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AUD/USD sliding below pivot; just a consolidation above 94.00?

FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD has lost its form in the dollars consolidation of losses and finds lows below the 94.00 handle.

AUDUSD has printed a low of 0.9377 and has lost all of its gains in the same week as we come to a close for this week’s session. The pair has been subdued by EUR/AUD demand in European markets as the cross inched higher and markets are also looking towards shorting AUD/NZD as a favoured play which is weighing on the Aussie as well. The pair needs to hold onto the 94.00 handle if it is still to become a convincing long play. Otherwise, caution would set in on failures around here as the market keeps a close eye on data that would be influencing plans on timings for US tapering.

AUD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is .9188, the 50 DMA is .9142 and the 200 DMA is .9864. RSI (14) reads 30.69. Supports are ascending from .9271 .9285 and .9330. Spot is currently .9396 while resistances are at .9439, .9503, .9530, .9574 and .9581.

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Sep 20,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD sliding below pivot; just a consolidation above 94.00?

FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD has lost its form in the dollars consolidation of losses and finds lows below the 94.00 handle.

AUDUSD has printed a low of 0.9377 and has lost all of its gains in the same week as we come to a close for this week’s session. The pair has been subdued by EUR/AUD demand in European markets as the cross inched higher and markets are also looking towards shorting AUD/NZD as a favoured play which is weighing on the Aussie as well. The pair needs to hold onto the 94.00 handle if it is still to become a convincing long play. Otherwise, caution would set in on failures around here as the market keeps a close eye on data that would be influencing plans on timings for US tapering.

AUD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is .9188, the 50 DMA is .9142 and the 200 DMA is .9864. RSI (14) reads 30.69. Supports are ascending from .9271 .9285 and .9330. Spot is currently .9396 while resistances are at .9439, .9503, .9530, .9574 and .9581.

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Sep 20,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Fitch cuts Croatia to Junk and Malta to A ratings

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Fitch Ratings has downgraded Croatia sovereign debt to BB+ from BBB- according to a press release published by the agency. Fitch also cut Malta to 'A' from 'A+'. Both with stable outlook.

According to Fitch, "Croatia's fiscal outlook has deteriorated since Fitch's previous sovereign rating review in November 2012. The agency has revised up its forecast for this year's general government deficit to 4.7% in 2013 from 3.9%, while general government debt/GDP is now expected to peak at 66% of GDP in 2016, up from our previous forecast of 62%."

Croatian real GDP growth has significantly underperformed 'BBB' and 'BB' medians: "The economy has been mired in recession since 2009, contracting by a cumulative 11%, and unemployment far exceeds rating peers. Q213 national accounts suggest that the rate of contraction is declining, but Fitch now expects the economy to contract by a further 0.9% in 2013, in contrast to our previous expectation of growth of 0.3%."

On the Malta decision, "there has been significant fiscal slippage," says Fitch. "Malta's general government deficit was 3.3% of GDP in 2012, well above both the government's target (2.2%) and Fitch's September 2012 forecast (2.6% of GDP). This slippage has carried over to 2013, when Fitch forecasts a deficit of 3.6% of GDP, compared with 2.7% in the original 2013 budget."

"Public debt dynamics are worsening," continues Fitch. The agency "now forecasts that general government gross debt (GGGD) will peak at 74% of GDP in 2014-15 (two years later than we previously expected) and decline only marginally in the medium term, remaining above 73pp of GDP by 2020. A debt ratio that is higher for longer reduces the fiscal space to absorb future adverse shocks."

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Sep 20,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD struggles to make ground with central banks in a battle of the doves

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The euro showed some falls on weaker than expected German sentiment and dovish European Central Bank comments. But in a battle of the doves, any gains to be made by the dollar against the common currency have been sandbagged by Fed support of continuing ultra-loose policy.

The LFO business climate index, based on a monthly survey of 7,000 firms, indicated that German sentiment rose to 107.7 in September, missing the consensus forecast of 108.2. The figure compared with a revised reading of 107.6 in August.

The number represents a 17-month high, but given the recent strong momentum of German macro data, it still disappointed.

While the miss on consensus was minor, markets have been particularly sensitive following comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi yesterday that the ECB would be prepared to maintain cheap borrowing rates through its long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) mechanism in order to hold down money market rates.

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny reinforced Draghi’s stance today by saying that any European growth remained too fragile for the central bank to remove its support.

EUR/USD is currently trading at USD1.3487, barely dipping below its USD1.3492 opening price.

