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AUD/USD returns to sub 0.9600

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The AUD/USD is netting strong gains during the week, managing to recover ground from multi-month lows around 0.9320 on Tuesday to Thursday’s tops near 0.9670.

AUD/USD posed for further pullbacks

However, the pair would resume its more ample negative trend as soon as the USD extreme positioning reverses and the Fed’s ‘tapering’ returns to the headlines. In the view of I.Spivak, Currency Analyst at DailyFX, “Prices are attempting a recovery from support at 0.9388, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, as expected. A break above near-term resistance at 0.9542, the 23.6% level, exposes the June 3 high at 0.9791. Alternatively, a push beneath 0.9388 exposes the 50% Fib at 0.9264”.

Key levels to watch in AUS/USD

At the moment the pair is retreating 0.53% at 0.9588 and a breakdown of 0.9571 (MA10d) would open the door to 0.9567 (low Jun.14) and finally 0.9430 (low Jun.13). On the upside, resistance levels are located at 0.9675 (high Jun.4) ahead of 0.9792 (high Jun.3) and then 0.9828 (high May 22).

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Jun 14, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD continues drifting higher

FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD is drifting higher still, from printing below the figure this morning to record recent highs in 1.5750’s.

GBPUSD has reclined a little back down along the 200d ma and is currently oscillating in the 1.5730 and 1.5740’s again while a bullish NAHB Housing Market Index was just printed for the Us economy as 52 against previous 44 and consensus of 45. The market is mostly awaiting FOMC and a raft of other data for an indication for where the next hint of any tapering might appear in the US. For the UK, we wait for further signs to see whether the economy can stay on track for a recovery.

GBP/USD downside risk

Technically GBP/USD may find it tuff to continue much higher until there are more confirmations that the risk of tapering the QE programme in the US will not be commencing in the near future and that the UK economy really is improving. Analyst at Commerzbank, Karen Jones, said a break below the 1.5490 June 7 low is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure and signal a slide back to the 55 day moving average at 1.5352 en route to the base of the channel at 1.5044

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Jun 17, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD remains capped by 100-day SMA

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - As most pairs in the FX space, the USD/CAD has spent most of the day in quiet consolidation, as investors' focus turns to central banks.

Having bounced from a low of 1.0150 during the European session, USD/CAD managed to trim losses but the recovery was short-lived as the pair was capped by the 100-day SMA at the 1.0180 zone. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0170 area, where it is virtually unchanged since opening.

Central banks eyed

In the absence of major data, the pair will likely remain within a tight range till Wednesday when the Fed will decide on monetary policy and release its economic projections and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will make his first public speech.

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Jun 17, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD/CAD faces bearish headwinds – UBS

FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's commodity-based currencies and outline the technical positions.

In terms of the AUD/USD, “The pair is consolidating; however with the MACD below its zero line upside should be limited with resistance at 0.9731. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326, suggesting a bearish outlook.” In addition, in looking at the USD/CAD, our focus is on the key support at 1.0120 ahead of 1.0027. Meanwhile resistance is at 1.0226 and is indicating a bearish outlook.

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Jun 17, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Cyprus calls for bailout redesign to avoid country's collapse

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Cypriot president Nicos Anastasiades has asked Eurozone leaders for the redesign of it €10Bn bailout approved in March.

In a last's week letter obtained by Financial Times, Anastasiades said that the bailout was “implemented without careful preparation” wiping out the working capital of Cypriot industry.

The president warned the Troika that the "economy is driven into a deep recession, leading to a further rise in unemployment and making fiscal consolidation all the more difficult." Anastasiades also urges leaders "to review the possibilities in order to determine a viable prospect for Cyprus and its people."

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Jun 18, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD recovery no sure thing – RBS

FXstreet.com (New York) - Arguably, the greatest challenge to the market’s recent “mine, everything” mantra has been the threat of a withdrawal of global liquidity.

