Strategy that could become millionaires

[Roels Major]

http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/tt90/RoelsMajor/NewPicture67.jpg

[Freddie]

Looks like you got one Roels, could you tell me how? Time frame, pair, time of BO band. I just cannot get it to look like mine and don't know a way to enlarge the picture.

 

Thanks

 

Freddie

[kraven]

Roels that's just 2 lines. you need top trend to at least touch the second blue bar in grey area...to be honest it wouldn't change the breakout but it would be at least accurate.

[Roels Major]

http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/tt90/RoelsMajor/NewPicture.jpg

[synergy]

Time zone

 

From all the discussion about this system, we are trying to trade the breakout of the 8:00 London open. However, we find difficulties due to the broker server time causing confusion when we trying to draw a trend line for the 6 hours before 8:00 LONDON TIME on the MT4 chart.

 

I think this is quite easy to solve, find out the exact time when it is 8:00 LONDON time, and look at your chart time. That will be the end time for the block.

 

Some discussion on the time settings may be helpful here.

phreak, I understand it. I know that many people in the Forex world (including system developers) consider GMT and London Time the same, but it is not, because of the Daylight Summer Time. I agree that sometimes it is confusing.

 

I also checked Alpari UK FAQ and I can admit you are absolutely right about how Alpari UK comment on that: 'the time zone of our servers is always Central European Time (CET) or London time +1. In other words, the platform GMT offset is GMT+1, or GMT+2 when Daylight Saving Time is in effect.'

 

Their explanation is correct, but at the same time very confusing for traders. What it means is that Alpari UK change their server time to summer time (many other brokers don't), and the time difference between London time and Alpari UK server time is +1 hour all year round. GMT does not switch to summer time, but London does, so technically in summer the time in London is GMT+1. Here the confusion starts: for purposes of trading we don't care about GMT time - what is important to us is London time (for example London open will always be 8 am London time, no matter if it's summer or winter). In other words GMT offset for trading purposes is the time difference between current London time (which may be summer or winter time) and the time of your broker, which is always London time +1 in case of Alpari UK. I hope I haven't made it too complicated, but considering all this your tests should be done with GMT+1 offset, no matter if it's summer or winter if you use Alpari UK.

 

Another example: my broker is GoMarkets: their GMT offset is GMT+2 all year round - they don't switch to summer time. But London does! So if, say, I use an expert advisor, which should start trading at London open (8 am), I will have to change GMT offset in EA settings from GMT+2 to GMT+1 when summer time starts. Do you see my point? Summer time issues are extremely confusing, so please let me know if I was clear enough. Thanks.

[pauli79]

The 0600 UK made 50 pips before reversing!

 

Looks like we might be coming out the lower line.

 

http://i914.photobucket.com/albums/ac341/freddieforII/Chan03086.jpg

 

Freddie Ive just got back in and seen all the postings on the thread.I think you should have drawn your trend lines the other way.

i e.From the tip of the 2nd blue candle to the wick of the blue candle 3rd from end so this is diagonal left to right uphill.

Then from the bottom of the wick on the blue candle 15th in to the base of the wick on the 21st blue candle.Forget the last candle as it was about 40 pips or so long...bit of a false one!

Then you would have trend lines showing an up trend albeit temporary.Not parrallel but near enough as damn it.

The BO would then have been at around 13715 on the 815 am candle.We had slight retracement but def. would have made 50 pips if you stayed in.

[Freddie]

I will do that and post it

[Freddie]

CORRECTION: Pauli79 has pointed out the error that I did not update the lines when I updated the range time earlier.

 

A corrected picture is shown below.

 

http://i914.photobucket.com/albums/ac341/freddieforII/Chan03087.jpg

 

Must pay more attention in future!!

[kraven]

Freddie that's how i got mine this morning, however the top line should make contact with the point of the 2nd last bue bar in grey area, this gives perfect parrallel lines.

 

has anyone tried EU, UJ or EJ with this as spreads much kinder.

[joeytrader]

Just returned home and check the charts and this thread. Seems to have a lot of discussion about what is the correct start time.

