Technical Talks..

[manu1713006157]

Hello Friends

 

Greetings to all the beloved and Great hearted memebers of this Forum. we all know the sharing sprite of the people here. and I also admit I got very valuable Tools and other materials from here as well.

 

Now the Big question is Did it Helped ? The answer could be yes and No Both. Yes it made our Job easier. But did it helped as a Trader.. "well probably Not"

 

why? what would I say. success in this field is more of Our own attitude. i.e. How we take those informations. How we applied them and how we managed ourself including our trade when things turn wrong. and also what we did when things were going Right. You know what I mean. I had read Long ago that two Good traders doing opposite things can still make money. It took me years to realise that It's True. Ok Now lets cut it down.. As I understand that we all know all these..so no point in repeating them.

 

 

I have always belived If there is 5 ways for doing a thing...choose the one which is most simple. so I'll be using very simple indicators and simple Language.

 

 

I'm Going to talk about technical build ups which have Good probabilities... especially Eur/Usd, and Gbp/Usd. an dof co about others too.

 

I'm also going to Listen from you guys about those setups. and your views.

 

 

so Lets proceed...

[manu1713006157]

Eur/usd: current 1.4330

 

Its pretty much clear now that we are heading in some major downtrend mode.

Looking at the monthly charts we can see those bear candle. Then again the rally which happened to be slightly Lower than the previous. Bad indication. Now I'm expecting that we will have about 2-3 more bear candles atleast. this means a Lot.. In other words we could be seeing two -three upcoming months when price will go down and down. However I want to see the price below 1.4250. for conformed downtrend (mid-term). being as pessimist

 

Lets Look at weekly:

I rememberd last sunday when I was Looking this chart.. It said Bulls, Bulls all the way. I would have not belived that things will change so fast. well this is technical all about.. when signals change..views have to be changed.

 

 

well now I would say that If this Bears have strength and if its Likely to last Longer... Price should not be Trading above 1.4500. or precisely 1.4525.. Means If this downtrend is genuine any Rally will not be able to push price above these Levels.

 

 

Looking at daily chart we still have room left till 1.4250, the maybe 1.4170. after these levels are reached.. a Rally is expected. I cannot say how much Up that Rally will Go.. as I will have to watch chart setups then. But yes that Rally should be below 1.4500.

 

 

 

Long term projection is 1.3150. Huh Too early to say.. right ? well I want to see price trading below 1.4250. and then see what Bulls did there. If everything is fine and If bearish pressure is really Genuine. we will definetly see 1.3150 (its in weekly pespective, so It will take its time)

 

 

cheers.

[manu1713006157]

Eur/Usd current: 1.4385

 

 

This is my Trade planns for Today and Tommrow:

 

 

Sell Limit: 1.4410

 

stops: 1.4440

 

Tp: 1.4290.

 

 

There is a great possibility that my stops would be Hit... maybe 1.4460 would have been Ok.Insted of 1.4440.

 

However the RR ratio is irresistible. So I just cannot Ignore It.

[manu1713006157]

Eur/usd: current: 1.4380

 

After 6Hr of ranging and execution... Price now Going its way. I mean my way. Good to see.. Lets see more.

[soundfx]

Hi manu,

 

One thing I've learned about the market is that it will always surprise you, so either of us could end up predicting the next big move :)

 

Looking on the Daily I see a move up from 23rd May to 7th June, then an almost exact 50% fib retracement.

 

Monthly has been bullish all year apart from May and Weekly is currently bullish (as were the last 3 weeks in May).

 

I would be going Long here if I was a longer term trader, target 1.4831 (close to the top of the previous significant high on 4th May). Alternatively a shorter term target would be around 1.4680 where we saw resistance on 7th and 8th June. Stops for either trade would be just below (10 or 20 pips) the most recent lows at around 1.4320 (aggressive) or just below the "psychological 00 level" at 1.4300.

 

Excellent R:R on those trades too :)

[manu1713006157]

Hi soundfx

 

Thanks for stoping By and posting your views.

 

Your analysis is quite Ok. and I used to have same view Just a week ago. Looking at Ma's and Adx on weekly/monthly. Its still Uptrend No doubt.(important thing is that Adx is still showing a lot of momentum and strength too) another Bullish sign.

