K12 Posted January 19, 2009 Report Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA hmmm..good question...for that we need to have a good indicator to at least predict the movement of the market...one example is by using CI. Any other suggestion??? CI? Do you mean CCI? if it is, that's funny because i also has found that CCI is good enough, but again i don't think it's the way to do it.Could we say that's unpredictable? Just like price movement! I think here is a bit misunderstanding which needs to be addressed. We do not predict, this business is really not about predicting but instead only making HIGH PROBABILITY guesses or bets. Predicting trends generally means predicting the tops and bottoms which in general is not a high probability bet and for most of us the result is a loss. :wew: You don't need to predict a trend to be successful. You WAIt and when a trend has already formed then you simply RIDE it. You get in a bit late and you get out a bit soon thus you put the odds in your favour. :lol: If you do not wait and effectively force a trade or over trade then obviously you have no one to blame than yourself. To trade successfully you must develop such skills as patience and discipline. a) if you trade long term you may have more chance to jump on the trend and then jump out successfully in other words you will have more CHANCE to be correct than incorrect. Recommended for beginners or those who really want to be on the safe side. :arrow: b) If you trade short term then you really need to know what you are doing and you must have a good money management strategy in place otherwise go back to a. ;) c)If you trade very short time frames you are effectively not a trend follower! You might be a scalper or etc. You again must know what you are in for. 8-) Hope you find it helpful. :mrgreen: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsosay Posted January 20, 2009 Report Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA I think here is a bit misunderstanding which needs to be addressed. We do not predict, this business is really not about predicting but instead only making HIGH PROBABILITY guesses or bets. Predicting trends generally means predicting the tops and bottoms which in general is not a high probability bet and for most of us the result is a loss. :wew: You don't need to predict a trend to be successful. You WAIt and when a trend has already formed then you simply RIDE it. You get in a bit late and you get out a bit soon thus you put the odds in your favour. :lol: If you do not wait and effectively force a trade or over trade then obviously you have no one to blame than yourself. To trade successfully you must develop such skills as patience and discipline. a) if you trade long term you may have more chance to jump on the trend and then jump out successfully in other words you will have more CHANCE to be correct than incorrect. Recommended for beginners or those who really want to be on the safe side. :arrow: b) If you trade short term then you really need to know what you are doing and you must have a good money management strategy in place otherwise go back to a. ;) c)If you trade very short time frames you are effectively not a trend follower! You might be a scalper or etc. You again must know what you are in for. 8-) Hope you find it helpful. :mrgreen: Couldn't agree more with you, May I know how do you decide the new trend has just started? I know some methods, like lower high & higher low, MA cross. I am bad on that things, Could you explain more? Many Thanks Quote no Guts, no Glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsosay Posted January 20, 2009 Report Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA e.g. - eur is moving 150 pips up in 2 hours. Is that trend? - eur is moving 150 pips up in 15 minutes. Is that trend? - eur is moving 150 pips up in 1 minute. Is that trend? - eur is moving 150 pips up in 2 weeks. Is that trend? - eur is moving 300 pips up in 2 days, but moving up and down 200 pips in between. Is that trend? Is it up or down? - eur is moving 50 pips up in 2 days, no down movement just up 50 pips for 2 days. Is that trend? Is it up or down? I think all of it trend, if you switch to lower period and separate it to partial, am I right? Quote no Guts, no Glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William1713006271 Posted January 20, 2009 Report Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA I think all of it trend, if you switch to lower period and separate it to partial, am I right? That is up to you. So for an example question: - eur is moving 50 pips up in 2 days, no down movement just up 50 pips for 2 days. Is that trend? Is it up or down? - your answer is: Yes it's trend. It's up trend. Is that true? Everybody agrees? So now, push aside the examples, the examples are not important at all. You haven't answered my questions: What movement is considered as trend? What is trend? this business is really not about predicting but instead only making HIGH PROBABILITY guesses or bets Nice said. Couldn't agree more. That's why I'll ask basic questions such as "what is trend" because people just don't know that trading is just about the game of numbers and probability. Hopefully by answering my basic and boring questions, we (including myself) could be reminded about this probability. Regards, Quote Ore no Shinka Hikari yo Hayai. Zen Uchi o Nani no Mono Ore no Shinka Chuito Kore Nai. Ten no Michi yo Iki. Subete o Sukosadoru Otoko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K12 Posted January 20, 2009 Report Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA TRENDS Forex market, as we know well is driven by fundamental changes, news and peoples’ reaction to them. Forex is not driven by Technical analysis although we might look at charts for our analysis! We need to get the BALANCE right. :wew: Major players are banks, big corporations and governments. They are not in short of resources and money. They can ride the long term trend with minimum risk and maximum return. A short term trader with small capital is basically not in an easy situation and the odds are against him/her from the very beginning! Basically he/she is left with no choose other than be flexible (creative) and bet small always. :arrow: Having understood the above lets get down to our subject which is trend: There is no easy or fixed answer fitting all because there are many ways to identify a trend and there are different trends which some may not suit your individual situation- financially or mentally or etc. In particular this may depend on other things such as your approach - technical or fundamental, your objective, your starting capital, your attitude to risk, your chosen market, your chosen time frame, the state of the economy and a lot more. There is a lot written already on the subject for example one for your reference is a book called TREND FOLLOWING by Michael W Covel. Also, please see below some short articles on the subject which you may find useful. :sum: 1. When does a trend start and end? hxxp://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/bar_charts.php 2. How to Identify Emerging Trends: hxxp://blog.cestudios.ca/2007/06/23/how-to-identify-emerging-trends-part-one/ 3. How to correctly identify the trend hxxp://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/Forex/commentary/Forex/-50936.cfm 4. Using indicators to identify trends hxxp://www.forex.com/forex_trend_indicators.html 5. How to identify new trends when trading forex hxxp://theforexarticles.com/2008/03/25/how-to-identify-new-trends-when-trading-forex/ Interstingly, have you realised that we are also part of a trend. