"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis

ValdisTF · November 19, 2015

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve meeting minutes could not disappoint investors. Most the Fed managers expect the necessary conditions to the interest rates increase to be achieved by the December meeting. There was the risks reduction that was caused by the trading partnersâ€™ economic slowdown. The fundamental background is still negative for the single European currency. However, the pair corrected upwards yesterday.

The UK and the US government bond yields expanded in favor of the latter which reduces the investmentsâ€™ attractiveness into the British assets. The commodity market showed the "bearish" sentiment that supports the US currency. Nevertheless, the pound strengthened against the dollar.

The US inflation short-term forecast was revised towards the positive direction; the medium-term view remains the same. Against this background, the dollar index basket (USDX) strengthened. Japan is in the technical recession, due to many factors, one of which is the China business activity slowdown which is one of the Japan leading trade partners. The Bank of Japan meeting was held where the country monetary policy was discussed. The bank decided not to change it.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Treasury two-year bond yields is once again demonstrating growth that supports the demand for the US dollar. Investors are still pessimistic about the European assets in the bond market: the German 10-year government bonds are reducing relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The number of the US initial jobless claims report was published. The report showed the number that coincides with the forecast - 271K.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0730 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0630, 1.0550.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office published the October retail sales report. The consensus forecast pointed out to the retail sector sales growth slowdown by 0.4% compared with the previous month as the September sales increased by 1.9%. In fact the index fell by 0,6%. The UK unemployment fell to their lowest levels since mid-2008, the third quarter average earnings increased by 3% in annual terms.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event of the day. It was the monetary regulator first meeting after Japan fell into the technical recession. The low wage growth constrains household spending. The Japanese currency growth against the US dollar to 2.16% in the third quarter contributed to the exports decline which increased the trade deficit.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a â€œGolden Crossâ€.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 123.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose slightly after the FOMC minutes publication. The Switzerland government reported that Jordan can hold intervention in the currency market. According to his words, negative rates lead to the overvalued franc.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target â€“ 1.0190. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0280.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

ValdisTF · November 22, 2015

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The initial jobless claims number fell by 5 thousand till 271 thousand. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business activity report has shown a much more positive trend than it was forecasted - the index rose up by 1.9 in November against the October 4.5 with the improvement expectations only to -1.0. The prospects can be judged to some extent by indicators which increased by new orders index to -3.7 against -10.6, still the employment rose up to 2.6 after the previous -1.7.

The euro zone and the US important macroeconomic data have not been published. The ECB President Mario Draghi gave his speech. The monetary regulator has once again confirmed its intention to change the ECB monetary policy if needed, still traders have not received a clear signal from him. ÐŸÐ°Ñ€Ð° EUR/USD slightly fell by the end of the day.

In the absence of interesting macroeconomic releases the last trading day of the week, traders have closely followed the debt and commodity markets dynamics. The UK credit markets government bond yields are reducing relative to their US counterparts. The commodity market has stabilized after the strong sales in the strong negative fundamental trend. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD sharply fell.

The United States and Japan have absolutely opposite macroeconomic statistics which the market gets during autumn. The United States is encouraging investors with the labor market and consumer spending positive data that has forced to think seriously about the Fed interest rates raising on December 16th. Even the dollar revaluation factor has had no significant negative influence. The pair USD/JPY closed the week trades with a decrease.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

It is hard to ignore the euro zone payments balance dynamics that is an important macroeconomic indicator. The trades surplus was 73.4 billion euros in the third quarter of 2015 which is less by 7.08% than it was in the second quarter, but by 10.7% more than in the same period of the last year. The positive dynamics in comparison with the year 2014 is related to the single European currency devaluation.

â€œBullsâ€ have attempted to start a growth. The price was at the level of 1.0730 and rebound downwards, trades were held with a decrease to the mark of 1.0630.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to their German counterparts. The British Industry Confederation (CBI) data were not so encouraging that showed the industrial production index decreased in November to -6 against the earlier 4 and the orders indicator reduction to -11 from -8 in October.

The "bulls" attempt to continue growth has failed. The resistance at the level of 1.5300 has been only tested. The price could not break through that mark and returned downwards. The support level of 1.5200 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5200 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen has declined. In addition to general market sentiment, formed under the influence of the Fed protocols content, sales within this pair were caused by disappointment that the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged when a certain part of the market still hoped to hear about the leniency programs capacity.

The pair continued its decline to the mark of 122.40 but it was stopped. The pair formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The decrease in this pair stopped. Earlier the pair USD / CHF continued to fall while the dollar was declining on all fronts after the Fed officialsâ€™ comments. The Federal Reserve Bank manager Cleveland Loretta Mester said that the Fed has almost reached the employment targets. She is confident that the inflation target of 2% can be achieved despite the oil prices decline and the dollar growth. She believes that the longer delay is (with higher rates), the higher financial imbalances chances are. By the end of the trades the pair showed a growth.

The pair dollar / franc stopped its correctional movement. The pair increased and tested the level of 1.0190.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.0190 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 1.0280 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

ValdisTF · November 23, 2015

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The November Germany manufacturing sector business climate report has been published by Markit Economics. The data output was at the level of 52.00 which indicates the moderately positive dynamics and shall give a short-term support for the single European currency. The employment and average earnings growth with the interest rates reduction on 30-year mortgages allowed banks to increase the mortgage lending in October. In this connection, the data is expected to be a little better than the forecasted medians, the data came out at the level 52,6. It is impossible to ignore the ECB President Mario Draghiâ€™s speech last week. The ECB governor told: "We'll do everything we need to do for the early inflation rising". The pair euro/dollar was trading in a side corridor.

Now the debt market dynamics is on the bearsâ€™ side in the pair GBP/USD: the UK government bond yields have been declining for last three trading days relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investmentsâ€™ attractiveness into the British assets. Last week CBI again reported about the industrial orders volume reduction and the negative trend has been lasting for seven months in a row. The pair pound/dollar continued its decrease.

The Japanese and the US government bond yields have been declining for last two trading days which increases the investmentsâ€™ attractiveness into the Japanese assets. The dollar was supported by the "black gold" market pessimistic sentiments: the Baker Hughes release was not able to provide strong support to the oil quotations, despite the fact that the number of drilling rigs decreased by 10 units. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone monetary authorities once again underlined that they were ready to go for the monetary policy further easing if necessary. However, the debt market dynamics is on the euro bulls side now: The German 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and the UK counterparts.

The last week minimum of 1.0630 was updated. Sellers managed to update and consolidate below this mark. Until recently this support started to play the resistance role.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0420.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has increased by 3.4% over the last eighteen months against its main trading partner which increases the risk for the UK exporters. The CBI respondents identified two key negative factors: the strong pound and the global economic growth weakness.

