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Forex Flash: Recovery is in sight to support GBP - UBS

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Following the BoE Inflation Report, Governor Mervyn King started the Inflation Report presentation with "Today's projections are for growth to be a little stronger and inflation a little weaker than we expected three months ago. That is the first time I have been able to say that since before the financial crisis".

In this regard, the UBS analyst team comments that this supports their view that the UK is on a gradual recovery path. "It could also mean that King voted against further asset purchases at last week's policy meeting. The minutes next week will give further insights".

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May 15, 2013

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US markets posed for further gains on better data

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Better-than-expected data from the US CB Leading Indicator and the consumer sentiment gauged by the U. of Michigan index are bolstering today’s upside in the US equities, heading towards its fourth consecutive week of gains. The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index, is testing intraday highs in the vicinity of 84.35/40 and closing the week with strong gains.

DowJones is up 0.34%, following by the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, advancing 0.46% and 0.45%, respectively.

Bourses in Euroland climbed to multi-year highs on Friday, propped up by the upbeat US data, allaying concerns about the US recovery. The CAC40 advanced 0.56%, seconded by the FTSE100, 0.53% and the IBEX35, 0.47%.

Another volatile session for the single currency, navigating around the area of 1.2830/35 after dipping to session lows in sub 1.2800 levels. The ongoing USD rally has been punishing the EUR throughout the week, dragging the cross from Monday’s tops around 1.3030.

In the commodities’ front, the selling pressure continues to hammer the ounce of gold, down 1.67% at $1,364 while the barrel of WTI is up 0.67% at $95.80.

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May 17, 2013

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The Queen euro or the King Dollar? EUR/USD declines further

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - oh, who would ever wanted to fight the USD? Since the May 1st high of 1.3240, the EUR/USD fell around 440 pips in just two weeks to test the 1.2800 area in the Friday's session. The pair closed the day at 1.2833, 0.36% negative on the day.

In the short term, the perspective remains negative as the FXstreet.com trend index says the EUR/USD is slightly bearish in the 1-day chart. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic is Bullish.

"The strong bearish momentum seen in EUR/USD this week, has put the pair under risk of massive selloff as price is approaching a key support level, the neckline of a H&S figure around 1.2750," FXstreet.com Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik commented in a recent report. "Considering the fact that the year low is at 1.2744, and therefore stops below should be large, a break lower should be the kick start of another round of dollar demand against the Euro."

Among these lines, with the euro zone contracting for its sixth consecutive quarter and, of course, leaving the door open for another negative print in the Q2 GDP, it seems more and more plausible that those peaks in EUR/USD back in February will be remembered as the best moments of the cross in the present year.

“The continued depreciation of EUR/USD drove the DXY Index to reach an intraday high of near 84.10, almost matching the high reached in July 2012," Korber continued. "We recommend a risk-neutral short EUR basket trade for those who look to sidestep the periodic short-covering rallies in EUR/USD."

The FXstreet.com forecast poll showed a neutral bias for the EUR/USD in the week ahead as the next Friday's target is 1.2821 while the 1-month is 1.2898 and 1.867 as 3-month price.

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May 18, 2013

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Flash: AUD/USD a buy on prolonged dips below parity – Westpac

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD was knocked below 1.00 by bouts of risk aversion on several occasions in 2011-12.

The slide in AUD/USD despite surging global equities is very striking and removes one potential source of fuel for a sharp reversal. Indeed, since January 2011, the AUD/USD has traded a range from just under 0.94 to just short of 1.11, averaging above 1.03. Dips below 1.00 have proven quite brief in this time, such that the best strategy on breaks below parity has been to wait for the better levels to buy.

According to the Westpac Strategy Team, “This month’s fall however is different. Previous episodes since 2011 have generally been driven by bouts of risk aversion that were reversed almost as quickly as they occurred.” But of course in recent days we have seen multi-year highs (or records) in equity markets from the US to Japan, from Australia to Germany.

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May 20, 2013

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EUR/GBP turns flat on the day

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After failing to overcome the 0.8470 area, the euro weakened versus the pound and slipped to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the NY session.

EUR/GBP turned negative for the day and printed a low of 0.8444 before finding support. At time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8450, virtually unchanged since opening.

In terms of technical levels, on the downside next supports might be found at 0.8420 (low May 16) and 0.8400 (psychological level), while on the upside, resistances are seen at 0.8470 (daily highs) and 0.8499/0.8500 (high May 15/psychological level).

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May 20, 2013

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EUR/USD in highs around 1.2875/80

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The bloc currency is now picking up pace vs. the greenback, climbing to the area of 1.2875/80 to test session highs.

“A confluence of fundamental and technical signals suggests that downside risks are mounting for EUR/USD once again. Modest strength in EUR/USD looks a sell from here while a clear drop below the 1.28 area should see the EUR slide picks up momentum”, suggested the analysts at TD Securities.