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsosay Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA So now, push aside the examples, the examples are not important at all. You haven't answered my questions: What movement is considered as trend? What is trend? I think trend is price movement that has same direction for some bar, with or without whipsaw. That is what i called past trend :mrgreen: Quote no Guts, no Glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsosay Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA Interstingly, have you realised that we are also part of a trend. :D Trend MODE kah? or more general trend life styles :D Quote no Guts, no Glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William1713006271 Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA I think trend is price movement that has same direction for some bar, with or without whipsaw. That is what i called past trend :mrgreen: Regardless the timeframe, how many bars are considered as a trend by you? 2 bars with a same colors? 20 bars? Regards, Quote Ore no Shinka Hikari yo Hayai. Zen Uchi o Nani no Mono Ore no Shinka Chuito Kore Nai. Ten no Michi yo Iki. Subete o Sukosadoru Otoko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsosay Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA Regardless the timeframe, how many bars are considered as a trend by you? 2 bars with a same colors? 20 bars? Regards, I never think about it before, but i have my answer. small trend more than 5 bar, big tren 20 bars or more. Quote no Guts, no Glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsosay Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA The Q is full of mystery :mrgreen: :peace: Quote no Guts, no Glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William1713006271 Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA I never think about it before, but i have my answer. small trend more than 5 bar, big tren 20 bars or more. Nice. Ok, you have even answered the next question, which is "which one is small trend? which one is big trend?" Ok. so according to gsosay: small trend = minimum 5 bars with same colors big trend = minimum 20 bars with same colors all regardless the timeframe. The Q is full of mystery :mrgreen: :peace: No, it's not mystery. Building an EA is like teaching a robotic baby. You have to say: "Hey EA, I want you to check the last 20 bars. If those last 20 bars are all same color, you have a big trend. If only the last 5 bars are all same color, you have a small trend. For all the trend if the open is smaller than the closing of the candle, then it is up trend. For all trends, if the open is bigger than the closing of the candle, then it is down trend. For all trends, if the open is same as the closing, there is no trend." Step #1, of defining what a trend is, is done. Now we move to step #2.... Step #2: Confirming that the definition (of what a trend is) is valid. This is where the game of probability, like K12 said, comes in. Now, I want you to check which timeframe has the most 20 bars of the same colors. Also which timeframe has the most 5 bars of the same colors. E.g. I don't think (although never tested before) you would find 20 bars of the same color on monthly timeframe. So, your definition of big trend is not valid for monthly timeframe. Please find: - the timeframes for your small trend. - the timeframes for your big trends. - get the number of average small trends per month from 2008 data. - get the number of average big trends per month from 2008 data. (e.g. in 2008, big trends only comes 1 time per month on h4. But comes 2 times per month on H1.) If you can't find a solid number, then you don't have a good probability. If that happens, then you need to go back to step #1 and define: "what is trend?" once again. Happy statisting (hey, is that even a word :mrgreen: ) Regards, Quote Ore no Shinka Hikari yo Hayai. Zen Uchi o Nani no Mono Ore no Shinka Chuito Kore Nai. Ten no Michi yo Iki. Subete o Sukosadoru Otoko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btrack707 Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA hmmm..good question...for that we need to have a good indicator to at least predict the movement of the market...one example is by using CI. Any other suggestion??? CI? Do you mean CCI? if it is, that's funny because i also has found that CCI is good enough, but again i don't think it's the way to do it.Could we say that's unpredictable? Just like price movement! CI= Choppiness Index..Not bad at detecting sideways.. Here is an ea that kinda fit the bill for trending catcher, Steinitz HAS 3.21. I have been testing this ea for awhile and here is the attachment for the trades that it made so far... mtf.GIF[/attachment:2rm34ojg] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsosay Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA If you can't find a solid number, then you don't have a good probability. If that happens, then you need to go back to step #1 and define: "what is trend?" once again. Happy statisting (hey, is that even a word :mrgreen: ) Regards, The secret has been revealed :peace: Quote no Guts, no Glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myffxdonos Posted June 23, 2009 Report Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA hmmm..good question...for that we need to have a good indicator to at least predict the movement of the market...one example is by using CI. Any other suggestion??? CI? Do you mean CCI? if it is, that's funny because i also has found that CCI is good enough, but again i don't think it's the way to do it.Could we say that's unpredictable? Just like price movement! CI= Choppiness Index..Not bad at detecting sideways.. Here is an ea that kinda fit the bill for trending catcher, Steinitz HAS 3.21. I have been testing this ea for awhile and here is the attachment for the trades that it made so far... mtf.GIF[/attachment:1a1t1i9d] By me is the EA not woking. Can you help me in PM or here. Can you share Steinz 3.21 and the preset file? Quote http://www.sitetalk.com/myworld Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e24 Posted June 23, 2009 Report Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: Joining 2 or 3 EA become 1 EA Hey Guys In My opinion it Is a TF issue rather than trying to combine 2 EA to decide sidewaysrange or trending A sideways move in one TF will equal a trending move in another TF 5min and 1hr,15,and 4hr,1hr and Daily and 4hr and weekly If 1hr TF is in sideway movemet look at 5 min and see nice trend up and down making 1hr high and 1 hr lows Same if daily range is sideways look at 1 hr TF and see the daily high and lows been made and so on So i believe if we can make an EA to spot these moves and then change from TF To TF we would be close to creating the perfect EA This is just my opinion And open to suggestions DOM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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