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EUR/USD supported by 1.3740






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD keeps the narrow range on Tuesday, meandering around 1.3740 and 1.3760 ahead of Draghi’s speech.


EUR/USD focus on Draghi


The pair remains buoyant in the mid 1.37s, bolstered by the prevailing risk-on trade on decent Chinese data while market participants wait for the speech by ECB’s Draghi due later in the European midday. Data from the euro area showed auspicious data from Italian Industrial Output, advancing beyond estimates 0.5% inter-month in October, while the GDP came in flat QoQ during the third quarter and contracted 1.8% YoY, matching the previous quarter readings. In the opinion of Analyst Paolo Pizzoli at ING, “Looking ahead, today’s industrial production data, which provide the first piece of hard evidence about 4Q13 developments, look like a good start. The pick-up in export order books and evidence of stock accumulation are useful ingredients for a positive GDP growth reading in 4Q13… All in all, we are inclined to confirm our forecast of a 0.2% growth for Italian GDP in Q4, which would mark the exit of Italy from its 8-quarter long recession”.


EUR/USD levels to watch


As of writing the pair is up 0.02% at 1.3744 with the next resistance at 1.3787 (high Oct.30) ahead of 1.3818 (high Oct.28) and finally 1.3833 (high Oct.25). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.3695 (low Dec.9) would open the door to 1.3638 (daily cloud top) and then 1.3620 (low Dec.6).







Dec 10,2013

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EUR/USD supported by 1.3740






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD keeps the narrow range on Tuesday, meandering around 1.3740 and 1.3760 ahead of Draghi’s speech.


EUR/USD focus on Draghi


The pair remains buoyant in the mid 1.37s, bolstered by the prevailing risk-on trade on decent Chinese data while market participants wait for the speech by ECB’s Draghi due later in the European midday. Data from the euro area showed auspicious data from Italian Industrial Output, advancing beyond estimates 0.5% inter-month in October, while the GDP came in flat QoQ during the third quarter and contracted 1.8% YoY, matching the previous quarter readings. In the opinion of Analyst Paolo Pizzoli at ING, “Looking ahead, today’s industrial production data, which provide the first piece of hard evidence about 4Q13 developments, look like a good start. The pick-up in export order books and evidence of stock accumulation are useful ingredients for a positive GDP growth reading in 4Q13… All in all, we are inclined to confirm our forecast of a 0.2% growth for Italian GDP in Q4, which would mark the exit of Italy from its 8-quarter long recession”.


EUR/USD levels to watch


As of writing the pair is up 0.02% at 1.3744 with the next resistance at 1.3787 (high Oct.30) ahead of 1.3818 (high Oct.28) and finally 1.3833 (high Oct.25). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.3695 (low Dec.9) would open the door to 1.3638 (daily cloud top) and then 1.3620 (low Dec.6).







Dec 10,2013

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Flash: Neutral Carney pushes Cable higher - OCBC Bank






FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank notes that Carney’s neutrality propelled GBP/USD above 1.6400 last week.


Key Quotes


“Neutral to positive rhetoric from the BOE’s Carney on Monday propelled the GBP/USD higher past 1.6400.”


“In the near term, the pair may continue to push the envelope on the upside with the 1.6450 area

seen as an initial resistance, while the pair may also need to exhibit resilience on any retracement towards 1.6300 to meaningfully retain its recent gains.”







Dec 10,2013

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Flash: Neutral Carney pushes Cable higher - OCBC Bank






FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank notes that Carney’s neutrality propelled GBP/USD above 1.6400 last week.


Key Quotes


“Neutral to positive rhetoric from the BOE’s Carney on Monday propelled the GBP/USD higher past 1.6400.”


“In the near term, the pair may continue to push the envelope on the upside with the 1.6450 area

seen as an initial resistance, while the pair may also need to exhibit resilience on any retracement towards 1.6300 to meaningfully retain its recent gains.”







Dec 10,2013

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US: NFIB Business Optimism Index (Nov.) rose to 92.5






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The National Federation of Independent Business informed that the small-business optimism index climbed to 92.5 for the month of November, leaving behind October’s 91.6 and exceeding the forecasts at 92.3.






