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EUR/USD: news from the battlefield

EUR/USD remains supported above $1.3500, but is limited by resistance in the $1.3615 area. There’s also resistance at $1.3626 (61.8% Fibo of the decline from Oct. to Nov.) and $1.3642 (upper daily Bollinger band). Oscillators at H4 are in the neutral state. The single currency’s now testing support at $1.3570/60 (55-day MA, 200-period MA at H4). Further support lies at $1.3525, $1.3500/90 and $1.3468 (bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud).

Analysts at Scotiabank point out that the technical picture is mixed, because, on the one hand, the trend is breaking down, and, on the other hand, the bulls struggle to maintain the recent gains.

Spanish services PMI rose to 51.5. Watch the upcoming data:

8:45 GMT - Italian Services PMI

10:00 GMT - Euro zone’s Retail Sales and Revised GDP

13:15 GMT - US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

13:30 GMT - US Trade Balance

15:00 GMT - US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales

19:00 GMT - US Beige Book

eurusdh4.png

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/923

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CS: GBP/USD and USD/JPY trade

Long GBP/USD

Credit Suisse maintains a long GBP/USD position from $1.6355, with a tight stop below $1.6300, and a target at $1.6610. According to analysts, the current weakness is purely corrective. They stay bullish with an initial target of $1.6455. The next interim resistance level lies at $1.6483. "Near-term support moves to $1.6315/06. Below can see a retreat back to $1.6278, potentially $1.6262/58," they add.

gbpusdh4.png

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

Buy USD/JPY on dips

Credit Suisse also runs an active buy limit order on USD/JPY from 101.57, with a stop below 101.13, and a target at 105.55. Analysts think that despite the fresh rejection ahead of the 103.75 (May high for the year and the 38.2% retracement of the entire 1998/2011 bear market), the bigger picture suggests an eventual break for 105.60 and then - 110.60/111.60. On the downside, a break below 101.93 is needed to mark a minor top, for a retreat back to 101.75/65, potentially 101.15/13.

usdjpyweekly.png

Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/923

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AUD/USD approached $0.9000

AUD/USD is down by more than 100 pips on the day on lower than expected GDP growth (0.6% vs. 0.7% expected). Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey then triggered a sharper decline when he commented that official nominal growth forecasts would not be met.

Aussie got rejected at $0.9170 this week and fell below last week’s lows at $0.9055. The pair slid to the lowest levels since the beginning of September in the $0.9018 area and approached the psychological level of $0.9000 (H&S target, support line from 2008 lows). After such a rapid selloff AUD is oversold on the daily chart. There’s MACD and RSI divergence on H4.

However, Credit Agricole doesn’t recommend buying AUD/USD on the dips as the RBA’s interested in easing monetary conditions via a lower currency which it regards “still uncomfortably high”, while US labor data may positively surprise traders on Friday. “Looks like a test of the 28 Aug low at 0.8891 is looming,” said CA. Resistance lies at $0.9050, $0.9115, $0.9145.

Watch a bunch of US data today (see economic calendar at fxbazooka.com). The next Australian release is trade balance tomorrow at 00:30 GMT (the deficit’s expected to widen).

audusdh4.png

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/924

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Citi: 2 scenarios for USD/JPY


Citi points out to 2 USD/JPY scenarios from the formation analysis perspective.


1) The pair has already climbed up above the triangle and the upside target lies around 108.00 (the triangle width was about 10 big figures)


2) The shape of the triangle is converting into an ascending one from a symmetrical one so far, with the new upper border at around 103.70 (2013 high in May)


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"Even in the latter case, the breach of the new upper limit (103.70) would indicate a new extended target at 113.00, even while the high at 103.70 would act as a resistance in coming months. Thus, in the mid-term time horizon, the 108.00 level is recognized as a crucial target in either case," Citi projects.



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Dec. 5: Asian session

asian1.png

Currency market’s extremely volatile in the recent days as investors weigh the potential impact of growth indicators and monetary policy decisions in the world’s biggest economies.

EUR/USD tested support $1.3528 yesterday, but then managed to recover and close on the upside at $1.3605. The pair reached $1.3620 today. Euro holds grounds before the ECB’s meeting today (12:45 GMT) and Mario Draghi’s press conference (17:30 GMT). As for America, US preliminary GDP is released at 13:30 GMT and economists expect the advance growth reading to be revised up from 2.8% to 3.0%.