The British pound showed a decrease from the resistance level of 1.5300. The pair broke through the support levels of 1.5200 and 1.5150. The price reached the levels amid the low volumes, but with an increased volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a srong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the US secondary market home sales positive publication. However the data came out at the level 5,36M, the forecast was 5,40M. The dollar rally comes to the end; traders have already priced in a bet the December Fed raising interest rates forecast. The final decision will depend on the Fed economic data, so the personal consumption expenditures deflator which will be released on Wednesday will determine whether the US monetary tightening cycle starts in 2015 or not.

The buyersâ€™ previous attempts to break through above the resistance level of 122.40 were unsuccessful. The pair rebounded downward from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40 and 121.30.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

ValdisTF · November 24, 2015

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The IFO Institute published the November Germany business climate data. The data came out better then forecasted 108,2 at the level of 109,0. The Markit PMI composite index shows the number of optimistsâ€™ growth among the purchasing managers. The US GDP was revised upwards amid the positive macroeconomic indicators. This factor has spurred the US two â€“year Treasury bonds growth which supported the dollar. However the pair closed the trades with a slight increase.

The Britain inflation parliamentary hearings results were interpreted quite negatively by traders. The medium-term forecast was revised to the negative side amid the oil prices decline, the British currency growth against the main trading partner (euro). In the light of this, the monetary authorities have stated once again that interest rates will not be raised in 2016. the pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

The US third quarter GDP revised data made investors open long positions as the Japanese and the US indicatorsâ€™ differential has been expanded even further in favor of the latter as Japan has slipped into the technical recession. The current trend is reflected in the debt market which has led to the US Treasury bonds growth for a short-time which is traditionally a strong positive factor for the dollar. We cannot ignore the demand dynamics for the "risky assets". However the dollarâ€™s strengthening was short-term and the pair USD/JPY decreased.

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR index lost 4.08% at the beginning of the fourth quarter which is a positive factor on the euro zone net exports and will contribute to the production volume growth and the unemployment reduction in the medium term. The Germany and the US government bond yields reduction have supported the euro bulls.

Sellers tried to break through and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.0630. However the pair closed the trades above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1630 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.0730, 1.0800.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The "bearish" trend is gaining momentum and the British pound rushed to the current month minimum values. The UK government bond yields continued to decline on the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduced the investmentsâ€™ attractiveness into the British assets.

Breaking through the support level of 1.5150, the downward trend has managed to test the nearest target that is the mark of 1.5100. After the level of 1.5150 testing there was a consolidation with the downward trend continuation. The bears fixated the price below the level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5150.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The "bullish" sentiments have prevailed. The stock marketsâ€™ upward trend with the high-yield cross-rates increase indicated the "risk appetite presence among investors" which had a negative impact on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However the yen became a leader again and the pair USD/JPY fell.

The medium-term bullish trend was stopped at the resistance level of 123.80 and turned downwards for a correction. Due to the formed correction sellers break through the mark of 123.20 and tested the support level of 122.40.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.

ValdisTF · November 25, 2015

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

There is a long weekend in the USD amid the Thanksgiving Day celebration. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than forecasted 273 thousand having fallen to 260 thousand.

The euro continued its sluggish recovery against the US dollar. The Germany GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter. The Germany economic expectations, business optimism and the current situation assessment indices were higher than the predicted values. The US GDP report was revised upwards to the mark of 2.1%. However, the pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the day.

The UK calendar was empty and investors had to focus their attention on the US data. The course of trades was determined by the debt and the equity markets dynamics. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carneyâ€™s speech excited the market a little bit as he noted the inflation decrease and the possible soft monetary policy period extension. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased.

The third quarter US GDP got the US and Japan government bond yields to increase. The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar, despite the good overseas statistics. The yen regained its reserve currency status amid the risky assets escape. However, the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a growth.

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We think that the euro grew only due to the need from time to time to be corrected. The US currency continued to be in demand as the two-year Treasury bond yields are now in the field of multi-year highs. Amid this fact the pair EUR/USD decreased.

The pair EUR/USD consolidated above the support level of 1.0630. The price reached this level amid the low volumes then it formed a consolidation. Then there was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.0550 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0420 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK/US and Germany credit markets spreads have stabilized after the week of contraction. The US traders left the market for a long weekend amid the Thanksgiving national holiday.

There was a strong support level of 1.5100 breakthrough. Sellers broke through but could not fixate below. This level was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5040 soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar. There was that upward trend in the stock market. â€“ The "protective" communal sector was the decline leader that indicates the risk appetite increase among investors and put pressure on the yen as a funding currency. As a result the dollar became a leader.

The USD/JPY downward correction stopped at the support level of 122.40. Sellers lowered the price to this level. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction easing. There was price upwards rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 122.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 121.30 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

ValdisTF · November 26, 2015

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

In economic news, the US durable goods orders positive releases and the jobless claims got the pair EUR/USD to the fresh low for the last seven months. The US important macroeconomic statistics have not been published amid the day off due to the Thanksgiving celebration. Europe published important reports, excluding the Spain GDP for the 3 rd quarter (3,4% y/y and 0,8% q/q) and the euro zone M3 money supply (growth by 5,3%).

The pair GBP/USD has managed to recover after a decline. The Cable was supported after the UK Budget Responsibility Office raised the country GDP forecast for the next year to 2.4%. The report also informs about the budget surplus prospects and the labor market improvements.

The yen was supported by the Bank of Japan minutes which pointed to the risk control concern for the economic growth and the inflation. The most favorable statistics gave quotations additional stimulus to growth. There was a weak volatility in the market amid the holiday in the USA.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics; moreover, the United States had a day off. The American traders left the market for a long weekend to celebrate Thanksgiving in a good mood - the dollar is trading near the multi-year highs.

In general the technical studies remain bearish. There was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough. The price fixated below this level and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. The approach to the level of 1.0630 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0550, 1.0420.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK debt market government bond yields have been growing for the last few days in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investmentsâ€™ attractiveness into the British assets. As the United States has a day off on Thursday â€“ amid the low liquidity "bulls" opened long positions, based the corrective movement development.

Sellers have not been able to consolidate below the strong support level of 1.5100. The level reverse testing was followed by its breakthrough upwards. The resistance level of 1.5150 was the potential target for a correction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The investors "risk appetite" growth will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency and may encourage "bulls" to long. The US tradersâ€™ absence caused the low liquidity. The US celebrated Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. There was weak volatility after the growth.

Sellers lowered the price to the support level of 122.40. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction weakening.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks 122.40 down it will open the way to the support level of 121.30.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc came against the dollar. The Switzerland industrial orders report amounted to -5.1% vs. -2.4% previously. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank said about the US economic growth decrease in the fourth quarter from 2.3% to + 1.8% for the year. The decrease is connected with the consumer spending rate reduction from 3.1% to 2.2%.

