Daily Markets News From FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options (Nov. 21)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3405, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3480, $1.3520, $1.3525, $1.3600 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6145, $1.6200;

USD/JPY: 99.00 (large), 99.25, 99.50, 99.80, 99.90, 100.00 (large), 100.10, 100.30, 100.60, 100.90, 101.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9020;

AUD/USD: $0.9300, $0.9325, $0.9350, $0.9360, $0.9375, $0.9400;

USD/CAD: 1.0450;

NZD/USD: $0.8300;

EUR/CHF: 1.2325;

EUR/JPY: 135.50;

EUR/GBP: 0.8425;

GBP/JPY: 161.00, 162.00;

AUD/JPY: 93.00 (large), 94.00

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/719

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank (21.11)

EUR/USD: Short at $1.3446 with a target of $1.3345 and a stop at $1.3519

USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 101.05 and a stop at 99.55

GBP/USD: Short at $1.6130 with a target of $1.5988 and a stop at $1.6181

USD/CHF: Long at 0.9113 with a target of 0.9251 and a stop at 0.9064

AUD/USD: Short at $0.9365 with a target of $0.9234 and a stop at $0.9418

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with an initial target of 1.0569 and a stop at 1.0395

* Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/858

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trading EUR/CAD with L.Vereshchagin

EURCAD technical analysis from 21.11.2013 by Leonid Vereshchagin

Chart 1. Daily EURCAD

The price is clearly moving in an uptrend. The pair is now testing the D1 trend line support. There is now an interesting chance to go short on the pair.

The middle resistance zone 1.4160-1.4200 of a wider 1.3890-1.4430 range is cinfirmed, so we are planning to sell from here. See more details on the H4 chart.

Chart 2. H4 EURCAD

On the H4 chart the resistance 1.4160-1.4200 area is strengthened by the trend line.

Trade signal

Sell: 1.4164

Stop Loss: 1.4265

Take Profit: 1.4050

Given the short-term character of the trade, we apply the (TP1) from the D1.

Chart 3. H1 EURCAD

Conclusion: Sell-signal confirmed.

Technical analysis by Leonid Vereshchagin

Independant FX trader, coach and analyst

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/863

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: comments from FBS

EUR/USD touched $1.3400 today after it made a big decline through the short-term support line on Wednesday.

Resistance lies at $1.3480 and $1.3500 ahead of $1.3550. Support lies at $1.3415 (Fibo retracements), $1.3380 (bottom of the daily Cloud, 100-day MA) and $1.3300.

The pair formed a hammer on H4 and got support from the Ichimoku Cloud. We think that euro may recover a bit, but will face resistance soon enough. We’ll be looking to the opportunities to sell EUR/USD in the $1.3480/3500 area with target at $1.3390 and stop at $1.3520.

If euro doesn’t recover and settle below $1.3400, it will become vulnerable for a slide to November lows.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/862

[⭐ kaito kid]

UBS: buy dips in USD/JPY and GBP/USD

UBS strategists recommend buying the dips in USD/JPY and GBP/USD.

"We continue to think that USD/JPY might be the only USD that is worth staying long or at least buy dips. We would need a clean break through the 100.40/50 area to see a continuation of this recent uptrend, while above 99.50, one can continue to buy the dips", UBS explains.

"As for GBP/USD, we look for an eventual test of the November high of $1.6198, so buy dips into $1.6050 with a stop through $1.5990".

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/861

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 22: Asian session

EUR/USD recovered yesterday to $1.3480 as the ECB President Draghi said that policy makers haven’t changed their mind on a negative deposit rate. During today’s Asian session the pair eased down to $1.3462. Watch for German final GDP at 07:00 GMT and Ifo business climate at 09:00 GMT and another Draghi’s speech at 09:30 GMT. We’ll also hear from the ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann and Executive Board member Peter Praet. The Eurogroup meeting also takes place today. GBP/USD is consolidating just below $1.6200 after it gained about 100 pips on Thursday.

JPY fell to fresh 4-month low vs. the USD and a 4-year low vs. the EUR on the signs of improving risk appetite. USD/JPY has formed a strong bullish candle yesterday, closing the day above the 101.00 mark. On Friday the pair extended the upside, but ran into sellers at 101.35 and gave some gains back. EUR/JPY broke through a strong resistance area to 136.40. USD/CHF rose to 0.9150.

AUD/USD remains under pressure for a third consecutive day. On Thursday the Aussie broke below the $0.9270 support on dovish RBA Stevens’ comments and hit a 2.5-month low at $0.9170 on Friday. The bears are clearly dominating here. NZD/USD fell to $0.8170 yesterday, but found some support here (200-day MA, Oct. and Nov. lows). The pair is swinging in the $0.8185/8245 range on Friday. RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott gave a speech in New Zealand today, saying the kiwi is overvalued.

