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Japan’s GPIF can lower JGB weighting without selling bonds immediately

FXstreet.com (Łódź) - Takahiro Mitani, the head of Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund admitted on Wednesday that the fund´s JGB holdings were too big but that their weighting could be reduced to the recommended 52% level by allowing the bonds to mature instead of byselling them.

The projected 5.8 trillion yen in pension payouts in 2014 and 2015 would come from JGB redemptions and interest and would lower the domestic bonds' weighting.

“If we know that this will happen, then why do we need to shake up the market now by selling?” Takahiro Mitani said. He also expressed interest in buying inflation-linked JGBs as an inflation hedge as well as foreign bonds.

Japan's GPIF is the world's largest public pension fund and financial markets remain sensitive to its actions.

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Dec 04,2013

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USD&JPY deflates below 102.50

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The USD/JPY continues to retrace yesterday’s sharp ascent to the area of 103.40 amidst a context slightly biased towards the risk-off trade.

USD/JPY back below 103.00

The pair lacked the vigour in its run up to 2013 highs beyond 103.70 on Tuesday, sparking a correction lower while market participants keep digesting the recently announced stimulus package and the pessimistic comments by T.Sato, emphasizing his doubts regarding the capacity of the Japanese economy to achieve the 2% inflation target. “over the short-term, it will bethe events in the US and the euro-zone that will determine the near-term direction of the yen. The best (and most likely) outcome for yen sellers is

that the ECB remains cautious on further easing but equally leaves open the prospect in 2014 and an around consensus 180-200k print in NFP on Friday”, assessed Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research.

USD/JPY levels to watch

At the moment the pair is advancing 0.05% at 102.48 and a surpass of 103.38 (high Dec.3) would target 103.57 (high May 23) en route to 103.74 (2013 high May 22). On the downside, the immediate support is at 102.24 (low Dec.4) ahead of 102.17 (Tenkan Sen line) and then102.04 (MA10d).

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Dec 04,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD&JPY deflates below 102.50

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The USD/JPY continues to retrace yesterday’s sharp ascent to the area of 103.40 amidst a context slightly biased towards the risk-off trade.

USD/JPY back below 103.00

The pair lacked the vigour in its run up to 2013 highs beyond 103.70 on Tuesday, sparking a correction lower while market participants keep digesting the recently announced stimulus package and the pessimistic comments by T.Sato, emphasizing his doubts regarding the capacity of the Japanese economy to achieve the 2% inflation target. “over the short-term, it will bethe events in the US and the euro-zone that will determine the near-term direction of the yen. The best (and most likely) outcome for yen sellers is

that the ECB remains cautious on further easing but equally leaves open the prospect in 2014 and an around consensus 180-200k print in NFP on Friday”, assessed Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research.

USD/JPY levels to watch

At the moment the pair is advancing 0.05% at 102.48 and a surpass of 103.38 (high Dec.3) would target 103.57 (high May 23) en route to 103.74 (2013 high May 22). On the downside, the immediate support is at 102.24 (low Dec.4) ahead of 102.17 (Tenkan Sen line) and then102.04 (MA10d).

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Dec 04,2013

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European Commission fines eight banks for fixing rates

FXstreet.com (Łódź) - Following an investigation led since October 2011, the European Commission finally announced its decision on Wednesday to fine eight European and American financial institutions a total of €1.71B for “participating in cartels in the interest rate derivatives industry.”

Deutsche Bank was hit the hardest with a fine of €725M. Société Générale was fined €446M, RBS €391M, JPMorgan and Citigroup between €70-80M, UK broker RP Martin €247K. Barclays has escaped penalty as it revealed the existence of the cartel to the EC.

The EC led two separate investigations in the matter, one concerning interest rate derivatives denominated in the euro currency (in which four firms were involved). The other concerned interest rate derivatives denominated in Japanese yen (in which six firms were involved).