The pair has stabilized. The price fixated above the support level of 1.0190.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target â€“ 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

ValdisTF · November 29, 2015

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD continued its lateral trend amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics, as well as the low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving Day in the United States. The global equity market shows an upward trend, the Germany high-tech sector was the growth leader. This factor signaled abound the "risky assets" demand which had a negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. According to the dollar index, the quotations were near the psychological level of 100.00.

The third quarter UK GDP came out. The data is at the forecasted level: 0,5% (q/q) and 2,3% (y/y). The third quarter unemployment rate decreased by 0.3% to the level of 5.3%. This is the highest rate of the unemployment decline in 2015. The average wage increased by 3% on an annualized basis in this period which indicates the household spending growth and is a welcome factor for the economic growth. The data output at the level of 0.6% supported the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD decreased.

Japan has published a bloc of important macroeconomic statistics where the inflation: 0,0% (y/y). The CPI has increased by 0.58% for the first nine months of this year while the average earnings grew by only 0.25%. Thus, the population real incomes have reduced and in that respect, the Bank of Japan governor H. Kuroda told about the weak wage dynamics at the monetary regulator last meeting. The Japanese 10-year government bond yields which reflect the inflation investors' expectations fell by 4 bp in October. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro remained under the downward pressure against the US dollar in anticipation of the upcoming ECB meeting. Investors' expectations regarding the ECB more aggressive the rates easing keep growing ahead of the meeting. Economists predict that the ECB may disappoint the market expectations for the upcoming meeting.

The downward trend may show weakness in the short term. Trades are held below the strong resistance level of 1.0630. While the level is holding back the price growth from the level of 1.0550, the downward trend potential is still preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK GDP 3rd quarter estimate is 0.5% q/q + 2.3% y/y that is completely unchanged. The Sterling did not grow because of the UK and Germany government bond yield reduction.

The upward correction that was formed from the support level of 1.5040, gradually began to turn towards the bearish trend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5040 line break that will open the way to the level of 1.4970.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese inflation data at the level of 0.2% came in worse than the consensus forecast year on year which had a downward pressure on the Japanese currency. The "investorsâ€™ risk appetite growth" is a threat to the yen as a funding currency.

The dollar bullish sentiment is dominating. Bulls did not have enough strength at the same time to break through the strong level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar and the franc remained mostly at the same place as on Thursday when the US markets were closed to celebrate Thanksgiving Day. The sales remained sluggish until the end of the day as the US markets were closed early on Friday, extending the holiday lull. However by the end of the day the pair slightly increased.

The pair remains stable near the recent highs. The USD/CHF pair consolidated above the strong resistance level of 1.0280. The Swiss franc upward trend is stable, despite the strong divergence on the volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0280, the next one is 1.0190. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target â€“ 1.0370.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

ValdisTF · December 10, 2015

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ValdisTF · December 29, 2015

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

We highlight the Conference Board consumer confidence report. The December Michigan University indicator showed growth against the strong labor market background, allowing to calculate the Conference Board positive data output. The data came out at the level of 96,5p. that is better then forecasted 93,0p.

The stock exchange showed some pessimism: the banking sector became the decline leaders. This factor supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The trade is still sluggish due to the low-liquid market. However the pair EUR/USD slightly fell.

London bank reopened its doors for customers. Given the low liquidity and lack of important macroeconomic statistics, investors pay attention to the commodity market dynamics, especially in the "black gold". The Brent determines the Cable course of trading. The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The Japanese macroeconomic statistics once again upset the traders. The statistics showed a personal consumption decrease in November which is a negative factor for the economic growth. The industrial production decreased by 0.3%. However, the Old World and North America leading stock markets pessimism prevails that is a positive environment for safe assets which traditionally includes the Japanese yen. The pair USD/JPY is trading in a flat.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB Mersch regulator's statements regarding the further monetary policy easing readiness, alongside with the deposit rates decrease did not cause noticeable reaction on the pair, as a matter of fact, the Speaker did not say anything new. In addition, the single currency was kept afloat by the flight from risky assets.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 1.1050 breakthrough the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1150. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0800.

Pound

General overview

The Cable finishes the year near the 7-month low. The Bank of England uncertain position regarding the interest rates hike is a downward movement driver for the Sterling. The Bank is still the "second in line" after the Fed, the time-limit when the Regulator may change the rates is moved significantly, given the weak inflationary pressures, sluggish wage growth, conflicting data on business activity and politicians' cautious statements.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price continued to advance south. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.4830 further on we expect a consolidation.

Yen

General overview

Many investors are already beginning to celebrate the New Year. Moreover, traditional holidays volatility is falling and we do not expect any important statistics till the end of the week.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and we expect its further decline. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now at the level of 120.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 4, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The last trading day of 2015 was marked by the dollar strengthening against its major rivals. Most of the traders left the market earlier to celebrate the Catholic Christmas and the New Year. The weak US data did not stop the EUR/USD from growth. The weekly unemployment benefits rose by 20K to the mark 287 000. In economic news, the Chicago Fed business activity index came in at 42.9, not much short of the forecast of 49.8.

In the middle of last week, the ECB reported about the November private sector lending growth, the rate was 1.4% in annual terms which is the highest level in the past year. Monday trading was revived due to the planned statistics. The euro area countries published the manufacturing business activity. Germany surfaced the inflation report: 0,3% y/y and -0,1% m/m against forecasted 0,6% y/y Ð¸ 0,2% m/m. The Germany PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 53,2 against forecasted 53,0. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK published money supply report 0,4% m/m against the forecasted 0,5% m/m. The Britain PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 51,9 against forecasted 52,7. The 10-year UK government bonds yield is growing relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany, which supports the demand for the pound. However, the trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease.

The US and Japanese government bond yield differential exceeded the level of 200 pp which increases the US assets investment attractiveness. The pair USD/JPY showed a growth by the end of the day.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro lost 10% over the past year while it declined by 12% in 2014. In December, the pair returned a part of the losses due to the November two key Central Banks careful actions - the ECB refrained from a large-scale stimulus, the Fed raised its rate by 0.25%. The fact that the US regulator began the monetary policy normalization while the rest of the world central banks including the ECB continue their soft policy. This factor is likely to continue to provide support to the greenback in the coming year.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.

Pound

General overview

The Cable is still under strong "bearish" pressure amid the UK economy weak forecasts and the negative prospects for the Bank of England interest rates growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4830.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4760 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4830.

Yen

General overview

Traders bought the yen as a safe haven when the Chinese market fell more than 7%, while Japanese's stock index lost 3%. The Japanese industrial sector business activity index showed growth to 52.6 in December from 52.5 in November. The US published the manufacturing sector PMI from ISM report at the level of 48,2 against the forecasted median at 49,0.

