"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened after it was under. The pair EUR/USD has increased on the January Germany retail sales positive data. The total indicator came out much better than the consensus forecast and the Germans seem to be able to pull the Old World economy out of crisis. The oil prices increase also have a positive impact on the euro quotes. However the pair sharply fell after the US economic releases publication.

The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the Markit Economics construction sector positive release. The business climate indicator in this economic sector returned to 60% which indicates the UK economy strength. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has fallen.

Less of all the US dollar has increased with the Japanese yen. The Japan Ministry of Health, Welfare and Employment reported that the wages level slight increased in January that cheered bears to short. The correction in the US stock market has increased pressure on the USD/JPY which fell. The pair grew after new US economic data were published.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay our attention to the euro zone retail sales for January. The data came out slightly better than the forecasted medians that supported the euro. However, the pair euro/dollar encountered the bears’ resistance near the 12th figure and in this connection the quotations growth will be limited by this area.

The euro continues to fall against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1040, the next one is at 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1040 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance levels of 1.1170.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

This week Markit Economics has reported the UK manufacturing and construction sectors growth that allows to count on the service sector business climate positive data output.

The bond market can also support the "bulls": the UK 10-year bond yields increase, comparing to the US and Germany analogues, is a positive factor for the pair GBP / USD.

Sellers lowered their price to the key level and broke down the support level of 1.5300 amid the very low volumes and the low volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.5200 false test is more likely to lead to the level of 1.5300 return.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders’ attention will be focused on the ISM service sector. Only the data above 57.0 will support the US dollar, otherwise we will have a small rebound downwards. The oil quotations growth will also deter "bulls" from building up long positions. In the light of this we expect the lateral trend during the day.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 120.40 and 121.60. If the price falls it will get to 118.00.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has crushed its main competitors. The pair EUR/USD came under attack after the US ISM service sector positive release. In February the indicator rose to the level of 56.9 while the employment component rose to the level of 56.4 which is the highest value over the past three months and it allows us to count on the Non-Farm positive release on Friday 6 March. In addition, the dollar got the support from the ECB rates announcement and Mario Draghi’s speech. Against this background, the pair euro/dollar broke through the strong support level of 1.1040.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was also under pressure. Markit Economics has reported about the business optimism index decrease in the US service sector while the same US index was better than the forecasted medians. The "black gold" tendency also added negativity to the overall picture in the market - the week US crude stocks have again increased which caused the major quotation reduction.

The technical correction in the US stock market did not allow the dollar to strengthen its positions with the Japanese yen. At the end of the trading day the key benchmarks decreased by 0.5% which constrained the bulls from active attack.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday’s main event was the ECB meeting results announcement and Mario Draghi’s perfomance. The easing monetary policy started to bear fruit - there was a high private sector credit growth in January. The euro low rate will reflect positively on the trade balance which eventually helped to reduce the unemployment rate to 11.2%. However, it is too early to talk about the economic rates growth.

The Eurozone inflation expectations are still quite low - the German 10-year bond yields are now near historic lows and this factor will put pressure on the pair EUR/USD.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0950, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1040 the next one is at 1.1170.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 1.0790. If the price grows it will get to 1.1170.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Gilts 10-year bond yields increase proves the best their hard work. The oil prices increase have a positive impact on the February and March CPI index. In the light of this, the regulator should not launch the monetary easing. The ISM service sector positive releases cheered bulls to short and now the US dollar looks as a favorite one.

The UK and Germany 10-year bond yields reached 150 basis points, indicating the downward trend continuation within the pair EUR/GBP. Apparently, this factor will deter the British pound from the strong prices decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan and the US bond yields show insignificant fluctuations and in this connection it does not form distinct signals. After the technical correction in the US stock market we expect the bulls return amid the US positive macroeconomic statistics. This factor shall support the pair.

The dollar growth against the yen looks uncertain. There was the strong resistance level of 119.20 breakthrough amid the low volatility and the weak volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase targets are two levels of resistance: 120.40, 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc is moderately weakening against the dollar. On Wednesday the US dollar updated historical highs after the solid data publication about the US employment market.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9340. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.46. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 11-year low. Investors still win back the beginning of the ECB quantitative easing program. The US and Germany 10-year bond yields once again greatly expanded and the Non-Farms release came out better then forecast that caused the pair euro/dollar quotations decrease.

The pair GBP/USD is also under pressure, but it decreased more modestly in comparison with the major currency pair. The Bank of England left the monetary policy unchanged, but the institutional investors’ bullish sentiment towards the US dollar did not allow the British pound to strengthen its position. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has decreased.

The dollar growth was going on all fronts – the pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the day. The demand for the European risky assets and encouraged bulls to long and at the moment quotations reached the level of 120.90. However, the US jobless claims negative release cooled the bulls’ ardor but the employment rate in the US rose more than economists expected.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Last Friday main event was the February US labor market publication. The Non-Farm data output was better than it was forecasted. The positive publication was followed by the pair decrease. However, the US and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion will deter the bulls from the active attack.

Having consolidated below the level of 1.1040, sellers actively continued to decline the euro against the US dollar amid the increased volume. The mark of 1.0925 has been broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0790 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States released a set of important macroeconomic statistics. With regard to the non-farm payrolls release - the data output was better than the forecasted medians. The trade balance disappointed traders with its weak figures which can cause the short positions profit-taking wave.

After the strong support level of 1.5300 breakthrough which led to the bullish trend reversal, the first target was the mark of 1.5200 that had been already tested. The pair broke through the level of 1.5100 also.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4920 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Amid the US postive macroeconomic statistics - the bulls are going to break through the January maximum which is at the mark of 120.73. Simultaneous growth on the world leading stock markets indicates the high risk appetite which traditionally causes escape from the Japanese yen.

Buyers broke through and fixate above the last month maximum of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 121.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will consolidate with a tendency to increase after it reached the 6-week high of 0.9755 then the pair increased to the level of 0.9858. Its dynamics was affected by the US non-farm employment data results. The pair is supported with the large-scale improved market’s attitude towards the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

According to the February US labor market report the US economy has created 295 thousand of new jobs in February which significantly exceeded market expectations. Moreover, the overall unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to the level of 5.5%. The positive releases encouraged traders to long with dollar.