EU's competition commissioner, Joaquin Almunia commented following the EC's announcement: “What is shocking about the LIBOR and EURIBOR scandals is not only the manipulation of benchmarks, which is being tackled by financial regulators worldwide, but also the collusion between banks who are supposed to be competing with each other.”

“Today's decision sends a clear message that the Commission is determined to fight and sanction these cartels in the financial sector. Healthy competition and transparency are crucial for financial markets to work properly, at the service of the real economy rather than the interests of a few."

Almunia added that the European Commision was still investigating companies which declined to settle and that it might look into the foreign exchange market as well.

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Dec 04,2013

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Session Recap: USD firmer ahead of key data this week

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD traded a touch firmer versus major competitors Wednesday ahead of key economic data later this week, including the US GDP and the Government employment report, which investors will be closely watching for clues about when the Fed will start scaling back its monetary stimulus.

The EUR/USD traded little changed around 1.3585, while the USD/JPY was flat around 102.45 after peaking at 102.83. The GBP/USD fell to a weekly low of 1.6325 following disappointing UK services PMI. The AUD is among the worst performers across the board, losing 1.3% at 0.9020, weighed by weak Australian GDP figures and disappointing Chinese services PMI.

During the NY session watch for US ADP jobs report, trade deficit, new home sales and ISM services PMI.

Main Headlines in Europe:

Switzerland: Annual Industrial Production drops 2.3% in Q3

Germany: PMI Services rises to 55.7 in November

EMU: Services PMI slides to 51.2 in November

UK: Services PMI dips to 60 in November

EMU: Annual GDP falls 0.4% in Q3, as expected

EMU: Annual Retail Sales drop 0.1% in October

European Commission fines eight banks for fixing rates

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Dec 04,2013

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US: MBA Mortgage Applications fell 12.8%

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - Applications for mortgages dropped 12.8% in the week ended on November 29, according to MBA, down from -0.3% from the previous week.

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Dec 04,2013

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US ADP Employment Change increase to 215K in November

Read more in Forex News

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Dec 03,2013

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USD/CAD leaves rates unchanged

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CAD has been at the highest levels since Oct 2011 and these levels have been underpinned by the BoC but Us data has disappointed.

BoC is expected to deliver a Dovish bias and preserve the same tone as introduced in their last meeting. Meanwhile, ISM non-manufacturing did not extend its recent strong performance in Nov, coming in lower at 53.9 vs the 55.0 consensus. Oct new home sales to come in at 444K vs 432 consensus . Strategists at TD Securities sight further US data ahead and said, “Finally, we look for the Beige Book report to more closely reflect the Fed’s recent “glass half full tone””.

USD/CAD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.0512, the 50 DMA is 1.0424 and the 200 DMA is 1.0331. RSI (14) reads 54.69. Supports are ascending from 1.0516, 1.0559, 1.0590 and 1.0631. Spot is 1.0687 with resistances at 1.0673, 1.0721, 1.0745 and 1.0781.

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Dec 04,2013

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USD/CAD leaves rates unchanged

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CAD has been at the highest levels since Oct 2011 and these levels have been underpinned by the BoC but Us data has disappointed.

BoC is expected to deliver a Dovish bias and preserve the same tone as introduced in their last meeting. Meanwhile, ISM non-manufacturing did not extend its recent strong performance in Nov, coming in lower at 53.9 vs the 55.0 consensus. Oct new home sales to come in at 444K vs 432 consensus . Strategists at TD Securities sight further US data ahead and said, “Finally, we look for the Beige Book report to more closely reflect the Fed’s recent “glass half full tone””.

USD/CAD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.0512, the 50 DMA is 1.0424 and the 200 DMA is 1.0331. RSI (14) reads 54.69. Supports are ascending from 1.0516, 1.0559, 1.0590 and 1.0631. Spot is 1.0687 with resistances at 1.0673, 1.0721, 1.0745 and 1.0781.

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Dec 04,2013

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Spanish 3-year bond yield ticks up at auction

FXstreet.com (Łódź) - The Spanish Tesoro Público held a debt auction on Thursday during which it sold 3- and 5-year bonds.