USD/CAD climbed to the highest level since September at 1.0546 continuing its yesterday’s advance from 1.0450. Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated to lawmakers yesterday that low rates will remain appropriate until the economy shows more signs it’s gaining momentum. Canada will release inflation and retail sales data at 13:30 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/725

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 22: European session

EUR/USD rose to $1.3527. German Ifo business climate surged to 109.3 beating the forecast of 107.9. Another reason for euro to push higher was the comments from the ECB officials:

· The ECB’s president Draghi said that the situation in the EU has greatly improved, but the region still faces challenges. The ECB will announce stress test parameters by end January.

· The ECB’s Nowotny said that interest rates are now extremely low and can’t be seen as long-term equilibrium.

· The ECB’s Praet said EZ debt overhang has created deflation risks.

There are no market-moving data points due out of the US on Friday.

GBP/USD keeps fluctuating in the $1.6200 area. Britain’s economic calendar for today is also empty

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/727

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3445, $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3475, $1.3490, $1.3500, $1.3510;

GBP/USD: $1.6100, $1.6150;

USD/JPY: 99.50 (large), 100.00 (large), 100.50, 100.60 (large), 100.65 (large), 101.00 (large), 101.10;

AUD/USD: 0.9250 0.9300 0.9325;

USD/CAD: 1.0425 1.0430 1.0500 1.0560 1.0585;

NZD/USD: 0.8300;

EUR/JPY: 135.00 136.00;

EUR/GBP: 0.8325.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/726

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank (22.11)

EUR/USD: Short at $1.3488 with a target of $1.3318 and a stop at $1.3548

USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 102.59 and a stop at 99.95

GBP/USD: Possibly buy while above $1.6048

USD/CHF: Long at 0.9113 with a target of 0.9251 and a stop at 0.9064

AUD/USD: Short at $0.9275 with a target of $0.9115 and a stop at $0.9345

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with an initial target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0430

* Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/865

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 22)

Daily. Last week the pair was recovering above the Ichimoku Cloud and tested a horizontal line Kijun-sen (KS), which provided resistance at $1.3560. The bulls were unable to take this height. As a result EUR/USD once again fell inside the Cloud, down to its lower border. For now euro’s supported by the Tenkan-sen. If the prices don’t hold on the key level of $1.3460, in the near future we can expect stronger bearish pressure. The Cloud has turned bearish: Senkou Span A went below Senkou Span B.

H4. On the H4 chart, EUR/USD tested the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud, which coincided with the daily Kijun-sen line. Obviously, such a double obstacle is difficult to pass. Euro started correcting down from here which later led to the collapse of the currency pair to the bottom of the Cloud. Senkou Span A still keeps the market from falling, but the Tenkan and Kijun formed the Dead Cross ©, which can lead to further sales of the single currency.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/866

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 22)

Daily. Last week GBP/USD held above the horizontal Kijun-Sen (KS) line and now is moving up to the October peak. The pair’s trading in the $1.6200 area. If sterling settles above this level, it may conquer yearly highs in the near future. Note that the bullish Ichimoku Cloud is strengthened by the rising Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B, while Tenkan-sen (TS) narrows the Tenkan-Kijun channel up. The formation of the golden cross is possible, which would mean a resumption of the uptrend.

H4. Last week the pair was trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on H4. The market consolidated and had twice to seek support around the Cloud’s top. Toward the end of the week, pound found support in the $1.6070 area, and the pair rushed to new heights. Ichimoku indicator at this time frame is now fully on the side of the bulls. There is a golden cross © formed by Tenkan and Kijun. The Cloud’s expanding upward. Therefore, the immediate goal of the bulls will lie at $1.6250.

Tatyana Norkina, analyst at FBS Markets

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/867

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 22)

Daily. USD/CHF had to go back to the support line Kijun (KS), which formed a significant level at 0.9070. After testing this level, the pair immediately resumed the recovery and re-entered the Ichimoku Cloud. However, it should be noted that Tenkan-sen, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B are still set to decline. Therefore, despite the golden cross © the prospects for the currency pair may be not so rosy. If in the coming days the bulls won’t be able to overcome the resistance of Tenkan-sen (TS) and, further, that of the Cloud top, then US dollar won’t recover to 0.9300 for a long time.

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

H4. On the H4 chart the upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud also creates a problem for the bulls. Over the past week, they weren’t able to get into the positive region and gain a foothold on the Senkou Span A. Frustrated bulls pretty soon left the market, and the pair fell to the Tenkan and Kijun lines at 0.9130. However, these lines started to form a golden cross ©, which can have a positive impact on the market’s sentiment at the beginning of the next week.