The greenback has lost some positions. Earlier the dollar strengthened along the whole market – at the end of the day the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 97.72 that has been the highest level since October 2003. The US Treasury bond yields increased up from the level of 0.64% to 0.72% on Friday - the bond market participants are guided by the Fed earlier monetary policy tightening. Fisher, one of the prominent Fed "hawks", talked about the interest rates increase at the June monetary regulator meeting last week.

The euro decline was intensified after the ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference where he specifically said that that QE may be kept and after the September 2016. The pair corrected at the yesyerday’s trades.

The pair GBP/USD decrease was intensified amid the dollar growth after the US labor market publication. Earlier the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged. The rates remained at the level of 0.5% while the repurchase assets volume was around £ 375 billion as it was expected. Nevertheless the pound strengthened on Monday’s trades.

The dollar rose against the yen amid the US labor market positive report. Another factor that put pressure on the yen was the fact that China had established the economic outlook in 2015 at the level of 7% which was lower than the last year forecast of 7.5%. The Prime Minister Li Keqiang stated about it at the Parliament opening session.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

After the labor market release, according to which the unemployment rate fell down to 5.5%, the expectations regarding to the Federal Reserve monetary policy only increased The euro position looks unconvincing - the US and Germany 10-year bond yields increased by 17 basis points to the level of 185.8.

The US labor market positive fundamental data just strengthened the bearish EUR/USD trend. The pair slightly corrected from the last week minimums.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.0925. If the price falls it will get to 1.0790 and 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the bond market dynamics. Before the US Federal Reserve meeting which is scheduled for March 17-18, the Forex market will live with rumors about the imminent monetary policy tightening. We believe that this factor shall support the US dollar.

Sellers have broken through the two quite strong support levels: 1.5200 and 1.5100. The levels breakthrough was on the increased volume. Then the pair turned upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5200, 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

According to the revised data, the Japan GDP growth was 1.5% on the annual basis that is lower than the previously reported GDP growth preliminary data that was 2.2%. The economists’ forecasted 2.2% as well. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields increased by 13 basis points which is a strong bullish factor for the US dollar.

The US dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen, breaking through the strong resistance level of 120.30 amid the increased trading volume.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week traders fixed the US dollar long positions profits - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.60. The pair EUR/USD could strengthen its position to the level of 1.0906 after significant sales, but then bears returned to the market. The German 10-year bond yields declined to the US and the UK analogues which determined the single European currency destiny.

On the contrary, at the beginning of the week the pair GBP / USD showed a growth. The pair’s sales encouraged bulls to long. The positive trend has been for two days then the pair returned to sales. The pair was trading different directed.

The negative trade balance data and the Japan GDP for the fourth quarter allowed traders to break through the resistance level of 121.60. Due to the net imports strong growth in January, we conclude that the Japan economy has been weakening, despite the strong yen devaluation which had to strengthen export. Nevertheless the pair could not fixate above the level of 121.60 and it fell below it.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We will pay attention to the bond market dynamics, namely to the 10- year government bond yields. The current US Treasuries and German bonds yields are at the level of 188 basis points which has been the highest level for the last 25 years which is a strong negative factor for the euro.

The short-term price rebound was followed by the further price decline. The potential bearish trend is still preserved despite the reduced volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0670, 1.0550.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The dollar growth will negatively affect the "black gold" on the market. In this regard, the oil quotations reduction will further intensify pressure on the pound which is very sensitive to changes within the Brent varieties cost.

The British pound returned above the resistance level of 1.5100 after it broke through it downwards. The price rebound was at the reduced volume and reached the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.5140. but the pair could not fixate above the level of 1.5100 and is trading under it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.4920.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The fundamental background indicates the upward trend continuation. First, the Japan trade balance negative release for January shows the overall economy and the particular industrial production weakness. The second, the foreign exchange market is now living with rumors about the Fed monetary policy tightening and this factor strongly supports the dollar.

The resistance testing of 121.60 was followed by the very low volume. The pair returned under this level.

The strong divergence on the volumes signals towards the just formed reversal. However, the medium-term bullish trend is still relevant from the technical point of view.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading above the level of 120.40 buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak in the Forex market – the US dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.53. Yesterday the Germany 10-year bond yields renewed the historic low that caused the pair EUR/USD new sales wave. Now the single European currency is the most unloved investors’ asset. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar decreased, having ended the trades at the mark of 1.0534.

The pair GBP/USD has followed its “older brother” and also finished the trading day in the negative area. The US dollar growth encouraged bears to short with Brent which contributed to the UK 10-year bond yields decrease. As a result, the trades within the pair GBP/USD ended with the price decline.

After the 122nd figure testing the traders started profit taking in the morning with the pair USD/JPY. Early in the morning Japan published the February machinery and equipment orders release which showed a growth to the level of 28.9% on the annual basis that allows us to count on the industrial production growth in March. As a result, the trading day within the pair USD/JPY was finished with the price slight increase.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is declining lower and lower and at the current time there are no factors that can change the negative trend. The oil quotations decrease sent the Germany10-year bond yields to the fresh historic low that intensifies the Old World deflationary expectations.

There is a significant difference in the ECB and the Fed monetary policy which makes dollar a winner within the pair.

The price reduction takes place at the increased level that signals towards the increased interest in sales.

The price is finding the support at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect soon the January UK industrial production release. The PMI manufacturing sector moderate growth indicates the data within the forecasted medians that will not provide a significant support to the British pound.

Once again the US and the UK 10-year bond yields have expanded; the Brent crude oil decreased amid the US dollar revaluation that is a bearish factor for the British pound.

The trade continues below the resistance level of 1.5015 and towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.4800.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The sales wave swept across the US stock market which is a negative factor for the pair dollar / yen. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields reduction can also encourage bears to short.

The mark of 121.60 - 121.80 is the maximum in 2014. No wonder why there is a corrective price rebound downwards from this level now. It is worth noting that the price rebound was on the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar stopped its aggressive way against the main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.76. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 12-year low and then corrected. Investors continue to get rid of the Euro amid the increasing expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy that led to the USA and Germany bond yields significant expansion. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar slightly increase at the end of the day.