The pair is advancing 0.26% at 1.2877, and a break above 1.2890 (high May 17) would expose 1.2930 (high May 16) ahead of 1.2943 (high May 15).

On the flip side, support levels align at 1.2796 (low May 17) followed by 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.4) and finally the psychological mark at 1.2700.

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May 20, 2013

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US: Redbook Index rose 0.5% MoM

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Redbook index rose 0.5% on a monthly basis and 2.4% YoY in the week ended on May 12, vs. previous prints at 0.7% and 2.8%, respectively.

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May 21, 2013

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Flash: USD profit taking ahead of Bernanke tomorrow - Societe Generale

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Alvin T. Tan, FX Strategist at Societe Generale notes that the market is taking profit on USD longs ahead of Chairman Bernanke's Congressional testimony tomorrow.

He adds that investors are hoping to get clarity from the Fed after hearing different views from various FOMC members in recent weeks. Further, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Evans stated last night that current Fed policy was appropriate, though noting that the economy appeared to be recovering well. He writes, “We doubt Bernanke will promulgate any major policy changes tomorrow. The recent slew of US economic data has been somewhat mixed, so the Fed is not going to change tune right now. But Bernanke will likely acknowledge the signs of improvement in the economy.”

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May 21, 2013

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US: MBA Mortgage Applications fell 9.8%

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Mortgage Bankers Association has informed that US citizens that applied for mortgage loans dropped 9.8% in the week ended on May 17, extending the negative momentum from the previous contraction of 7.3%.

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May 22, 2013

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IMF urges UK to increase efforts to spur growth

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The International Monetary Fund released a report on the UK economy on Wednesday in which it suggests that the country should introduce new measures to boost growth and speed up the slow recovery.

The Eurozone crisis was cited as the main threat: „Despite recent market calm, growth in the euro area is likely to be weak, and the re-emergence of market tensions cannot be ruled out, with the potential for continued spillovers to the UK from depressed exports, higher bank losses and funding costs.”

Therefore, the IMF recommends that the UK government takes several steps to boost growth, namely carry out planned capital investment, taking advantage of the low borrowing costs, change the composition of consolidation and introduce measures aimed at stimulating activity in the housing market.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton, who gave a press conference in London following the release of the report, also urged the UK government to increase its efforts to boost growth and suggested that the BoE should maintain interest rates low for as long as necessary.

“On a range of areas, the government should be more supportive than it has been or it plans to be.... and this effort should start now...” he said.

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May 22, 2013

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Flash: EUR/USD obstructed by bearish headwinds – UBS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses and note that there is a generally neutral-trending bias ahead.

Any upside for the EUR/USD will be limited as bearish conditions persist. Resistance is at 1.2967 and 1.3020. Support is at 1.2797, a break below would expose 1.2746 ahead of the critical 1.2662. In terms of the EUR/CHF, With bullish trend in place, there is no major resistance until the critical 1.2569. Support is at 1.2451, suggesting a bullish intraday view.

Moving to the EUR/GBP, “The sharp recovery since yesterday is approaching critical resistance at 0.8546. A break above which would prolong the recovery to 0.8590 – support is at 0.8441, ahead of 0.8389. Finally, concerning the EUR/JPY, the cross is trading within striking distance of first resistance at 132.77; a break above this would open 134.38 ahead of the more critical 138.49. Support is at 130.99 ahead of 129.92.

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May 22, 2013

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Wall Street closes lower on QE tapering concerns

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US stocks market closed negative on Wednesday as investors were concerned on Fed tapering QE. Bernanke's speech and FOMC minutes leave the sensation that the board is divided about what to do on bond buying. Wall Street finished the day into solid losses after retracing from fresh all time highs.

The Dow Jones declined 80.41 points or 0.52% to end the day at 15,307.17. The S&P 500 eased 13.81 points or 0.83% 1,655.35. And the Nasdaq Composite fell 38.82 points or 1.11% to 3,463.30.

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May 22, 2013

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US Apr Housing Price Index (MoM) rises 1.3% vs 0.9% (Mar)

Read more in Forex News

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May 23, 2013

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Flash: Markets seize hawkish tone after FOMC – Deutsche Bank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The FOMC minutes that came later was also viewed to be less dovish than the Fed commentary we've seen recently as the minutes noted that "a number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently stronger and sustained growth".

Markets clearly seized upon the hawkish tone from yesterday's Fed headlines even though the Chairman himself at the Q&A session made it clear that a step to reduce the flow of purchases will not be an automatic mechanistic process of ending the program but rather that any change in the flow of purchases would depend on incoming data and Fed's assessment of the outlook.