According to the RBS Research Team, “The rise in US Treasury yields appears to reflect the market's concern that the Fed is prioritizing asset class volatility over inflation/growth. The strength of the US economy, or rather the lack of it, suggests that real yields need to stay very low, most probably negative. However, with inflation low and nominal yields rising, real yields have actually been rising fairly quickly.”

Markets are set to hear from the US central bank at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It’s likely that the Fed will be happy to see that some of the intense heat has been taken out of the equity market. Higher mortgage rates will most likely be of more of a concern.

It’s possible that the Fed signals a continued easy monetary policy stance through to year-end, knocking back market expectations of a tapering of its asset purchases as early as September. However, “it’s not clear that risk markets will recover in response as other drivers of the recent market correction remain. The USD may also continue to perform poorly.” the team adds.

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Jun 18, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD recovery no sure thing – RBS

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Fitch Ratings affirmed Switzerland AAA long-term rating Tuesday while keeping a stable outlook on the country.

Fitch cited diversified and wealthy economy, strong public finances and Switzerland's strong external finances and institutions.

The stable outlook reflects Fitch's assessment that the downside risks to the 'AAA' rating are currently not material.

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Jun 18, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: Gilts poised for bullish correction – RBS

FXstreet.com (New York) - The price of Gilts is poised for a recovery, as the MACD has turned bullish and candlestick’s Dragonfly Doji followed by a bullish engulfing marked a local bottom.

According to Technical Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “There is however a strong obstacle in the way – 20-day MA, which proved to be a trailing support/resistance. A break above is required to see a recovery to 116.26 and potentially 116.87.”

Yield’s negative divergence with the slow stochastic confirms the market is likely to see a bullish correction to 1.94%, which is the 38.2% retracement from the same move and the level of 100-day MA. However, after the correction is completed, the long-term bearish view would come into play again with 2.27% in focus.

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Jun 19, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: BoC Poloz Speech – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (London) - TD Securities research teams remind us that BoC Governor Poloz makes his maiden public speech this afternoon/ early eve.

Mr. Poloz speaks at 12.40ET and his comments will hit the wires just before at 12.25ET. There is an audience Q&A at the event and there will be a press conference after at 14.15ET. At his recent parliamentary appearance, the new BoC Governor’s position on many things sounded just like his predecessor’s so locals may be excused for focusing more on developments in Washington if a similar tone is struck today, explains the teams at TD Securities.

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Jun 19, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US equities pause ahead of FOMC

FXstreet.com (New York) - The US stock market tepidly opened to the downside, with the FOMC on tap later this afternoon at 18:30 GMT.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ fell -0.10% as it settles in region of 3478.65, down -3.40 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1648.35, descending -3.29 points or -0.20% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has moved higher at the opening, trading in the zone of 15282.41, presently -0.18% after a movement of -35.82 points.

Sectors are mostly lower at the opening, however the Telecommunications and Energy sectors have distinguished themselves as the losers thus far, falling -0.62% and -0.24% respectively. Moreover, the price of gold has settled at $1374.58 per oz., while silver is now negotiating a spot price of $21.73 per oz.

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Jun 19, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: Markets supportive of Bernankes language - BMO

FXstreet.com (London) - Stephen Gallo at BMO feels that Bernanke’s usage of the word “measured” as regards to his description of how asset purchases might be wound down in future was an interesting Greenspan-era “twist”, which gives balance sheet shrinkage an important “tightening feel” to it.

He said that although QE tapering is not by any means an actual tightening of policy, from the dual perspectives of market psychology perspective and asset prices, it will almost certainly feel as if it is. For now, however, he would tend to argue that this may be precisely what the Fed wants in order to gradually restore a sense of normality to things, and force market participants to allow fundamentals to drive overall behaviour and broader market conditions going forward. Unsurprisingly then, he say’s, overall conditions this morning in London were supportive of a new layer of QE tapering-adjustment (i.e in terms of USD strength, weakness in equities, strength in bond yields and weakness in high-yield FX), but things generally had a “controlled” feel to them, which is rather important in their view.