The first support resides at 119.20, the next is at 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.30.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 5, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The China stock market drama had a direct impact on the currencies behavior. The China manufacturing sector business activity surfaced the PMI fall to 48.2 vs. expected of 48.9. Ten consecutive month of falling triggered a new wave of concern about the Chinese economy state and its potential impact on global GDP. This fact, coupled with the Middle East conflict escalation where Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Iran, provoked a strong wave of risk aversion.

The December Germany preliminary inflation data showed weak results: 0,2% against the forecasted median 0,3%. The USA statistics is disappointing as well. The manufacturing sector ISM has been below 50% for two consecutive months, indicating a business activity slowdown. The index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 in December. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease.

The UK November number of mortgage approvals in 2015 amounted to 70.4 thousand which is 0.77% more than in the previous month and 18.81% more than in November 2014. That is the mortgage market which is the main growth driver in the real estate sector and in view of the above-described positive momentum we expected the construction sector PMI within the consensus forecast which may provide some support for the Cable. The data came out at the level of 57,8 against the forecasted 56,0. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

The world stock indices collapse strengthened safe-haven assets. The main beneficiary was the yen. Still the followed USD buying changed the alignment of forces in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, after a slight correction the pair fell again.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In addition to a dollar general direction movement change the Germany inflation report has brought a bit of negative when the consumer prices growth index slowed to + 0.2% y/y from 0.3% while traders expected it to accelerate to 0.4%. The euro area inflation report was the key event of Tuesday that came out worse then forecasted median. In addition, Germany has surfaced labor market indicators: -14K and -6K.

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showÑ‹ a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0630, 1.0550.

Pound

General overview

Neither the British statistics bright data nor the weak US figures did not help the pound which is showing the downward trend still expecting the Bank of England rate hike in the coming year. We expect the Bank of England credit conditions report this week.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4560 will be opened.

Yen

General overview

The yen rally against the dollar and the euro was stopped on Tuesday when the Chinese stock market started a recovery though traders are still not sure that the Chinese market reached its bottom. The yen still may strengthen expecting the BoJ monetary policy easing in the short term. The United States weak data may support the yen due to risk aversion. The United States published the New York ISM at the level of 716,6.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 6, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

Investors keep buying the dollar. Trading volumes are higher than in the same days last year. The euro area employment data pleased traders. The Spain unemployed number decreased by 55.8 thousand. vs. expected of 52.6 thousand. The same index is 55.8 thousand in Germany. The forecast was 52.6 thousand. The pair euro/dollar showed a slight growth.

The UK debt market is now set against the bulls: the 10-year UK government bonds yield is reduced relative to their US and Germany counterparts reducing the Cable investments attractiveness. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased.

Now investors are more alarmed of the Chinese economy state than six months ago, having started buying the dollar. China conducted a currency intervention at 19.9 billion dollars to support the yuan. The operation was a success - the dollar fell from 6.54 yuan to 6.52. As about the pair dollar/yen â€“ it showed a slight decrease.

The commodity currencies again suffered from the Chinese economy weak data releases. Australian and New Zealand dollars fell most of all.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

We noted the bearish sentiment prevalence. The weak November euro area inflation data contributed to the US and Germany government bonds growth reducing the investments attractiveness in European assets putting pressure on the single European currency. The trades were determined by the services ISM (55,3 against the forecasted median 56,0) and the US Energy Department releases (-5,085Ðœ against the forecasted median 0,439Ðœ).

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.

Pound

General overview

The published positive construction sector PMI was unable to provide strong support for the pound. That is a signal of the strong sellers presence. The Markit published the third report - this time we got the service sector data. This indicator has been showing the moderate growth for the last two months, however, if we want to see a strong demand for the pound the indicator final value should be higher than 56.6 n. The release came in at the level of 55,5 that put pressure on the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.

Yen

General overview

The lack of "risk appetite" among investors continues to contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The high-yield cross-rates have been showing weakness from the beginning of the trading week. We believe traders are not interesting in new carry trade orders.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the flat trades between the levels of 118.40 and 119.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 7, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a quite volatile trading day yesterday. The dollar showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals. Traders still do not prefer to risk as they do have concerns to worry about. They are global economy slowdown, low oil price and the Chinese economy.

Soft Fed meeting minutes weakened the US currency. The regulator expressed his concerns about the inflation, the strong dollar which triggered the greenback sales. The US published the initial jobless clams (277 000 against the forecasted 275 000).

The euro got some support after the risky assets sales. However, the US strong labor market data gave new strength to the dollar. According to ADP, the December private sector employment level increased by 257 thousand. These figures are much higher than the forecast and the previous value of 192 thousand. However after the USA new statistics the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

A series of weak economic data postpones the Bank of England rate hike which exacerbates the divergence rate of the BoE and the Fed. That is another long-term negative factor for the Sterling. The trades closed with the pair GBP/USD decrease.

The USD/JPY accelerated its decline after the Fed meeting minutesâ€™ publication. The price moved further down. The risk factor always plays into the Japanese yen hands.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Traders received the Germany retail sales and factory orders data. The euro zone is to publish the labor market (the unemployment rate is 10,5% against the forecasted 10,7%), the consumer confidence (at the forecasted median -0,6), the retail sales (-0,3% against the forecasted median 0,2%), the economic sentiment (-2,0 against the forecasted median -3,0) reports.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.

Pound

General overview

The strong dollar does not leave the choice to the pound which has to develop the downward momentum. The EUR/GBP dynamics played the negative role for the Cable having grown within the day. The UK statistics continues to disappoint traders. The UK surfaced the house prices minor report that came in better then forecasted median 9,5%(y/y) and 1,7%(m/m).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4630 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4700.

Yen

General overview

We believe that the raw materials low prices as well as the Chinese economy state shall keep the interest to the yen. Today the market will pay its attention to the USA Non-Farms.

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the flat trades at the level of 117.80.

Franc

General overview

The Swiss franc rose against the dollar on the wave of the total US currency sales after the FOMC protocols publication. Meanwhile, the Fed's representative Fisher predicts that the rate will be increased by 4 times in 2016. He noted that the Fed currently has no information how many times the rate would be changed in 2016. However, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank raised its GDP growth forecast in Q4 on Wednesday.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 10, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Chinese market collapse for more than 7%, the Chinese stock exchanges trading suspension, cheap oil â€“ all these factors supported the euro and the yen. The dollar experienced difficulties with a growth amid the global markets negative sentiment, the Fed soft minutes as well as the weak labor market data. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came higher than expected 200 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 295 thousand.

The struggle between the major competitors, the euro and the dollar, is continued. We believe that the euro current growth looks more like a temporary correction while the dollar remains on a horse. The pair received almost no support from the macroeconomic data which had the mixed background. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar increased.