Dec 10,2013

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USD/JPY finds support at 102.40 and trades back at 102.65





FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After declining around 55 pips from 102.95 to test fresh daily lows at 102.40 in the European session, the USD/JPY seems to have found support at this level with the pair trading back above the 102.50 area at 102.70.


Currently, the USD/JPY is trading around 102.65, 0.05% negative on the day. The short term perspective is strongly bearish according to the FXstreet.com Trend Index in the 1-hout chart. MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic is neutral.


USD/JPY levels


Above the 102.70, the USD/JPY would face resistances at 102.95 (daily high), 103.40 (Dec 10 high) and 103.55 (May 23 high). On the downside, immediate supports at 102.40 (daily low), 102.00 (psychological level) and 101.63 (Dec 5 & 6 lows).






Dec 11,2013

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USD/CHF falls to test 2-year lows at 0.8850




FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US dollar resumed its decline against the Swiss Franc in the last hour after trading sideways in between 0.8865 and 0.8885 during the European session. With the American open, the USD/CHF declined fast to test the lowest level since November 2011 at 0.8850.


Currently, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.8855, 0.20% down on the day. The short term perspective is slightly bearish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 1-hour chart. CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the MACD and the Stochastic are neutral.


USD/CHF levels:


Below the 0.8850, the USD/CHF would face supports at 0.8810 and 0.8800. On the upside, resistances are at 0.8880, 0.8900 and 0.8930.






Dec 11,2013

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Flash: USD/JPY stalling just ahead of the 103.74 2013 high - Commerzbank




FXstreet.com (London) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank notes that USD/JPY has again stalled at 103.40, similar to price action seen last week.


Key Quotes:


“The market appears to be stalling just ahead of the 103.74 2013 high. We note the Elliott wave count on the daily chart suggests a retracement back to 100.91/100.16 remains viable, however while underpinned by the cloud on the 240 minute chart at 102.26, we will assume an immediate upside bias.


The slide lower held over the July 2013 high at 101.54 and this we regard as bullish price action. Support is found at the 101.54 July high and 100.62 September high. We will stay bullish while above the 99.56 November 19 low.”


“Longer term, the market has recently broken up from a large triangle points to a longer term target of 108.86. We have an additional target en route at 105.48, the 61.8% retracement of the move down from 2007.”







Dec 11,2013

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US: Business Inventories grow 0.7% in October




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The US Business Inventories rose by 0.7% in October, following a 0.6% increase the previous month, the US Census Bureau informed today. Analysts expected slower pace of growth of 0.3%.






Dec 12,2013

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Flash: Bernanke to step down early?




FXstreet.com (London) - Strategist at BBH said reports indicate that the entire Senate vote on Yellen's nomination is likely to be held next week.


Key Quote:


This may not be in time for the FOMC meeting, but it does strengthen our base scenario that Bernanke steps down early and Yellen chairs the late January FOMC meeting.






Dec 12,2013

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EUR current levels uncomfortable? - Investec



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, underlined the rising concerns from the current EUR strength.


Key Quotes


"The main news from over the weekend came from comments from the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, indicating that the central bank would implement more monetary stimulus if they witnessed further appreciation of the Euro".


"Whilst GBPEUR has been on a steady climb in recent months as the pound has been one of the best performing currencies in the G10, the single currency has appreciated against most other major currencies and it’s clear that European officials are now uncomfortable with the impact this is having on European exporters".


"‘Further monetary stimulus’ could come in the form of negative interest rates and/or quantitative easing and the news led to weakness in the euro earlier today."







Apr 14, 2014

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GBP/USD hits lows sub-1.6700



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD extended its correction lower Monday although at a slower pace, with solid US retail sales data dragging the pair to fresh lows at the beginning of the American session.


The GBP/USD pierced below the 1.6700 mark and printed a fresh 6-day low of 1.6696 before finding support. US retail sales grew 1.1% in March, beating the 0.8% rise expected, while excluding autos, it rose 0.7% versus 0.5% expected, giving the greenback a boost.


GBP/USD technical levels


At time of writing, the Cable is trading at 1.6700, down 0.2% on the day, with immediate supports seen at 1.6695 (Apr 14 low), 1.6679 (10-day SMA) and 1.6622 (21-day SMA). On the upside, resistances could be found at 1.6743 (Apr 14 high), 1.6786 (Apr 11 high) and 1.6819 (Apr 10 high).