GBP/USD tested $1.6324 on the downside yesterday, but is now trading in the $1.6388 area. It’s an important day for pound as well. British government will release Autumn Forecast Statement with an updated economic outlook and previews the government's budget for the coming year. The Bank of England will announce its monetary policy decision at 12:00 GMT.

USD/JPY is trading under pressure for a third day in a row, descending from the 6-month high of 103.37 to the levels slightly below 102.00. Nikkei 225 index has retreated further from highs. USD/CHF slid to the levels just above 0.9000 and is trading at the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku Cloud.

Commodity currencies have found some support on Thursday. AUD/USD has recovered into the $0.9040 area after it touched a new low of $0.9000 yesterday. Aussie dipped a little in the Asian session as data showed Australia trade deficit widened to 529M (prior -284M) in October. NZD/USD has rebounded to $0.8200. USD/CAD is trading in the 1.0680 area after it spiked to 1.0707 yesterday. There will be important data from Canada as well today: building permits at 13:30 GMT and Ivey PMI at 15:00 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/764

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Key currency options (Dec. 12)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3460, $1.3485, $1.3490, $1.3500, $1.3520, $1.3565, $1.3570;

GBP/USD: $1.6200;

USD/JPY: 101.00, 101.25, 102.00 (large), 102.10, 102.50 (large), 103.00, 103.25 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9000, $0.9075, $0.9150;

USD/CAD: 1.0700;

AUD/JPY: 92.75, 94.60.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/765

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BoE meeting: no changes expected

The British Chancellor Osbourne will deliver the annual Autumn Statement at 11:15 GMT. The BoE December monetary policy decision will be announced a little bit later, at 12:00 GMT.

The Autumn Statement will provide an updated economic outlook and previews the government's budget for year 2014. This report creates upside risks for the British pound. The statement is expected to underscore the link between strengthening economic recovery and improving fiscal outlook for the UK.

As for the BoE meeting, it is widely expected that the policy will remain unchanged with a 0.5% interest rate and 375B pounds of asset purchases. The regulator will most probably stick to its forward guidance idea of the 7% unemployment threshold not being an automatic trigger for a rate hike. Despite the accelerated economic growth, the BOE doesn’t want to impede the recovery by a premature policy tightening.

Credit Agricole analysts assume that the inflation slowdown may make the BoE revise the employment threshold lower from 7%. Economists at Barclays recommend waiting for the meeting minutes to gain any fresh insights from the committee: in their view, today's meeting will be a non-event.

Bank-of-England.jpg

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Trade signals from Danske Bank (5.12)

EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3688 and a stop at $1.3509

USD/JPY: Short at 102.60 with a target of 101.43 and a stop at 103.03

GBP/USD: Long at $1.6260 with a target of $1.6475 and a stop at $1.6310

USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8966 and a stop at 0.9112

AUD/USD: Short at 0.9036 with a target of 0.8958 and a stop at 0.9088

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0745 and a stop at 1.0624

* Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/927

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EUR/USD: a final thrust up?

EUR/USD bulls are once again attacking resistance in the $1.3626/46 area. The market players are waiting for the ECB’s meeting at 12:45 GMT and press conference at 13:30 GMT.

According to the consensus forecast, the regulator will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25%, but traders are nervous being taken off guard by November’s rate cut. The attention will also be on the ECB’s staff projections for 2014 and 2015, and in particular on inflation forecasts. If the euro zone’s recovery continues, the ECB probably won’t ease policy anymore.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch points out that in the near term there’s risk of one last corrective push higher to $1.3682/1.3718. A close below $1.3524/1.3497 says the downtrend has resumed.

eurusdh4.png

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/928

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USD/CAD: bad times for loonie

USD/CAD is trading in the 1.0660 area after it spiked to 1.0707 yesterday, the highest level since the middle of 2010.

The Bank of Canada kept his main interest rate unchanged at 1% and said the risks of inflation staying below target “appear to be greater”. The central bank’s tone hasn’t changed much since October meeting when it switched from a soft tightening to a neutral mood.