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Jun 20, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF spikes and retreats after US data

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF saw quick spike after the Philly Fed manufacturing index came out stronger than expected, boosting the USD across the board.

USD/CHF spike short-lived

However, USD/CHF is back to pre-data levels as the greenback is having a hard time finding momentum as indicators correct from overbought levels following the sharp USD rally. At time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at the 0.9295/0.9300 area, where it records a 0.2% gain on the day and having hit a 10-day high of 0.9360 during the European trade.

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Jun 20, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: 10-year US treasuries offer nice buys long-term – RBS

FXstreet.com (New York) - According to the RBS Research Team, “The odds favor a September start to Fed tapering, with the burden of proof on the data to prove otherwise. Our read after the Fed was that 10-years were likely to test towards key 2.40% support between now and payrolls, but we have already broken it.”

In addition, we favored covering shorts at the close yesterday but have not moved to buy recommendations and still have not. “We like the market long term and 2.40% support is key (watch the close), but its overnight breaking and the fact that the charts are not yet oversold, positions still need to be flushed (and are not yet short), and sentiment is not quite extreme makes us wait. Wait for daily momentum to cross bullishly and weekly momentum to get a bit more oversold and let this one play out.” the team recommends.

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Jun 20, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF entrenched in negative territory


FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CHF technical pair has been trading sporadically Monday, having oscillated continuously during US trading, whilst easing shortly after.

USD/CHF continues to swing

Presently, the USD/CHF is now operating in negative territory at 0.9342, down -0.31% in these moments. According to the analyst team at Mataf.net, supportive structures will trigger at 0.9281, ahead of 0.9198, and finally 0.9155. Conversely, the pair will face resistance at 0.9407, ahead 0.9450, and eventually 0.9533.

Earlier today in the United States, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May), which was reported at -0.3, compared with a figure of -0.52 previously. Moreover, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (June) came in at 6.5, climbing from a previous figure of -10.5 in May.


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Jun 24, 2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: AUD/USD faces bearish extension – UBS

FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's commodity-based currencies and outline the technical positions.

In terms of the AUD/USD, “The pair faces a strong support 0.9143. A closing break below this would be further negative. Resistance is at 0.9313 ahead of 0.9415, suggesting a bearish outlook.” The pair is moving higher and posting new highs – resistance is at 1.0524 ahead of 1.0658. Support is at 1.0363.

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Jun 24, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD clings to 1.3100

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Despite some intraday volatility, EUR/USD is trading little changed on the day around 1.3100, mark that has acted as a magnet to the pair on Monday.

EUR/USD consolidates around 1.3100

EUR/USD saw a short-lived dip to a 3-week low of 1.3058 at the beginning of the New York session but the USD lacked momentum to drag the pair below that level. With the subsequent bounce capped by the 1.3115 zone, EUR/USD was confined to a phase of consolidation around 1.3100 where it is nearly flat on the day.

As for technical levels, a break above 1.3122 (daily high) could pave the way to the 1.3200 level and 1.3245 (100-hour SMA). On the other hand, if the pair falls below 1.3058, next supports are seen at 1.3040 (Jun 4 low) and 1.3000 (psychological level).

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Jun 24, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EEUR/CHF recovery capped by 100-day SMA

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After falling to a 7-week low on Monday, EUR/CHF found support and bounced, with the euro trimming losses along the day.

EUR/CHF moves away from SNB danger zone

On Tuesday, EUR/CHF has climbed more than 60 pips as the Swissy lost some of its safe-haven shine on better risk appetite, and reached a high of 1.2295 before the 100-day SMA halted the advance. At time of writing, EUR/CHF is trading at the 1.2285 area, where it records a 0.4% daily gain.

