gadfly

Links replaced, post #15

Something for you trend traders.... Jeff Bierman - The Pros and Cons of Trend Indicators -6-3-21: [spoiler=]https://www.mediafire.com/file/ih8b4d9koofhrry

"I don't recommend using candlestick patterns exclusively to trade" No, not exclusively, but they do help - it's just that at first some were suggesting they are the "holy grail" - which they may have been a couple of hundred years ago if you were trading rice on the Japanese commodity exchange. 😉

"Any idea what happened to Augen's weekly option system?" I don't know what you're referring to, is that a class or what? But I think that he no longer allows anyone to sell his material - other than his books that is.

Jeff Augen Market Review -5-20-2021 Last week’s 298 point round trip for the S&P highlighted important links between volatility trading, options gamma and delta trading at key strikes, and support /resistance levels for major indexes. Inflationary fears ignited the drawdown that continued through Wednesday when the S&P bottomed out at the most heavily traded put strike (4050) in terms of net gamma. As the market touched this key support level, volume in the VXX ETF tripled as volatility traders rushed in to short the peak at $49.57. The term structure of volatility also reversed quickly after barely dipping into the negative range (-4% spot VIS versus September VIX future). The simple fact that volatility term structure never inverted steeply throughout the selloff was a sign that institutional investors were setting up for the next rally (large drawdowns often invert beyond -20% over a 3-month timespan). The reversal turned into a sharp rally Friday, driving the S&P up through a major gamma resistance level at 4150. This level first became important on Tuesday when the S&P traded around this strike throughout the day, opening at 4150 and closing at 4152. High volume on both the put and call side sharply increased the open interest at this strike, creating a price magnet. At the same time, trading intensified around the 4175 strike, paving the way for another brief rally. This week’s monthly expiration will set the trend for the next several weeks after institutional investors adjust their option portfolios around new strikes. We can gain some insight by comparing open interest for near-the-money puts and calls. At a delta of 0.20, open interest for S&P puts is approximately 13X that of calls for this week’s monthly expiration. This large distortion, created by the recent drawdown, will evaporate in Friday’s expiration. However, the same measurement still yields a surprisingly large put/call ratio of 4X for next month’s expiration. These unusual options market dynamics fit with a report from Goldman showing that its Prime Book was net sold with short sales outpacing longs 2.4 to 1. Info Tech led the trend with short selling reaching its highest level in more than 5 years. Whether this overwhelming imbalance will end in a correction or a short squeeze rally will depend heavily on this week’s expiration. Investors know that uncertainty regarding inflation is the driving force underneath these complex dynamics with the word “transitory” at the center of the discussion. The Fed believes that inflation will subside because the members know that the economy is currently propped up on a foundation of emergency pandemic relief payments that will soon end. The math is relatively simple. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.4% with 8.1 percentage points coming from consumer and government spending while the other categories subtracted 1.7 percentage points from the total. In summary, the U.S. is currently borrowing and/or printing 100% of its posted economic growth. Understanding the numbers and listening to statements from Fed officials leads to the inescapable conclusion that no action will be taken to slow the money supply growth until the Fed has been able to observe solid economic performance for a sustained period of time after the current emergency relief programs expire in September. It is also important to remember that the Fed’s most recent Financial Stability Report lists vaccine-resistant COVID variants as the greatest risk factor to the economy. That analysis is on target because new vaccine escape mutations continue surfacing around the world with no clear medical solution on the horizon. Financial markets are beginning to comprehend these dynamics which can be summed up as cost-driven inflation and an economy struggling to regain its footing at the top of the largest investment bubble on record.

I think there are already forum threads for all of the items you requested. I shared the Jeff Augen class (#6) here: /forum/for...request/34354-

Gee btul, he is the spitting image of his Dad, our new forum owner.

"The link does not contain any pdf file, only video." I have the videos too but no pdfs - they're probably just slides of the videos anyway.

Amy Meissner - Time Zone Option Strategy (5 videos with 5 pdf files) [spoiler=Part 1]https://www.mediafire.com/file/9ypo5vqafj2mpek [spoiler=Part 2]https://www.mediafire.com/file/bjeeflw7w0lkdo1

"I have started to download...." Don't bother, I will upload this.

This is a webinar or what?

Is "Origin" also a muppet? They tend to be hard of hearing.