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Sep 24,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD hesitant around 1.0300

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - As most pairs in the FX market, the USD/CAD has spent most of the day in a range as investors seem hesitant regarding what side to take regarding the USD.

USD/CAD stuck in a range

USD/CAD fell to a session low of 1.0268 at the beginning of the American session but quickly bounced back above the 1.0300 mark although it couldn’t sustain either the bullish momentum and settled around mid-range. From a wider perspective, the pair remains stuck in a range constrained by 1.0268 on the downside and 1.0310 on the upside.

USD/CAD technical levels

At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0295 zone, 0.1% above its opening price. In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.0310 (daily high) and 1.0317 (Sep 18 high) ahead of 1.0348 (100-day SMA). On the downside, supports are seen at 1.0268 (daily low) and 1.0215 (200-day SMA).

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Sep 24,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD dips back below 1.0300

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD dropped to fresh lows during the New York session as the greenback came under renewed pressure across the board.

After failing to overcome the 1.0320 level, USD/CAD spent a few hours in a tight range but failed to hold above the 1.0300 psychological level and dropped to fresh daily lows in recent dealings. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0295 area, having found support at the 100-hour SMA at 1.0285.

USD/CAD levels to watch

On the downside, supports could be found at 1.0285 (100-hour SMA) and 1.0270 (Sep 24 low)., while on the upside, if USD/CAD manages to overcome the 1.0320/27 area (daily highs/38.2% Fib of 1.0560/1.0182), next resistances are seen at 1.0350 (100-day SMA) and 1.0370 (50% Fibo level).

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Sep 26,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD dips back below 1.0300

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD dropped to fresh lows during the New York session as the greenback came under renewed pressure across the board.

After failing to overcome the 1.0320 level, USD/CAD spent a few hours in a tight range but failed to hold above the 1.0300 psychological level and dropped to fresh daily lows in recent dealings. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0295 area, having found support at the 100-hour SMA at 1.0285.

USD/CAD levels to watch

On the downside, supports could be found at 1.0285 (100-hour SMA) and 1.0270 (Sep 24 low)., while on the upside, if USD/CAD manages to overcome the 1.0320/27 area (daily highs/38.2% Fib of 1.0560/1.0182), next resistances are seen at 1.0350 (100-day SMA) and 1.0370 (50% Fibo level).

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Sep 26,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD, 0.9400 still a wishful thinking

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Aussie dollar managed to retraced the whole intraday decline on Wednesday, lifting the AUD/USD from troughs around 0.9340 to the vicinity of 0.9390, losing some traction afterwards.

AUD/USD keeps hinging on risk trends

Extremely light docket in the Australian economy prompted investors to look towards the US economy for drivers this week, as key data and significant Fedspeak would be in the limelight. In the opinion of Robert Rennie, Strategist at Westpac, “My best guess this week is that AUD will still correct lower. It's possible we could see a move to 0.9250/0.9280 if concerns about the "US debt ceiling and budget showdown" rise. However, if anybody listened to my views last week and did sell AUD above 0.95, I would be advising buying them back on dips towards that 0.9280 level. Let's see what happens when we get there”.

AUD/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is down 0.17% at 0.9375 with the next support at 0.9343 (low Sep.23) and then 0.9336 (low Sep.18). On the flip side, a breakout of 0.9394 (high Sep.25) would clear the way to 0.9428 (high Sep.24) and finally 0.9459 (high Sep.20).

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Sep 26,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: A third of the market fooled - BBH

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at BBH note that the market is still wrestling with the Fed's decision not to taper.

Key Quotes:

“Investors continue to wrestle with the implications of the Federal Reserve's decision last week not to taper”.

“What is being generally overlooked is that a full third of the market, according to various polls, did not expect the Fed to taper. Many journalists were surprised, and this seems to be colouring their coverage. For example, just yesterday, a Financial Times reporters wrote, "To a man, Wall Street's best strategists were caught out by the Federal Reserve's decision not to curb its emergency asset buying." Substitute strategists with reporters and the assessment may be fairer”.

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Sep 26,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY a mixed bag; 99.00 a challenge

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY had managed a breach of the 99.00 handle, on three attempts but has failed to offer any conviction and subsequent of less than impressive Us data the pair are struggling to hang in there.

TD Securities explained that fresh reports that the Abe government is considering a corporate tax cut in the near future to help balance the much telegraphed sales tax increase on the horizon saw the JPY sell off sharply across the board early in the overnight session. “The Nikkei was boosted by over 1% on the news, and the index’s strong, positive correlation with USD/JPY is likely a strong force behind the pressure on the currency. But the broadly consolidative tone of markets has seen most of that move retrace in recent hours. Reports of new government policies have grown very common now and we may need to see a hard announcement before we see USD/JPY levels outside of the range of the past two months (97.50/100)”. From the calendar, US GDP came in slightly lower than anticipated by markets, at 2.5% vs 2.6% while initial jobless claims improved in terms of the consensus at 305K against 325K expected.

