said the changes had been approved on 3rd party majority in parliament, which could apply when there is a result of "no" referendum.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Trade Surplus Brighten Third Quarter

Monday, September 8, 2014

 

Germany reported a record high trade surplus of 22.2 billion euros (17.74 billion pounds) in July, signaling Europe's largest economy may rebound sharply in the third quarter after a shock contraction in the second quarter. Data from the Federal Statistics Office showed the trade surplus widened much more than expected as exports soared rate of 4.7%, the biggest gain since May 2012 Analysts forecast a surplus of 16.8 billion euros sbesar. Exports are expected to rise by 0.5%.

 

After the data was released in July that showed industrial orders increased output and trade data indicates the German economy may be able to avoid a recession technically in the third quarter after contracting 0.2% in the second quarter. level of imports fell by 1.8%, compared to analysts' forecasts for a decline of 0.1%.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Coeure ECB: Monetary easing strengthening euro Justify

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

 

The strengthening of the euro is the justification for looser monetary policy, said executive board member of the European Central Bank, in an interview with Benoit Coeure Robert Schuman Foundation. Coeure said that while the euro zone is not experiencing deflation, the current level ainflasi "weak, too weak", with one factor is the strengthening of the euro.

 

"Keep in mind that while the ECB said that the central bank has no target exchange rate (because the main target is for inflation) clearly it does not stop the central bank to monitor the development of the currency exchange rate in analyzing and taking action," he said in an interview released on the ECB's website. "All things should be balanced, the strengthening of the euro justify accommodative monetary policy," he added.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Industrial Production Up From Higher Expectations

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

 

UK industrial production rose higher than expected in July, signaling continued growth momentum in the third quarter of this year. Office for National Statistics said industrial output rose 0.5% in July from June, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%. While compared with July 2013, output rose 1.7%, to rise in 11 months in a row. The increase was led by higher industrial production of electricity and gas, which rose 3.6% in July.

 

While manufacturing production line with expectations rising 0.3% in July from the previous month, and 2.2% from the same period the previous year.

 

After expanding 0.8% in the second quarter, the UK economy is showing signs of a moderate recovery in the last month. Index of manufacturing activity released by Markit Ekonomics dropped to its lowest level so far this year. Eurozone economy stagnated in the second quarter is said to be the cause of one of the UK recovery slowing momentum

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

BOE Hinting rate hike in the Spring

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

 

Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, said that may have hit the target inflation and labor if the central bank started raising interest rates early next year. Carney also said the salary increase in the coming months will be the key to exactly when the Bank of England will start raising interest rates, and the increase will emphasize gradual and limited.

 

Carney said the economic recovery "exceeded all eskpetasi" and "having momentum". Based on the "normalization" of interest rates is said to have been close, and monetary policy decisions in the coming months will be to raise or maintain a more "balanced".

 

"Our recent estimates show a rise in interest rates in line with market expectations, the first increase occurred in the spring and then gradually increase it. Inflation will stabilize at around 2% and 1.2 million jobs will tercipat further. In other words, we achieve the mandate our "Carney said.

 

If this happens then the BOE will be the main central banks will raise interest rates since the financial crisis hit in 2008

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

Schaeuble Ignore Calls Stimulus Germany

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

 

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble German ignore calls for giving out stimulus to boost the euro-zone economic recovery. In front of the German parliament, Schaeuble said structural reform is the best way to encourage economic growth in Europe. France and Italy have pushed Germany to relax its fiscal policy and increase investment. The European Commission, the IMF, and the ECB's Drahghi also urged the same thing as the euro zone is now in danger of falling into the abyss of deflation.

 

Schaeuble stressed it is up to each country to undertake reforms and underestimate the benefits of greater public investment. "We can not let the illusion that all problems can be solved by allocating more public funds that could trigger a fiscal deficit. Appeal Europe to allocate more public funds and misguided fiscal deficit. economic growth and jobs can not be created through higher deficits, "Schaeuble said in a speech before the Bundestag

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Cameron Try Embraces Scotland Stay In UK

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

 

Prime Minister David Cameron stepped up his campaign in Scotland to ensure the integrity of the UK when the Scottish referendum held on Sept. 18. Cameron will do our best to reiterate for the sake of maintaining Scotland remains in the UK. "This is a decision the people of Scotland, but I want them to know that England wanted Scotland to remain part," said Cameron.