Heck, I've been getting that message since I was an infant. 😞

Options 101, 201 and 301 Classes by Don Kaufman //theotrade.com/options-101-class/ [spoiler=101]http://www.mediafire.com/file/jzs9vpa5g0b22xf //theotrade.com/vertical-essentials/ [spoiler=201]http://www.mediafire.com/file/d6lg45x49qllab9 [spoiler=301]http://www.mediafire.com/file/wmjlxf7w343i6ya

Some use Relative Volume to do what logicgate talked about but I have not found that it provides an edge. As an example:

I just updated all the links in this thread.

Please see my post #16.

I still say that pastel colored print on a bright white background is a good recipe for eyestrain. Thanks....

There's a New Topic link: /search?searchJSON=%7B%22view%22%3A%22topic%22%2C%2 2unread_only%22%3A1%2C%22sort%22%3A%7B%22lastconte nt%22%3A%22desc%22%7D%2C%22exclude_type%22%3A%5B%2 2vBForum_PrivateMessage%22%5D%7D "I cannot find the thank or activity button" Looks like the Thanks button is now "Like," has a Thumbs Up icon next to it. The white page background is much too bright, I'd rather not have to wear sunglasses when I visit the forum, perhaps a cream color with darker blue print instead?

My links are not dead, as I explained in another thread, mediafire has discontinued the /? link abbreviation, you must replace it with /file/ For example: Jeff Bierman - Profiling Warren Buffett's Holdings -12-2-20 http://www.mediafire.com/?at7c8lkytecppv8 Now = http://www.mediafire.com/file/at7c8lkytecppv8

I have several of his older courses, circa 2010-2011: Advanced Iron Condor Class Calendar Workshop Get Trade Execution Like the Pros Long Term Strategies Class Manage By The Greeks Option Spread Bootcamp Volatility Class

ootl10, As I said in another thread: Please provide more details about what you share, i.e., the actual title and description of the course. People should not have to download it to find out what it is.

Well, he did call it a "mini" course, perhaps "micro" would be more accurate. :|

I'm having a few technical problems with posts: (1) Text is compressed to the left side of the post, i.e., the right-side margin is very wide. (2) If you try to edit a post, all the text disappears in the edit box. You'd have to go back a page, copy your original post text, then paste and edit it to submit it. P.S. - The aforementioned text compression did not occur in this subforum - weird.

Recent Webinars Two recent Jeff Augen Webinars.... Jeff Augen Trading Webinar: Bridging to Economic Growth -2-18-21 (107 minutes) https://www.mediafire.com/?en5ca75i771624f Topics Discussed: • Returning to pre-pandemic growth will require creating 500,000 jobs every month through the end of 2022 • Commodities versus the Dollar Index • Copper:Gold versus 10-year yield • Wednesday (2/17) expiration – shifting gamma levels near the closing bell (3 charts) • Overnight market decline following repo crisis prediction • NetPremium reveals money flowing to the put side of yesterday’s closing rally • March monthly expiration key gamma levels • Call volume explosion • Steepening yield curve • 10-year minus 2-year yield profile • Eurogold • Retail Sales and Producer Prices expanding at record levels signaling inflation (4 charts) • Case Shiller Home Prices versus Core CPI and Case Shiller Home Prices versus Owner Equivalent Rent (2 charts) • Recent day trading charts • Current Employment Statistics (CES) Net Birth-Death Adjustment details reveal 2.77 million jobs lost in January before seasonal adjustments and final calculations • Pfizer vaccine Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT) against key mutations present in the South African B.1.351 variant • 15-second chart + AutoTune beta indicator (overnight selloff) versus tuned 2_traces indicator (2 charts) • Extended 15-second chart + AutoTune beta indicator (overnight selloff) Jeff Augen Trading Webinar: Throwing Around Numbers -2-25-21 (130 minutes) https://www.mediafire.com/?g9fy3n706gib2xe Topics Discussed: • GDP growth forecasts skyrocket following record increase in producer prices • Returning to pre-pandemic growth will require creating 500,000 jobs every month through the end of 2022 • Long-term 3 line break/30 minute chart – indicator return to major Fibonacci level • AAPL leading the decline • Wednesday’s Dow and S&P 100 (rankings) • Dollar Index falls below 90 • Fed Funds rate history • Gold priced in constant dollars – 1970s inflation discussion • Real long-term yields / 30-year yield • Copper/gold versus 10-year yield • Total public debt as a percentage of GDP • Bond market betting on rate increases • Dec. Fed Funds futures - 16% probability of a rate hike • VIX term structure unusually steep leaving room for a near-month spike • Volatility of the VIX • QQQ and SPX gamma discussion • Contango Percent indicator versus QQQ • Recent day trading charts • Janssen COVID-19 vaccine results published in emergency use authorization request • Pfizer and Moderna stocks falling