The pound was the main outsider among the main currencies. The Cable has recently been quite sensitive to the oil prices drop which has fallen to 11-year lows. The Sterling slightly corrected after the weak USA data, in general, the pair remains under strong pressure. The UK published the trade balance: -10,64B against the forecasted -10,50B. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

At the same time Japan did not publish important reports. The dollar dynamics is the main driver for the yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply fell by the end of the trading day.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The consumer sentiment improvement in most sectors of the regional economy has not been transformed into the consumer spending increase yet that is seen from the retail sales reports. The Germany published import (1,6% against the forecasted 1,0%), export (0,4% against the forecasted 0,7%), payment balance (19,7B against the forecasted 20,0B) and industrial production reports (-0,3% against the forecasted 0,5%).

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1050 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound

General overview

Besides to the divergence between the Bank of England and the Fed monetary policies the Sterling is under pressure amid some fears that the UK may exit the EU. The referendum is supposed to take place in the middle of 2016. While traders are speculating about the possible referendum consequences the pound remains in a state of free fall. In addition, the oil price decrease keeps pressuring the Cable.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4480 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4400 will be opened.

Yen

General overview

The NFP report was last Friday main event. After a growth for 2012 thousand in November, the December NFP figure was expected to reach 200 thousand. However the relese came in at the level 292 thousand. The labor market state is one of the key benchmarks for the Fed in determining the monetary policy course.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 117.00 and 116.20 soon.

Franc

General overview

The dollar fell against the franc. Earlier the pair dollar/franc strengthened amid growing interest in dollar buying and the European shares recovery. The Chinese stock markets stabilized, European markets are recovering that reduces the demand for the safe assets, including the franc. The Switzerland unemployment rate rose to 3,7% from 3,4%, exceeding the forecast of 3,6%. The consumer prices fell in December by 1,3% y/y, after falling 1,4%.

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a â€œDead Crossâ€.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 11, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar again showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals, having shown weakening against the yen the sixth day in a row. In general, there was an attempt to restore the US currency positions amid the global markets improved sentiment. Last week the Chinese government decided not to suspend trading anymore that helped stock indexes to recover. This fact played into the dollar hands against the euro, still the pair loss appeared to be symbolic. At the same time unexpectedly strong USA employment report has not given to a greenback a substantial support.

The low inflation expectations, combined with the Chinese problems can make FOMC refrain from monetary policy tightening at the meeting on 27th of January, which will deprive the US dollar strong support. Yesterday the trading was defined by risk appetite amid lack of macroeconomic statistics. After a slight correction growth the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The British pound finished last week in the "red zone", still the smooth sterling devaluation is a positive factor for the United Kingdom economy. The UK trade balance release again points to the â€œstrong poundâ€ negative effect: the deficit amounted to 10.64 billion pounds in November which is by 1.08% more than in the same period in 2014. The pair pound/dollar decreased on Monday.

The major stock indices in Asia, Europe and North America lost more than 6% at the end of last week. The trend is in favor of the Japanese yen in the credit market: the yield differential of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds is decreasing that may attract investment to the US assets. The pair dollar/yen showed a decrease.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Germany data pressured the euro. In particular, the Germany industrial production fell by 0.3% in November despite the forecast of 0.5% y / y, while the trade surplus narrowed to 19.7 billion euros from the previous 20.5 billion. The price fell back down after the US labor market publication. However, there was just a short-term dollar strengthening despite the unexpectedly high index results.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.0925, 1.1050. If the price falls it will get to 1.0800 and 1.0730.

Pound

General overview

The pair GBP/USD continues to move towards the south. In addition to the fundamental factors (the Bank of England and the United States monetary policy difference), and the potential United Kingdom exit from the EU the UK statistics disappointed the market â€“merchandise trade deficit narrowed in November and fell short of the forecast, amounting to -10.640 billion, against the expected -10.500 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.4630, 1.4700.

Yen

General overview

The price resumed its decline amid the Chinese economic prospects continue pressuring the stock markets, the yen acts as a refuge currency in this case. The USA published the labor market conditions index: 2,9 against the forecasted 0,0.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 117.00 and 116.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 12, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The greenback received some support from the USA strong Friday's report where the employment rate rose much more than expected. In addition, the December labor market conditions index has improved to 2.9 vs. expected value of 0.0. The Conference Board employment trends index rose to 129.3 from the previous 128.3. This labor market picture could prompt the Fed to raise the rates earlier if the country inflation accelerates.

The China was again in the center of attention when its stock market fell more than 4%. As a result the euro was in demand as a funding currency. On the other hand, the â€œblack goldâ€ sales caused the German government bonds yield decline, causing the United States bond yield differential expansion. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease.

The UK industrial production report could not please the market with positive data: -0.7% m/m 0.9% y/y. The November production sector PMI lost 2.7 bp. The pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

One could see a moderate USD/JPY growth due to Japanese negative payments balance: the balance figures fell to 1.42 trillion yen from 1.49 trillion yen. There was a capital inflows decrease into Japanese securities and imports growth to a trade balance. The BoJ has lost 11.2 billion dollars in the second month of the fourth quarter which is also a negative factor for its economy. The consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 in December. The pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The improved European investorsâ€™ sentiment, the widespread dollar strengthening, as well as unfavorable economic reports helped the euro to weaken. The January Sentix investor confidence index surfaced a drop from 9.6 to 15.7 against the expected value of 12.2. In general, the euro position remains fragile in light of the ECB and the Fed policies divergence, as well the US and the Eurozone different statistics.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the support levels of 1.0800 and 1.0730.

Pound

General overview

The "black gold" quotations collapsed at the beginning of the week which is a positive factor for the US currency as the commodities price is denominated in dollars. The Brent bears are inclined to test the psychological level of 30. This is a negative factor for the Sterling. The 10-year UK government bonds yield reduced relative to their US and the Eurozone counterparts.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.4480. After breaking 1.4480 the buyers may go to 1.4560.

Yen

General overview

. Investors still avoid the "risky assets". This factor is a positive one for the yen as a funding currency. The Japanese Government expressed its strong concerns about the Chinese economy slowdown and about the external risk factors, noting that the country economy keeps growing, despite the China problems.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The flat trading will be continued at the level of 117.80.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 13, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The stock indexes are still the main drivers to the Forex currencies and we believe they will keep influencing the market till the end of the week, especially when the economic calendar is not full with important events.

The Eurostat published the Eurozone industrial production report. Leading indicators are showing mixed background. On the one hand, the Manufacturing PMI positive dynamics makes us think that the data output will be bit better than the forecast. On the other hand, the November Germany and France industrial production recorded a decrease which is a negative scenario signal. The data came in at the level of -0,7%(m/m) and 1,1% (y/y) against the forecasted -0,3% (m/m) and 1,3% (y/y). By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

The British corporations suffer from weak external demand and a sterling high exchange rate against the euro. We do not expect strong data taking into account the factory orders reduction and the December Manufacturing PMI decline. We note a fourth quarter manufacturing sector negative trend. Investors are beginning to lay in the quotes most pessimistic expectations about the fourth quarter UK GDP. The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat.