Analysts at Credit Agricole point out that USD/CAD is driven by the difference in monetary policies of the US and Canadian central banks. US 10-year yield rose by 23 bps over the past month while the Canadian 10-year added only 15 bps. Canada’s disinflationary concerns may continue supporting the pair. Another bearish factor for CAD is a drop in prices of commodities such as gold and oil.

Still, CA regards the situation in Canada as much better than in other G10 economies and recommend waiting for higher levels in EUR/CAD and AUD/CAD to enter shorts. Societe Generale is sure that USD/CAD will break 1.0700 in the next wave of acceleration.

Support lies at 1.0650, 1.0605 and 1.0560. Resistance is at 1.0700, 1.0745 and 1.0780.

There will be important data from Canada as well today: building permits at 13:30 GMT and Ivey PMI at 15:00 GMT. Analysts also forecast that US Q3 GDP growth reading will be raised.

usdcaddaily.png

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/929

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FBS: USD/JPY trade


USD/JPY is trading under pressure for a third day in a row, slipping from a 6-month high of 103.35 to the levels below the 102.00 mark. For now, the US dollar remains supported at 101.80 (23.6% Fibo from the recent rally, H4 Ichimoku).


In a short-term we recommend selling the pair from 101.80 with an initial target of 101.50. Next support for the pair lies at 101.15 – the level is likely to limit the current bearish correction. We believe the greenback remains capped as long as the 102.80 resistance holds.


In a longer term we still remain bullish for USD/JPY with an initial target of 105.50. Waiting for the right moment to go long on lower levels.



usdjpyh1.png


Chart. H1 USD/JPY



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Commerzbank: EUR/JPY remains bid


According to analysts at Commerzbank, EUR/JPY will remain bid as long as it holds above 137.15.


In their view, euro/yen could extend the upside in the near term and to reverse from the 141.00 zone. “The market remains well placed to continue to probe the 140.30/141.00 resistance zone”.


eurjpyh4.png


Chart. H4 EUR/JPY



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Dec. 6: Asian session

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EUR/USD rose to $1.3677 yesterday and is correcting a bit to the downside ($1.3658) today. Euro rose on Thursday as the ECB President Mario Draghi sounded in no hurry to take further monetary easing steps. Investors weigh whether US payrolls data due today at 13:30 GMT will encourage the Fed to consider trimming stimulus as early as this month, at Dec. 17-18 meeting. Also pay attention to US University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 14:55 GMT (forecast 76.2 vs. previous 75.1). In the euro area watch for German factory orders due at 11:00 GMT (forecast -0.4% vs. previous +3.3%).

GBP/USD is trading on the downside for the third day, but remains above yesterday’s low at $1.6300. Britain will release consumer inflation expectations at 09:30 GMT. USD/JPY extended yesterday correction from the overbought levels. Despite the yesterday’s strong US data, the pair dipped to 101.60. On Friday the greenback has recovered to 102.15, but still remains in a short-term bearish channel. Japan’s Nikkei managed to steady around 15,200 after sharp falls of the previous two days. USD/CHF recovered from 0.8956 to 0.8970. Swiss consumer prices are due at 08:15 GMT (forecast: -0.2%).

Asian stock markets have spent much of the session in the red zone ahead of the US payrolls data. AUD/USD is consolidating in a tight $0.9036/80 range. The pair has twice tested the $0.9000 mark in the recent days, but has found support there. NZD/USD is trading under pressure a little bit below the $0.8200 mark. Gold held around $1,227 an ounce, heading for a weekly loss. USD/CAD got support at 1.0624 yesterday and recovered to 1.0660 today. Canadian labor market data is due at 13:30 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/772

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Key currency options (Dec. 6)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3490 (large), $1.3500, $1.3590 (large), $1.3600, $1.3610;

GBP/USD: $1.6300, $1.6350, $1.6400;

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.25, 101.50, 102.50 (large), 102.80, 103.00 (large), 103.25 (large), 103.50 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9000, $0.9100, $0.9105, $0.9130, $0.9150;

NZD/USD: $0.8250;

USD/CAD: 1.0600;

EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (large), 0.8450

EUR/CHF: 1.2250, 1.2300.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/773

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EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 6)