The UK industrial production fell by 0.1% in January which cheered bears to short. After breaking through the support level of 1.5033, the pressure on the pound was intensified and quotations have fallen down to the level of 1.4895 after where the pair rebounded. As a result, the trading day within the pair GBP/USD finished with the prices decline.

After the technical correction the USD/JPY bulls returned to the market and opened long positions at the attractive levels. This day there was not published Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics – traders bought the US dollar as it is now a leader in the Forex market. As a result, the trading day within the pair dollar/yen finished with the quotations growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is heavily undervalued now. On the other hand, the United States released the retail sales report. We count on the retail sector high demand amid the labor market positive data. In the light of this we may expect the bearish trend continuation. The US and German 10-year bond yields are testing the multi-year highs.

Unilaterally, the US dollar weakened against the euro. The downtrend is followed with a slight correction amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0670 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the UK January trade balance release and the Bank of England governor’s speech. The pound strong quotations growth against the euro makes the British goods less competitive in the Old World.

On the contrary, the United States can please traders with the retail sales positive data.

The price declined amid the increased volume which led to the strong support level of 1.4920 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5015. The approach to the level of 1.5015 may lead to a price rebound down.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US positive macroeconomic statistics will encourage bulls to long. Investors have again "risk appetite" that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen.

The upward trend near the resistance level of 121.60 was stopped. The formed consolidation below the level will lead to the downward correction in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 120.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar continued to strengthen against the Swiss franc and rose above the parity value, rising close the level of1.0160.

However, the upward impulse was not strong enough and it could not move above the rate.

Additional pressure on the franc received amid the rumors that the Swiss National Bank considered the key interest rate decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened against its major competitors after a slight decrease - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.30. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US weak macroeconomic statistics. The retail sales release disappointed traders with its weak data which the profit taking. However the pair euro/dollar has again decreased at the end of the day.

The oil prices, the UK and the US bond yields decrease provoked the British pound bearish rally. The EUR/GBP "shorts" closing also added negativity to the bulls within the "cable". At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD decreased.

The pair USD/JPY has shown a side tendency. The US retail sales negative release lowered the quotations to the mark of 120.65 where bulls started to long based on the uptrend continuation. As a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The dollar index basket (USDX) reached the level of 100.06, indicating the steady bullish trend. However, the US retail sales weak release can cool the bears’ enthusiasm. The dollar revaluation with the low consumer demand threatens the inflation growth. In this regard, we expect the FOMC conservative rhetoric on March 18 that can trigger the mass shorts fixation with the euro/dollar.

The downtrend might be stopped at the level of 1.0500 in the short term. There was formed the upward correction to the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.0670 from this level. Then the pair rebounded downwards from the level of 1.0670 and broke through the level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0420, the next one is at 1.0280. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.0670 for a correction growth. If the price fixates below the support 1.0420, it may continue the downward trend in the short term.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the downward trend development. The US moderately positive macroeconomic statistics will support small demand for the US dollar. The UK 10-year bond yields are reducing in relation to its main German and the US competitors which is a bearish factor for the "cable".

The strong resistance level of 1.4800 which has recently acted in a supporting role was broken downwards amid the strong volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4800, 1.4920.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market responded positively to the poor statistics as the retail sales decrease will restrain inflation and thus the Fed will not rush to tighten the monetary policy. The best example of this situation is the US Treasury bonds market - after publication the government 2-years securities fell sharply downwards which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate.

The whole week the trade has been held towards the sideway channel, the key level is the mark of 121.20.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 121.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair is under pressure from the deteriorated market’s attitude towards the dollar and demand for the Swiss currency within the growing pair franc/yen. The pair potential reduction is constrained by the Switzerland negative interest rates, the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the franc sales and the correction position.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0290.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar stopped its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 100.20, setting earlier the fresh 11-year high. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure due to the energy prices decrease. The Brent oil quotations fell by 4.4%. Against this negative background, the pair euro/dollar decreased. Nevertheless the pair recovered some losses at the end of the day.

The UK 10-year bond yields decrease to its US and Germany increased pressure on the GBP/USD. The oil market sales and the British pound strong growth against the euro make the Mark Carney’s statements about the UK monetary policy easing very realistic. However after a decrease the pair pound/dollar grew.

On the first trading day the US dollar managed to strengthen against its Japanese competitor – the pair USD/JPY showed a consolidation at the end of the day. This symbolic increase is explained by the US stock market weakness after the US producer price index negative macroeconomic statistics and the consumer sentiment releases from the University of Michigan.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US ISM manufacturing index has been showing decline for four consecutive months, indicating the industrial production slowdown. Mark that the ISM manufacturing sector employment component fell to its lowest level in February since April 2014.

The euro has been actively updating the price lows the third week in a row. The price decrease was followed with the increased volumes. The pair slightly grew and broke through the resistance level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued amid the Chief of the ECB M. Draghi’s speach. The pair may go to 1.0420 and 1.0280 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The cross-rate EUR/GBP short positions closing will put little pressure on the British pound. However, the US industrial production moderately negative release for February will deter bears from active sales. The UK bond yields declined in relation to the US and Germany analogues, indicating the low demand for the British pound.

The downward trend was stopped at the mark of 1.4730. Taking into consideration the first trading day weak volatility, the correction was formed. The resistance level of 1.4800 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. The way to the marks of 1.4650, 1.4500 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Risk appetite returned to investors which will support the demand for the pair. However, today we should not count on the strong price growth – the US moderately negative macroeconomic statistics will act as a deterrent for the bulls. Industrial production is a cyclical indicator and its reduction indicates the economic growth slowdown.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 122.40. If the price falls it will get to 119.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.55. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The industrial production release went worse than the forecasted medians that cheered bulls to long. In the light of this, the pair euro/dollar increased at the end of the day.

During the day the GBP/USD was in demand as well. The US industrial production weak macroeconomic statistics once again showed that the Fed does not need to rush the interest rates increase. However, at the end of day the pair GBP/USD quotations decreased.