Apr 14, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Stocks and ruble fall on unrest in east Ukraine, threats of further sanctions against Russia



FXStreet (Łódź) - Tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalated over the weekend with pro- and anti-Russian demonstrators continuing clashes in the east part of Ukraine and Kiev threatening to conduct a "full-scale anti-terrorist operation" against people occupying government buildings if they refuse to leave by Monday morning.


The ultimatum hasn't been carried out however and more official buildings have been seized by pro-Russian protesters on Monday. Ukraine's interim president Olexander Turchynov once again called the developments a Russian “aggression” but at the same time suggested that he wasn't against a referendum on the future of the country and its shift from a republic to a federation


"We are not against holding a national referendum," the president said. "I am certain that a majority of Ukrainians will support an indivisible, independent, democratic and united Ukraine."


Furthermore, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Sunday during which the US accused Russia of fomenting unrest in Ukraine and warned it could impose further sanctions on Russia.


On Monday also European Union foreign ministers, gathered in Luxembourg to discuss the Ukraine crisis, suggested that more sanctions against Moscow would be imposed. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said that Russia was continuing to destabilize the situation in Ukraine on purpose and that quick action was required to stop it. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski urged other officials to expand the sanctions list as soon as possible.


"The EU has to make it clear to Russia what are the consequences of any possible future actions in eastern Ukraine," he said. "I expect a very specific signal when we can expect sanctions if Russia takes further steps."


But some of the EU officials, worried about the problems such a move could cause for gas transit, weren't eager to take such quick action and preferred to wait until more talks were held on Thursday in Geneva.


The Russian ruble fell to the lowest level in three weeks and stocks tumbled. The Micex Index registered its sharpest decline in a week, dropping by 1.7% to 1339.73.


Economic data


Israel's quarterly GDP data showed a pickup in growth to 3.2% in Q1, following a 1.8% rise the previous quarter, the Central bureau of statistics informed on Sunday. This result is more positive than the expected 3% increase.


Israeli CPI, released on Monday, climbed 1.3% on an annual basis in March, slightly up from the 1.2% rise registered the previous month. Month-on-month inflation increased 0.3%, compared with the 0.2% drop.


Year-on-year Polish M3 Money Supply, also published on Monday, rose 5.1% in March, up from 5.3% in February and above projections of 4.8% growth.


Technicals


The Russian ruble weakened 0.6% against the central bank’s target basket of dollars and euros to 42.1394 on Monday. USD/RUB grew by 0.74% to 35.8930.


On Friday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 49 at the last close and slid to 43 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3852 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 3587 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.5418, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.6723.






Apr 14, 2014

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USD/CAD turns south





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD spiked to daily highs but failed to sustain gains and dropped to negative ground for the day as the CAD benefited from solid US data and a positive opening in Wall Street.


US retail sales grew 1.1% in March, beating the 0.8% rise expected, while excluding autos, it rose 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The USD/CAD retested highs at the 1.0990 area before turning south, falling to a fresh daily low of 1.0955 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0960, recording a 0.14% loss on the day.


USD/CAD levels to watch


In terms of technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate supports at 1.0955 (Apr 14 low), 1.0929 (100-hour SMA) and 1.0900 (psychological level). On the upside, resistances are seen at 1.0991 (Apr 14 high), 1.1000 (psychological level) and 1.1009 (Apr 7 high).






Apr 14, 2014

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CORRECTION: European Monetary Union Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.2%) in February




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD bounced sharply off intraday lows and completely erased daily losses following the knee-jerk reaction to UK inflation figures.


The GBP/USD broke out yesterday's range and fell to a 6-day low of 1.6669 only to quickly bounce toward a fresh high of 1.6730. The pound reacted positively to inflation data, which showed UK CPI fell to a 4 1/2 year low of 1.6% YoY in March, meeting market's consensus.



GBP/USD levels to watch


At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.6725, virtually unchanged since opening, with immediate resistances at 1.6730 (Apr 15 high), 1.6743 (Apr 14 high) and 1.6786 (Apr 11 high), while supports are seen at 1.6669 (Apr 15 low), 1.6630 (20-day SMA) and 1.6603 (Apr 8 low).


From a technical perspective, Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com said the bias here remains negative below 1.6750 resistance, for a slide towards 1.6670 support zone.