1,275 million euros of 3-year bonds were auctioned at an average yield of 2.182%, compared with 2.101% seen at the previous auction. 2,249 million euros worth of 5-year bonds, were sold at an average yield of 2.722% down from the previous 2.875%.

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Dec 05,2013

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Flash: Draghi able to pull a rabbit from his EUR cap? - Societe Generale

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale wonders whether the ECB can come up with a (scrawny?) rabbit to stop the Euro’s advance, or ‘something to increase liquidity’?.

Key Quotes

“Inability to successfully ease monetary policy is something the ECB shares with Japan’s experience over recent years.

“The short-tem risk is that the Euro pushes higher. The NOK has fallen sharply this year vs most currencies (-9.5% vs UD, -12.75% vs EUR), to the joy of the government.”

“Some people look for a hint of a rate cut in Q1, or for the rate path to be moved down further, hikes pushed deeper into the future.”

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Dec 05,2013

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AUD/USD settles at mid-range ahead of US data

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD failed to extend its recovery beyond the 0.9055 area and pulled back instead, falling into the red during the European session.

Disappointing Australian trade balance didn't help the Aussie, which has been under heavy pressure for over a month as the RBA has expressed its discomfort with a strong currency. The AUD/USD dipped below 0.9000 yesterday and hit a 3-month low of 0.8997 before bouncing. However, the recovery didn't last as the former support area at 0.9055 offered resistance.

AUD/USD technical levels

At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9030 zone, virtually unchanged since opening ahead of the next string of US data, including the GDP revision. In terms of technical levels, if the AUD/USD breaks decisively below 0.9000/0.8997, next supports are seen at 0.8971 (Sep 3 low) and 0.8923 (Sep 2 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 0.9055 (daily high) and 0.9100 where the 10-day SMA reinforces the psychological level.

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Dec 05,2013

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EUR/USD erases gains ahead of ECB

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After hitting a fresh 1-month high Thursday, the EUR/USD came under pressure and completely erased intraday gains as investors gear up for the European Central Bank policy decision.

EUR/USD dips below 1.3600

The EUR/USD found resistance at 1.3638 and slid all the way back to opening levels amid comments about delays to Greek next tranche of loans. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3590 zone, where it is virtually unchanged on the day ahead of the ECB decision and a raft of US data, including the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP. "The Central Bank is expected to remain on hold today after cutting rates last month. Consensus suggests Mr. Draghi will likely maintain its dovish tone, and doors open for further stimulus if required", said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com.

EUR/USD technical levels

"Technically, the EUR/USD holds a positive tone despite the range", says Bednarik. As for technical levels, the EUR/USD could find next resistances at 1.3640 (daily high) and 1.3700 (psychological level) ahead of 1.3739 (Oct 31 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.3579 (daily low and 100-hour SMA) and 1.3524 (Dec 3 low).

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Dec 05,2013

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GBP/USD steady as BoE stands pat

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD remained little changed near daily lows after the Bank of England decided to keep its key rate and the size of the bond buying program unchanged in December.

At today's meeting, the BoE decided to leave its key lending rate at 0.5% and the QE total at £375 billion. The GBP/USD showed little reaction as the decision was widely anticipated and continued to trade within today's range, not far from its daily trough of 1.6334. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6345 area, recording a 0.2% loss on the day.

GBP/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, the GBP/USD could find immediate supports at 1.6325 (Dec 4 low) and 1.6300 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.6400 (psychological level) and 1.6441 (2013 high Dec 3).

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Dec 05,2013

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GBP/JPY holds below 167.00 after BoE

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/JPY was barely affected by the BoE decision to keep its monetary unchanged with the main rate at 0.5% and the QE at £375 billion.

GBP/JPY contained by 200-hour SMA

The GBP/JPY continued to trade below 167.00 after the announcement near daily lows at the 166.80 zone, recording a 0.5% decline on the day, having hit a low of 166.61 earlier on the day where the 200-hour SMA helped to contain the drop.