Yesterday there was the lateral trend within the pair USD/JPY. On the one hand, the US industrial production weak release is a negative factor for the bulls. On the other hand, the more negative releases now come from overseas the more likely that the Fed will again hold conservative views and this factor will support the demand for the stock markets.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the German ZEW index data publication. In March the ZEW current conditions index changed to 55.1 from 45.5 while the ZEW expectations index increased to 54.8 from 53.0. In addition the euro area data showed that the CPI came out with the + 0.6% m/m -0.3% y/y in February.

There was a corrective price rebound upwards from the support level of 1.0455 with the following level of 1.0550 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.0670. If the price falls it will get to 1.0420.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields have been declining for four consecutive trading days regarding to their US and Germany counterparts that is a negative factor for the "cable" and will put pressure on the British pound. The low oil prices make the UK key rate decline a real event and against this background we mark the bearish sentiment predominance.

The corrective growth broke through the resistance level of 1.4800. The pair was not able to fixate above this level and decreased below it. The upward correction volumes were in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.4800 may lead to a price consolidation followed by a rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.4650.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan governor, Kuroda said that the probability of inflation increase to 2% in 2015 is very high. The salaries increase is important for the inflation growth to 2%. Kuroda noted that the oil prices decline was unexpected, the oil prices decrease influences the inflation in Japan that will be weakened by autumn.

More than a week the price has been consolidating below the resistance level of 121.60. This fact gives a good signal for the further bullish trend confirmation.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main market attention was directed to the Fed meeting release and to the Ms. Yellen speech. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates. Yellen’s speech did not support the dollar and it fell temporally. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the Germany business climate moderately positive release from the ZEW institute. The indicator has been showing growth for 5 consecutive months and went out to the highest level since February 2014. The release points out to the investors’ positive expectations about the Eurozone locomotive prospects. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar increased.

Yesterday the pair GBP/USD was under pressure as well. The EUR/GBP short positions closing has increased after the ZEW institute publication which caused the pound decrease. But then bears took profit that caused the technical rebound in the market. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD grew.

The pair USD/JPY has been in a narrow flat for three trading days. At the end of the day the US weak macroeconomic statistics supported bears.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The key week day has come for the entire Forex market. Late at night the Fed announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The inflation, retail sales and industrial production macroeconomic releases clearly point out to the lack of appropriate monetary tightening.

The level of 1.0550 breakthrough was followed by the price increase to the resistance level of 1.0670. The level testing has led to the consolidation formation. Then the break upwards though this level happened.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0790. After breaking 1.0790 the buyers may go to 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes did not support the British pound. In early March the unemployment reduction with the average earnings growth have intensified the UK inflation expectations. From the American monetary regulator, on the contrary, we expected "pigeon" rhetoric in relation to the monetary policy tightening.

The support level of 1.4650 has twice stopped the sellers. The first level testing was followed by a slight correction upwards; the second one has led to the short-term consolidation and a sharp increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward moveent and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4920 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5015, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The trading has been held for seven days amid the weak volatile consolidation in anticipation of the strong news – the Fed economic forecasts, the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC statement, the Fed Chairman Yellen speech which came out yesterday. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates changes. Yellen’s vague statements did not support the dollar at all.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 120.40, 119.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The trading week central event was news when the FED announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The weak macroeconomic statistics does not leave the FED any choice but not to rush with the interest rate growth.

The Fed lowered its forecast to the current year average rate: 0.625% instead of 1.125% as it was expected in December 2014. The GDP and inflation forecasts for the next three years also have been decreased. The FOMC governor Janet Yellen pointed out to the strong dollar as the main reason for the weak exports. Against this background, we have seen massive longs closure within the US dollar and the main dollar competitors’ strong growth. However the dollar recovered at the yesterday’s trades.

The Eurozone has not published any important reports. Of course the US Federal Reserve accompanying statement will contribute to the dynamics. But now we should not count on the euro substantial growth because of the fact that the difference in the regulators’ sentiments is too high. The trades on the EUR/USD closed with a decrease.

The UK has not published any important report. It should also be noted that the salary average level data showed a decline, suggesting the inflation pressure further decrease, although, the pound has showed its growth. The growth was short-term and the pair pound/dollar decreased again.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Fed has sent the dollar into the knockout. The shorts global closure at forex and commodity markets indicates the US dollar corrective movement development. The United States has published the last year payments balance report for the 4th quarter. During this period the US dollar has risen by 5% in relation to its main competitors (USDX) which has a negative impact on the trade balance. Nevertheless, the dollar recovered its losses.

Buyers were able to revise the price to 1.0925. The test turned out to be short-term and was followed by the active decrease. The support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 were broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.0550.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The 4th quarter payments balance weak release will increase pressure on the dollar. Traders significantly overestimated the UK labor market moderately negative release. The unemployment remained at the same level as the average earnings have declined, but the employment growth by the ILO methodology indicates the positive trend continuation the next months.

The pair pound/dollar has tested the strong resistance level of 1.5100 for its strength. The level testing was at the increased volume, but without breakthrough. The pair rebounded downwards and broke through the support levels of 1.5015, 1.4920, 1.4800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the falling will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4650.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market responded positively to the FOMC meeting results. The Fed does not rush to tighten monetary policy and bulls once again rushed to the stock market. Institutional investors will continue to be funded with the cheap yen which will put pressure on the Japanese currency. The US payments balance negative release will freeze the bulls’ enthusiasm for a time. However, the pair grew again.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss National Bank monetary policy decision can affect the pair USD/CHF dynamics. It is expected that the central bank will maintain the same position. The pair is under the market negative attitude pressure, demand for the Swiss franc within the growing pair franc/yen and the Switzerland ZEW economic sentiment indicator growth to -37.9 in March from -73.0 in February.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

We saw the volatility hike within the major pairs last week. After the US dollar strong weakening and the Fed meeting results announcement- the dollar was able to compensate some of the lost. Investors again rushed to long with the US dollar at the attractive levels. Only the 4th quarter US last year payment balance release is worth noting - the deficit increased by 113.5 billion dollars which confirms the dollar negative revaluation effect for the economy. The current year first quarter also does not promise anything good to the US and against this background, the remaining spring months the US dollar will be extremely difficult to rise up.