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/868

[⭐ kaito kid]

FBS: bearish on AUD/USD

Despite the hammer candle formed last week, the attempt of AUD/USD to recover was unsuccessful and the pair got rejected in the $0.9450 area. Aussie broke below the daily Ichimoku Cloud and fell to the lowest level since the beginning of September.

AUD is now testing levels below 61.8% Fibo of the advance from August to October in the $0.9200 zone. Although Australian currency is pretty oversold, it’s extremely vulnerable for further declines. A fix below the mentioned area will make us target $0.9040 (78.6% Fibo, support line from 2008 lows) and then to $0.9000 and $0.8850. There may be some support around $0.9135. To negate the bearish view AUD/USD has to return at least above $0.9400.

It seems that the Reserve Bank of Australia is doing a pretty good job in trying to pull the national currency down. The Fed with its less dovish minutes and the prospects of an imminent QE tapering is making its input as well.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/873

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nomura: EUR's in trouble

According to Nomura, there are macro 4 reasons to expect a decline in euro:

Draghi emphasized the notion that the ECB still have several tools at its disposal to fight deflation.

Recent flow information, including from the ECB’s balance of payment data for September, has shown weaker equity inflows into the euro zone.

Key European equity indices have underperformed relative to the S&P500 recently.

Consensus expectations for euro zone growth, which had been generally drifting higher since April, now appear to be turning.

Nomura recommends selling EUR/GBP on the pullbacks towards 0.8400.

[orni308]

USDJPY is trading high, if there is a slight pull back its a good buying opportunity,,,,,,,,,,,,

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 25: Asian session

Oil prices fell on Monday as Iran and six world powers clinched a deal earlier today curbing the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The deal could lead to a further easing of the Middle East tensions and is seen positive for global growth and risk appetite. As a result, demand on the “safe” Japanese yen remains low. USD/JPY broke above the strong 101.50 resistance (July 8 high) and rose to 101.85. It is the highest level since May 29. EUR/JPY almost reached 138.00 and is trading at the highest levels since 2009. The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.3%. USD/CHF recovered from 0.9060 to 0.9090. Switzerland will release employment figures at 08:15 GMT.

EUR/USD tested resistance at $1.3560 and then slipped to $1.3540. There will be no important news releases in the euro area today. The ECB’s Noyer said that the region has low inflation and not deflation. As for the US, watch pending home sales at 15:00 GMT (forecast: 2.2%; previous: -5.6%). GBP/USD touched $1.6240 and then returned to the opening levels around $1.6220. BBA mortgage approvals are due at 09:30 GMT.

AUD/USD is retesting the Friday lows at $0.9145. Aussie attempted to recover earlier in the day, but was capped at $0.9190. This week we have more RBA speeches starting with the RBA Deputy Governor Lowe tonight, so AUD seems to be exposed to more downside risks. NZD/USD has recovered above the $0.8200 mark, supported by the talks of a strong New Zealand economy and subsequent rate hikes. Analysts at ANZ now expect the rates to be raised in January 2014. USD/CAD rose to 1.0560 approaching Friday’s high. Canadian dollar declined as the Bank of Canada’s expected to keep interest rates low since inflation fell below its target.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/729

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options (Nov. 25)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3445, $1.3450, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3515, $1.3540, $1.3550;

USD/JPY: 100.50, 100.60, 101.00, 101.20, 101.50, 102.00, 102.20;

USD/CHF: 0.9105;

AUD/USD: $0.9150, $0.9200, $0.9250;

NZD/USD: $0.8400;

USD/CAD: 1.0500, 1.0525, 1.0560;

AUD/JPY: 94.00;

EUR/CHF: 1.2275.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/731

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank (Nov. 25)

EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3627 and a stop at $1.3459

USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 100.39

GBP/USD: Long at $1.6205 with a target of $1.6380 and a stop at $1.6145

USD/CHF: Short from 0.9115/20

AUD/USD: Buy lower

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0480

* Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Elliott waves (Nov. 25)

Weekly. The pair keeps forming the global convergent triangle. Euro has completed the ascending wave [D], and we are now seeing the beginning of a decline in wave [E].

Chart 1. Weekly EUR/USD

Daily. EUR has fully formed downward impulse wave [1], and we are now seeing a rise in the correctional wave [2]. When it is complete, the decline will continue.

Chart 2. Daily EUR/USD

H4. Judging from the depth of the correction (B), the wave [2] is taking the form of a zigzag. However, the wave (A) of [2] isn’t an impulse. Therefore, we can assume that the whole structure is a wave plane with a shallow wave (B). In the near future we are waiting for a slight rise and then decline will continue.

Chart 3. H4 EUR/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/875

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Elliott waves (Nov. 25)

Weekly. The pair continues building an upward impulse wave [c] of B.