 

My views has always been to catch the trend/thrust on those Longer term timeframes and then to Short or Long those rally/dip on smaller ones. making multiple trades till the trend Last.

 

I have posted my short views (mid-term) because I see something on monthly/weekly charts. On monthly there is a pattern forming of Lower High and Lower Low. and I expect it to go for another 2-3 candles atlest. Although its just a start. and then weekly charts... It shows another conformation for Bears. Last week close waas a bear candle, then the high marked (before the drop) is Lower High. we cannot Ignore this. (no doubt Long Term we are in Bulls, and this could simply be a retrace). But a gradual dip or retrace on monthly could mean a Lot. It could easily mean 1000-1500 pips.

 

I'm really very keen to see what the Bulls do now. If they are unable to push price above 1.4525/ weekly pivots mid-levels. This will make obvious then that the Bulls are lacking strength . And then I will start aggressive Shorts.

 

And of coz.. I will stick my views for 1.3150..

 

Things are building up... and its always a Gamble when they are fresh.

 

I respect your view and could understand what and why you are Bullish. However I want to see price trading above 1.4500/4525. which I think It won't. I mean less probability.

 

well Lets see.

[manu1713006157]

Eur/Usd 1.4455

 

My stops had been blown Out.. what a terrific start. Already -30 pips

[manu1713006157]

Eur/usd current 1.4410

 

Eur/usd made a test to 1.4500 and was down sharp after that... almost 100 pips till now. Since the early trade made me -30 I had too short from 1.4485 and now I could see some decent pips floating.

 

I'm Looking at 1.4375, 1.4350 Level... and expect some price action from here. Now one need to watch the forthcoming Rally...what the bulls do now. If they trade below 1.4500 then of coz..this will emphasis more on my mid-term downtrend. well the Hopes are still Alive.

 

The daily candle is already trading below pivots, It made a Lower High today (comparing previous candle) and the 4Hr candle has a downside break. This could be an early warning what the daily candle formation is seeking to day. so Although the whole day is still to come ..But we have already slight hint about how the daily candle will close ( I guess it will be a bear close Today)

 

ok Gauging now.

[soundfx]

Hi manu,

 

We know the longer term trend is up. On the Daily I can see a 1-2-3 formation suggesting plenty more upside possibly beyond the most recent swing high at around 1.4700 in the next few days. So, long is still a preferred direction and I wouldn't consider going short until the most recent swing low of 1.4320 is broken with a closed Daily candle.

 

The Daily candle showing as bearish now means nothing to me. Most candles start off in the opposite direction to which they close, also it's common for moves in the Asian session to be totally reversed in the UK and US sessions.

[manu1713006157]

Acctually we do have to see how this daily candle close... If its bear.. from tommrow ownward I'll start aggressive shorts. Hmm daily Lower High... along with a break on 4-Hr. thats a sexy setup. Although little early but it really tells that we will have a bear close today...most probably

 

and yes If 1.4500.. breaks... we will see till 1.4700 easily in such case

[manu1713006157]

Eur/usd: 1.4225

 

Early morning I Looked at Eur/Usd and I was pleased to see that its preparing for short. and I had planns for Tommrow, I even talked about this earlier.......But I didn't had an Idea that It will drop so much down Today Itself.

 

My earlier positions has been closed on 1.4357 my Tp. But I missed a Lot.

 

Damm I had a busy day today and was not able to monitor the market. whatever..... I will have to enter on pullbacks now... Let me think from where.

[manu1713006157]

Eur has been badly screwed up... It won't even be able to trade above 1.4350 for time being....

 

Bears are on fire. so I don't see much of retracement coming... so whats the point to enter on pullback. best would be leave for Today.

 

I'm placing a pending sellLimit at 1.4325. stopLoss 40 pips. If its executed Good.. else I will see what to do tommorw.. or maybe I'll sell the breakout If it donot gave a decent Pullback.

 

now the level to watch is 1.4350, Bulls won't break that. Frankly speaking I donot think any rally will bypass this If this downtrend is genuine. 1.4400 Hardly.