The euro market the was determined after the fact that the ECB launched the quantitative easing program. The liquidity injections will put pressure on the European currency for a long time.

Great Britain stands almost on the same level with the United States in regard with the regulators’ attitude towards the monetary policy course. Although Carney said that there was no reason to rush with the monetary policy tightening, the situation could change at any time and the Bank of England may start the interest rate increase.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

By the end of 2014 the US payments balance had increased by 412.93 billion dollars. The UK and Germany 10-year negative bond yields continued their decline which can spur demand for the EUR/GBP cross-rate and this face is positive for the euro.

The US dollar returned back its position on the increased volume. The price decreased to the support level of 1.0670. The pair rebounded from this level and rose above the resistance level of 1.0790.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields are rapidly falling relative to their United States and Germany counterparts which put pressure on the "cable". However, if the Brent crude oil quotes begin an upward movement, the pound will also be able to compensate some lost ground.

The price decline was on the increased volume and it decreased to the support near 1.4800. The price has broken the support level of 1.4800 for five times, but for short time. This time the pair rebounded upwards again and broke through the resistance level of 1.4800 and 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of the US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics traders may focus their attention to the bond market dynamics. The FOMC "dovish" rhetoric opens the way for the US stock market to the new highs that will strengthen demand for the risky assets and therefore the "safe- haven" yen will be unattractive for traders.

Sellers tried to break through the strong support level of 120.40. But the pair could not fixate below and rebounded upwards. The growth was short term and the pair fell again and broke through the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The market’s negative attitude towards the franc is caused by the Swiss National Bank decision, made up on the last week, to leave interest rates at the level of 0.75%, its inflation forecast for 2015 and 2016 and the bank statement about its readiness to prevent the franc growth. The pair is also supported by the market improving attitude towards the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 98. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics. On Friday traders continued to take profits with longs. Last week the Federal Reserve made it clear to investors that a strong dollar is an obstacle to the sustainable economic growth. In the light of this traders got rid of the US dollar and there was a steady demand for the major currencies. The pair EUR/USD has grown, the pair GBP/USD consolidated, and the pair USD/JPY decreased at the end of the day.

The current week economic calendar must be in favor of the US dollar. According to the IMM CFTC the market is still holding excessively long dollar positions. Disappointment in the business activity or inflation can bring to the next phase the dollar longs reduction in the short term. However, the dollar should keep the bullish trend in the medium-term, taking into consideration the monetary policy difference between the US and the major competing countries.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

This week we expect the Germany economic indicators activity and the US inflation publication. Traders do not rush with the positions opening amid the coming news. At the end of the last week, the euro showed a steady growth which lays a good foundation for the positive trend continuation.

Buyers have come to the resistance level of 1.0925 for the second time on the increased volume and broke it upwards. The formed consolidation in this level area can cause a slight rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790. The support level of 1.0790 testing will be followed by the euro growth.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector shows a growth that allows us to count on the British Industry Confederation positive release. On the contrary, the United States will not please traders with the strong macroeconomic data. It is observed the Germany and the UK 10-year bond yields reduction on the bond market which will act as a deterrent for the bulls.

The pair is trading around the level of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Investors still have "risk appetite" which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. American benchmarks are set to test the historic highs which is a bullish factor for the pair. The current levels are attractive for investors who count on the uptrend continuation.

The pair broke through the channel lower bound of 120.40-122.00 and continues its corrective decline.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 119.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has opened the trading week on the minor noteб but showed a different directed trades on the yesterday’s trading - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.17. The pair EUR/USD was again the growth leader still the dollar managed to regain some ground yesterday. The Germany and the US bond yields reduction increased the euro bullish sentiment. We got the CPI from the United States. The PPI and the retail sales negative releases did not allow us to count on the strong data release.

During the day the GBP/USD on the contrary remained under pressure. The British Industry Confederation has reported the production orders reduction due to the "cable" revaluation. At the moment quotations reached the mark of 1.4837, but then there was a rebound in the market. The UK and the US 10-year negative bond yield spread are declining which is a positive factor for the British pound.

In the dispute between bulls and bears the winner was not revealed during the day. The US secondary market housing sales negative macroeconomic statistics encouraged bears to short. However, the US stock market growth held back the yen from the strong growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the Germany PMI manufacturing sector release. The single European currency devaluation with the geopolitical tensions decrease is positive factors for the manufacturing sector. We expect the data output at the level or slightly better than the forecasted medians that will support the pair.

The euro strengthened against the US dollar. Its active growth was followed by the resistance level of 1.0925 breakthrough. The pair could not fixate above this level and fell below it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0790 may lead to a price rebound upwards.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

During the day traders may win back the UK and the US inflation releases.

Last week the Bank of England signaled to traders that the inflation increase is directly proportional to the wages rapid growth. Taking into account the fact that the UK average salary decreased in January it is now extremely difficult to expect the inflation surge.

Buyers do not hurry to continue the upward trend after the level of 1.4920 breakthrough. The price rebounded downwards and the trade stopped under the resistance level of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4800, 1.4650.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US negative macroeconomic statistics that we receive more recently deprives the dollar support. The inflation release for February also will not please traders with the strong data. On the other hand, demand for the risky assets is still preserved which is a negative factor for the low-yielding Japanese yen.

The pair dollar/yen consolidated near the psychological level of 120.00. Then the support level of 119.20 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar could compensate some of the lost positions, but then it fell again - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.15. The pair EUR/USD tested the psychological level of 1.1000 amid the Germany manufacturing PMI positive release. The indicator exceeded the annual average which indicates the manufacturing sector positive trend development. Traders fixed profits with the long positions as a result there was a technical rebound. The downward rebound was short-term and the pair increased again.

The GBP/USD was under pressure trying its very best to reach the level of 1.5015. The UK inflation slowed down to the level of 0% on the annualized basis in February which encouraged bears to short.