The carry trade deals closure has traditionally been a positive factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency Forex. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The secondary USA releases had a minor influence on the quotations dynamics. The economic optimism index showed a growth, but fell short of the expected value, having amounted 47.3 vs. expected â€“ 47.6. Meanwhile, the business confidence indicator came in at the level of 95.2 against the expectations at 95.4. The traders' attention was drawn to the Eurozone industrial production report which is expected to decline in monthly terms. The data came in worse then forecasted median.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a â€œDead Crossâ€.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.

Pound

General overview

. The weak productive sector suggests that the Bank of England will not raise the rates this year. Shall the Bank of England publish the negative comments on its Thursday meeting, the pound may fall under a new wave of sales.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.4400 and 1.4320.

Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened a bit amid the quite favorable macroeconomic statistics. In December, the consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 against the expected 42.3. Meanwhile, the Eco Watchers Survey rose to 48.7 from 46.1. However, the yen failed to hold its positions in a fading of interest in risk-free assets against the background of the stock market recovery. Only by the end of the trades the yen returned the leadership.

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the consolidating between the levels of 118.40 and 117.80.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 14, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar showed mixed dynamics with its major opponents. Once again, the stock market set the tone of trading. The American benchmarks were under pressure, the oil went below $30 per barrel, and the safe assets partially recovered.

The German 2015 GDP was published. The GDP showed a growth rate of 1,72% in the first three quarters of last year. The German economy leading indicators, such as the manufacturing and non-production sphere PMI, as well as the IFO index pointed to the fact that the growth rate significantly accelerated in the fourth quarter. The data came out at the level of 1,7% against the forecasted 1,6%. However by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

The Bank of England minutes publication was the main event of the day. The UK interest rates remained at the same level. The weak economic data together with the oil prices decline added headache to Mark Carney and his colleagues. Now no one talks about a possible interest rates increase. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed a slight growth.

The China stock market downtrend pressured the Asian, Europe and North America stock markets. The United States trades were also under bearsâ€™ control: the high-tech sector showed the largest decline. The carry trade positionsÑlosing contributed to the demand for the yen as a funding currency. Nevertheless by the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY increased.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

. Traders resumed the euro buying amid the US stock indices negative dynamics and a new wave of oil prices fall when the Energy Ministry report pointed to the oil reserves growth in the US stores. The ECB released its latest meeting minutes. According to the December European Central Bank minutes release the inflation outlook has been deteriorated again.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.0800 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0730

Pound

General overview

. The Bank of England's monetary policy decision was the main event of the day. The market did not expect any changes from the regulator, although the regulatorâ€™s comments regarding the country economy and the monetary policy prospects revived the pair GBPUSD movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation at the level of 1.4400 will be continued now.

Yen

General overview

The United States and Japanese government bond yield differential has been declining increasing the investment attractiveness of the Japanese assets, thus supporting the yen. The US initial jobless claims release has been published, traders expected 278.000 against the previous 277.000, in fact the data came in at the level 284.000.

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 118.40 and 119.20.

Franc

General overview

The December Import Price Index was published in the US: the forecast was -1,4% m/m vs. the previous data â€“ 0,5% m/m. The data came in at the level 1,2% m/m. The dollar has lost its past achievements after the Fedâ€™s Beige Book publication. According to the report the weak wage growth pressure as well as the general price pressure is minimal. The report generated some speculations that the Fed would not rush to increase the interest rates in such circumstances.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and in above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target â€“ 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 17, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market was quite volatile last Friday, still in general it tends to the dollar strengthening. The heterogeneous movement was mainly due to the stock and commodity markets instability. Besides the market sentiments, the currency dynamics was influenced by the European and the UK Central Banks while the macro data remained practically unnoticed.

The German 2015 GDP is encouraging. The GDP growth was 1.7% due to the personal consumption, the government spending and the investment growth. The positive data have helped to reduce the yields differential on the US and Germany government bonds. The Eurozone published the November trade balance. The data came in at the level 23,6B. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The debt market reacted to the British monetary authorities statements by the government bonds yields lowering in relation to its US and Germany counterparts. That fact, of course, reduces the investments attractiveness to the British assets. The Bank of England posted the Credit Conditions Survey. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades.

The demand for risky assets keeps growing which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. One of the last Friday key events was the USA retail sales report (-0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%) where the producer prices (on the forecasted level of 0,2%) and the Michigan University consumer confidence index (93,3 against the forecasted 93,0) were announced. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB published the December meeting minutes which wore a rather "soft" character. The regulator pointed to the inflation downside risks. Some of the Bank representatives think that the regulator can cut the rate by 20 basis points, while the other part of the voting members is against the rate easing by more than 10 basis points. The pair limited reaction to the published minutes indicates the monetary authoritiesâ€™ ambiguity who apparently chose a waiting policy.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.1150.

Pound

General overview

The GBP / USD showed no noticeable reaction to the Bank of England verdict, as the expectations regarding the meeting outcome were unanimous. The regulator confirmed its forecasts, leaving the current monetary policy course unchanged. The rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase program amounts 375 billion. The votesâ€™ layout has remained the same - 8 to 1.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4240 and 1.4160 soon.

Yen

General overview

It is impossible to ignore the debt market dynamics: the US and Japanese government bonds differential profitability has been decreasing for four consecutive trading days. This tendency increases the Japanese yen as an investment asset supporting the demand for the yen.

The first support resides at 116.20, the next is at 115.40. The first resistance stands at 117.00, the next one is at 117.80.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 116.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 115.40.

Franc

General overview

According to the Fed's representative Bullard the Fed did not think about the further rates raising in January. At the same time, he believes the interest rate remains challenging despite the Fed's policy normalization. The dollar is very sensitive to the national policy now.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The indicator shows a weak and confirmed buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and in above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a â€œDead Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target â€“ 0.9960. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 18, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The foreign exchange market showed a high volatility last week that reduced on Monday. The main volatility driver was another world stock exchanges collapse that happened after the oil price sharp decrease. However, the US reports have not gone unnoticed. The retail sales data were extremely weak which had increased pressure on the dollar. The retail sales declined by 0.1% m/m in December vs. the forecast of 0.0%. The previous value was 0.2%. The manufacturing sector business activity indicator fell to 19.37 from 6.21 while the expected slowdown was 4.0.

The United States was on a day off celebrating Martin Luther King Day. As a result there was a low volatility during the American session.

The Eurozone pleased the market with the trade balance strong data. Net exports increased by 23.6 billion euro in November which is 17.4% more than the year before. The trade surplus growth rate remained at 7.58% in October 2015. We see the growth rate acceleration which is a positive factor for the euro zone GDP. The pair euro/dollar slightly decreased.