 

and what about 1.4500-- well thats yesterday story.. Lets not talk about that..

 

 

Cheers

[4xmeter]

Manu!

 

Brother! You were right all along! Great!

 

Sorry that you missed those pips!

 

I see a rebound upward at the 3950 level; It would break the 1.4525

 

The 3950 level would be one to checkout! If break this level then definitely the maximum down would be .3750 not .3150

 

What do you think?

 

Anyhow, thanks for your postings.

Edited June 15, 2011 by 4xmeter

[soundfx]

Great call manu :)

 

That was some drop !

 

With a strong plunge like that it's not even worth waiting for a daily close to confirm the change in bias to Short lol.

[manu1713006157]

Eur/usd current 1.4194

 

For some Reason.. the Intraday charts points that the price will be in the Range Today. Although the previous day we saw a vibrant drop. and no doubt it should continue.

 

the Intraday charts is Lacking momentum. Its just the asian session and the day has started yet,so saying anything now is not totally appropriate. And there is of coz a heavy probability that we might see another down plounge, as what happens generally.. a series of bear candles.

 

however I was talking about Intraday momentum which is not Looking Good. I think Today Eur/usd will be trapped in the Range 1.4260- 1.4140. Until be break the either side. so Today might just be one of those scalping day.... I won't open any new short until I see momentum on 30 mins- 1 Hr.

 

But I do see a trade setup forming.

 

SellLimit: 1.4255

 

stops: 1.4280

 

Tp: 1.3820, 1.3580

 

 

[ watch Out for 1.4130. Its going to give a very tuff time ]

[manu1713006157]

Dear 4xmeter

 

I was wondering what you did to calculated that 1.3950, because that is a key support. Bulls are going to take action there and will try to tank the price up. However I don't think that it will be very serious, after some price action--It should be able to plunge down more... Its just my view.. who knows bro.

 

acctually I'm Looking at 1.3820, and 1.3570. these levels could offer serious threat and Bulls will definetly Try to tank Up. Now how much up... I cannot say now as I will have to watch the setups them. If there will be enough momentum. the price will bypass 1.4525... and will test 1.4670. that might happen... However the Bearish pressure will still remain unbiased then. In other words... we will drop again from there. But really need to watch those corresponding setups which will form then for better comment.

 

I try to figure out the Range using pivots and then volume.. yeah we don't have volume for currencies, But we do have volume for Gold, us-index. and since currencies have high co-relation with them.. we get an Idea.

 

In a downtrend or uptrend we have different thrust of Bulls and Bears swing. every swing is assiociated with different sort of volumes. so the projection from one swing gets change in another attempt swing either low or High.. since the number of orders(open Interest) and volumes changes everytime. so the range or projections when calculated differs after every new activity.

 

Thanks 4xmeter for stoping by and putting your comments. I would Love to hear more of your views and inputs.....Its always better to talk and please do tell me how you calculated that 1.3950.. since it matches one of my key Numbers.

 

and Yes Soundfx.. yesterday it was a full entertainment day... but I was out. I jsut had the rapper without the chocolate... hahha... Well Lets wait for more. About Today..I have posted my view.. I really think it will be ranging whole day... we will have to short either from the top, and also be prepared to sell If breaks in the required direction.

 

cheers

[manu1713006157]

Eur/usd current 1.4209

 

Short: 1.4191

 

stops: 1.4230

 

Tp: 1.4060, 1.4040 somewhere

 

 

this is my take for today.. its a Bit risky. As the smaller timeframes 5/15 mins right now is showing sign of Bullish momentum. However the stops is reasonable.

 

All I rely on how strong the ressistance is 1.4220. (also happen to be Last significant High). but frankly speaking I'm not very confident about this trade. Bulls has got back in action, clearly visible in smaller tf's now (5/15 min). they are also showing momentum. I'm a bit worried But I can afford loosing 30/40 pips about 300/400 times. I'm ok with that.

 

lets see.

[ArtOfTrade]

Eur/usd current 1.4209

 

Short: 1.4191

 

stops: 1.4230

 

Tp: 1.4060, 1.4040 somewhere

 

 

this is my take for today.. its a Bit risky. As the smaller timeframes 5/15 mins right now is showing sign of Bullish momentum. However the stops is reasonable.

