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Well I can now say that one comment in their "White Paper" is not valid. The comment stated that using Monte Carlo simulation they determined the worst possible outcome was a no profit day, not a loss day but a day with zero profit. I posted a couple of references to that comment but there was no response.

 

Today, on a MB Traders demo account, Kangaroo finally hit a full stop loss with 6 open positions for a total loss of 363.6 pips. Individual losses varied from 37.9 pips to 90 pips and all 6 positions were sell orders for 0.50 lots.

 

Their white paper said that this hadn't happened at all during their test period and the Monte Carlo simulation seemed to suggest that it would never happen (at least that was my interpretation). Now, to their credit, their position sizing on this $10,000 demo account set to their suggested risk level of 5 resulted in a dollar loss of $187.60 including commissions and swap. So the total loss was less than 2% of the account balance which falls in my risk threshold.

 

My live account on The Collective did not take this series of trades but that could have been because a freakish problem that struck 2 VPS accounts 12,000 miles apart both running Kangaroo at the exact time Kangaroo closed some open positions. The VPS that was hosting this MB Traders demo only required a reinstall of the MT4 program. The VPS hosting my The Collective account was in such a bad shape that after 12 hours of trials, they gave up, wiped out the existing VPS account and gave me a new clean install. Odd that two VPSs dies within seconds of Kangaroo executing orders are minuscule in my book but, there is no proof that Kangaroo was at fault.

 

TulipFX says that they haven't experienced any problems.

 

In summary, Kangaroo can and probably will hit the full SL but if you stay within the prescribed risk guidelines, you will fare ok.

Edited by hitescape
typo
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This was with version 4.1. These trades were taken on my MB Traders demo account and I can provide all access to the developers if they are interested. My live account at The Collective had no trades.

 

The EA comes with a limitation of just one demo and one live account. If the developers want more feedback on how it works with different brokers they might consider allowing their customers the ability to use more than 1 demo account. I use three different ECNs and all of my EAs react differently to them. Even programs like Forex Morning Trade and Forex Combo will often take a trade on one account and not on the other two. I would like to see how Kangaroo does on all three but not at the cost of an additional license just to test it.

 

Can anyone please explain the basis for the white paper claim based on Monte Carlo Simulation that the worst day is a day with no profit??? Is this just one of those strange rules of statistics?

Edited by hitescape
clarity
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Monte Carlo Simulations are based on past results. their results have no SL's so the monte carlo does not take them into account. least that's my understanding of it.

"It is inconceivable that anyone will divulge a truly effective get-rich scheme for the price of a book."

Victor Niederhoffer (1943–), US hedge fund manager and statistician

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On a positive note, I have no problem reaching the developers by email and getting responses within 24 hours or less.

 

Many other EA's just have a single sales page on the web, with no space or pages allocated for members to comment. The sellers for those sites are here today, and gone tomorrow. And email responses from those web sites are usually "canned" responses, if you get any responses at all.

 

This EA encourages a "community" atmosphere where members can go to their web site and comment or ask questions on various issues.

 

But, I also agree that maybe December may "not" be the best month to evaluate "any" EA, and I look forward to some testing in January and February. I-)

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I too have found the customer service to be outstanding. I have made jabs at them before mainly due to my ignorance about statistical matters and my dislike of some parts of their licensing terms but even with that, they have responded to every email quickly and courteously.

 

Yesterday they told me that the EA has gone into Holiday mode and will be out partying and not trading until January 3. So don't expect any updates until next year.

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I was thinking that also, so I increased the risk factor to maximum, which should have increased the trades by decreasing the window of the news filter. But, the trading did not seem to increase. According to Birt, the risk set files would not only increase lot size but also close (or narrow) the window by which the news filter operates. Or maybe it is just the Holiday trading traffic which is slowing down everything... :-?

 

I wonder if the news filter is the bottleneck. It certainly was in the previous version, which is why I wrote a more efficient version of the filter that uses a 2 dimensional array to store the history.
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I was thinking that also, so I increased the risk factor to maximum, which should have increased the trades by decreasing the window of the news filter. But, the trading did not seem to increase. According to Birt, the risk set files would not only increase lot size but also close (or narrow) the window by which the news filter operates. Or maybe it is just the Holiday trading traffic which is slowing down everything... :-?

 

The manual states that Kangaroo will not take trades from Dec 20 until Jan 6.

Thanks for the kudos...much appreciated!
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Yes, I read that also. I went to the more aggressive settings on the 12th of December. It still continued to trade, but not more often than on the conservative settings. So, that is why I'm thinking that modifying the news filter may not make it trade more often. Or, maybe it "will" trade more often with aggressive settings (or using a 2 dimensional array), but just 1 or 2 times a month more often. And since the 6th of January is at the end of the trading week, I guess real trading with Kangaroo will not resume until January 10th.

 

The manual states that Kangaroo will not take trades from Dec 20 until Jan 6.
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  • 2 weeks later...

I bought that EA.

Reasons are, that these guys seems to be serious and they are trying to convince by facts (forward test, good discription of the product, etc).

And not like so many others with bullshit.

Today first trade taken (risk 8%) and it made 240$ profit. not bad for a start. if it contiuses like that, i will pay the 30E with a smile on my face every month.

will keep you informed about the furhter progress of this ea....

cheers

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Yes. Real nice. It's times like this I wish I wasn't trading just micro-lots. But, as the account builds, the lots will increase anyway.

 

Have you heard any rumors yet how they may handle requests for additional licenses in case we want to trade on more than just 1 broker? Like maybe a licence that allows platforms on only 1 computer or VPS, but, no longer restricting it to just 1 trading account? Or, maybe a license that allows up to 3 brokerages, similar to LeoTrader, etc.? :-/

 

Nice start here for Kangaroo....had two trades, and two full TPs hit.
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hitescape: yes, true. Trades differ between brokers. But it seems MB is no good match with any EA that uses pending orders.

 

Sneed: I don't know. Would be nice. I am only using it on one of my live accounts. If performance keeps up like this, running it on another live acct might be a good idea yes.

Thanks for the kudos...much appreciated!
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I am using 4xp ECN. Now already two trades. My settings are on 8% risk. which is high... and not recomended by kangaroo.

 

2011/01/11 02:00:02 Sell 1.22 AUDUSD# 0.99481 1.00081 0.99294 2011/01/11 02:36:10 0.99294 - 14.64 0.00 228.14 18.7

Kangaroo v4.1[tp]

7673313 2011/01/10 13:30:01 Sell 1.30 AUDUSD# 0.99044 0.99643 0.98857 2011/01/10 14:13:27 0.98857 - 15.60 0.00 243.10 18.7

Kangaroo v4.1[tp]

 

Cheers

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