According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Whilst a slowing of QE is possible in a few months we can't help to think that the Fed could be forced to restart its QE in a beggar-thy-neighbor environment where central banks in most part of the developed world are still largely on an easing bias in order to steel a share of the global GDP. We think QE or derivations thereof will be around for many years to come.”

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May 23, 2013

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American equity markets follow world indices lower

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US stock market was spared a gruesome opening, unlike its Asian and European counterparts Thursday. While losses were sizable, the news was somewhat mitigated after upbeat US economic data. In the United States, Initial Jobless Claims (May 17) came in at 340K, against expectations of 345K, and compared with 360K. In addition, Continuing Jobless Claims (May 11) were reported at 2.912M, beating a projection of 3.000M.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ fell -0.97% as it settles in region of 3429.82, down -33.97 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in negative territory, operating at 1635.59, descending -18.72 points or -1.15% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has edged lower at the opening, trading in the zone of 15298.65, presently -0.06% after a movement of -8.52 points.

Sectors are nearly all lower at the opening, however the Consumer Cyclical and Financial sectors have distinguished themselves as the winners thus far, contracting -2.66% and -1.49% respectively. In other news, the price of crude is testing USD $92.42/bbl Thursday.

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May 23, 2013

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GBP/USD muted on Durable Goods orders higher than expectations but not good enough.

FXstreet.com (London) - Durable goods came in at 3.3% against consensus 1.5%. However, these numbers are not as good as the headline prints on average and GDP may be marked down on such results.

The pair have been oscillating around the 1.5100 figure in a 40 pip range throughout the morning session in London. Before the data, the pair are trading at the low testing 1.5080 support and didn’t react much at all on the data’s official release to the market. On the charts, the pair are still trading below the 61.8% correction and were resisted at 1.5130 and the possibility of extending the bearish move is valid today, with daily MA’s and momentum indicating a move to the downside.

On the otherhand, a break above 1.5130 , breaking the resistace line and a seriies of higher lows could keep the pair bid above 1.5100 for the time being. Next resistance is 1.5170. Near term support is at the pivot point 1.5080 before 1.5035 and key plays out at 1.4995. 1.4830 (March 2013 and 2009 Low).

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May 24, 2013

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Flash: EUR/GBP said 0.8591 was on the card - Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/GBP had advanced to the figure 0.8600 in London trade.

Commerzbank had expected this move and should there be a retest of this level with a daily close above above 0.8637 be made, their medium term forecast will change from neutral to bullish with the 0.8716 early February high being back on the map. Adding, only unexpected failure at the 0.8422 mid-May low will be bearish and target the 2013 support line at 0.8380 and the 2012-13 support line at 0.8336.

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May 24, 2013

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American equity markets cap off two-day weakness

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US stock market again opened lower Friday, concluding a late week weakness across global equities. In the United States, Durable Goods Orders (April) grew +3.3%, against projections of just +1.5%, and compared with -6.9% previously. In addition, Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (April) were reported at +1.3%, against expectations of +0.5%.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ fell -0.44% as it settles in region of 3444.45, down -15.18 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in negative territory, operating at 1643.24, descending -7.15 points or -0.43% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has edged lower at the opening, trading in the zone of 15256.03, presently -0.25% after a movement of -38.47 points.

Sectors are nearly all lower at the opening, however the Consumer Cyclical and Basic Materials sectors have distinguished themselves as the losers thus far, contracting -1.67% and -0.77% respectively. In other news, the price of crude is testing USD $93.11/bbl Friday.

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May 24, 2013

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Flash: BoJ appear unperturbed by rising JGB yields - BTMU

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that BoJ Board member Miyao also spoke overnight and didn’t appear overly concerned by rising JGB yields which have been driven by “higher yields in the US” and “domestic stock market gains”.

He continues to note that yields will face both upward and downward pressure going forward with BoJ easing to put downward pressure upon yields in Miyao’s opinion. Further, the BoJ will continue to monitor bond market developments carefully. Hardman believes that the weaker yen has helped to raise the value of Japan’s net foreign assets by 11.6% to JPY296.3 trillion in 2012, the largest annual increase since 2009. Additionally, he adds that Japan’s net portfolio investment and direct investment positions increased by JPY19.8 trillion and JPY15.3 trillion in 2012.

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May 28, 2013

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Flash: UK CPI to rise in time - Merrill Lynch and Bank of America

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at Merrill Lynch and Bank of America said that overall, they think there are various reasons to think that the unexpected weakness in UK CPI inflation in April will not persist over the medium term.

They continue to expect it to pick up to around 3% over the next few months; in part, as upward pressures from the depreciation in Sterling at the start of the year feed through More generally, after the BoE’s 6-3 vote again to leave QE on hold in May, it would seem prudent for them to wait and see if any potential Easter effects reverse again in May, before considering whether the recent CPI data might suggest a weaker medium-term inflation outlook compared with their May Inflation Report projections.