GBP/JPY technical levels

In terms of technical levels, the GBP/JPY could found immediate supports at 166.61 (daily low) and 166.47 (10-day SMA) ahead of 166.00 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 167.00 (psychological level) and 167.75 (daily high).

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Dec 05,2013

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UK: Consumer Inflation Expectations rise 3.6%

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - UK consumers expect the price of goods and services to grow by 3.6% during the next 12 months, compared with the previous forecast of +3.2%, the BoE informed on Friday.

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Dec 06,2013

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EUR/USD range trading ahead of NFPs

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/USD has settled down from ECB led movement and is now range trading between 1.3674-50, and presently at 1.3672.

EUR/USD settles down into range following ECB comments

The ECB’s Nowotny and Coeure caused a stir in EUR/USD this morning, with Nowotny saying that Eurozone inflation expectations were stable, with no need for immediate action, and the recession is over, while Coeure added that there is no strong case for more fiscal centralization beyond banking supervision. However, movement was short lived, with spot losing momentum and settling into a range prior to today’s NFPs.

What does EUR/USD sentiment look like?

The hourly OB/OS Index is neutral while the FXstreet.com Trend Index is slightly bullish. The RSI reads 61 at the moment and the ADX is at 27. Presently the 200-period SMA is at 1.3588 and sloping higher while the exponential average closing price for the last 20 days is neutral at 1.3558.

What are today’s key levels?

Matt Bacon-Hall of FXBeat comments that resistance for the pair can be seen at “1.3770 Model buy stops commence, 1.3760 Prop offers, 1.3720 buy stops commence for prop accounts, & 1.3680-00 corporate offers”, and support below at “1.3590-00 Corporate bids, 1.3520-30 Macro bids, 1.3490 Sell stops commence, 1.3450-60 option bids. Today’s central pivot point is at 1.3630, with support below at 1.3582 (S1), 1.3495 (S2) and 1.3447 (S3) and resistance above at 1.3717 (R1), 1.3765 (R2) and 1.3852 (R3). The range between 1.3658-3692 is showing several technical levels as clustering there.

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Dec 06,2013

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AUD/USD treads water ahead of NFP

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD managed to recover ground and erased intraday losses in quiet trade ahead of the US NFP report.

The AUD/USD bounced from daily lows and advanced toward the 0.9065 area during the European session although momentum was lacking as investors refrain from taking bug positions ahead of the US Government employment report. Expectations point for a 180K jobs gain in November following the 204K printed in October.

The AUD/USD is staging a mild recovery from a 3-month low of 0.8997 scored Wednesday but it remains vulnerable as the RBA has expressed its discomfort with a strong currency.

AUD/USD technical levels

At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9060 area, virtually unchanged since opening. As for technical levels, the AUD/USD could find immediate resistances at 0.9076 (Dec 5 high) and 0.9092 (200-hour SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.9035 (daily low) and the 0.9000/0.8997 area (psychological level/Dec 4 low).

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Dec 06,2013

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Flash: GBP/USD near term uptrend eroded - Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank notes that GBP/USD has eroded its near term trend line support at 1.6344, and downside risks are growing.

Key Quotes

“Key nearby support are the previous highs seen at 1.6255/59 and while above here we are unable to rule out scope for a move to 1.6634/1.6735. Currently intraday charts are giving conflicting signals but we continue to favour the downside.”

“Key near term support is the 1.6259/55 previous highs from October, as failure here will cast attention back to the 5 month uptrend at 1.6064. A close below here will re-target the 1.5855 November low.”

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Dec 06,2013

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Flash: GBP/USD near term uptrend eroded - Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY entered in a consolidative phase during the European session as the 200-hour SMA halted the advance.

As investors gear up for the US nonfarm payrolls with consensus pointing for a 180K gain, the USD/JPY settled in a tight range in the lower 102's, where it has spent the last hours. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.10 area, recording a 0.3% gain on the day, having peaked at 102.21.