Chart 1. Weekly GBP/USD

Daily. Now we are seeing the construction of the wave (V). In the near future the advance will continue.

Chart 2. Daily GBP/USD

H4. Pound has fully formed wave IV of (V) which took the form of the plane wave. Now we are seeing the construction of the wave V of (V). In the near future bullish move in this wave will continue.

Chart 3. H4 GBP/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/876

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Elliott waves (Nov. 25)

Daily. Now we are seeing the construction of the final wave (V), which is the part of the global impulse 1. The market quitted the long correction and moved into the impulse phase. In the near future the advance is expected to continue.

Chart 1. Daily USD/JPY

H12. Now we are seeing the construction of the most powerful and rapid upward impulse wave – wave [3].

Chart H12. Daily USD/JPY

H4. Detailed layout of the wave [3] is shown at the picture. Now the wave (5) of [3] is forming. In the near future the rise will continue in accordance with the target line.

Chart 3. H4 USD/JPY

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/877

[⭐ kaito kid]

AUD/USD: Elliott waves (Nov. 25)

Weekly. The pair continues building an upward impulse wave [C].

Chart 1. Weekly AUD/USD

Daily. Aussie may be forming a downward corrective wave II, which is taking form of a zigzag. Downward movement will continue until level shown at the picture. When the wave II is fully formed, the rise in the wave III will start.

Chart 2. Daily AUD/USD

Daily. There’s also an alternative scenario, according to which we are now seeing the construction of the downward impulse wave V. If so, the decline will continue below the minimum which was formed by the wave III. Currently, it is recommended to consider short positions. It’s dangerous to enter longs, since the alternative option looks quite nice and right in terms of the rules of wave analysis.

Chart 3. Daily AUD/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/878

[⭐ kaito kid]

Will the JPY free fall continue?

By Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA

Japanese yen has extended the downside on Monday with the USD/JPY pair approaching the 102.00 mark – it is highest level since May 2013. The JPY bearish trend looks technically and fundamentally strong and supposes a further depreciation of the currency. RBS economists cite the two most powerful reasons for the USD/JPY upside: market recognition of rising inflation expectations in Japan contrasting with falling inflation expectations in other major economies and a continued deterioration in Japan’s trade balance.

USD/JPY move to 101.85 on Monday has hit the targets on a round of long tactical positions by some banks. The 101.50 level was the target for these positions with Credit Suisse (went long from 100.00) and Commezrbank (went long from 100.12).

As can be seen from the list below, the next targets for the banks long positions lie at 103.00 and even higher:

However, we should keep in mind that on the week ended Nov. 19 JPY short positions surged by 17K contracts to 112K. This is the highest level since July 2007. Such extreme positioning certainly poses a risk for a short squeeze in positioning in the near term.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/880

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 26: Asian session

EUR/USD rose from $1.3515 to $1.3540. Euro got support as the People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said that French Government debt is good part of Chinese investments and that euro id important part of Chinese reserves. The ECB’s Asmussen is scheduled to speak later today. In his last speech he didn’t rule out the possibility of a negative deposit rate. In the US watch for building permits and housing starts (13:30 GMT); S&P Case Schiller home prices (14:00 GMT); CB consumer confidence and the US Richmond Fed manufacturing Index (15:00 GMT).

GBP/USD formed a bearish engulfing on the daily chart and is trading in the $1.6150 area after the initial attempt to rise to $1.6175. The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney and some other MPC officials will testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee (10:00 GMT).

USD/JPY weakened to 101.30 after having reached 101.90 yesterday – the highest level since May 2013. There was no sharp JPY reaction to the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes released today, but it is interesting that some members saw Japan’s economic and price risks tilted to downside. There were no talks about the additional monetary stimulus on the November meeting. USD/CHF is trading on the downside, just above 0.9100. Yesterday US dollar gained about 50 pips.

AUD/USD has recovered from the yesterday’s low of $0.9125 (lowest since September), but remains capped by the $0.9200 mark. RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe held a speech, saying Australia needs a productivity boost. Unlike Stevens last week, Lowe didn’t try to talk the Aussie down. NZD/USD has extended the upside to $0.8260. USD/CAD is little changed today in the 1.0538 area. Yesterday US dollar made another spike to 1.0578, but failed to close that high. Canadian dollar weakened as the price of oil, Canada’s biggest export, fell after Iran and world powers reached an interim deal to set limits on its nuclear program.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/735

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options (Nov. 26)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3500, $1.3505, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3590, $1.3600;

GBP/USD: $1.6100;

USD/JPY: 100.20 (large), 100.50, 100.70, 101.00, 102.00;

USD/CAD: 1.0500, 1.0555;

NZD/USD: $0.8330;

EUR/CHF: 1.2420.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/737