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May 28, 2013

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GBP/JPY extending losses

FXstreet.com (London) - The pound is continuing to be prodded with the ugly stick and wasn’t able to hold onto yesterdays performance to the crosses 154.60 high.

From the bear’s perspective, GBP/JPY is heading towards 152.00. The pair is testing 153.20 resistance in an overall broad bearish trend from the lows of 152.40. Momentum indicators offer impetus for the bears with hourly MA’s signalling towards lower levels. The dollar crosses are testing 1.5000 in Sterling and has completed an ascending triangle pattern in the Yen, neither look too well for the cross.

In a dollar positive environment, it appears that the pound is suffering with a backdrop of poor sentiment for the economy. With a light calendar for the rest of this week, support is 152.70 and 152.00 and 154.60 as resistance.

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May 29, 2013

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EU extends budget deficit reduction targets for six Member States

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to the economic guidelines for the 27 EU Member States, published by the European Commission on Wednesday, more emphasis should be put on measures aimed at spurring growth in the area, rather than on austerity.

“Now is the time to step up the fundamental economic reforms that will deliver growth and jobs, which our citizens, especially our young people, anxiously expect,” European Commission president José Manuel Barroso said at a press conference following the release of the national budgets review.

“This is the only way to address the two lasting legacies of this crisis – the serious loss of competitiveness in many of our Member States, and persistent unemployment, with all its social consequences.”

Brussels announced that six EU countries had been granted more time to bring down their budget deficits below the 3% of GDP limit. France, Spain, Poland, Slovenia will have two more years for implementing structural reforms while the Netherlands and Portugal were given one extra year.

At the press conference José Manuel Barroso said that France is expected to use the additional time to realize labor and pension reforms and deal with its economic competitiveness problems.

On the other hand, the European Commission recognized Italy's success in reducing its deficit below the 3% limit and eliminated it from the list of EU countries under the 'excessive deficit procedure' together with Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania. Barroso stressed however that the country should continue carrying out its austerity program, as its national debt still exceeds 120% of GDP.

EU leaders are expected to give the green light to the recommendations during the June summit.

Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH comments on European Commissions decisions: “Barroso wants countries to use the 'grace period' to take the structural reforms necessary to boost competitiveness. This of course is easier said than done. What needs to be done seems clear. We think that World Bank's Doing Business studies offer insight into low hanging fruit to bolster entrepreneurial activity, from easing the procedures and costs to start a business, register property, through closing businesses. The problem, at the risk of over simplifying, political in nature--the balance of power between rent seekers and profit-seekers.”

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May 29, 2013

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Flash: BoJ fails to create waves – Deutsche Bank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In Japan, 10yr JGB yields are up 4bp as they edge closer to the 1% mark – Kuroda's speech at a BoJ conference had little effect on markets with the Governor's key message being that no financial system is perfect in the face of global uncertainty.

In other BoJ-related headlines, there were some interesting comments PM Abe's economic adviser, Koichi Hamada, who was quoted as saying that Korea "shouldn't blame" the Japanese central bank if Korean growth slows due a weaker yen, but instead "they should demand the Korean central bank have a proper monetary policy". Hamada also urged Kuroda to ease monetary policy further should it be needed.

According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “The news comes as PM Abe unveiled a 5yr plan that details a number of structural reforms to achieve growth, but the issue of corporate tax rate cuts is reportedly undecided at this stage.” Attention then shifted to the BoJ's meeting with JGB-market participants later today, which may provided more detail on the central bank's upcoming market operations.

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May 29, 2013

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EUR/USD edges higher as US data disappoints

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - EUR/USD bounced from session lows and spiked to the 1.2980 area after data showed US GDP was revised slightly lower to 2.4% from 2.5% in Q1, while jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 354K last week.

Soft growth and employment data undermined expectations that the Fed could begin to taper its bond buying program and weighed on the greenback, which was staging a mild comeback ahead of the data.

EUR/USD rose nearly 30 pips within the last minutes, but has been capped by 1.2980 so far. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.2970 zone, where it is still up 0.2% on the day.

On the upside, immediate resistances are seen at 1.3000 (psychological level) and 1.3020 (200-day SMA), while supports are seen at 1.2930/20 (daily lows/100-hour SMA) and 1.2880 (May 28 low).

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May 30, 2013

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EU to lower the tax on financial transactions

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Reuters, the EU is considering considerably scaling back the financial transactions tax, in the light of the banking sector's and the UK's firm opposition towards the measure.

European officials plan to impose a small levy of 0.01% (compared with the previous proposition of 0.1%) initially only on share transactions. After assessing the first impact of the FTT it will be decided whether other types of products should be taxed as well.

Under the current proposition, the EU would raise only up to 3.5 billion euros a year, instead of 35 billion euros, as initially planned.

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May 30, 2013

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