 

All I rely on how strong the ressistance is 1.4220. (also happen to be Last significant High). but frankly speaking I'm not very confident about this trade. Bulls has got back in action, clearly visible in smaller tf's now (5/15 min). they are also showing momentum. I'm a bit worried But I can afford loosing 30/40 pips about 300/400 times. I'm ok with that.

 

lets see.

 

I read your posting, I think you are OK in analysing market, but lack of patient to wait for confirmation to enter. When time to enter and you escape the opportunities based on your strategy, you let it go for tomorrow. Very cute.

 

If you can afford 10,000 ~ 16000 pips to loss, why don't you increase your stoploss to 80~100pips, then your chance of success is higher according to your limit order technique.

 

If you know how to wait for confirmation, then your stoploss can be about 30~60pips.

 

If you lack of confident and not clear, then don't trade.

 

Hope the good luck with you

Edited June 17, 2011 by ArtOfTrade

[manu1713006157]

If you can afford 10,000 ~ 16000 pips to loss, why don't you increase your stoploss to 80~100pips, then your chance of success is higher according to your limit order technique

 

Oh My God... I don't understand why I didn't thought of this earlier. Really I'm a very big ****ole.

 

Hey I have a better Idea. why Not simply place my stopLoss about 16000. This way It will never be hit... Not it coming 10 yrs atLeast.

 

This reminds me of the Good Old days when I started and I thought " wow.. Its so easy" This was my first reaction when I saw the Forex chart. I was very confident, and felt as the most smart butt. I could double my money a couple of time. Just Imagine what a confident Guy I was.

 

well but all lasted just for a week until I was no more innocent. because then I started Learning and you know what I'm doing that till now and will keep doing that....

 

Well friend this is not to put you down... I was just ragging up. don't take it personally. I appreciate you time you took to read what I use to write. and also I understand You had a reason for your statement. whatever You said You had a logic and it's very straightforward. I like that.

 

I prefer using picking up only those trades which gives me 1:3 RR. I cannot use 1:1 or even 2:1 because Nobody could survive with this. I repeat Nobody and believe me I know this. I think being very picky is the only element which kept me alive in this market, else I would have been wiped out Lot before.

 

and one thing more brother.. I heared a wise man saying once " Never chase a Bus, a Train, A Girl or market..... If you miss 1.. there is always another coming" so why care If some entry is missed.

 

thanks for your Input. and I know I still have to work a Lot... protecting my natural character. and would really Like to hear more from you... about anything.. ya. Thanks

 

 

some thought

 

"An Innocent has nothing to fear"

[ArtOfTrade]

Hi,

 

Not to argue. A picture is worth thousand words. Just show you a simple macd 12,26,9 with trendline confirmation. Regardless of i draw SnR, Fib...etc can avoid unnecessary entries.

 

 

1. Show you how easy to see confirmation of your trade in H1

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/27/tt1az.jpg//

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/27/tt1az.jpg/

 

 

 

2. Show you how to see Price Action in a 15min, why your short fail:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/151/tt2dd.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/151/tt2dd.jpg/

 

Note: You can find the suriDragon.pdf in this forum

 

 

I don't believe Great traders like Joe Dinapoli, Robert Miner ... etc, Dont do confirmation.

Edited June 19, 2011 by ArtOfTrade

[manu1713006157]

Monday:

Eur/usd current: 1.4226

 

 

This is my take for Today.

 

sell: 1.4226

 

stops: 1.4260

 

tp: 1.4140. 1.4100 (more shorts could be added after 1.4170)

 

after two days.. of marking Bulls candles, Today seems to be the day for bears.. when they are ready to strike back..

 

To be more conservative I will say the bears area..Only after 1.4170- 1.4160. I will be more sure about bears after this and will add more. However 1 trades Goes as above.

 

This is just an asian session... and commenting right now for the whole day is not appropriate. But as always I keep Looking signs for the forthcoming Hours. and when I see them I act.

 

Art of Trade.. I will have to study those images and the Dragon thing... will comment on that after I review them.