In terms of technical levels, EUR/CHF could find immediate resistances at 1.2295 (daily high/100 day SMA) and 1.2350 (Jun 20 high), while supports are seen at 1.2230 (daily low) and 1.2215 (200-day SMA).

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Jun 25, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: Treasuries a buy on global volatility – RBS

FXstreet.com (New York) - According to the RBS Research Team, “Global markets remain highly unsettled as rising volatility 'shakes down' months/years of policy-induced carry trades.”

While we ultimately believe that the odds are against the US economy performing well enough to elicit a September tapering (especially given events of the past few weeks), we have little confidence that the positioning imbalances that have pushed rates higher (in emerging markets, MBS, dividend rich stocks, municipal bonds, REITS, etc.) have wrung themselves out.

As such, we prefer to ride out the storm in cash or maybe front end Treasuries (2-years around key support ~0.40%) until there are clearer signs that investor positioning is better geared to a world of less central bank policy activism (US and China), elevated geopolitical risks (Middle East, Turkey, Brazil, etc) and renewed strains within the Eurozone. Total Treasury inter-dealer broker volume was 137% of the 10-day average through this morning.

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Jun 25, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD stabilizes in negative territory

FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CAD technical pair has fallen lower during US trading, stabilizing in the region of 1.0470 Wednesday.

In the United States, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (June 21) was reported at 0.018M, against expectations of -1.900M and compared with a figure of 0.313M previously.

USD/CAD entrenched in negative territory

At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is entrenched in negative territory, operating at 1.0472 in these moments, unable to shake a -0.40% decline off its opening. Despite the recent stagnation, the Mataf.net analyst team has identified the next short-term measures of support at 1.0464, then 1.0417, and 1.0375. Alternatively, resistance lies higher at 1.0553, onto 1.0595, and 1.0642.

USD/CAD downside extension below 1.0530

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/CAD is trading a bit to the downside, which is expected to extend as long as the pair is stable below 1.0530. Meanwhile, the stochastic and RSI are reflecting the pair’s need for a downside correction.”

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Jun 26, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD bounces off support

FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CAD foreign exchange rate has broken off a tight consolidation Wednesday, paring losses now after a 13 pip rise during US trading.

USD/CAD paring losses

Given the recent movement higher, the USD/CAD technical pair still has a ways to go before crossing the threshold into positive territory. Presently, the pair is now trading at 1.0485 in these moments, negotiating a decline of -0.28%. According to the Mataf.net analyst team, a further decline in the exchange rate will bring the USD/CAD to support at 1.0464, then 1.0417, and 1.0375. If the rally continues however, resistances will be encountered at 1.0553, then 1.0595, and 1.0642.

USD/CAD bull trend has lost some momentum

“The USD/CAD continues to consolidate – short-term price action and studies suggest that the bull trend has lost some momentum over the past day or so, leaving the door open perhaps for a deeper correction of the sharp gains seen over the past week, especially of losses accumulate just a bit more from here.” notes the TD Securities Team.

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Jun 26, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD in 3-week lows

Fxstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The sterling continues to grind lower on Wednesday, dragging GBP/USD to fresh 3-week lows in the boundaries of 1.5330.

GBP/USD heading to 1.5300

The sterling remained apathetic to the BoE’s Financial Stability Report and Osborne’s Spending Review, while it seems to be more affected by MPC’s Miles, who advocated for further easing. The pound is also taking the hit after dovish comments by ECB’s Draghi. Camilla Sutton, Strategist at Scotiabank noted that the outlook on the pair remains bearish in the short term, adding “with most signals in sell territory and spot suggesting building downside momentum. In addition, spot has broken through the 50-day MA of 1.5387 and now flirting with a break of the 100-day MA at 1.5312. We expect further near-term weakness with a test down to 1.5200 in the near-term”. Recall that the bank holds a year-end target of 1.45 for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD critical levels

As of writing, the pair is down 0.39% at 1.5361 with the immediate support at 1.5300 (psychological level) ahead of 1.5293 (50% of 1.4832-1.5753) and then 1.5290 (low Jun.5). On the flip side, a break above 1.5442 (high Jun.26) would open the door to 1.5480 (high Jun.25) and finally 1.5500 (psychological level).