The pair USD/JPY has been trading in the flat. The UK inflation report coincided with the traders’ expectations and against this background traders closed short positions which allowed the US dollar to demonstrate its growth to the level of 119.97 at the moment. However, the US stock market weakness did not allow bulls to finish the trading day on the positive note.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Our attention will be drawn to the IFO institute publication. The ZEW and PMI indicators show the optimistic sentiment predominance in the German business community. We received positive data. The bond market trend also confirms the upward movement development. The Germany and the US 10-year negative bond yields are declining which is a positive factor for the euro.

There was the level of 1.0925 testing. The pair did not fixate under this level and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the US durable goods orders publication. American consumers are now set to save more than spend and in this regard it is difficult to count on the strong data. We still cannot count on the strong quotations growth. The pair EUR/GBP cross-rate quotations growth amid the UK and Germany negative bond yields reduction had a negative impact on the pound.

The pair rebound from the resistance level of 1.4920 led to the consolidation formation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4650 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US macroeconomic statistics will not be able to please traders with strong data which is a negative factor for the dollar. The day before there has been the lack of investors' risk appetite which traditionally causes demand for the Japanese yen as traders close their positions within the carry trade.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 119.20 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 120.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar recovered after it was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 96.97. During the day the pair EUR/USD once tested the level of 1.1050 after the US durable goods orders weak data publication. However, bulls were unable to consolidate near this level and as a result the day ended with the quotations fall.

The British Bankers' Association mortgage lending positive report along side with the US negative statistics let the pair GBP/USD close the trading day in the "red zone" – the British pound has fallen.

The pair USD/JPY was dominated by the bullish sentiment. The durable goods orders decline in the United States has increased pressure on the US stock market which has caused the demand for the Japanese yen. By the end of the day the pair dollar/yen has grown.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors will focus their attention on the bond market dynamics. The 10-year Germany/USA and Germany/UK negative bond yields have reduced which is a positive factor for the euro. It is also necessary to note the "black gold" price increase which is also a positive factor for the single European currency.

After the price consolidation below 1.1050 and this level test the pair rebounded downwards and broke through the support level of 1.0790.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0790, 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the February UK retail sales release. Leading indicators pointed out to the moderately positive data output and the release came out better then the forecasted medians. The 10-year UK bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany analogues which is a bearish factor for the British pound.

The consolidation was followed by the pound growth. Then the pair decreased. Trades are held below the downward trend line of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar rose at the end of the trades. We shall pay our attention to the stock market dynamics. The risky assets demand continues to decline, contributing to the bearish trend development. In the light of this, the Japanese yen will feel like "fish in water."

There was the strong support level of 119.20 breakthrough. The bears strengthened their positions amid this breakthrough. Nevertheless, the pair increased above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 120.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

There has been published the Switzerland February consumer activity indicator by UBS - it showed 1.19 against 1.11 in January. The Swiss franc changed a little bit against the dollar after the release output. We should note that the franc closed the trades with its decrease relative to the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to compensate some of the lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.65. The pair EUR/USD showed an increase to the level of 1.1052 amid the strong demand for crude oil, but then bulls took profits that caused quotations decrease near 1.0830. At the end of the day the pair euro / dollar has decreased.

The UK retail sales positive release encouraged bulls to long. At the moment quotations reached the mark of 1.4993, but bulls failed to consolidate in this area as a result we had a technical rebound. However, the trading day within the pair GBP/USD ended with the quotations increase.

The pair USD/JPY was trading in a side corridor. Sales in the global stock markets intensified investors’ escape into the safe assets amid the lack of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics. By the end of the day the pair dollar/yen has decreased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is consolidating near the strong level of 1.0925 which indicates the pressure from the bears’ part. We should note that the long-term trend is a downward one. The US GDP third (final) assessment was not able to please traders. The dollar revaluation has a significant negative impact on the US economy.

The local maximum update of 1.1050 led to the price reversal downwards. The price has consolidated under the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales positive report shows the private consumption growth which is a positive factor for the economy. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney once again stated in his speech at the Bundesbank conference that the next step from the Bank of England part would be the interest rates increase. Mark Carney also said that the life standard recovery in the US is stronger than in the UK.

The upward correction, formed from the support level of 1.4650 is gradually turning to a consolidation. The key support is the mark of 1.4800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan consumer price inflation has been slowing for eight month in a row; it raises expectations that the Bank of Japan will take additional monetary policy easing measures to achieve the inflation target. The consumer price index rose in February compared to the last year level of 2.0% which is below the forecasted medians of 2.1% and is lower the growth by 2.2% in January.

The price is finding the support at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 118.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc resumed its increase against the dollar. Earlier the franc fell after the Swiss central bank representative Silvan Tsurbryugg said that the SNB was ready to intervene "at any time", the Swiss franc was greatly overvalued. And Silvan Tsurbryugg does not expect "the long term negative inflation", he is confident that the economy would cope with the strong franc effect.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve board chairman Janet Yellen declared last week that the interest rate increase "can be guaranteed” in case of the economic recovery this year.

The pair EUR/USD has enjoyed a moderate demand amid the US weak macroeconomic statistics, then the interest for the dollar buying increased. Investors expected the GDP revision for the 4th quarter in a positive way by 0.2%, but the indicator remained at the same level. By the end of the day the pair has fallen.

The bearish sentiment also prevailed with the pair GBP/USD during the day. Traders built up short positions amid the US and the UK bond yields decline.

There was a flat within the pair USD/JPY. The Japan negative inflation report has allowed the pair dollar/yen to strengthen to the level of 119.50, but the US weak macroeconomic statistics returned the quotes back. Nevertheless, as a result, the trading day within the pair USD/JPY finished with a sharp growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect the downward trend development. The first March German important inflation report will be published this week. It will be the first CPI assessment which traditionally causes high traders’ reaction.

The retail sales and durable goods negative data with the Michigan Institute consumer confidence indicator decrease point out to the Core PCE weak data output. In this regard, the US dollar will be under pressure as this indicator reflects the state of demand in the country.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.0790 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0670 will be opened after this breakthrough. After fixing below the level of 1.0670, the level 1.0550 will become the next target.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases and in this regard, the traders’ attention will be drawn to the statistics from overseas. Leading indicators point out to the personal consumption expenditure weak data which is a negative factor for the US dollar. The low domestic demand indicates the weak GDP and therefore the dollar loses drivers for the quotations growth.