[ArtOfTrade]

Hi,

 

Show you something called "Hidden Divergence".

Once I saw this powerful "Hidden Divergence", I know the trend continuation is very high.

I probably may break my rule of waiting for macd cross or goto to lower time frame to get the entry faster and trade near the top at confluence area (FibR-76.4 & FibE 161.8 with SnR zone).

My entry will be higher than yours.

 

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/847/tt3e.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/847/tt3e.jpg/

Edited June 20, 2011 by ArtOfTrade

[manu1713006157]

Eur/usd: 1.4320

 

mid-term charts clearly showing Bullish bias. Right now I don't understand what to bet On.. should I still wait and hope for a Drop... or should I join the Bulls.. the mid level(pivot+R1)/2 1.4484 approxis approaching on weekly chart. And If price donot drop from here... then surely Bears has not much to do.. the Bulls will be in charge.

 

Looking at weekly and monthly candle formation.. downthrust is still underway.... So the consequence of Bears could not be ignored.. they might strike anytime. much of the market activity will depend on US- Housing price Realease on 21.

Looking at 4 Hr chart... I calculated the price projections..and its [ 1.4500, 1.4580, 1.4600]-- As per the doownthrust currently...Its says price should not Go below 1.4160, 1.4125. (based on 4Hr charts Reading)

 

whats bothering me the weekly anc monthly candles setup... It still says bear.

 

 

starting Last monday.. I lost about 104 pips and gain 110 pip. so almost at BE. This week I really need to make atleast two winning trades which will compensate for my both week work. Frankly speaking I'm not ready to Join Bulls.. Not until we see a clear Bull candle forming on weekly. (although mid-term charts pointed Bulls Long ago). I will wait and see the price action what is does on 1.4480- 1.4500 till then Out. If Bulls continue will wait for a dip...

However chances for upward projection 1.4500, 1.4580 remain stronger.. and price should not be trading below 1.4160, 1.4125. (Based on 4Hr charts).

 

But I really want to see what price did at 1.4480 nearby.

[manu1713006157]

Dear Art of Trade.

 

I see your charts quite clean and simple. In image 3. what are those green and yellow Lines. Is it some sort of conflusion..on those Levels.. or simple fibno. I have always believe in keeping things simple.. But I think you should add a momentum Indicator along with that macd default. It shows when the rally has strength. this current rally had momentum and strength... It went pass above inspite of the downtrend and those Reverse divergence signal.

 

I too use my set of indicators.. Just simple ones and they too were showing the same thing.. But then momentum... It was with Bulls at least in samller tf's ... thats why I wrote that I'm not very confident about my shorts.

 

well lets see tommrow.

[ArtOfTrade]

Dear Art of Trade.

 

I see your charts quite clean and simple. In image 3. what are those green and yellow Lines. Is it some sort of conflusion..on those Levels.. or simple fibno. I have always believe in keeping things simple.. But I think you should add a momentum Indicator along with that macd default. It shows when the rally has strength. this current rally had momentum and strength... It went pass above inspite of the downtrend and those Reverse divergence signal.

 

I too use my set of indicators.. Just simple ones and they too were showing the same thing.. But then momentum... It was with Bulls at least in samller tf's ... thats why I wrote that I'm not very confident about my shorts.

 

well lets see tommrow.

 

 

Here My 1 hour view, forgot to mention the candlestick confirmation - see the long leg doji stand on something together with left & right candle with almost the same ground.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/684/tt4m.jpg/

 

 

Here the 15min View - 2 dragons again.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/580/tt5i.jpg/

 

 

Show you a interesting Grid indicator shared by Skid-z on post #13.

http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/13596-Can-someone-please-edit-these-indies-to-work-with-5-digit-brokers?p=159212&highlight=GridFibRn#post159212

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/687/tt6k.jpg/

 

 

 

In the tt3.jpg, the yellow line was your short entry. The two green lines is somewhere my Short entry zone. In that zone, need to fine tune

in lower time frame to get better entry point. Can get 20~30pips stoploss with indicators. Otherwise may kick out easily.

Edited June 20, 2011 by ArtOfTrade