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Jun 26, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD shakes off earlier negativity

FXstreet.com (New York) - The EUR/USD foreign exchange rate refused to settle negatively (1.3000 session lows) and has thus jumped ahead and reclaimed its earlier gains during US trading

EUR/USD unable to breach 1.3000 level

After falling earlier towards the 1.3000 barrier, the EUR/USD subsequently bounced, bringing it to 1.3035 presently, or up +0.16% Thursday. The Mataf.net analyst team has identified measures of upward resistance at 1.3079, onto 1.3134, and ultimately 1.3181. Conversely, a push below the 1.3000 barrier will initiate support at 1.2977.

EUR/USD move down to 1.2840 could come into play

According to Xiomara Vargas at FXCM, “The EURUSD sliced through support at 1.3070/80 (38.2% Fib July 2012 low to February 2013 high, 50% Fib April low to June high) yesterday. A break here suggests 1.2960 and 1.2840 before the trend support off of the November and March lows comes into play.”

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Jun 27, 2013

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US data boost markets, dollar flat

Fxstreet.com (Edinburgh) - Positive data from the US economy are propping up today’s upside, with markets advancing for the third consecutive session. Fed’s officials also added to the upbeat momentum after confirming that the next steps in monetary policy will remain data-dependent. The greenback, gauged by the US Dollar Index, is alternating gains and losses, although keeping the trade above 83.00 the figure. The DowJones is advancing 0.73%, followed by the Nasdaq, 0.77% and the S&P500, 0.67%.

Bourses in Euroland closed with strong gains spurred by the good performance of the US data. The British benchmark led the winners advancing 1.26% and followed by the CAC40, 0.97% and the DAX, 0.63%. The EUR/USD is currently navigating around 1.3030 in a choppy session, despite the positive employment data from Germany and mixed results in the EMU from the consumer confidence and business climate.

In the commodities’ realm, the barrel of WTI is gaining 1.57% at $97.01 while the once troy of gold is extending its decline, falling 2.55% at $1,199.

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Jun 27, 2013

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EUR/CHF consolidates above 1.2300

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The euro has accomplished gains versus most competitors on Thursday, supported by better-than-expected German employment data and upbeat EMU confidence surveys.

EUR/CHF rallied over 80 pips throughout the day, breaking above the 1.2300 mark, to score a 1-week high of 1.2336 at the beginning of the NY session. However, the pair lost momentum during the American afternoon and retreated slightly.

EUR/CHF moves off 8-week lows

At time of writing, EUR/CHF is trading at the 1.2325 area, still up 0.5% on the day. EUR/CHF has been steadily edging higher over the last days after bottoming out at 1.2216 on Monday.

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Jun 27, 2013

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Session Recap: USD mixed into the month-end

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The dollar is mixed against the majors into the month- and quarter-end. The yen trades overall softer amid better sentiment, as fears of imminent QE tapering by the Fed eased after comments from Dudley and Lockhart on Thursday.

EUR/USD rose to the 1.3080 area, while USD/JPY claimed the 99.00 mark. Elsewhere the greenback trades flat versus the other majors and currencies linked to commodities. However, AUD/USD is among the worst performers given gold's weakness, which dropped below $1200 an ounce today.

Main Headlines in Europe:

Germany: Retail Sales rise 0.8% in February

UK: Annual Nationwide Housing Prices grow 1.9% in June

Flash: What can we expect from the EUR/USD – UBS and Commerzbank

UK: Index of Services rises 0.2% in April, as expected

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Jun 28, 2013

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