 

My concern is this: even if we can confirm the Optimus system officially uses London time 8:00 (or 7:00), we still have not confirmed with superfx, if he have used the Optimus system's time, or has he tested a starting time different from the Optimus's time.

 

Like linkrink, if I can only go by superfx's charts from post #40, and I think at least for 28/07/2010, superfx seems to be using 6:00 London time for starting time. For days like Monday, there would be no difference in results. But going forward, some days can make a big difference.

 

It will be wonderful if superfx can help us out and clarify on your start time.

[chrisbenjy]

has anyone tried EU, UJ or EJ with this as spreads much kinder.

 

Visual back test looks good for EURUSD, but only when the Asia session is quiet. See my examples below.

 

Example 1: Quiet Asia Session

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/9526/example1m.jpg

Quiet asia session and take profit is hit from long trade.

 

Example 2: Choppy Asia Session

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/1571/example2y.jpg

Short trade did not reach TP and would have been closed somewhere inside or on the other side of the channel for quite a big loss.

 

If you check through the charts yourselves, you will see many examples which prove my theory.

[kraven]

yes chris but who says we have to use the same times. i would personal choose to use the US open time (as opposed to our UK open) on the EU. for the EU it would be 14:30 start instead of 8am. how far we's go back????? possible 10:30 til 14:30?

 

however it's important we don't start ripping superfx's idea apart. i just be happier with on with a smaller spread. maybe the EuroJ as it's similar to GJ , similar influencial times, but half the spread

Edited August 3, 2010 by kraven

[chrisbenjy]

Hey Kraven,

 

We should not rule out the way I tested. I didn't back test far enough to make any valid claims, but I would be surprised if the way I tested had less than 90% accuracy rate. Making sure you only trade if the Asia session was quiet.

 

I can't at the moment, but when I get back I will visually back test several pairs and times, looking for the most profitable and looking for discretionary factors such as only trading if the channel is not choppy that increase the accuracy rate.

 

Chris

[pauli79]

When London wakes up, the other markets become affected. The most interested currencies are GBP

and JPY. The permanent trade surplus country Japan has very low interest rates, whereas the persistant

trade deficit country UK has substantially higher interest rates than Japan. Thus the basic idea of

covered interest arbitrage is to borrow in the country with lower interest rate and invest in the country

with higher interest rate. The market is moving as investors and banks in Japan and UK are exchanging

currencies. That's why we focus on USD/JPY and GBP/JPY – the mover, aswell as GU.

The USD/JPY pair is affected a bit later than GBP/USD. A statistical research of GBP/JPY cross pair

leads to increasing volatility somewhere between London and Tokyo session and the best time to trade

is 19:00 GMT.

Time in GMT Affected currency pair Explanation

23:00 USD/JPY Volatility decreases.

11:00 USD/JPY Volatility increases.

7:00 GBP/JPY Volatility decreases.

19:00 GBP/JPY Volatility increases.

 

The above is taken from 1*m daily and this is how they recommend the times to be traded.EU is not recommended for historic reasons.

1)Having said the above I'm quite happy to leave my GU at 10 am as agreed in the posts throughout the thread.

2)I have had 1*m d. running with UJ at 1100 BST with good results.TP's and SL's can be modified...... more later.I haven't kept detailed results however.

3) GJ I am quite happy to leave between 6am am to 8 am as we are doing now and not 7pm in the evening.Having said that I've never tried it in the evening!!

 

With EU take a look at Dub@i Tr@der he trades EU on breakout and has an updated version out.Its been posted by Joeytrader on the forum.Do a search and you should find it.C@shmaster are also trialing it on their blog with interesting results.

 

From a target point of view with BO's 50 pips can be achieved with GU and GJ and with UJ 40 pips.By trial and error I've found this and also using the ATRs (av, daily trading range) of the pairs there is more movement in some than others.

At present ATRs are

GU 123 pips

UJ 78

GJ 175

and for note

EU 101

EJ 121.

[kraven]

let me know your findings Chris

[Freddie]

Evening All, just got back and read all the latest posts.

Now I have my clock I will have no more time problems other than ...

 

WHERE DO WE BREAK OUT FROM!!!