The bond market also confirms the bullish trend for the British pound - the UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the United States and Germany ones which is a positive factor for the pound.

The pound has been consolidating above the support level of 1.4800 the whole previous week. The short-term tests were on reduced volume and were followed by the small rebounds upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4800 line break that will open the way towards 1.4650.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan shall publish the industrial production report. The machinery and equipment orders decline in January indicates the Japan production capacity contraction.

The production sector PMI indicator in February was at the level of 51.6%, indicating the purchasing managers’ low optimism in this sector. The Japan goods exports from Japan have fallen to its lowest level for five months at the end of February which clearly confirms the negative trend.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60 and 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve board chairman Janet Yellen declared last week that the interest rate increase "can be guaranteed” in case of the economic recovery this year.

The pair EUR/USD has enjoyed a moderate demand amid the US weak macroeconomic statistics, then the interest for the dollar buying increased. Investors expected the GDP revision for the 4th quarter in a positive way by 0.2%, but the indicator remained at the same level. By the end of the day the pair has fallen.

The bearish sentiment also prevailed with the pair GBP/USD during the day. Traders built up short positions amid the US and the UK bond yields decline.

There was a flat within the pair USD/JPY. The Japan negative inflation report has allowed the pair dollar/yen to strengthen to the level of 119.50, but the US weak macroeconomic statistics returned the quotes back. Nevertheless, as a result, the trading day within the pair USD/JPY finished with a sharp growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect the downward trend development. The first March German important inflation report will be published this week. It will be the first CPI assessment which traditionally causes high traders’ reaction.

The retail sales and durable goods negative data with the Michigan Institute consumer confidence indicator decrease point out to the Core PCE weak data output. In this regard, the US dollar will be under pressure as this indicator reflects the state of demand in the country.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.0790 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0670 will be opened after this breakthrough. After fixing below the level of 1.0670, the level 1.0550 will become the next target.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases and in this regard, the traders’ attention will be drawn to the statistics from overseas. Leading indicators point out to the personal consumption expenditure weak data which is a negative factor for the US dollar. The low domestic demand indicates the weak GDP and therefore the dollar loses drivers for the quotations growth.

The bond market also confirms the bullish trend for the British pound - the UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the United States and Germany ones which is a positive factor for the pound.

The pound has been consolidating above the support level of 1.4800 the whole previous week. The short-term tests were on reduced volume and were followed by the small rebounds upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4800 line break that will open the way towards 1.4650.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan shall publish the industrial production report. The machinery and equipment orders decline in January indicates the Japan production capacity contraction.

The production sector PMI indicator in February was at the level of 51.6%, indicating the purchasing managers’ low optimism in this sector. The Japan goods exports from Japan have fallen to its lowest level for five months at the end of February which clearly confirms the negative trend.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60 and 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar closed the yesterday's trading session with the quotations growth against the euro. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.30. During the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the energy prices decline. The Germany and Spain preliminary inflation releases pleased traders with the strong data, but the oil prices decrease reduced to naught all the bulls’ efforts.

The pair GBP/USD has copied fully its older brother dynamics, but the pound grew at the end of the day. The UK mortgage lending release came out worse than traders had expected and this factor with the oil prices decline encouraged bears to short. The bears recovered some positions at the end of the trades.

The Japan industrial production negative release with the world's leading markets growth encouraged the bulls to long with the pair USD/JPY which has increased. However the dollar fell but the pair quotations have increased by the end of the day after a slight decrease.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany will publish the retail sales release. The retail sales fell by 0.5% m / m in February compared with January. The consumer confidence indicator growth with the car sales increase point out to the Germans desire to spend more money than to save.

Germany and Spain have already published the March inflation and both releases can be called positive.

There was the key support level of 1.0790 breakthrough. The level was broken through amid the lower volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to consolidated below the level of 1.0790. Then we expect the rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK released the last year 4th quarter payments balance. There was a negative trade balance reduction in the last quarter of 2014 which is a positive factor for the payments balance indicator. The UK consumer confidence index by GfK rose by 3 points to 4 points in February. All the five index components have grown.

The continued price consolidation above the strong support level of 1.4800 was followed by a breakthrough. The sellers could not fixate below this level and the pair returned above it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is are the resistance level of 1.4920. This level testing is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 1.4650 return.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was marked the carry trade transactions withdrawal the last day of the fiscal 2014 in Japan amid the capital repatriation by the Asian investors. The oil growth will contribute to the US dollar decrease which also plays into the bears’ hands within the pair USD/JPY.

The resistance of 119.20 breakthrough has led to the downward trend reversal. Despite the reduced volume, buyers have already come to the nearest target of 120.40. The resistance level of 120.40 approach is followed by the pair decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement.

and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 119.20 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 118.00 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar closed the yesterday's trading session with the quotations growth against the euro. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.30. During the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the energy prices decline. The Germany and Spain preliminary inflation releases pleased traders with the strong data, but the oil prices decrease reduced to naught all the bulls’ efforts.

The pair GBP/USD has copied fully its older brother dynamics, but the pound grew at the end of the day. The UK mortgage lending release came out worse than traders had expected and this factor with the oil prices decline encouraged bears to short. The bears recovered some positions at the end of the trades.

The Japan industrial production negative release with the world's leading markets growth encouraged the bulls to long with the pair USD/JPY which has increased. However the dollar fell but the pair quotations have increased by the end of the day after a slight decrease.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany will publish the retail sales release. The retail sales fell by 0.5% m / m in February compared with January. The consumer confidence indicator growth with the car sales increase point out to the Germans desire to spend more money than to save.

Germany and Spain have already published the March inflation and both releases can be called positive.

There was the key support level of 1.0790 breakthrough. The level was broken through amid the lower volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to consolidated below the level of 1.0790. Then we expect the rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK released the last year 4th quarter payments balance. There was a negative trade balance reduction in the last quarter of 2014 which is a positive factor for the payments balance indicator. The UK consumer confidence index by GfK rose by 3 points to 4 points in February. All the five index components have grown.