There has not been published any important macroeconomic statistics in the UK, traders paid their attention to the debt market dynamics. The 10-year UK government bonds yield has been reduced relative to their US and Germany counterparts, thereby putting pressure on the pound. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased after a growth.

Traders avoid investments into the risky assets preferring the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However the pair USD/JPY showed a slight growth on Monday.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair fell after it was trading upwards, receiving support amid the increased interest to the safe assets. The positive trade balance report has also supported the EUR/USD â€“ the surplus widened to 22.7 billion euro from 19.9 billion against the expected 21.1 billion. However, the main growth driver was the block of the US statistics that discouraged the dollar.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.

Pound

General overview

The Cable was unable to take advantage of widespread dollar sales staying among the main outsiders. However, the Pound has had its reasons for that. Firstly, the Sterling is concerned about the UK economy state. Secondly, the Bank of England is unlikely to change the rate this year. In addition, the investors are waiting for the referendum where the UK future in the EU will be decided.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4240 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4160 will be opened.

Yen

General overview

The pair dollar/yen slightly increased. Earlier the Bank of Japan statements pressured somehow the pair. The regulator hops to achieve the inflation target in the second half of 2016, and also pointed to the lack of need for further monetary policy easing. The dollar weakening impacted the pair as well. Moreover, the active Japanese yen buying was due to the flight from risky assets.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

The pair can consolidate between the support level of 117.00 and the resistance level of 117.80

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 19, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

China published the last year 4th quarter GDP. That release defined the course of trading for the whole day. Leading indicators point to a serious economic slowdown. The Markit production PMI only once was higher than 50% in the past year. The China's fourth quarter GDP is estimated at 6,8% y/y that coincided with the predictions and became a driver for the market. The other China macro-economic reports have been very doubtful with their figures. Thus, the December industrial production rose by 5.9% y/y with the growth expectations of 6,0% y/y, while the last month retail sales increased by only 11,1% y/y. Traders expected the indicator to increase by 11,3 % y/y.

The euro zone published several releases. The surplus current account balance rose to 26.4 billion euro in November against 25.6 billion in October. The ZEW economic expectations index fell to 10.2 in January from 16.1 in December, itâ€™s the lowest level since October 2015. Economists had forecasted a decline to 8.0. The China slowing economic growth alongside with the developing economies problems are clouding the German economy prospects. Only by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

The December UK CPI became the main event for the GBP/USD. The United Kingdom labor market surfaces the mixed data. On the one hand we have an increased employment, which is an inflation indicator. On the other hand, the average earnings growth is reduced which is a negative factor for consumer prices. The oil strong sales will also exert the downward pressure on the CPI. The data came in at the level 0,2% y/y against the forecasted 0,1% y/y and 0,1% m/m that was at the forecasted level.

The reduced investorsâ€™ "risk appetite" shall contribute to the safe assets demand: primarily the Japanese yen, gold and the euro. As the Japanese yen is a funding currency â„–1 in carry trade operations we were again witness a downtrend development in the pair USD/JPY.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The traditional safe-haven assets remained without support. The euro failed to extend the Friday gains. Only by the end of the trades the pair showed a growth. Earlier the pair decreased feeling additional pressure from the EURGBP cross dynamics which had showed a marked decrease when the Cable tried to recover. According to the Eurostat the Eurozone inflation rose in line with the expectations in December. The inflation rose to 0.2% in December from 0.1% in November. The value corresponds to the preliminary assessment.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.

Pound

General overview

The sterling fell against the US dollar after Mark Carney said that the UK Central Bank was not planning to raise the interest rates at the moment. The December UK inflation reached 11-month high, as it was expected. According to the National Statistics Office, the consumer prices rose in December by 0.2% y/y, after rising 0.1% in November.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is undervalued and we may expect an upward rebound. The upward bounce potential target are 1.4240, 1.4320.

Yen

General overview

The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease. We should notice that the yen had about no chance of a growth. Besides the renewed risk aversion the BoJ statements put pressure on the yen. According to the Bank the falling oil prices is welcome news for the inflation. Haruhiko Kuroda expressed his intention to continue the quantitative easing policy as long as the inflation is stabilized at the target level of 2%.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong and non-confirmed sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 117.80 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 118.40 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 20, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The global stock markets showed an improvement which resulted in the dollar strengthening and the risk assets weakening. The China statistics showed the slow, but overall pretty good growth â€“ the GDP grew by 6.8% y/y against the third quarter 6.9%. Stock indices are optimistic about the China macro block due to increased expectations for the monetary authoritiesâ€™ additional stimulus.

The risky assets demand had a moderate negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. However, the quote decline was temporary - investors are still willing to buy the euro on dips. The United States issued the December inflation rate release. The data came in at the level of 0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%. By the end of the yesterdayâ€™s trades the pair EUR/USD slightly fell.

Meanwhile, the UK attracted the traders with the labor market data. In particular, the regulator presented the unemployment rates (5,1% against the forecasted 5,2%), Claimant Count Change (-4,3K against the forecasted 2,5K) and Average Earnings (2,0% against the forecasted 2,1%). After a decrease the pair GBP/USD rebounded upwards.

The defensive utilities sectors were the leaders of a growth on the leading stock exchanges. That may lead to the further capital flight from the "risky assets". The "risk appetite" decrease has traditionally supported the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The pair USD/JPY fell on the yesterdayâ€™s trades.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro zone monthly inflation rate remained unchanged while the core CPI rose by 0.9% y / y. We believe that the contradictory nature of recent data may explain why the euro had not showed any activity. In addition traders are waiting for todayâ€™s ECB meeting. The Eurozone has not published any reports except for the Germany producer price index (0,5% against the forecasted 0,4%).

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0925, the next are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

Pound

General overview

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney energetic speech became the main driver of the Cable fall. According to Mark Carney it is too early to talk about the rate hike, the economic tightening requires the further economic growth and the inflation acceleration. Carney also pointed to the low price pressure in the country. The Carney extremely "soft" comments disarmed the pound which left trying to restore.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4160, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4080.

Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese government bond yield differential once again decreased, thereby increasing the investment attractiveness in the Japanese assets. The US stock correction became the main driver of the safe-assets.

The first support resides at 116.20, the next is at 115.40. The first resistance stands at 117.00, the next one is at 117.80.

The indicator shows a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a â€œDead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 116.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 115.40

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 21, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The "black gold" continues to set the tone of the world stock indices and they, in turn, dictate the currencies dynamics. The trading is quite nervous and volatile. The dollar mostly takes positions. The United States published the weekly initial jobless claims report: 293.000 against the forecasted 278.000.

The single European currency still can not take the tenth figure that indicates the strong sellers presence. Despite significant sell-off in global stock markets since the beginning of the year - the euro was able to symbolically strengthen over this period. The risk appetite decrease is the demand for the euro as a funding currency. There was Mario Draghi's a press conference where he had announced CPI forecasts. The euro has fallen off after the ECB President Mario Draghi said that they need to "reconsider" the Bank monetary policy at its next meeting in March, when there will be fresh economic forecasts. Only by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD strengthened.