 

I might just mark up both!!

 

Good night,

 

Freddie

[German]

Visual back test looks good for EURUSD, but only when the Asia session is quiet. See my examples below.

 

Example 1: Quiet Asia Session

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/9526/example1m.jpg

Quiet asia session and take profit is hit from long trade.

 

Example 2: Choppy Asia Session

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/1571/example2y.jpg

Short trade did not reach TP and would have been closed somewhere inside or on the other side of the channel for quite a big loss.

 

If you check through the charts yourselves, you will see many examples which prove my theory.

 

Chris

 

How can you even back test this system? each time you refresh or load the Golden Varitey onto any chart for any pair it is always good "after the fact" , Since the Indy is a MAJOR REPAINTER. So its always gooing to look great. The repainting issue has been brought up at the start of the thread

Edited August 3, 2010 by German

[chrisbenjy]

Chris

 

How can you even back test this system? each time you refresh or load the Golden Varitey onto any chart for any pair it is always good "after the fact" , Since the Indy is a MAJOR REPAINTER. So its always gooing to look great. The repainting issue has been brought up at the start of the thread

 

Hey German,

 

Tbh, I forgot all about the Golden Variety lol. I wasn't using it when looking at signals, which shows that the trend line breakout alone can be quite profitable. No offence to the coder, but I think the indicator sucks.

 

I don't even know what all the colors on the indicator mean. I know that the yellow/blue arrows mean go short/long. Could someone please tell me what the rest of it means? Or maybe someone has the manual.

 

Chris. :)

[superfx]

Hello everyone

Sorry not to post much because I've been very busy these past few days.

Yesterday I interact with you, but it seems that the forum had been hacked.

Well, it seems that many of you are in doubt as to the timezone used.

To start, my broker is FXPRO.com timezone GMT +2

The timezone to trade you will have to adjust as your broker.

In the version I have shared, I changed the timezone to GMT +2, which is the FXPRO.com

So for those who use broker with GMT +2 do not worry. The others will have to adjust it.

Remembering: a shared version is changed to GMT +2

I hope this solves all your doubts.

 

This and next week will be very busy, but once you have a time available, I'll read every post.

 

A big hug

[superfx]

Remembering all who live in Japan and timezone GMT +9

So when most of you are awake, I'll be asleep. LOL

Take care

[Freddie]

Nice to see you back, Superfx.

Just tell us the UK times for the Paraman work time indi and Breakout.

[Freddie]

Looks like we might be getting an obvious one today.

Could all change in the next two hours...

 

http://i914.photobucket.com/albums/ac341/freddieforII/Chan0408.jpg

 

Yesterday's corrected version, even put the top line on the right place!!

 

Freddie

[superfx]

Nice to see you back, Superfx.

Just tell us the UK times for the Paraman work time indi and Breakout.

 

UK time GMT+1

(Summer Time)

 

AM 6:00~ AM 8:00

[pauli79]

Hello everyone

Sorry not to post much because I've been very busy these past few days.

Yesterday I interact with you, but it seems that the forum had been hacked.

Well, it seems that many of you are in doubt as to the timezone used.

To start, my broker is FXPRO.com timezone GMT +2

The timezone to trade you will have to adjust as your broker.

In the version I have shared, I changed the timezone to GMT +2, which is the FXPRO.com

So for those who use broker with GMT +2 do not worry. The others will have to adjust it.

Remembering: a shared version is changed to GMT +2

I hope this solves all your doubts.

 

This and next week will be very busy, but once you have a time available, I'll read every post.

 

A big hug

 

Hi superfx.Thanks for the post but even if your broker is GMT +2 it doesnt matter all we need to know is what time to we trade the BO from on UK time now which is BST and we can all adjust accordingly...lol....so many probs. with time!!!

[Freddie]

OK, London time it is. I have not moved the indi but added a 0600 line.

 

Pic to follow but it is only 0615 right now.

 

Freddie

 

Morning Paulie see my pic in a couple of mins!!

 

http://i914.photobucket.com/albums/ac341/freddieforII/Chan04082.jpg

Edited August 4, 2010 by Freddie
added pic