USD/JPY Levels

The 20 DMA is 99.20, the 50 DMA is 98.58 and the 200 DMA is 96.25. RSI (14) 57.12. Supports are ascending from 97.98, 98.19 ,98.27 and 98.51. spot is currently 98.94 while resistances are 99.18, 99.36, 99.67 and 99.99.

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Sep 26,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Markets in red on debt ceiling jitters

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The ongoing debate surrounding the US debt ceiling and the lack of solid responses, if any, by the US politicians are weighing on sentiment at the end of the trading week, as October 1st deadline is looming. The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, is bouncing off session lows, giving away weekly gains around 80.20/15. As of writing, DowJones is retreating 0.44%, followed by the S&P500, 0.40% and the Nasdaq, 0.08%.

Across the pond, Italian political effervescence dragged the main indices lower, with the FTSE100 dropping 0.81%, ahead of the IBEX35, 0.47% and the DAX, 0.03%. The shared currency is netting a flat week around 1.3520, retracing earlier gains after testing post-FOMC peaks around 1.3560/65.

Commodities are trading in a mixed tone, with the ounce troy of gold gaining 1.06% at $1,338 and the barrel of WTI losing 0.18% at $102.84.

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Sep 27,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD doji signifying easing of bear trend



FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CAD has printed a high of 1.0319 and a low of 1.0273 whilst the pair is down -0.22% and currently trading at 1.0284.

Research teams at TD Securities explained that USD/CADs short-term technical performance looks a little wanting. The rebound in spot seen over the course of last week is showing signs of rolling over as the 38.2% retracement of the 1.0560/1.0185 move lower caps USD gains for the moment. The Short-term oscillator studies are tracking lower, they said, suggesting that the market may put a little more pressure on the mid/upper 1.02 support area in the next day or so.

USD/CAD Levels

TD Securities strategists said, intraday, look for resistance at 1.0340/50. After some relatively positive weekly signals (a large bull hammer two weeks ago and a small doji candle last week which suggest to us that broader bear pressure on USD/CAD is easing), early price action so far this week has been rather soft in funds. Last weeks 1.0341 high represents near-term resistance for the market but we would not be able to get really constructive on the broader outlook for the USD unless the market traded through the low 1.04 area at the moment.





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Sep 30,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD settles below 1.3550



FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The rally of the euro against the dollar stalled at the 1.3555 zone during the New York session as investors refrain from taking big positions in an uncertain environment.

On one hand, there is political turmoil in Italy after Berlusconi's decision to withdraw his party's support from the coalition government over the weekend. On the other hand, the US is one inch away from a fiscal shutdown. Lawmakers have until midnight to pass an emergency measure to keep the federal government running starting Tuesday, the beginning of the 2014 fiscal year.

EUR/USD failed to break above the 1.3555 zone and entered in a consolidation phase that has extended over the last hours. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3530 area, still 0.3% above its opening price.

EUR/USD technical outlook

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes that short term technical readings maintain a bullish tone, "all of which leaves little room to the downside despite the ongoing risk aversion sentiment among investors".

Bednarik locates immediate resistances at 1.3570 and 1.3615, while she sees supports at 1.3490, 1.3460 and 1.3420.





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Sep 30,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY - Abe hikes sales tax and announces stimulus, but is it enough?



FXstreet.com (London) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced that the government will raise the national sales tax to 8 percent in April from 5 percent, with the tax hike being softened by a further government stimulus.

The announcement has driven the USD/JPY down to JPY97.7405, down 0.57 percent so far.

The Bank of Japan predicts that the hike will draw in an additional JPY8 trillion in tax receipts. However, the Japanese PM has announced that the hike will coincide with a JPY5 trillion stimulus package.

The tax hike is part of Abes attempts to address the countrys huge budget deficit, running at 10 percent of GDP.

In contrast with the trend in most of the major economies, where fiscal contraction policies have gone hand-in-hand with monetary expansion, Japan has pursued a policy of ultra-loose monetary policy with aggressive government stimulus programmes as the country tries to escape deflationary pressures.

With an economy where the Japanese consumer just will not spend, a sales tax hike is a risky manoeuvre. And even if Abes policies to generate the predicted revenues, at the current rate they would quickly be consumed by the countrys out of control government spending.