 

Cameron visits can be intimated that London anxious Scotland will decide to come out of the UK. Cameron spokesman uttered flag hoisted Scotland will participate in Downing Street, Cameron's residence, up to a referendum next week. The YouGov survey earlier in the week showed that 51% of respondents support the people of Scotland its independence from Britain.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

 

French Industrial Output Growth Slows

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

 

French industrial output growth reported two consecutive months but slowed sharply in July, but the slowdown is still better than economists estimated. INSEE reported industrial production Zoan second largest economy in the euro grew 0.2% in July from the previous month, the petumbuhan better than economists forecast that predicted a contraction of 0.4%. While growth in the previous June was revised down by 1.3% to 1.2%.

 

Despite two months of consecutive growth, industrial output in the three months to July masi contracted 0.6% from the previous three months. While manufacturing output contracted 0.3% reported in July from the previous month's 1.6% expansion

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Carney: Credibility Depends Scottish fiscal reserves

Thursday, September 11, 2014

 

Mark Carney says independent Scotland might have to raise currency reserves amounted to more than the size of the country's economy if trying to keep using sterling. With two surveys that show the referendum has been released, the British government yesterday to press the governor of the Bank of England kontingensinya plan and what the financial pressures that will face Scotland if it decided to split up. Carney said the BOE has a policy to support financial stability in the short term. "The fact is the amount of a reserve currency is one of the important factors that determine the credibility," Carney said at the Treasury Committee in London. "Reserve currency should be enough for the central bank, but also must be able to sustain the credibility of the circulation of money."

 

In a session that aims to focus on current projections the BOE, the session was dominated by concerns questions kemerderkaan Scotland. Responding to a question from Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the committee, Carney said the central bank's reserve currency should be 25% to over 100% of GDP (gross domestic product), depending on the sophistication of the economy and the size of the financial sector. Hong Kong, which has a highly developed financial sector is large and activity abroad is high, has a reserve of about 110-120% of its economic output, said Carney. Assets in the financial sector, Scotland approximately 10 times the country's GDP, he said. Scotland's economy had a total value of about 150 billion pounds (240 billion dollars)

"It's fair to estimate that the country adopts the currency should increase the amount of reserve currency, and it is a fiscal cost," said Carney. "Moreover, they have to run a balance of payments surplus." Carney did not say whether this will mean spending cuts or tax increases for the new state, saying "the question depends on the government's priority." He also refused to comment on the proportion of the British currency reserves will didabatkan by all of Scotland if the split, which must be renegotiated after voting for independence on 18 September.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

ECB's Noyer: Euro Exchange Rates Still Too High

Thursday, September 11, 2014

 

French central bank governor and board member of the ECB's Christian Noyer stated that the European Central Bank needs to continue policies that could weaken the euro currency in order to achieve its inflation target at 2%.

 

Noyer also assess the current Euro exchange rate is still too high, so the ECB's inflation target will be difficult to achieve.

 

Additionally Noyer warned that the French government plans to cut spending reinforce public, although Paris has announced on Wednesday that France deficit target of 3% of the level of economic output according the EU standards will be difficult to achieve before the year 2017.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Consumer Prices Stable in August

Thursday, September 11, 2014

 

German consumer price growth stabilized at very low levels in August, according to the Federal Statistics Office reported on Thursday, confirmed the preliminary data published last August.

 

Based on the calculation method of the European Union, consumer price inflation in Europe's largest economy grew at an annual rate of 0.8% in August. This figure is unchanged from the initial estimate and the data in July.

 

Earlier, inflation data released last August showed the annual inflation rate in the 18 countries that use the euro currency slowed to 0.3% from 0.4% in July. Which is far below the target of close to 2% of the European Central Bank.

 

These conditions have forced the ECB to cut its main interest rate by 10 basis points last week and announced the asset purchase program which is based on private sector asset-backed securities and covered bonds bank.

 

While when referring to the calculation of the national standards, the Federal Statistics Office said consumer prices stable Germany also grew at an annual rate of 0.8%. Figures in August that occurred as a sharp drop in energy prices offset by rising food prices and services.