Daily. Last week EUR/USD consolidated within the Ichimoku Cloud supported by the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. At the end of the week the bulls became more active and took advantage of the Golden Cross ©. This led to the breakdown of the upper limit of the sideways corridor at $1.3600 and a consequent move up to $1.3680, the resistance formed the Ichimoku Cloud’s top. At the beginning of the next week the prices may remain within the Cloud. There are a couple of reasons for that. Firstly, we see a strong resistance at the current levels. Secondly, Kijun (KS) suddenly went down. Thirdly, the Ichimoku Cloud still has a bearish tone.

eurusdd1.png

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. At the H4 chart the pair spent the week above the Ichimoku Cloud. The upper border of the Cloud several times held the bears’ attacks and made euro bounce upwards. As a result, EUR/USD renewed local highs and the uptrend strengthened. Ichimoku indicator still looks quite optimistic. The Golden Cross remains in place ©. If the bulls maintain such growth pace, the pair may reach $1.3785 in the coming week.

eurusdh4.png

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/933

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GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 6)

Daily. GBP/USD fell from the year highs around $1.6440 set at the beginning of the week. Consolidation led the currency pair to Tenkan-sen which formed support at $1.6290. Taking into account the fact that the market is overbought, we can assume that the correction may extend further, causing prices to test Kijun (KS). The overall mood of the indicator remains bullish, but all the lines are directed sideways.

gbpusdd1.png

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. GBP/USD fell to the upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud. Senkou Span A can slow down the decline, but the Dead Cross will encourage sellers. Note that short-term prospects of the pair will be determined by the location of Chinkou Span line below the price chart. Therefore, in the coming week the correction is likely to continue. The nearest strong support level is in the $1.6230 area.

gbpusdh4.png

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/934
Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst

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USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 6)

Daily. US dollar is losing ground against Swiss franc. In the past week the pair dropped by almost 100 pips, forming a low at 0.8955. On the daily chart this means that the prices went below the Ichimoku Cloud, to the negative zone. All lines of the Indicator also rebuilt. Tenkan and Kijun formed the Dead Cross © and the Ichimoku Cloud has now bearish tone. Also note that the Chinkou Span is located under the price chart. In other words, the downward trend has resumed.

usdchfd1.png

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

H4. Early in the week the prices tested the lower boundary of Ichimoku Cloud around 0.9100. Unable to overcome this resistance, the bulls were forced to retreat, and the greenback renewed last week’s lows: 0.9030 support failed to hold and the price dropped to minimum. Tenkan and Kijun during this time regrouped and formed the Dead Cross ©. The Cloud still has a bearish tone and continues to decline. Targets at 0.8950 and 0.8930 may be hit early in the coming week.

usdchfh4.png

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/935

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USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 6)

Daily. US dollar jumped to 103.40 against the Japanese yen. Then the buyers started disposing of assets as the greenback approached 2013 highs and became overbought. The pair finally started correcting. By the end of the week it was trading below the weakest line of the indicator – Tenkan-sen (TS) in the 102.00 area. USD/JPY made dip lower, to Kijun.

usdjpyd1.png

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. At H4 chart the trend turned down. Here Tenkan and Kijun formed the Dead Cross ©, while Chinkou Span went under the price chart. Note that after a brief consolidation above the upper boundary of the Cloud in support area of 101.80/85, the pair still fell inside the Cloud. This means that the correction may take time. The next most important support levels are at 101.50 and 100.50.

usdjpyh4.png

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/936

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Trade signals from Danske Bank (6.12)

EUR/USD: Long at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3716 and with a stop at $1.3597

USD/JPY: Long at 101.75 with a target of 103.38 and with a stop at 101.09

GBP/USD: Long at $1.6275 with a target of $1.6455 and with a stop at $1.6215

USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8891 and with a stop at 0.9051

AUD/USD: Short at 0.9036 with a target of 0.8958 and with a stop at 0.9088

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0745 and with a stop at 1.0624

* Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/937

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Dec. 9: Asian session


asian1.png


Asian stock markets strengthened on Monday, supported by a combination of an upbeat China trade balance, firm US last week’s close on better-than-expected NFP and a weaker yen. Nikkei 225 rose by more than 2% in the Asian trade, while the MSCI's Asia-Pacific (minus Japan) gained 0.95%.