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Oct 01,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD still wavering around 1.3550



FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD continues to waver above 1.3500 Tuesday as the kneejerk reaction of reaction to the US shutdown faded, giving the greenback some respite.

Risk aversion receded a tad following a positive opening in Wall Street and in-line-with-expectations Markit manufacturing PMI. EUR/USD is currently trading at the 1.3550 area, up 0.2% on the day, as the most recent correction was contained by the 1.3535 zone.

EUR/USD technical outlook

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com, notes that the pair holds a pretty positive tone with the 20-hour SMA offering short term support around 1.3535. However, Bednarik notes that the EUR/USD presents a more neutral stance in 4-hour charts. "The upside is favored towards 1.3610/20 area in the short term, and eyeing 1.3710 for the upcoming sessions", the analyst said.



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Oct 01,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD still wavering around 1.3550



FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD continues to waver above 1.3500 Tuesday as the kneejerk reaction of reaction to the US shutdown faded, giving the greenback some respite.

Risk aversion receded a tad following a positive opening in Wall Street and in-line-with-expectations Markit manufacturing PMI. EUR/USD is currently trading at the 1.3550 area, up 0.2% on the day, as the most recent correction was contained by the 1.3535 zone.

EUR/USD technical outlook

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com, notes that the pair holds a pretty positive tone with the 20-hour SMA offering short term support around 1.3535. However, Bednarik notes that the EUR/USD presents a more neutral stance in 4-hour charts. "The upside is favored towards 1.3610/20 area in the short term, and eyeing 1.3710 for the upcoming sessions", the analyst said.



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Oct 01,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: ISM New York Index down to 53.6 in September



FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The ISM New York Index fell to 53.6 in September, from 60.5 in October, according to data released by NAPM-New York.



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Oct 02,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD deflates to 1.6230



FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The bullish momentum around the sterling is losing steam at the moment, with the GBP/USD hovering over 1.6230/25 after hitting fresh multi-month highs around 1.6260.

GBP/USD following risk

The 1.6250/60 band seems to be quite a tough barrier for the pair so far, proved by the recent unsuccessful attempts to follow through it despite the favourable risk-on atmosphere. The pair managed to comfortably leave the poor result from the Construction PMI in the UK behind, missing estimates and coming in lower than the Augusts reading. As noted of late, recent gains are now stretched, despite the more positive stance in weekly charts. Any slippage below 1.6100 should now raise some concern, though the risk of unraveling recent gains would only develop on a close below the interim 1.5955 of late September, suggested Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ.

GBP/USD relevant levels

As of writing, the pair is up 0.23% at 1.6233 with the next resistance at 1.6300 (psychological level) followed by 1.6380 (2013 high Jan.2) and then 1.6400 (psychological level). On the flip side, a break below 1.6162 (low Oct.2) would expose 1.6100 (low Sep.30) and finally 1.6092 (MA10d).




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Oct 02,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD consolidates below 1.3600



FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The shared currency keeps the upper band of todays range, with the EUR/USD meandering around 1.3580/1.3600.

EUR/USD boosted by Italy, ECB

The single currency found extra oxygen after Italian PM Enrico Letta won the confidence vote in the Senate (235-70), leaving behind the political unease after last weekends events. Recall that Il Cavaliere Silvio Berlusconi ordered PdLs parliamentary members to withdraw their support to the Government, triggering once again another political crisis in the peninsula. Further impulse came in after the ECB meeting and press conference by President Mario Draghi. A repetition of past comments and announcements disappointed investors, who were expecting a dovish tone.

EUR/USD relevant levels

The pair is now advancing 0.44% at 1.3587 with the next resistance at 1.3660 (high Feb.4) followed by 1.3711 (2013 high Feb.1) and finally 1.3800 (psychological level). On the downside, a break below 1.3505 (low Oct.2) would aim for 1.3500 (psychological level) and then 1.3467 (low Sep.30)




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Oct 02,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD muted on US Claims



FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The euro remained mostly indifferent after the Initial Claims came in below expectations, with the EUR/USD hovering over 1.3600 the figure.

EUR/USD indifferent after data

The pair is trading unchanged on Thursday, after Initial Claims dropped to 308K in the week ended on September 27th, surpassing estimates at 313K albeit a tad higher than the previous week print at 308K. Next on tap will be the ISM Non manufacturing, with prior estimates pointing to a decrease to 57.4 during September.