The continued price consolidation above the strong support level of 1.4800 was followed by a breakthrough. The sellers could not fixate below this level and the pair returned above it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is are the resistance level of 1.4920. This level testing is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 1.4650 return.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was marked the carry trade transactions withdrawal the last day of the fiscal 2014 in Japan amid the capital repatriation by the Asian investors. The oil growth will contribute to the US dollar decrease which also plays into the bears’ hands within the pair USD/JPY.

The resistance of 119.20 breakthrough has led to the downward trend reversal. Despite the reduced volume, buyers have already come to the nearest target of 120.40. The resistance level of 120.40 approach is followed by the pair decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement.

and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 119.20 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 118.00 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

We had a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD has grown amid the energy prices decline and the USA statistics releases. Bears continue to monitor the situation in the oil market that supports the US dollar demand. Even the euro area inflation positive release in March failed to encourage bulls to long with euro.

On the contrary, the pair GBP / USD enjoyed a steady demand during the day amid the UK bond yields increase. The UK GDP final data came out better than the forecasted medians which contributed to the British pound growth against the major competitors. Still the pair GBP/USD had fallen, but increased at the end of the trades.

The Japan fiscal year completion supported the demand for the national currency. The carry trade transactions withdrawal cheered bears to short and even the US consumer confidence positive release from the Conference Board was unable to change the USD/JPY trend.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Despite the euro zone inflation positive statistics - the single European currency cannot show any significant increase. The reason for that is the "black gold" bearish sentiment - as long as the Brent crude oil price is not fixed above the level of 57.50 $/barrel we should not expect strong demand for the pair. The US manufacturing sector business activity is of great interest.

Having broken the strong support level of 1.0790 downwards, buyers are trying to correct the price back to the level that had already served as the strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0790 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0670, 1.0550.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK industrial production sector release. The indicator rose up to 54.4 from 54.0 in March. Capacity use rates in February allow us to count on the purchasing managers’ positive sentiment prevalence in the manufacturing sector.

The pound has been at the level of 1.4800 for the second week, either breaking through it downwards or upwards. As long as the trend line of 1.4920 is not broken through upwards, the bearish trend potential is still preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.4920 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.4650 return.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar revaluation is a negative factor for the manufacturing sector and in this regard it is difficult to expect the ISM strong data publication.

There were the highly volatile news published (the Tankan large manufacturers sentiment index, the Tankan large non-manufacturing companies sentiment index). The news turned out to be positive for the yen to a large extent.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement

and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 120.40. We do not exclude the falls to 119.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

We had a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD has grown amid the energy prices decline and the USA statistics releases. Bears continue to monitor the situation in the oil market that supports the US dollar demand. Even the euro area inflation positive release in March failed to encourage bulls to long with euro.

On the contrary, the pair GBP / USD enjoyed a steady demand during the day amid the UK bond yields increase. The UK GDP final data came out better than the forecasted medians which contributed to the British pound growth against the major competitors. Still the pair GBP/USD had fallen, but increased at the end of the trades.

The Japan fiscal year completion supported the demand for the national currency. The carry trade transactions withdrawal cheered bears to short and even the US consumer confidence positive release from the Conference Board was unable to change the USD/JPY trend.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Despite the euro zone inflation positive statistics - the single European currency cannot show any significant increase. The reason for that is the "black gold" bearish sentiment - as long as the Brent crude oil price is not fixed above the level of 57.50 $/barrel we should not expect strong demand for the pair. The US manufacturing sector business activity is of great interest.

Having broken the strong support level of 1.0790 downwards, buyers are trying to correct the price back to the level that had already served as the strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0790 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0670, 1.0550.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK industrial production sector release. The indicator rose up to 54.4 from 54.0 in March. Capacity use rates in February allow us to count on the purchasing managers’ positive sentiment prevalence in the manufacturing sector.

The pound has been at the level of 1.4800 for the second week, either breaking through it downwards or upwards. As long as the trend line of 1.4920 is not broken through upwards, the bearish trend potential is still preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.4920 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.4650 return.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar revaluation is a negative factor for the manufacturing sector and in this regard it is difficult to expect the ISM strong data publication.

There were the highly volatile news published (the Tankan large manufacturers sentiment index, the Tankan large non-manufacturing companies sentiment index). The news turned out to be positive for the yen to a large extent.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement

and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 120.40. We do not exclude the falls to 119.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.42. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD has increased amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ADP and ISM releases came out much worse than the forecasted medians that encouraged bulls to long.

The last week caused the Brent crude quotations growth by more than 3%. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.

The United States once again disappointed traders with the weak macroeconomic statistics which adversely affected not only the US dollar exchange rate, but also the global stock markets. The investors’ escape from the risky assets had a positive impact on the Japanese yen. By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had slightly decreased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB last meeting minutes will have no pressure on the euro as Mario Draghi has already noted that the regulator monetary economists raised their benchmark inflation estimates over the next two years. The US ADP employment and the ISM manufacturing sector business activity weak releases contributed to the US and Germany bond yields spread reduction which is a bullish factor for the euro.

The strong support level of 1.0790 breakthrough was followed by the reverse breakthrough. Now the mark of 1.0925 is playing the role of the reference resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.0790. After breaking 1.0670 the sellers may go to 1.0670 and 1.0550.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the business activity publication in the UK construction sector. This index fell to 57.8 from 60.1 in March. It can be expected the US trade balance data output worse than the forecasted medians which will put pressure on the US dollar. The "black gold" quotations growth also plays into the bulls’ hands within the British pound.

The trade is near the strong support level of 1.4800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4650 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4500.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The ADP and ISM negative macroeconomic statistics contributed to the US and Japan bond yields reduction which is a bearish factor for the pair USD/JPY. The US stock market weakness points out to the lack of investors' risk appetite «which will also contribute to the bearish sentiment prevalence.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 120.40 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 121.60, further then towards 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose against the dollar after the second quarter start was marked by the number of weaker than expected US economic data publication.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.