Apr 15, 2014

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Fed's Yellen: US economy still recovering from the financial crisis




FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at the Atlanta Fed’s Financial Market Conference, Fed chair Janet Yellen says that major US banks might need more capital.


• "There might be room for stronger capital and liquidity standards for large banks," she suggests.


• New regulations do not encompass shadow banking.


• The FOMC is discussing further measures to address short-term wholesale funding market stability risks


• “New Basel liquidity rules do not fully address short term funding risk,” the Fed chair says.






Apr 15, 2014

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USD/JPY shaken by the US CPI data



FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar reacted erratic against the Japanese Yen following the US CPI data with the pair reaching a 1-hour candlestick's high of 101.95 and a low of 101.80; The USD/JPY remains below the 102.00 key level.


Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 101.80, down 0.02% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.01 and low at 101.69. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.


The Consumer Price Index in the United States came above expectations with 1.5% YoY figure in March. That's a relief from deflation fears and it provides the Fed with extra-time to deal with a interest's rates hike.


USD/JPY levels


If the USD/JPY clears the 102.00 area, next resistances could be found at 102.15 (Apr 9 high) and 102.44 (21-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 101.68 (Apr 15 low), 101.41 (Apr 14 low) and 101.32 (Apr 11 low).






Apr 15, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Ukraine begins "anti-terrorist" operation; central bank hikes rates to stop hryvnia decline





FXStreet (Łódź) - The Ukrainian-Russian crisis remains in the spotlight on Tuesday as Kiev decided to kick off the “anti-terrorist” operation against pro-Russian demonstrators occupying government buildings in the eastern Donetsk region. According to recent reports Ukraine forces have surrounded the city of Slovyansk and attacked a military airfield controlled by pro-Russian militants.


Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov told the parliament today that Moscow is not only targeting the Donetsk region but wants “the whole south and east of Ukraine to be engulfed by fire." He added that the aim of the operation in progress is to “defend the citizens of Ukraine, to stop terror, stop crime and stop attempts to tear our country into pieces."


The Kremlin said on Tuesday that there were no Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and that Kiev's allegations were “absurd.”


Meanwhile, the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller released a statement in which he assured the EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger that the transit of gas to Europe would continue without disruptions.


Fears of further sanctions and an escalation of the conflict with Ukraine sent Russia's Micex index down by nearly 2% on Monday. On Tuesday it fell by 1.3%. The index has already dropped by more than 10% since the beginning of the year.


In Ukraine, the central bank decided late Monday to hike its benchmark interest rate from to 9.5% from 6.5% to halt the sharp drop in the hryvnia seen since the beginning of the year. The overnight loan rate was also increased: to 14.5% from 7.5%. The currency reacted by jumping over 8% against the dollar on Tuesday, although the increase might be just short-term.


Economic data


Polish March CPI data, published on Tuesday showed a 0.1% increase month-on-month following +0.1% in February and slightly below forecasts of a 0.2% rise. On an annual basis inflation continued growing at a 0.7% pace, as expected


Also on Tuesday TurkStat revealed that Turkey's The 3mth Jobless Average edged up further to 10.1% in January from 10% in December, the highest level seen since March 2013.


Turkish budget surplus of TRY 1.67B recorded in January shifted to a deficit of TRY -5.10B in February.


Technicals


On Tuesday the Russian ruble was fairly unmoved against the central bank’s target basket of dollars and euros at 42.1805. USD/RUB rose by 0.45% at 36.1422.


On Monday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 56 at the last close and slid to 43 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3680 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 3639 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.5557, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.7026.


Ukraine's hryvnia surged 8.1% to 12.59 at midday.






Apr 15, 2014

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EUR/USD jumps to daily highs





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD gathered pace and managed to extend its recovery during the New York session, reaching fresh daily highs as the greenback weakens across the board.


The EUR/USD spiked to a high of 1.3832 as the dollar falls and stocks turn lower in Wall Street amid deteriorating market sentiment. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.3825 a few pips above its opening price.


EUR/USD technical levels


In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.3832 (Apr 15 high), 1.3862 (Apr 14 high) and 1.3882 (Friday's closing price). To the downside, supports are seen at 1.3794 (20-day SMA), 1.3768 (50-day SMA) and 1.3736 (Apr 8 low).







Apr 15, 2014

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