EUR/USD key levels

The pair is now advancing 0.19% at 1.3604 with the next resistance at 1.3623 (high Oct.3) followed by 1.3660 (high Feb.4) and then 1.3711 (2013 high Feb.1). On the downside, a break below 1.3578 (low Oct.3) would clear the way to 1.3526 (MA10d) and finally 1.3505 (low Oct.2).



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Oct 03,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY lower on weaker US labor data excluding furloughed workers


FXstreet.com (Athens) The USD/JPY is heading lower after the US initial jobless claims release, proved to be slightly weaker than expected but it is logically much worse as it doesnt reflect the more than 800.000 workers furloughed due to governments shutdown.

USD/JPY under pressure as initial jobless claims become more baffling than ever

The USD/JPY was hovering around 97.65 before the release of the US labor data, but after the data released across the board at a slightly weaker level, the cross started to move downwards, as the greenback got under renewed pressure across the board. We could consider that the real fact that the American dollar got under pressure, dragging down the pair almost 10 pips nearly 97.55 area, was not that the initial jobless claims increased by 1000 to a seasonally adjusted 308.000 in the week ended as of the 28th September. The careful reader should see behind the curtains; the figure released by the Labor Department has a lot of drawbacks.

After California, Nevada its now the 800,000 not included in data

First of all, it doesnt conclude the more than 800.000 workers furloughed due to governments shutdown. Whats more, Federal furloughs won't show up in forthcoming claims data, according to the US Department of Labor. Finally, we should take for granted that anyhow the data is distorted enough not only because does not include the furloughed workers but also due to the fact that the 4-week moving average of claims includes the weeks when California and Nevada underreported claims due to the computer system upgrades. On the other hand, Fed officials would well see the 800,000 furloughed workers more as a temporary layoff, therefore it will not influence their decision on the debt-ceiling.

Technical Outlook on the USD/JPY

Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank, suggests that with the pair is under considerable downside pressure. Having punctured the 98.00 level convincingly, the next support of consequence is only expected towards the 200-day MA (96.58). Structurally, the USD is expected to remain laden on the back of the fiscal impasse while any deterioration in global risk appetite levels may also weigh on the JPY-crosses.




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Oct 03,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY extends decline below 97.30


FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar is getting hurt today's session following the weaker than expected jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing reports. Against the Japan Yen, the Greenback is now trading around 97.30.

After declining around 55 pips from 97.85 to break below 97.50, the USD/JPY has reached intra-day lows around 97.25. Currently the pair is pricing at 97.32, almost flat on the day.

Short term perspective is slightly bearish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 1-hour chart. Indicators such as CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic and MACD are neutral.

USD/JPY Technical Bias

According to FXstreet.com Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik, "USD/JPY attempt to recovery halted around 97.80, with the pair turning back south early US session." Support levels are at 97.20, 96.80 and 96.40. Resistance levels are at 98.00, 98.40 and 98.80.




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Oct 03,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: The USD/JPY looking for slide to 200 day ma - Commerzbank



FXstreet.com (Athens) Karen Jones, Head Technical Analyst at Commerzbank suggests that the USD/JPY hasnt changed.

Key Quotes

The market remains under pressure and is on course for the 200 day ma at 96.63, the August low at 95.80 and the 95.58 5 month support line. This is expected to hold the downside and provoke reversal.

The short term resistance line offers initial resistance at 98.32 ahead of
the 100.62 September high then 101.54/60 July high and the Fibonacci retracement.




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Oct 04,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada Exports up to $39.77B in August from $39.05B



Read more in Forex News




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Oct 08,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY ready to retest 132.00 area



FXstreet.com (Athens) The EUR/JPY has been constantly trading upwards since the kick-off of the early trading session in Asian apart from a couple of hours after the dismal release of the German factory data and now flirting again with 132.00 zone

EUR/JPY threatens seriously 132.00 area, being both in uptrend momentum and oversold

The EUR/JPY is trading nearly the 132.00 key zone the last hour, despite the fact that the US fiscal budget jitters continue to elevate. The cross did only made a mini pause after the release of the dismal factory data pertaining to the factory orders of the power horse of Germany. However, it soon pares its losses and is heading north gain, ready to cross again the resistance as of 132.00 area. Traders should bear into major consideration that from a technical perspective of view, the daily graph depicts clearly an uptrend momentum combined with an oversold momentum, which in plain English is very positive for the cross.

Technical Outlook on EUR/JPY

Greg Gibbs, FX Strategist at RBS feels that many investors may be starting to see an end to the Euroland crisis. Current levels of EUR/JPY provide a good entry level for long positions if you are prepared to bet on the US avoiding the worst case fiscal debt ceiling scenario.




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Oct 08,2013
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