Both Australian and New Zealand dollar gapped higher today as China November trade balance showed a huge $33.8 billion surplus (vs. $21.2 billion expected) on Sunday. China's exports came in well above forecast in November, rising by 12.7% from a year earlier. Today’s figures show China November CPI came at +3.0% (forecast: +3.1%), while PPI came at -1.4% (forecast: -1.5%). However, AUD/USD growth attempts were capped at $0.9130. The pair reversed from here and closed the gap, weakening to $0.9090. NZD/USD weakened to $0.8290 after having faced resistance at $0.8320.


Japanese yen came under a renewed pressure as the markets were disappointed by Japan’s economic growth. Final Q3 GDP growth was revised down from 0.5% to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter and from 1.9% to 1.1% year-on-year. The lower GDP was due to lower private inventory investment and lower capital spending. This bad news support Japanese stocks as increase chances for an additional BOJ easing. USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 102.90 and is now swinging in the 102.88/103.20 range. EUR/JPY has hit a 5-year high of 141.55. Japan PM Abe will deliver a speech today at 9:00 GMT.


EUR/USD has hit a fresh 1.5-month high of $1.3720 on Monday, while GBP/USD is trading sideways in the $1.6355/25 range. USD/CHF is trading around a 1.5-month low of $0.8909. USD/CAD is consolidating in the $1.0640/60 range.



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Key currency options (Dec. 9)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).


Here are the key options expiring today:


USD/JPY: 102.20, 102.50, 102.65, 102.75, 103.00 ($600M), 103.10 ($500M), 103.20 ($600M), 103.25 ($800M), 103.50 ($600M)


EUR/USD: 1.3590, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3750


AUD/USD: 0.9100, 0.9190


USD/CAD: 1.0600, 1.0620, 1.0670


NZD/USD: 0.8200, 0.8350



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CFTC: USD longs remain high


Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Dec. 7 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on Dec. 3.


According to the report, large speculators slighly decreased their US dollar net long positions from $20.4 billion on Nov. 26 to $19.9 billion on Dec. 3. US dollar bullish positions had risen the previous 5 weeks to the highest level since Sep. 10 when the US dollar bets were long at a total of $22.0 billion


usd.png


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Trade signals from Danske Bank (9.12)


EUR/USD: Long at $1.3645 with a target of $1.3758 and with a stop at $1.3613


USD/JPY: Long at 101.75 with a target of 103.74 and with a stop at 102.21


GBP/USD: Long at $1.6325 with a target of $1.6475 and with a stop at $1.6255


USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8891 and with a stop at 0.8985


AUD/USD: Long att 0.9075 with a target of 0.9204 and with a stop at 0.9021


USD/CAD: Long at 1.0612 with a target of 1.0854 and with a stop at 1.0552


* Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders



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Dec. 11: Asian session


asian1.png


The US congress has unexpectedly reached a budget deal that ensures no government shutdown in January and October 2014. The dollar halted its decline versus the major currencies as this news had significantly increased the chances for the QE tapering in December or in early 2014. Asian equity markets are all trading in the red zone.


It was a bad session for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. AUD/USD weakened to $0.9130 after having peaked at $0.9170 yesterday. Aussie is pressured by a weaker Westpac consumer confidence data (down from 110.3 to 105) and by the news that GM/Holden car producer will stop manufacturing cars in Australia by 2017. NZD/USD slipped to $0.8270. The dairy giant Fonterra has cut the dividend payout forecast for 2014 today.


Yen crosses are trading under a slight pressure for a second day in a row. USD/JPY is trading in the red, but remains supported at 102.60 for now. Nikkei 225 closed the session with a 0.62% loss.


EUR/USD and GBP/USD have both weakened from the yesterday’s peaks, while USD/CAD and USD/CHF are a little bit up.



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Key currency options (Dec. 11)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).


Here are the key options expiring today:


USD/JPY: 101.50, 102.70 ($500M), 102.75, 103.00, 103.50, 103.75


EUR/USD: 1.3620, 1.3650, 1.3690, 1.3700, 1.3770, 1.3775, 1.3800


GBP/USD: 1.6400


AUD/USD: 0.9000, 0.9150


EUR/JPY: 140.00, 142.00


EUR/CHF: 1.2200, 1.2220


EUR/AUD: 1.5000


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