According to the November Unemployment Rate it is too early to write off the United Kingdom economy. Moreover, the pound devaluation against the euro and the dollar will boost exports which have a positive impact on the GDP. This factor reduces the US and UK government bond yield differential in the debt market. The pair pound/dollar increased.

Although the yen has strengthened by 2.9% since the beginning of this year we do not see any signal that the downward trend comes to the end. After a slight pause, investors again rushed to get rid of "risky assets". However the pair USD/JPY strengthened by the end of the trades.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting anticipation was one of the limiting factor for the pair's growth. The market did not expect from the regulator further easing policy steps, but hoped that Draghi would outline the current economic situation in the region and would give hints on the future plans of the regulator. The euro fell after the meeting when Draghi promised to reconsider the current economy policy.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a â€œDead Crossâ€.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 1.0800 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0730 will be opened.

Pound

General overview

The oil dynamics has quite a serious impact on the world markets in recent years. We believe that the GBP/USD is one of the pairs that suffers most of all from the "black gold" decrease. The pressure on the pound is so strong that even quite good UK labor market data failed to provide a substantial support to the Cable.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can break the resistance level of 1.4240. After breaking 1.4240 the buyers may go to 1.4320.

Yen

General overview

A new wave of safe assets buying again pushed the yen to the north. However, the Bank of Japan slightly diminished the yen ardor when the regulator said that it closely tracked the national currency dynamics. Traders interpreted this comment as a threat to the currency intervention, explaining their fears that a strong yen is not beneficial for the regulator. However, this new did not change the overall bearish picture of the pair.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The price is in the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a â€œDead Crossâ€.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 117.80 and 118.40

Franc

General overview

The investor sentiment deterioration again cut the greenback. In addition the latest statistics did not please the markets. The USA inflation slowed to -0.1% m / m in December when investors expected â€“ 0.0%. That might be a negative signal about the faulty state of the economy. This, in turn, may have an additional impact on the tradersâ€™ expectations relative to the second Fed rate hike.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The Sterling is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target â€“ 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 23, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Forex currencies showed an uneven trend, this time focusing not only on investors' sentiment and the commodity segment situation. The ECB meeting and the Mario Draghi's press conference has brought some volatility to the market. The regulator's decision was expected and caused no market reaction (the rate was left unchanged), as opposed to words Draghi, who seems determined to prepare traders for the Central Bank policy revision in March, when the economic forecasts are updated. The ECB President has expressed his concern about the inflation low levels and even noted the threat of consumer prices falling below zero this year. Thus, the bank's promise is clear, and now the market is to price the March monetary policy easing program. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The traders' attention was focused on the UK December retail sales. The retail sector growth sales rate made up 4.34% in the first eleven months of 2015. The increase became possible when the labor market showed an upward trend. The UK unemployment rate is now 5.1%, it is the lowest level in 10 years. Although the last year fourth quarter average earnings growth reduced, still it is still higher than a year earlier. The pair pound/dollar slightly decreased after a strong growth.

The United States published the secondary market housing sales report. The Mortgage Bankers Association release pointed to the data output worse than the consensus forecast. The refinancing index fell by 5.06% amid the mortgage rates rising. The December FOMC Meeting raised the discount rate by 0.25% which is reflected in the mortgage market. There was real wages decline in November by 0.1% at the same time. The pair dollar/yen showed a growth.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

After Draghi's comments, which were clearly "pigeon", the euro reeled some positions amid the two key Central Banks policy differences. However, it is too early to speak about a significant euro weakening as the US economy shows more and more surprises in recent years. We believe that the Fed might shed some light on its further steps prospects the next week during its planned meeting.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 0.0730 soon. The next target is the level of 1.0630.

Pound

General overview

In general, waiting the British Prime Minister Cameron speech in Davos became the main negative driver for the pair. The Prime Minister was supposed to speak about a potential UK withdrawal from the EU. This topic has recently become a serious concern to the British currency which has already significantly lost its position amid the economic situation deteriorating in the country.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are two levels of support: 1.4320, 1.4400.

Yen

General overview

We think that we will hear from the Bank of Japan head similar to the ECB comments on January 29th when the regulator meeting to be held. Meanwhile the Japan CPI growth is 0.19%.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the buyers may go to 120.40.

Franc

General overview

The world stock markets recovery has led to the dollar renewed demand which strengthened its position against most major currencies, in particular, especially against the so-called safe haven currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc. According to SNB President Jordan the deflation danger in Switzerland does not exist.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target â€“ 1.0190. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0280.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

ValdisTF · January 25, 2016

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The preliminary Eurozone business activity data came in worse than expected, in fact, the release pointed to a clear deterioration. We believe that report was not a reason for the euro weakening, as it is necessary to wait for more definitive data. The main reason was the Dragiâ€™s performance who hinted at the possible quantitative easing program expansion.

The debt market still shows an increase optimism regarding the British assets. The EUR/GBP long positions closure, after the ECB meeting on January the 21st , plays into the Sterling bulls hands. The UK December retail sales fell by 1.0% against the forecast of -0.1%.

The Japanese yen has safely returned to the strategic range of 118.40-120.70 which has been controlled by the BoJ entire 2015. Still the BoJ recently moved away from the yen control, focusing on the general economy problems. According to the Finance Ministry the December exports continued to decline. Many economists believe that the Chinese economy weakening is a reason of this decline. Still the yen disregarded this report.

The oil market strengthening is a welcome factor for the commodity currencies. However, last Friday â€œblack goldâ€ growth did not support the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The IFO business environment indicator attracted tradersâ€™ attention being correlated with the Germany GDP dynamics. The production and non-production PMI slowdown does not inspire and we do not expect to see the release with the data better than the consensus forecast. The risk appetite keeps growing among investors. The stock market bullish sentiment is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading down. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

The move below 1.0730 will signal the presence of sellers. The price may go deeper and reach 1.0630 soon.

Pound

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office reported about the retail sales reduction last Friday. Despite the negative release the British pound was in demand that might be a sign of strong buyers presence.

The oil market stabilization will be well received by investors. The Brent quotes rose by 10% last two trading days. As you know the Pound and the oil quotes are closely connected. We may expect the pound growth attempts.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a flat.

Trading recommendations

In the scenario where the buyers are involved the potential growth targets are two levels of resistance: 1.4350, 1.4470. In the event that the sellers manage to force below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure.

Yen

General overview

The S&P 500 index tested the minimum levels of 2015 in the past week after which we saw a strong demand and the price growth. The increased demand for "risky assets" has traditionally been a negative factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency. The rapid oil quotations growth brought the US stock energy sector in leaders.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a â€œGolden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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