USD/JPY technical outlook

From a technical perspective, Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com noted "The outlook is still bearish, for 100.50 major support. Only a violation of 102.82 high will signal a reversal of the slide from 103.36 peak".

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Dec 06,2013

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USD/JPY settles in a range

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY entered in a consolidative phase during the European session as the 200-hour SMA halted the advance.

As investors gear up for the US nonfarm payrolls with consensus pointing for a 180K gain, the USD/JPY settled in a tight range in the lower 102's, where it has spent the last hours. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.10 area, recording a 0.3% gain on the day, having peaked at 102.21.

USD/JPY technical outlook

From a technical perspective, Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com noted "The outlook is still bearish, for 100.50 major support. Only a violation of 102.82 high will signal a reversal of the slide from 103.36 peak".

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Dec 06,2013

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Flash: USD/JPY eyes on annual high at 103.74 - UOB Group

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group believes that USD/JPY risk is still clearly on the upside towards the year’s high at 103.74.

Key Quotes

“The key support highlighted last week at 101.30 is still intact and despite the volatile trading, the risk is still clearly on the upside.”

“Continue to expect a move towards the year’s high at 103.74. The key support has edged up to 101.60 but 102.20 is likely strong enough to hold any short-term pullback.”

Supports: 102.20, 101.60. Resistants: 103.38, 103.74

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Dec 09,2013

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GBP/USD, consolidated 1.6370/90 and awaiting Carney

FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD is holding onto territory in the higher end of the 1.63 handle after opening this weeks session with a gap on the charts towards 1.6400.

GBP/USD is consolidated currently between 1.6370 and 1.6390 without there being any data releases. However, while the dollar is starting on a softer tone this week, the pair can take advantage of that while waiting for a speech to be made by BoE Governor Carney coming up later on today. This speech is particularly of interest because it this will be his first full speech since the BoE improved its growth outlook in the November inflation report. There are a number of Fed speakers today as well this afternoon so this may also have some effect on the dollar.

GBP/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.6203, the 50 DMA is 1.6129 and the 200 DMA is 1.5570. RSI (14) reads 59.32. Supports are ascending from 1.6255, 1.6277, 1.6294, 1.6318, 1.6338. Spot is currently 1.6374 while resistances are 1.6403, 1.6443 and 1.6475.

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Dec 09,2013

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Flash: EUR/USD, bullet proof bull trend – TDS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - A strategist team at TD Securities noted that nothing seems to be able to dent the bull trend in EUR/USD at the moment.

Key Quotes:

“Friday’s strong US jobs number (improving the odds of an earlier QE taper), and this morning’s weak German industrial production number would normally weigh heavily on the pair, but it seems the end of year seasonal trend higher continues to be the dominating force”.

“For the rest of the week, central bank speakers will be the fundamental focus for markets, and for EUR/USD in the near term Fed speakers today and Draghi tomorrow offer the biggest potential to inspire a decent move”.

“EUR/USD is currently consolidating in the resistance zone near 1.3700/20 and a move above here would look to the October high of 1.3829. A pullback would likely look toward the bottom of the November bull channel in the mid to upper 1.35 area”.

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Dec 09,2013

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EUR/USD steadies above 1.3700

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After printing a fresh 6-week high during the European session, the EUR/USD entered in a consolidative phase, with the negative German IP figures going virtually unnoticed.

The EUR/USD broke above the 1.3700 mark Monday and climbed to its highest level since Oct 31 at 1.3728 during the European session. However, the pair lost momentum to extend gains and pulled back slightly, although it has managed to hold above the psychological level, now turned into support.

EUR/USD technical levels

At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3720 zone, recording a 0.1% daily gain, its fifth in a row. As for technical levels, immediate resistances line up at 1.3728 (daily high) and 1.3739 (Oct 31 high) ahead of 1.3785 (Oct 30 high). On the downside, supports are seen at 1.3700 (psychological level) and 1.3615 (10-day SMA).

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Dec 09,2013

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